Topic: 🏈🏈 The American Football Discussion Thread 🏈🏈 - page 171. (Read 48626 times)

When san Francisco trade up to #3 there is absolutely no way they can not play that qb, and they are getting a qb.  That GM will be insta fired for trading away draft assets to pick up a player ypu aren't going to play.  If Jimmy stays this year its for a maximum of q year tops there is no doubt about that. 

What I hope will happen: Jimmy G stays with the Niners until retirement, stays healthy, wins multiple super bowls, and makes the 2021 draft and the #3 pick a forgotten and meaningless snippet in history.

What I fear will happen: The Niners will draft Mac Jones; he'll sit on the bench for a year while Jimmy G plays good enough to trade for a first round draft pick; Jones will compete for the starting job against some UFA promoted from the practice squad, and lose; the 49ers will go 4-9 (on their way to 4-13); Shanahan and Lynch will be fired; and it'll be a decade before we see another playoff berth.

If the right deal comes along but they are only going to take a rock solid deal and Patriots usual MO is to give away late round picks for vets and thats not gonna do it for Jimmy.  At #3 SF will probably get the 3rd qb off the board so there is a good chance they want Jimmy for the season and part ways next year.  If I had to guess, no would be my answer to that.

They are without a doubt diluting the quality of their product, over the short term this could give them some additional profits but it seems like a bad move for the health of the sport, it is similar to what we have now with the addition of two games during the wild card round, I watched the six games but instead of being exciting it was incredibly boring, especially the Bears game, so it is very unlikely that I'm going to watch all of the games during this next postseason, an additional regular-season game may not seem like a big deal but it is, the last Super Bowl was completely disappointing because the Chiefs OL was completely decimated and now there are higher chances this will happen during the playoffs again.

They already have renegotiated the broadcasting contracts for the next twelve seasons.  It was mandated by their Collective Bargaining Agreement that a contract had to be accepted by at least one major broadcasting network before they could have a 17^th game.  According to the article the contracts are worth $10 billion per year, but I don't know how that compares to the last contract.  I assume it's significantly more, since the contracts are usually for a minimum of three years, and most at least five.

It's a doomed recipe, in my humble opinion.  The games are already a chore to watch with so many commercial interruptions, and the commercials themselves seem to get more and more annoying.  This new broadcasting agreement isn't likely to move things in a positive direction.  There were only a few games that I sat down to watch live during this last season.  Most of the time I start a half-hour late, and fast-forward through the bullshit, get caught up by half-time, and do the same thing for the second half.  It seems like at some point the advertisers will get wise to this trend and stop paying so much for advertising.  But what do I know, maybe it's worth it to them?

Take the new ABC contract for example; they're paying $2.7 billion per year for 19 games per season, and two super bowls in the next 12 years.  Just taking averages, a football game broadcast is about 3 hours long, and only about 1 hour and 20 minutes is dedicated to the game or announcer chit-chat.  That leaves about 1 hour and 40 minutes for commercials.  Again, on average ABC is paying about $140 million per game.  Just to break even, they have to charge about $700k for each 30-second long advertising slot.  Just to BREAK EVEN!  Like most retailers they have to make at least a 30% margin to be profitable, so that means they have to charge, on average $1m per commercial...

So, next time you're paying your car insurance bill recall how many of those time slots were occupied by the company to whom you're writing that check. Makes you wonder.

I know that's most likely why they're doing it but I could never understand how exactly they're expecting it to work out. Renegotiate TV contracts? Are the advertisers actually going to pay more? For what exactly? Am I supposed to drink more beer than usual just because there is an extra NFL game?

It seems to me that it's a zero sum proposition, same money will get spread a bit thinner, there won't be hordes of new fans bringing new money, and existing fans may be more likely to skip one or two games because there will be more of those where top players are resting before playoffs etc.

NFL experts of this thread, is there a chance for Jimmy Garoppolo to return to the Patriots and reunite with Bill Belichik? I am quite certain Cam Newton will not be their starting quarterback if they want to play in the playoffs.

I speculate that Jimmy Garoppolo might have a better expectation to be NFL regular season MVP if he plays for the Patriots. 91.82 odds in sportsbet.io, more than 10x than an ICO from 2017 hehehe.

