🏈🏈 The American Football Discussion Thread 🏈🏈 - page 233.

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Quote from: morvillz7z on November 02, 2020, 07:43:11 PM

Sounds good and gl!
What if Bucs take an early lead, Giants rush has to face one of the best rush defenses out there (allowing only 66 yards to opponents per game), meaning Jones has to throw the ball more. I've seen Bucs secondary give some big plays down the field, Bucs are also giving 225 passing yards per game, 271 vs. Raiders last week.
Anyway, i'm sure Jones won't get to 219! Grin

I have watched several Bucs games this year, difficult to believe I actually wrote that but this is 2020, and the offence has a tendency to start the games very slowly and they depend on the defence to give them a spark and that is when they take off, this happened against the chargers, packers and now the giants in which they did not scored a TD on the first half.

BTW what are your SB favourites at the moment? I am undecided, there are many good teams but I do not see dominant teams, they all seem to have some kind of vulnerability, even the steelers which are 7-0 have looked vulnerable and they could have easily lost one of last two games.

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Quote from: morvillz7z on November 03, 2020, 09:14:32 AM

Giants are not as bad as i thought they would be or what their record suggests, last 4 games decided by 3 or less points.
If only Daniel Jones could stay away from handing out picks where he could easily take the sack or throw it out of bounds, i mean silly mistakes.

Quote from: ralle14 on November 02, 2020, 05:21:07 PM

I haven't won a single prop bet but i'm confident in taking this one Daniel jones under 219 passing yards.

This was looking good but Jones had to ruin it with that final drive escaping two 4th downs. In all fairness he missed Slayton a couple of times for big yard plays. That final TD took down my final ticket, otherwise i would've been perfect on the night.

Gronk 25+ rec yards + Slayton 30+ rec yards + Shepard 25+ rec yards won
Brady 2+ pass TD + Jones 1+ TD won
Brady 230+ pass yards + U46.5 total points lost

Not bad. Once I seen the spread where it was it seemed suspiciously small, Giants needed another 5 minutes in this game to pull it out. They actually looked really good this week. A little better than the 1-8 record they have. Oh well a loss is a loss no matter how much by...

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Giants are not as bad as i thought they would be or what their record suggests, last 4 games decided by 3 or less points.
If only Daniel Jones could stay away from handing out picks where he could easily take the sack or throw it out of bounds, i mean silly mistakes.

Quote from: ralle14 on November 02, 2020, 05:21:07 PM

I haven't won a single prop bet but i'm confident in taking this one Daniel jones under 219 passing yards.

This was looking good but Jones had to ruin it with that final drive escaping two 4th downs. In all fairness he missed Slayton a couple of times for big yard plays. That final TD took down my final ticket, otherwise i would've been perfect on the night.

Gronk 25+ rec yards + Slayton 30+ rec yards + Shepard 25+ rec yards won
Brady 2+ pass TD + Jones 1+ TD won
Brady 230+ pass yards + U46.5 total points lost

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Wow this week was a crazy one...
I made some money betting on some props but the results were crazy!

I was on the Giants Spread +13, but made some small props that lost... I had Daniel Jones over 24.5 Rushing Yards, I got close but didnt quite get there....

Wanted to jump on the Under on Passing Yards but glad I didnt...

Lets see what Thursday gives us!

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Quote from: morvillz7z on November 02, 2020, 07:43:11 PM

Quote from: DireWolfM14 on November 01, 2020, 04:44:02 PM

Way too many upsets this morning for "safe" parlay. Sorry for steering you wrong, morvillz7z. Cry

Yeah, it's okay way too many upsets, i was still able to finish 3-3 on the weekend, so not that bad after all.
Chiefs covered their spread fairly easy, i also had Raiders ml which i forgot to post/share.
Your backup QB Mullens was able to save my last bet (Aiyuk total yards) outshaming Garoppolo who absolutely sucked in this one, hell if that 2-pt conversion wasn't inches shy, who knows...

Quote from: ralle14 on November 02, 2020, 05:21:07 PM

That Sunday night football between the Cowboys and Eagles was unbearable to watch.

Second this! If Wentz continues with those boneheaded plays, he might outperform Jameis Winston from last year, and just like him end without a job.

Quote from: ralle14 on November 02, 2020, 05:21:07 PM

Daniel jones under 219 passing yards

Sounds good and gl!
What if Bucs take an early lead, Giants rush has to face one of the best rush defenses out there (allowing only 66 yards to opponents per game), meaning Jones has to throw the ball more. I've seen Bucs secondary give some big plays down the field, Bucs are also giving 225 passing yards per game, 271 vs. Raiders last week.
Anyway, i'm sure Jones won't get to 219! Grin

1st quarter done and long way to go but when things look too good to be true sometimes they are (unless its the jets lol). If the spread would have been 14+ points I would have taken the bucs but when it was shortened into 10 points that made me worry.

