Topic: Swedish ASIC miner company kncminer.com - page 1963. (Read 3049501 times)
Curious why some postings are called a FUD for a reason
at 150million diff. my mercury will still make me 30 bucks a day. thats pretty damn good to me.
I think people get greedy and want to scare others away...
Yep, and forecasting network rates and recovery rates has a whole lot in common with Zeno's Achilles Paradox. Those pesky assumptions and comparative statics.Ah, well, it's the weekend, and even the network knows it: it's down to 177, off a high of 280. Miller time.
[EDIT]: One other point, RE: FUD. The person being accused of that, IMO, simply holds the professional opinion that OrSoC, in pushing the limits of foundaries' process efficacy, has made a fundamental, maybe fatal, strategic design mistake.
That's not "the sky is falling" FUD bullshit. Maybe he'll be right, or maybe he'll be wrong. Anybody who's smart and has a dog in the ring will read that, and toss it into their own decision mix. Those who don't even want to hear of the possibility will shoot the messenger and call it FUD.
so everyone will be mining for a loss right?? is that how the FUD goes?
Assuming I did my math right, and on a Friday night that might be a big assumption, 17,500 USD costs around 175 BTC now, to return at a rate of 3.6 BTC per day or better - again, under my assumptions. That doesn't seem like a loss, particularly if they will host those Jupiters for a month for around 2 or 3 days recovery.Are you seeing it differently?
I think people get greedy and want to scare others away... i don't mind running these for a year at least, i mean you don't even have to do anything, just leave it running.
some people wont be happy unless they are making $40k a week or whatever they are dreaming about
so everyone will be mining for a loss right?? is that how the FUD goes?
Assuming I did my math right, and on a Friday night that might be a big assumption, 17,500 USD costs around 175 BTC now, to return at a rate of 3.6 BTC per day or better - again, under my assumptions. That doesn't seem like a loss, particularly if they will host those Jupiters for a month for around 2 or 3 days recovery.Are you seeing it differently?
I would not call this FUD - it'[150m diff ==> 1e+15 = 1PH hash] is an aggressive estimation of where difficulty will be in the course of 3.5 months. I for one believe it will likely be at 100m in September and that the 150m suggested by the end of Oct is possible.
So it's not that bad, really, if KnC delivers. 2 1/2 Jupiters give 1e+12 = 1TH for 17.5K USD. The nominal recovery rate against 1PH is 3.6 BTC per day. But, yeah, given that bitfury will bring on themselves, not counting their retail, around 200TH including AM and other's response to 100TH, and Avalon apparently has a ton-o-chips in Shenzen and the boards are ready when they ship, 1PH isn't exactly a fairy tale. In fact, some would say 1PH in October is conservative.
so everyone will be mining for a loss right?? is that how the FUD goes?
I've been in, and written for, the chip industry a very long time. I know exactly what I am talking about and the difference between "package" and "die".
You don't make a 3000mm2 package size for a TINY chip. Even if the actual chip die size is 1/4 the package size, that is a gigantic CPU. TSMC, GlobalFoundries, and UMC don't even let you make die sizes over 600mm2 without very good reasons and special provisions in your contracts. Why? because they cannot meet the yield goals they advertise at those sizes.
And you couldn't even google the correct die sizes for a P3 and P4, yet you stated them as "fact".
Yes, but this isn't one chip. It's a chip that is a collection of smaller sub-units, all hashing in parallel.You don't make a 3000mm2 package size for a TINY chip. Even if the actual chip die size is 1/4 the package size, that is a gigantic CPU. TSMC, GlobalFoundries, and UMC don't even let you make die sizes over 600mm2 without very good reasons and special provisions in your contracts. Why? because they cannot meet the yield goals they advertise at those sizes.
And you couldn't even google the correct die sizes for a P3 and P4, yet you stated them as "fact".
Whereas a CPU of that size might be ruined because it's a serial device, KNC is making a highly parallel device. They can maximize yield by making the sub-units pretty small, thus localizing any defects.
So, if you expect let's say a 70% defect rate, simply multiply the maximum "perfect" hash-rate of the chip by your expected defect rate to get your average hash-rate per total package.