God damn Jets is right.  I'm sure you've all heard the news by now; they traded Sam Darnold to the Panthers.  It's absolutely certain they'll draft a QB now, and very likely they'll pick Wilson.  All the local professional talkers have the Niners picking Mac Jones at 3.  I'm not sure myself.  Jones wouldn't be a bad choice, but is he worth three years' worth of first-rounders?

---

Pre-season is reduced from 4 to 3 games, so the effective length of the season is about the same.  I think the league has been talking about this ever since the Patriots won all 16 regular season games in 2007.  The last thing the NFL wants is one team to dominate enough to have a "perfect season."  They've been trying to achieve "parity" in the effort to give each team an equal chances of winning the championship.  A 17^th game (a 5^th inter-conference one,) could have the desired effect. 

It might also help offset their steadily declining revenues, lol. 

All very good and solid points and I do not find a flaw in the argument you make, but I have two problems with this, I will let the first to be made by Hueristic.


We are talking about the Jets and everything is possible when it comes to them.

My second point is that the draft is a market just like this one and FOMO can take place, GMs can panic just as a trader or investor and I think there is the possibility teams will try to overreach and try to get their QB no matter the cost, lets see what imposes itself if reason or emotion.

---

And in something we knew was coming 17 regular-season games were approved by the owners a few days ago, this will inflate stats during the regular season and make way easier to break records imposed during the 16  regular-season games era while at the same time making it more difficult for good teams to be in good health during the post-season.


Source: https://www.nfl.com/news/nfl-season-to-feature-17-regular-season-games-per-team

I doubt it.  I'm even doubting that the Jets will draft a QB at #2, they have Sam Darnold, who's young and looks like he'll have a promising career.  It wouldn't make financial sense for the Jets to have two high-draft QBs on their roster.  If I was in the Jets position I would trade down and grab as many bargains as I can.  Build up the offensive line and add some depth.  If the Jets don't trade down I suspect Robert Salah will draft a break-out WR or TE.  That would be the smart thing to do.

Matt Ryan is aging, and I can see the Falcons wanting to plan for the future QB, so they may take a QB at #4.  But again, I think they have other pressing needs like an entire pass-defense, lol.

There are so many good QBs in this year's draft some are bound to fall to the lower first round, and many will be bargains in the latter rounds.  That's another reason I believe the 9ers have Wilson in mind with the trade they made.  It really wouldn't make sense for any of the others, including Lawrence, in my opinion.

Historically and statistically speaking a QB is the worst player to draft with the first over-all pick, or any high draft pick.  Tom Brady just put the nail in the coffin for first-round QB draftees.  It'll be decades before anyone can match his accomplishments and it's no guarantee that the one who does will have been a high draft-pick, or even a first-rounder.  The position requires so many intangible attributes to be successful.  Speed, athleticism, and intelligence are the easy metrics to assess, which is why more highly drafted wide receivers enjoy successful NFL careers than highly drafted QBs.  There's so much more that goes into being a good QB, and many of those attributes have yet to be defined, let alone metered.  

Think about the best QBs in the league right now; Aaron Rodgers should have been picked fist by the 49ers, but that fumbling dumbass Mike Nolan chose Alex Smith instead.  Brady was a sixth round pick, selected to carry water for the practice squad.  Mahomes was passed up by nine teams before KC chose him, and Trubisky was selected before him.  There's no rhyme or reason for it.  If you take (arguably) the two best QBs to ever play the game; Montana and Brady try to mimic what Walsh and Belichick did to make those choices...  Where would you start?  Both coaches reputedly said that it was dumb luck.

Agreed, to pay such a high price they need to be quite sure about who they are going to get and in my opinion such a high price can only be commanded by Wilson, I understand why Lawrence will be the first pick on the draft but just like last year to me it seemed as if Herbert was better than Burrow but Burrow was the pick, and something similar could happen in this draft as well.

Also the fact Wilson comes from BYU a college with a good story of QBs on the league and the same college where Steve Young came from, which has obvious ties with SF makes this and even more obvious choice for them, but at the end they will depend on what the NYJ do with their pick but I could see them picking Fields instead of Wilson and everyone walks away happy with their QB.

Do you think we will see 4 QBs picked with the first 4 draft picks? Atlanta is picking fourth and Matt Ryan is the most expensive QB this year and they are going through a rebuild anyway so it could be a good time to pick his replacement.

I don't know about that.  There's been plenty of talk of trading him, so I doubt that's the case.

