Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com - page 1923.

KnCMiningOp

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how many levels is that eco-system? one? maybe two? before it has to get exchanged anyway?

unless it is full circle you can't look for a support there... only a place like SR really can say they keep it circulating at this stage (no forced taxes even)

i already gave the differences, smaller piles, many miners vs less miners bigger piles.. you have to look at technical analytics on exchanges about blasting through the bid like what happened last we fell to the 60's - if you dont understand it or believe it.. its ok. hedge or hedge not

As more and more business is done in BTC the less and less will need to be converted into USD. This isn't something that is going to happen overnight. This is something given enough time will happen if BTC is around for long enough that it will have it's own perceived value that is completely separate from its fiat value. I think that this is already happening and we are at the beginning stages of something awesome.

I don't agree that there will be less miners, how many group buy/mining pools are there outside of the two major exchanges? On BTCT and Bitfunder there must be a dozen at least. Utilizing the public funds/IPOs and also spreading those funds back to them via dividends and overall asset growth. This allows people who don't have thousands of dollars to spend on an ASIC to still participate in mining. Also how many USB Erupters has AM sold? How about all the other sub $500 mining projects everywhere: http://decentralizedhashing.com/bitcoin-mining-equipment-table/

DPoS

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Quote from: KnCMiningOp on July 23, 2013, 09:59:07 PM

Quote from: erk on July 23, 2013, 09:54:37 PM

Quote from: KnCMiningOp on July 23, 2013, 09:42:50 PM

I've been following this thread for a little while now and holy crap the FUD! Finally something I can relate to.

I agree with most of what both of you have said. The one part I don't agree with you 100% is the assumption that all ASIC miners will auto sell all their coins. I know I won't sell all of them, sure I might sell maybe 25-50% back to fiat until I get my money back. The rest I plan on holding and to think that all ASIC miners will instantly sell BTC to their choice of fiat is an assumption none of us can make, because we just don't know.

I too can't see why the introduction of ASICs would cause any more BTC sales each day than before, it's not like there will be anymore BTC actually produced each day. Miners have always had a huge investment in hardware to recoup, be it a farm of GPUs or ASICs, whatever holding/sale ratio they have been doing for years will probably continue.

Agreed and to add on further: We now have way more businesses that accept BTC. Which allows us not to have to convert to fiat as much as in the past. This is something that the GPU guys didn't have back then.

how many levels is that eco-system? one? maybe two? before it has to get exchanged anyway?

unless it is full circle you can't look for a support there... only a place like SR really can say they keep it circulating at this stage (no forced taxes even)

i already gave the differences, smaller piles, many miners vs less miners bigger piles.. you have to look at technical analytics on exchanges about blasting through the bid like what happened last we fell to the 60's - if you dont understand it or believe it.. its ok. hedge or hedge not

KnCMiningOp

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Quote from: erk on July 23, 2013, 09:54:37 PM

Quote from: KnCMiningOp on July 23, 2013, 09:42:50 PM

I've been following this thread for a little while now and holy crap the FUD! Finally something I can relate to.

I agree with most of what both of you have said. The one part I don't agree with you 100% is the assumption that all ASIC miners will auto sell all their coins. I know I won't sell all of them, sure I might sell maybe 25-50% back to fiat until I get my money back. The rest I plan on holding and to think that all ASIC miners will instantly sell BTC to their choice of fiat is an assumption none of us can make, because we just don't know.

I too can't see why the introduction of ASICs would cause any more BTC sales each day than before, it's not like there will be anymore BTC actually produced each day. Miners have always had a huge investment in hardware to recoup, be it a farm of GPUs or ASICs, whatever holding/sale ratio they have been doing for years will probably continue.

Agreed and to add on further: We now have way more businesses that accept BTC. Which allows us not to have to convert to fiat as much as in the past. This is something that the GPU guys didn't have back then.

erk

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Quote from: KnCMiningOp on July 23, 2013, 09:42:50 PM

I've been following this thread for a little while now and holy crap the FUD! Finally something I can relate to.

I agree with most of what both of you have said. The one part I don't agree with you 100% is the assumption that all ASIC miners will auto sell all their coins. I know I won't sell all of them, sure I might sell maybe 25-50% back to fiat until I get my money back. The rest I plan on holding and to think that all ASIC miners will instantly sell BTC to their choice of fiat is an assumption none of us can make, because we just don't know.