In this case we expect 100 gh/s per chip. So if they're expecting 70% defect rate, the chips maximum theoretical hashing ability sans defects is more like ~142 gh/sec.
Seems pretty reasonable.
I would not call this FUD - it'[150m diff ==> 1e+15 = 1PH hash] is an aggressive estimation of where difficulty will be in the course of 3.5 months. I for one believe it will likely be at 100m in September and that the 150m suggested by the end of Oct is possible.
So it's not that bad, really, if KnC delivers. 2 1/2 Jupiters give 1e+12 = 1TH for 17.5K USD. The nominal recovery rate against 1PH is 3.6 BTC per day. But, yeah, given that bitfury will bring on themselves, not counting their retail, around 200TH including AM and other's response to 100TH, and Avalon apparently has a ton-o-chips in Shenzen and the boards are ready when they ship, 1PH isn't exactly a fairy tale. In fact, some would say 1PH in October is conservative.
Anyway, by the time these guys get this to market the ROI is going to be non-existant based upon current estimates for difficulty.
Oct delivery would be when difficulty is in the 150-250 million range. ANYTHING at all that delays these puppies, and you can forget any kind of return on your investment.
Oct delivery would be when difficulty is in the 150-250 million range. ANYTHING at all that delays these puppies, and you can forget any kind of return on your investment.
BS you are just trying to spread FUD in almost everyone of your posts in this thread, for starters the ASIC vendors have been rolling out far slower than they said they would be, so the difficulty projections are skewed, secondly a large volume of GPU miners may leave BTC, influenced by the BTC price which you can't predict.
Care to put your money where your mouth is? I've gut 3 BTC for you if difficulty is not at 150 mil by end of Oct.
Let me know if you are game, I have a feeling you are pretty much just a lot of talk and no show.
I am pretty sure you are a troll spreading FUD about this product which you seem to understand very little about, welcome to my ignore list.
I would not call this FUD - it's an aggressive estimation of where difficulty will be in the course of 3.5 months. I for one believe it will likely be at 100m in September and that the 150m suggested by the end of Oct is possible. That doesn't make the devices unprofitable but it certainly is a possibility, depending upon the price of BTC and the competition, some of which we know and others we don't. If there are any significant delays then yes, I believe it will be a problem for us and for KnC. At this point, everyone who has something on order from KnC believes that won't be the case, but it's certainly a possibility.
Anyway, by the time these guys get this to market the ROI is going to be non-existant based upon current estimates for difficulty.
Oct delivery would be when difficulty is in the 150-250 million range. ANYTHING at all that delays these puppies, and you can forget any kind of return on your investment.
Oct delivery would be when difficulty is in the 150-250 million range. ANYTHING at all that delays these puppies, and you can forget any kind of return on your investment.
BS you are just trying to spread FUD in almost everyone of your posts in this thread, for starters the ASIC vendors have been rolling out far slower than they said they would be, so the difficulty projections are skewed, secondly a large volume of GPU miners may leave BTC, influenced by the BTC price which you can't predict.
Care to put your money where your mouth is? I've gut 3 BTC for you if difficulty is not at 150 mil by end of Oct.
Let me know if you are game, I have a feeling you are pretty much just a lot of talk and no show.
I am pretty sure you are a troll spreading FUD about this product which you seem to understand very little about, welcome to my ignore list.
Yeah, thought so. All talk, no game.
Anyway, by the time these guys get this to market the ROI is going to be non-existant based upon current estimates for difficulty.
Oct delivery would be when difficulty is in the 150-250 million range. ANYTHING at all that delays these puppies, and you can forget any kind of return on your investment.
Oct delivery would be when difficulty is in the 150-250 million range. ANYTHING at all that delays these puppies, and you can forget any kind of return on your investment.
BS you are just trying to spread FUD in almost everyone of your posts in this thread, for starters the ASIC vendors have been rolling out far slower than they said they would be, so the difficulty projections are skewed, secondly a large volume of GPU miners may leave BTC, influenced by the BTC price which you can't predict.
Care to put your money where your mouth is? I've gut 3 BTC for you if difficulty is not at 150 mil by end of Oct.