Assuming the 49ers really are going to draft a QB I would keep Garoppolo until his contract expires after the 2022 season.  Draft a rookie and let him play under Garoppolo, next year maybe he competes for the starting job.  The 9ers' salary cap space is in decent shape, so there's no financial need to get rid of Garoppolo. He's been a good QB when he's healthy, and I really don't see a better option on the market.  A bird in hand.


I don't see the Patriots pursuing Garoppolo, not right now.  Things may change before the season begins, and wouldn't count out a late off-season trade.  But if things remain as they are today I think the Pats are better off drafting a prospect and keeping an affordable veteran on the roster for the next couple of years.

If I remember correctly, Jimmy G as a no-trade clause in his current contract with the 49ers.

This 3rd pick makes things really more interesting as before, Mac Jones really impressed me on the pro day in Alabama and could be a good choice for them since Trevor Lawrence should be picked by the Jags.

The 49ers might not trade Jimmy Garoppolo because they might not get Deshaun Watson after his lawsuits.

@morvillz7z. 49ers might pick someone like Justin Fields and if Garoppolo gets injured again and put Fields, they might discover their own Deshaun Watson hehehe.

Actually, I'm thinking it might be Zack Wilson.  Robert Salah (our former DC) has the number 2 pick with his new team, the Jets. Maybe ShanaLynch have some inside knowledge about Salah's plans.  That was an expensive trade, so I'm sure they're eying a quarterback.  If the Jets do take Wilson at #2, I like Lance but I HIGHLY doubt that Shanahan and Lynch would make such an expensive trade for anyone south of Wilson.

I hope it is Wilson, I link him better than Trevor Lawrence.  That would make up for the last 16 years of bitterness for not drafting Rodgers.

17-game regular season is a go:

"NFL Reportedly to Announce 17-Game Regular-Season Schedule 'This Week'"
source: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2938564-nfl-reportedly-to-announce-17-game-regular-season-schedule-this-week

Some key takeaways from the article:


In a nutshell, more money for the owners, casual fans will certainly approve of the added game, and for me an extra week of football to bet on.

I don't think players would dig the change as much, extra game they can get injured, especially tough for teams poised for deep playoff runs trying to keep their rosters healthy.

---

@DireWolfM14 

Which QB will the 49ers draft at No. 3? Do you have any preference between Justin Fields, Mac Jones, or maybe even Trey Lance?... and what are you doing to do with Garoppolo, trade him to the Patriots? 

Yeah they are very blessed to have the NFL cooperating with them like this. I really hope that the league will be a success and we might even see several European teams following to the league.
You're right, fortunately it's becoming more and more popular here in Germany and is finding more and more people interested.
But you can thank "ran Football", which has been broadcasting selected NFL games on free TV for a few years now. And its growing year by year.

The commissioner of the new league, Patrick Esume, has also always done a lot for it. He has, for example, hosted many games on ran Football and always looked for competent reinforcement.
For example, the former DE of the Colts, Björn Werner, followed him and has since been commentating on NFL games alongside Patrick Esume and, since last season, also on college football.
Really nice to see, especially since the first round of 2013 had to end his career way too early due to injuries.

That's very interesting.  Most of those teams share names with teams from the defunct NFL Europa.


I imagine there's some connection to the old league, the NFL is usually pretty stingy about naming rights.  Also interesting that six of the eight teams are from Germany, which is also reflective of the old NFL Europe league.  I know football is popular there, so maybe this league has a chance to succeed.

Some news for the upcoming debut-season of the European League of Football.
The last few days there have been many announcements via social media. Many commitments and announcements of teams that already existed at the time of NFL Europe.

These are the eight teams for the first season that have been official announced:
Frankfurt Galaxy
Hamburg Sea Devils
Stuttgart Scorpions
Barcelona Dragons
Wroclaw Panthers
Berlin Thunder
Cologne Centurions

The Hamburg Sea Devils, for example, have signed Kasim Edebali, one of the few German NFL players who has unfortunately been out of action for the last two years.
The new head coach could also prove himself in the NFL: Ted Daisher, Ex-Special Teams Coordinator for the Eagles, Browns and Raiders.

I think we can expect some interesting announcements in the next few days. If the interest exists I can gladly keep you up to date 
Most of the info I could find is unfortunately only on german social media channels, but it looks like the official website is already under construction. You can find it here: europeanleague.football