I too can't see why the introduction of ASICs would cause any more BTC sales each day than before, it's not like there will be anymore BTC actually produced each day. Miners have always had a huge investment in hardware to recoup, be it a farm of GPUs or ASICs, whatever holding/sale ratio they have been doing for years will probably continue.

KnCMiningOp

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Activity: 448

Merit: 250

Quote from: DPoS on July 23, 2013, 09:50:28 PM

Quote from: KnCMiningOp on July 23, 2013, 09:42:50 PM

I've been following this thread for a little while now and holy crap the FUD! Finally something I can relate to.

I agree with most of what both of you have said. The one part I don't agree with you 100% is the assumption that all ASIC miners will auto sell all their coins. I know I won't sell all of them, sure I might sell maybe 25-50% back to fiat until I get my money back. The rest I plan on holding and to think that all ASIC miners will instantly sell BTC to their choice of fiat is an assumption none of us can make, because we just don't know.

just pointing out that there is more of an inclination for that to happen this phase.. it seems we are in a more combative situation and animal spirits will reign

I myself have no incentive in selling if I see the price moving sideways or upwards. I think that a lot of people feel the same way. So unless you can guarantee that the price of BTC will fall when all these TH/s come online, I don't see how there is an inclination for it to happen this phase.

DPoS

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Activity: 462

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Quote from: KnCMiningOp on July 23, 2013, 09:42:50 PM

I've been following this thread for a little while now and holy crap the FUD! Finally something I can relate to.

I agree with most of what both of you have said. The one part I don't agree with you 100% is the assumption that all ASIC miners will auto sell all their coins. I know I won't sell all of them, sure I might sell maybe 25-50% back to fiat until I get my money back. The rest I plan on holding and to think that all ASIC miners will instantly sell BTC to their choice of fiat is an assumption none of us can make, because we just don't know.

just pointing out that there is more of an inclination for that to happen this phase.. it seems we are in a more combative situation and animal spirits will reign

KnCMiningOp

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Activity: 448

Merit: 250

Quote from: DPoS on July 23, 2013, 09:35:37 PM

Quote from: Ytterbium on July 23, 2013, 09:16:14 PM

Quote from: DPoS on July 23, 2013, 08:08:27 PM

I am still sticking with my prediction of a few months ago that there will be some real strain and dark days ahead for btc in general.. hopefully wash out all the weak hands and get rich quickers... if so I will buy up all the 'unprofitible' miners on firesale as btc goes down to sub $50

Look what happened when the first ASICs started coming online, the price spiked up to $100, and ultimately $250 (although I think past $100 it was bubble mania). That was Also around the same time that difficulty halved from 50 to 25.

What happened, GPU miners who weren't on the ASIC train started hoarding coins, knowing they'd never be able to make them back, and thus supply ceased up, causing a price meltup. I think the mining crunch was the major cause of the price increase, rather then anything globally, like bank issues in Cyprus. (again, until speculators saw the sudden rise, and bought in causing a bubble)

So yeah, if difficulty goes crazy high, miners will stop selling their bitcoin, and the price will have to go up. Which, ironically, will make mining profitable again.

that was a different landscape like you described in where the only big piles of btc where with those old timers who already had their ROI x1000 so they could hold. Now you have this other wave of chip makers & group buyers that took btc (not all , but plenty) that have to do a force exchange to pay fabs, etc to keep their deadlines. and then the second gothca is that many of the ASIC miners are going to need to get their ROI ASAP since they spent so much this turn.. the old prisoner's dilemma - since you have fewer people with larger piles which kill the bid in the exchanges will force each one to act before the other.

having more ways to use btc and also keeping it in its own ecosystem will counter act it. having the winkles try to dump on that ETF idea and more and more heat on SR won't help btc..

just many more weights to the downside in the next 6-8 months

I've been following this thread for a little while now and holy crap the FUD! Finally something I can relate to.

I agree with most of what both of you have said. The one part I don't agree with you 100% is the assumption that all ASIC miners will auto sell all their coins. I know I won't sell all of them, sure I might sell maybe 25-50% back to fiat until I get my money back. The rest I plan on holding and to think that all ASIC miners will instantly sell BTC to their choice of fiat is an assumption none of us can make, because we just don't know.

