Topic: 🏈🏈 The American Football Discussion Thread 🏈🏈 - page 230. (Read 58709 times)

Giants to win vs Bengals i'm only betting on the Giants because no Joe Burrow and they're one win away from taking the lead in their division since they've beat Washington twice. Backing the Giants in my survivor pool as well, there's only 20+ of us left banking on a sneaky win so I could play the Browns in week 16 against the Jets.

I also went for this small side bet Rams, Chiefs, Packers, Saints to win and Over 33.5 @6.5. Looks like an okay multi a bit worried about the Chiefs game though.

Edit : Giants made me sweat when they put in McCoy their defense clutched it out though.  The side bet was so close from hitting after the Rams take advantage of the turnover.

Jake Paul vs. Nate Robinson last night, Kendall Hinton vs. Taysom Hill today, 2020 keeps delivering, i'm so ready!
Guess who snatched Hinton off the waiver wire and is going to run him at flex, boy better get me a touchdown 

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I'm liking the Bills, Giants and the Browns to win and have placed a couple of bets, nothing too crazy.

J.Allen 2+ pass TD + Bills ml total odds 1.98
Chargers have allowed to opposing QBs at least 2 pass TDs in their last three games, Josh Allen has passed for 2 or more TDs in 4 of their 5 home games this season.

N.Chubb Anytime Score + Browns ml total odds 2.05
Chubb was fantastic against the Eagles last week despite not scoring a TD, Jaguars have allowed at least one rushing TD in their last three games, Chubb is due a score.

W.Gallman 40+ rush yards + Giants over 18.5 pts + Giants ml total odds 1.96
Back-to-back divisional wins for the Giants keeping their hopes of making the PO alive but they need to win today, Burrow-less Bengals should not be much of a threat.  Gallman has rushed for over 40 yards (1+ td) for NYG in three consecutive games and they have bottom of the league Bengals in opponent rushing yards per game @136...easy!

Hehe, they have very good options still

Source: https://www.nfl.com/news/broncos-lock-rypien-bortles-not-allowed-to-play-in-week-12-qbs-were-evaluated-fo

I was looking forward to bet against the Saints today, but will probably still do so just for the fun of it. Wildcat ftw^^

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49ers will have to look for new practice facilities and a venue for their home games.

This is kind of getting out of hand and unfair competition to a certain extent by now. I watched Indiana vs Maryland yesterday in College football - the brother of Tua is QB at Maryland now - and Indiana was missing 14 players due to Covid and Maryland even 26 and couldn't practice properly. This is a big mess all in all

"Sources: Denver Broncos QBs ruled ineligible vs. New Orleans Saints"
https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30408624/sources-denver-broncos-qbs-ruled-ineligible-vs-new-orleans-saints

I don't think the league will postpone this one (but they should probably consider), so question is...who's playing QB for the Broncos then, like literally who? A tight end can sub in for LT/RT, or a running back lined up as a wideout sure/maybe, but without a QB idk, how is this going to work really, such a mess, isn't it?!

It's hard to stay up to date (fantasy/betting wise) with all these covid injuries popping almost every minute of every day, damn it.

I really liked the +3 Washington over Dallas, much more so than everything else, but here's what I like for tomorrow..thoughts?

*Titans +3 vs Indianapolis Colts
I'll happily take the Titans +3.  Even though they are on the road, I see them as a superior team to the Colts.  It looks as if AJ Brown will be playing too which is huge.  Not that it matters a ton but Jonathan Taylor has just been ruled out for the Colts

*Dolphins -7 vs Jets
Regardless of what QB ends up under center at the end of this game, I think Miami is sizably better than the Jets.

*Chiefs -3.5 over Bucs
Bucs are reeling right now, and Brady just ins't who Brady even was last year.  His passing percentage past 20 yards is extremely low, and their defense isn't as strong as once thought.  I think the Chiefs come out and take care of business.

To a lesser extent I like the Rams -6.5, Browns -7, and Cardinals -1.5

I've intentionally left the self-mod rules in this thread extremely relaxed, but what you did there is blatant spam.  Feel free to engage in the discussion, and I don't mind if you mention your projects as a part of that discussion, but please don't do that again.