Let me know if you are game, I have a feeling you are pretty much just a lot of talk and no show.
I am pretty sure you are a troll spreading FUD about this product which you seem to understand very little about, welcome to my ignore list.
Hmm.... let's see if kncminer has said anything lately.... nope, just people with too much time on their hands arguing about off topic shit.
+1
they JUST released an update yesterday
https://www.kncminer.com/news/news-23
Anyway, by the time these guys get this to market the ROI is going to be non-existant based upon current estimates for difficulty.
Oct delivery would be when difficulty is in the 150-250 million range. ANYTHING at all that delays these puppies, and you can forget any kind of return on your investment.
Oct delivery would be when difficulty is in the 150-250 million range. ANYTHING at all that delays these puppies, and you can forget any kind of return on your investment.
BS you are just trying to spread FUD in almost everyone of your posts in this thread, for starters the ASIC vendors have been rolling out far slower than they said they would be, so the difficulty projections are skewed, secondly a large volume of GPU miners may leave BTC, influenced by the BTC price which you can't predict.
Care to put your money where your mouth is? I've gut 3 BTC for you if difficulty is not at 150 mil by end of Oct.
Let me know if you are game, I have a feeling you are pretty much just a lot of talk and no show.
Anyway, by the time these guys get this to market the ROI is going to be non-existant based upon current estimates for difficulty.
Oct delivery would be when difficulty is in the 150-250 million range. ANYTHING at all that delays these puppies, and you can forget any kind of return on your investment.
Oct delivery would be when difficulty is in the 150-250 million range. ANYTHING at all that delays these puppies, and you can forget any kind of return on your investment.
BS you are just trying to spread FUD in almost everyone of your posts in this thread, for starters the ASIC vendors have been rolling out far slower than they said they would be, so the difficulty projections are skewed, secondly a large volume of GPU miners may leave BTC, influenced by the BTC price which you can't predict.
Oct delivery would be when difficulty is in the 150-250 million range. ANYTHING at all that delays these puppies, and you can forget any kind of return on your investment.
that is really a scary point
if for some reason the shipping will be delayed (x example 1 month) how deep could be the impact?
Anyway, by the time these guys get this to market the ROI is going to be non-existant based upon current estimates for difficulty.
Oct delivery would be when difficulty is in the 150-250 million range. ANYTHING at all that delays these puppies, and you can forget any kind of return on your investment.
Oct delivery would be when difficulty is in the 150-250 million range. ANYTHING at all that delays these puppies, and you can forget any kind of return on your investment.
XBOX-WII & PS3 CPU's are BGA soldered. Their DIE size are less than 15 & 17% of package size.
XBOX
http://pictures.xbox-scene.com/xbox360/cpu/CPU.jpg
XBOX
http://pictures.xbox-scene.com/xbox360/cpu/CPU.jpg
That's a 30-35% die vs. package size right there (the RAISED board is the "package" - the rectangle on it is the DIE).
bpduke knows what he's talking about, butthurt kncminer fanboys who blindly gave away their money beware.
I want to be clear that I WANT KNC to come to market. The more manufacturers the merrier and the better for all of us.
Just when we dig into the nuts and bolts, there are some things that really bug me.
1) Chip design appears to be huge - my main concern.
2) Chip has never been shown (ok, it's in manuf, but they have to have prototypes by now - you don't order up 1 mil chips unless you have validated the hardware)
3) Chip details like number of SHA256 "cores" has never been released.
All we have are some demos with FGPA hardware, nothing here.
Until I see more, my money goes behind chips we have actually seen: Avalon and Bitfury. BFL's business practices are so bad I'm marking them off my (personal) list.
That's good news for me anyway, less in line before my next purchase.
well i mean in general. im hoping they are staying tight lipped because they are on schedule or slightly ahead with the whole production.
please please please can we stop talking about die and package size. lets wait until we see some more specs or a picture first....
ANYWAY
im really hoping they are sandbagging us and making the units now. that would be a huge surprise if they delivered early.
ANYWAY
im really hoping they are sandbagging us and making the units now. that would be a huge surprise if they delivered early.
It takes two months to make a wafer, no sandbagging involved, and that's on top of how long it takes you to raise the funds first.
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