DPoS

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 250

Quote from: Ytterbium on July 23, 2013, 09:16:14 PM

Quote from: DPoS on July 23, 2013, 08:08:27 PM

I am still sticking with my prediction of a few months ago that there will be some real strain and dark days ahead for btc in general.. hopefully wash out all the weak hands and get rich quickers... if so I will buy up all the 'unprofitible' miners on firesale as btc goes down to sub $50

Look what happened when the first ASICs started coming online, the price spiked up to $100, and ultimately $250 (although I think past $100 it was bubble mania). That was Also around the same time that difficulty halved from 50 to 25.

What happened, GPU miners who weren't on the ASIC train started hoarding coins, knowing they'd never be able to make them back, and thus supply ceased up, causing a price meltup. I think the mining crunch was the major cause of the price increase, rather then anything globally, like bank issues in Cyprus. (again, until speculators saw the sudden rise, and bought in causing a bubble)

So yeah, if difficulty goes crazy high, miners will stop selling their bitcoin, and the price will have to go up. Which, ironically, will make mining profitable again.

that was a different landscape like you described in where the only big piles of btc where with those old timers who already had their ROI x1000 so they could hold. Now you have this other wave of chip makers & group buyers that took btc (not all , but plenty) that have to do a force exchange to pay fabs, etc to keep their deadlines. and then the second gothca is that many of the ASIC miners are going to need to get their ROI ASAP since they spent so much this turn.. the old prisoner's dilemma - since you have fewer people with larger piles which kill the bid in the exchanges will force each one to act before the other.

having more ways to use btc and also keeping it in its own ecosystem will counter act it. having the winkles try to dump on that ETF idea and more and more heat on SR won't help btc..

just many more weights to the downside in the next 6-8 months

Ytterbium

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Quote from: DPoS on July 23, 2013, 08:08:27 PM

I am still sticking with my prediction of a few months ago that there will be some real strain and dark days ahead for btc in general.. hopefully wash out all the weak hands and get rich quickers... if so I will buy up all the 'unprofitible' miners on firesale as btc goes down to sub $50

Look what happened when the first ASICs started coming online, the price spiked up to $100, and ultimately $250 (although I think past $100 it was bubble mania). That was Also around the same time that difficulty halved from 50 to 25.

What happened, GPU miners who weren't on the ASIC train started hoarding coins, knowing they'd never be able to make them back, and thus supply ceased up, causing a price meltup. I think the mining crunch was the major cause of the price increase, rather then anything globally, like bank issues in Cyprus. (again, until speculators saw the sudden rise, and bought in causing a bubble)

So yeah, if difficulty goes crazy high, miners will stop selling their bitcoin, and the price will have to go up. Which, ironically, will make mining profitable again.

shiunsai

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Quote from: canth on July 23, 2013, 08:26:20 PM

Quote from: shiunsai on July 23, 2013, 08:25:07 PM

With the hosting packages being released, is it safe to say we can go ahead and order a specific power supply?

I would not. They haven't released a PSU spec and there's no rush. I bet you can get one in 24 hours and you've got what, 40 days minimum? No need to rush.

very true, anything to make the waiting seem shorter.. heh.

DPoS

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Quote from: canth on July 23, 2013, 08:19:38 PM

So, I take it you're selling a large chunk or most of your BTC now, while you can get $80 or $90 for it? Afterall, why not - you'll be able to buy up both BTC and the miners at the supposed firesale that's coming.

I'm not saying that you're wrong (or right) - I just wonder if you're just talking or actually taking action.

yep - mostly cash in the exchanges since I made decent pull on the last run up. I would like to upgrade my Saturns, and it has nothing to do with knc, but there may just be a big firesale on ASIC miners come the winter.. so that is a decision to make by mid aug

knc's newsletter on the network is very telling if you read between the lines.. they really do have good intentions but there may just be too much from too many angles this winter no matter what.

longterm btc look very strong....

Loredo

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Quote from: DPoS on July 23, 2013, 08:08:27 PM

you all did read that they only had so much space to host right? so of course space becomes a premium.