Word. This is a good point actually and I was glossing over the details in my assessment. When I see teams with even just 1/5 full stadiums I have a positive psychological response because its just a trace of normality that lets me enjoy the game w/o thinking about covid. Perhaps its not cost effective for some stadiums to run at 1/5 capacity, and there's not much more that people can do right now to change that besides try hard not to get covid, lol.

Anyway.

I have a few semi-confident to confident picks this week, gonna put the ML for each team in at a parlay, but I also like the lines for these games, going by each team's overall ATS % wins:

Cleveland -7
Miami -7
Las Vegas -3

The one I feel least confident about is Miami because it comes down to whether Tagovailoa is starting QB or not. As of now he's listed as questionable with a thumb injury, but I'm thinking that he's gonna start.

I think it has actually gotten better in the last weeks with WAS/NYG improving a lot. Especially WAS is doing really good and who would have thought Alex Smith being the reason for that. He is the same old - kind of boring - game manager he always was, but it's just what they needed. It does not only help their offense, but maybe even more so their defense, which was already very good before. They now get way more rest with Smith being able to orchester long drives. Now it was just the Cowboys, but I was impressed with the Football Team yesterday.

The Giants progress is mainly due to the O-Line clicking better as a group, which brings me to this....


....and how important a good O-Line is. Cowboys probably had the best O-Line in the NFL for years and they invested heavily in it. Prescott is a product of that, as is Zeke - both have their qualities, but they are nowhere near as good as the 5 big guys made them look. Dallas sacrificed their defense for it and it worked out ok-ish for them. Now this O-Line is in shambles, but they still have their bad defense So this can't work out no more. Dalton at QB doesn't help, but everyone would struggle in Dallas atm.

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Well, there were quite some people at AT&T Stadium yesterday, but yes, I do still think that these empty-ish stadiums take away a good part of home field advantage. For NFL this is mainly the communication for the away team (fewer false start penalties f.e.), the refs being less biased and the cheering the home players don't get for their plays and which pumps them up. These young guys love the show and the attention they get

But there is still a home advantage imo, because it's not all the about crowd, which we were discussing here. Playing at home - even without spectators - you still have the advantage of not having to travel, staying in your usual environment, being familiar with the facilities; in general the feeling of being at home basically.

So guys. I think I placed my first ever NFL bets in my life. Or maybe I placed them before but it was totally for fun if I did, just like if I ever bet on curling or skiing or games I do not know the rules to;)

Anyway, it's just those betbuilder freebets I got from Sportsbet I went for the Cincinnati Bengals - New York Giants. Should have asked you guys first I guess;)

Money line - Giants (Game)
Total points - Over 37.5 (Game)
Money line - Giants (1st quarter)

I can. Dallas is simply awful this year. I mean their quarterback is Andy Dalton, who was fired from the NFL's worst team of my lifetime. Also, home field advantage is negligible this year for teams with empty stadiums (Ty pointed that out before the season started if memory serves). I was kind of rooting for Washington anyway. Hopefully they'll find a new name for next year's season!

what a horrendous two games today.  I can't believe the cowboys got annialated at home by Washington.  This nfc east is terrible.  If the eagles lose to Seattle on Monday night (which they should) and the giants beat the Bengals who are starting a practice squad quarterback then the giants will be in first place in week 12 with 4 wins.  Ba hahaha.  Crazy, but hey if there is any year it's would happen why not 2020 right.  😃

for player/team news i use either rotoworld or reddit:
https://www.rotoworld.com/sports/nfl/football
https://reddit.com/r/nfl/

my go-to place for stats and data is teamrankings, good alternatives are nfl.com or espn, pro-football-reference too:
https://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stats/
https://www.nfl.com/stats/player-stats/
https://www.espn.com/nfl/
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/

if you are into fantasy football and player props, id recommend fantasypros and fantasydata:
https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/
https://fantasydata.com/nfl

stats i look the most when quick comparing teams are:
Points per Game
Rushing Yards per Game
Passing Yards per Game
Opponent Points per Game
Opponent Yards per Game
Opponent Rushing Yards per Game
Penalty Yards per Game

i have extremely inconsistent results this year, either really good or very bad (for reference my previous bets in this thread). 
if someone else has some interesting sites not mentioned above, please do share.

There was a change in the game's schedule for Thursday?

In any case, yes Redskins go hehehe! When was the last time they reached the playoffs?

@morvillz7z. Where do you get your game statistics, news and other analysis? I want to learn how to not give more coins to the sportsbook hehehehe.

Also, what are the statistics that I should be studying first?

I'm so glad that the NFC East has a new team at the top and it's not the Eagles...yay, hope it stays that way until the end of the reg season.

Both overs hit today with some serious cushion, brutal 4th quarter for the Cowboys, McLaurin with the play of that day...crazy recovery which saved the TD and maybe the game. I was heavily backing the Washington Football Team to win in this one (1, 2, 3).

Can't wait for Sunday as we have some great matchups, Chiefs @ Tampa, and the battle for AFC South between the Colts and Titans.

He is young so I think he will recover completely from this but I really hope the Bengals put a good OL in front of the kid or this is going to keep happening, I do not want another Andrew Luck being wasted by their GM.


And speaking of wasted talent, personally I have never like one hit wonders in college, Haskins only saw action during two of his three years in college and was only the starter in one, to me that is too short of a time to be able to tell if a QB has what it needs to succeed at the professional level, but at the same time he has gone to an organization that is a complete mess, it does not even have a name right now that should tell us how much of a mess they are, it seems only the owner wanted him and the coaches did not and now they have a new coach that brought his own QB and Alex Smith miraculously came back, so his chances of seeing the field again this season are low if Smith can remain healthy, and if we add that his work ethic has been called into question by the coaches then this is not looking good for him.

My main bet is also the Texans I feel like the odds should be more favored after their win against the Patriots.

Also took these prop bets since sportsbet gave away a couple of free bets.

Akins had like 80 last game so covering 25yards wouldn't be an issue for him since he averages like 40-50 per game. The only games he went under 20 was against the Jags and Browns.
J. Akins 25+ Receiving yds (Game);Money line - Texans @2.4

McLaurin should hit 70 easily since he's averaging close to 90 in the past three games or so. Confident on Elliott getting one here if this becomes a high scoring game.
T. McLaurin 70+ Receiving yds (Game); E. Elliott Score anytime (Game)

Happy Thanksgiving everyone One of my favourite days every year, too bad we always get to see the Lions and Cowboys

For first game I will just go with Houston ML, since they usually beat the teams they are supposed to beat. And this Lions team is nothing special, especially with all the injuriy trouble they still have on top of Stafford not being 100% with his thumb. Houston isn't super healthy themselves, but they have been doing ok-ish lately and had a tough schedule so far this season. We had the same matchup on Thanksgiving in 2012; it was the first TG game for Houston ever and they won it 34-31 after OT - I hope this time it will be less nerve-wrecking. I also like the under, but it's meh to play that.

Second game is a bit trickier (at least for me), since both teams seem to have found their groove with new QB's. HC being around a FG in this divisional matchup looks about right and I will stay away pre-match, though my gut feeling tells me, that WAS will win this in the end with Alex Smith having nice stats since he took over.

^ I feel really bad for Joe Burrow.  Dude was absolutely balling out and on his way to a great career.  Not like it's over, but that was certainly a catastrophic injury.

Sucks complete ass about tomorrow nights game being cancelled between the Steelers and the Ravens.  I was planning to be that game but now I'm looking at the Washington Football Team and the Dallas Cowboys.  Right now Dallas is -3..I fully expect Washington to win this game, so i'll happily take +3 .

I agree that was a real good win for them.  At the end of the season that game might very well dictate who gets into the ayoffs and who doesn't.  Goff needed to be good in that particular game.  I dont watch him all that often but since they are usually one of the only later games I get to see them a lot on Red Zone.  He hasn't looked that good all year even with his 2 picks.  I picked him up for the week in fantasy too since I have Josh allen and thwy were off.  Thanks goff

Tuanigamanuolepola Tagovailoa.  I just love saying that name, but yeah, he's fun to watch.



The Raiders/Chiefs was a fun game to watch.  The Chiefs needed that game, a second loss to the Raiders could have playoff implications.  It's good to see the Raiders doing well, I've always like Jon Gruden.

I can't help but root for Goff, which is a difficult hurdle, but I agree he's not that exciting of a quarterback to watch.  He's got all the traits and he's actually fairly mobile, but with that offensive line he can work the pocket like the game plan calls for.  He out-Brady'd Brady.  That was a good win for them, congrats.