A sale wouldn't be a sale unless Supplies Are Limited, So ACT NOW!!!

No dispute from me on your predictions of some rocks in the road ahead, though.

canth

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Quote from: shiunsai on July 23, 2013, 08:25:07 PM

With the hosting packages being released, is it safe to say we can go ahead and order a specific power supply?

I would not. They haven't released a PSU spec and there's no rush. I bet you can get one in 24 hours and you've got what, 40 days minimum? No need to rush.

shiunsai

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Activity: 759

Merit: 505

With the hosting packages being released, is it safe to say we can go ahead and order a specific power supply?

canth

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Quote from: DPoS on July 23, 2013, 08:08:27 PM

you all did read that they only had so much space to host right? so of course space becomes a premium. Just like when everyone hated on Friedcat's early prices then sat there slackjaw as the blades went for 60+btc a piece on auction

I am still sticking with my prediction of a few months ago that there will be some real strain and dark days ahead for btc in general.. hopefully wash out all the weak hands and get rich quickers... if so I will buy up all the 'unprofitible' miners on firesale as btc goes down to sub $50

hedge accordingly.. anyone who already made millions mining btc would be a fool to double down in this phase. If they hold back they can either buy when there is blood in the streets or be ahead of the game on the next gen while this chaotic early ASIC phase works itself out

So, I take it you're selling a large chunk or most of your BTC now, while you can get $80 or $90 for it? Afterall, why not - you'll be able to buy up both BTC and the miners at the supposed firesale that's coming.

I'm not saying that you're wrong (or right) - I just wonder if you're just talking or actually taking action.

canth

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Quote from: Loredo on July 23, 2013, 07:58:41 PM

Quote from: dwdoc on July 23, 2013, 07:38:08 PM

Anyway, looks like there are other cheaper local hosting options available if KNC does not change its arrangement.

The beauty of competition.

Personally, I hope KnC's hosting is a success; if makes sense for customers to have equipment in the hands of the providers. The prepayment model is so repulsive to me, though; there never seems to be recognition of the risk it entails and how it alters the vendor-customer relationship.

Keep in mind that KnC is not an ISP or hosting company. They're just getting into the business and they're going to need to commit to 12mo+ agreements with colo space, ISPs, etc. It's fine that you don't think this is worth the cost, just realize that there are plenty of us that have no problem with it.

DPoS

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Activity: 462

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you all did read that they only had so much space to host right? so of course space becomes a premium. Just like when everyone hated on Friedcat's early prices then sat there slackjaw as the blades went for 60+btc a piece on auction

I am still sticking with my prediction of a few months ago that there will be some real strain and dark days ahead for btc in general.. hopefully wash out all the weak hands and get rich quickers... if so I will buy up all the 'unprofitible' miners on firesale as btc goes down to sub $50

hedge accordingly.. anyone who already made millions mining btc would be a fool to double down in this phase. If they hold back they can either buy when there is blood in the streets or be ahead of the game on the next gen while this chaotic early ASIC phase works itself out

Loredo

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Quote from: dwdoc on July 23, 2013, 07:38:08 PM

Anyway, looks like there are other cheaper local hosting options available if KNC does not change its arrangement.

The beauty of competition.

Personally, I hope KnC's hosting is a success; if makes sense for customers to have equipment in the hands of the providers. The prepayment model is so repulsive to me, though; there never seems to be recognition of the risk it entails and how it alters the vendor-customer relationship.

Ytterbium

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I agree these hosting plans seem way over priced, almost half the cost of the machine itself. Bitcoin miners don't exactly require a lot of babysitting, early avalons required power cycling once in a while, but with newer hardware it shouldn't be an issue. Once it's configured you just plug it in and turn it on.

Plus, having access to their pool isn't really that big of a deal, 2% fee vs. a 3% fee at BTCguild or something? When you're paying hundreds a month to host? If the pool is too small run of bad luck could ruin their profitability over a difficulty period. Unless it's pure PPS or something.

dwdoc

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- - -Caveat Aleo- - -

One or two months prepaid as a deposit would be more reasonable. More customers would enroll so they would probably collect just as much. Anyway, looks like there are other cheaper local hosting options available if KNC does not change its arrangement.

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