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Quote from: DireWolfM14 on November 01, 2020, 04:44:02 PM

Way too many upsets this morning for "safe" parlay. Sorry for steering you wrong, morvillz7z. Cry

Yeah, it's okay way too many upsets, i was still able to finish 3-3 on the weekend, so not that bad after all.
Chiefs covered their spread fairly easy, i also had Raiders ml which i forgot to post/share.
Your backup QB Mullens was able to save my last bet (Aiyuk total yards) outshaming Garoppolo who absolutely sucked in this one, hell if that 2-pt conversion wasn't inches shy, who knows...

Quote from: ralle14 on November 02, 2020, 05:21:07 PM

That Sunday night football between the Cowboys and Eagles was unbearable to watch.

Second this! If Wentz continues with those boneheaded plays, he might outperform Jameis Winston from last year, and just like him end without a job.

Quote from: ralle14 on November 02, 2020, 05:21:07 PM

Daniel jones under 219 passing yards

Sounds good and gl!
What if Bucs take an early lead, Giants rush has to face one of the best rush defenses out there (allowing only 66 yards to opponents per game), meaning Jones has to throw the ball more. I've seen Bucs secondary give some big plays down the field, Bucs are also giving 225 passing yards per game, 271 vs. Raiders last week.
Anyway, i'm sure Jones won't get to 219! Grin

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That Sunday night football between the Cowboys and Eagles was unbearable to watch. Thankfully I don't have to endure another one now that i've already used them in both of my entries. Cheesy

I haven't won a single prop bet but i'm confident in taking this one Daniel jones under 219 passing yards. In the last 5 games his passing yard stats are (179,190,222,112,187) overall his stats for over 200 passing yards is 3-4 but I trust the Bucs defense to hold it below 200.

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It was a crazy Sunday with many dogs getting the win. I was so close to winning my parlay bet but the Ravens let me down. I had the Bengals to cover, Ravens ML and Colts ML. I was confident on the Ravens and Colts but was worried about the Bengals covering but the opposite happened which can happen in sports. Steelers 7-0 are looking very good right now.

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With how wierd yesterday was almkst a good pick taking the Giants tonight. The 10 point spread seems too easy for the Bucs to cover somethings up. 27-20 bucs win tonight, giants cover.

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Quote from: tyKiwanuka on November 01, 2020, 04:34:35 PM

Quote from: morvillz7z on November 01, 2020, 02:20:44 PM

Dolphins got 79 yds rec TD and 88 punt return TD in the span of two minutes in the second quarter, holy smokes! Shocked

Goff just threw another interception while i was typing, i did not see that coming, what a shitshow for LAR so far.

Yes, it was Miamis defense that won the game. Tua and his offense were really pathetic, middle Q4 they had like 154 total yards. Surely a bit lucky to have won this bet, but defense is part of the game as well and I have lost bets that way multiple times too Cheesy

To be fair, you cant blame the bad offensive on Tua alone...
He had some pristine passes that were just straight up dropped...
Yes Preston Im looking at you!

His first matchup against a Grade A Defense, I see lots of potential on Tua.

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Quote from: morvillz7z on November 01, 2020, 12:11:44 PM

Quote from: DireWolfM14 on October 31, 2020, 11:24:48 AM

Here's what I'm thinking for a parlay for this weekend;

Good luck with that 5 acca, i allowed myself to tail you here, i like all 5 picks! Cool

Way too many upsets this morning for "safe" parlay. Sorry for steering you wrong, morvillz7z. Cry

I put a small wager on it myself, but I guess the Bangles and the Vikings had other plans. Luckily I hedged a bet on one underdog that came through for me; I put an in-game bet on the Steelers when they were tied at 7-7. Got a decent return on that.

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Quote from: morvillz7z on November 01, 2020, 02:20:44 PM

Dolphins got 79 yds rec TD and 88 punt return TD in the span of two minutes in the second quarter, holy smokes! Shocked

Goff just threw another interception while i was typing, i did not see that coming, what a shitshow for LAR so far.

Yes, it was Miamis defense that won the game. Tua and his offense were really pathetic, middle Q4 they had like 154 total yards. Surely a bit lucky to have won this bet, but defense is part of the game as well and I have lost bets that way multiple times too Cheesy

Some surprising results odds-wise in early games (Bengals and Vikings) and BAL-PIT was really nice to watch. Some bad luck for the Ravens with the injuries to their O-Line - without those they would have won imo. But as above, injuries are also part of the game Wink

Now lets see what SF can do.....

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Dolphins got 79 yds rec TD and 88 punt return TD in the span of two minutes in the second quarter, holy smokes! Shocked

Goff just threw another interception while i was typing, i did not see that coming, what a shitshow for LAR so far.

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Quote from: DireWolfM14 on October 31, 2020, 11:24:48 AM

What do you guys think?

I like most of them except for the 49ers that match feels like a 50-50 to me even with the spread. Hope you win it though.

My multi for today is very similar to what you have, I got the Packers(-5.5) and Steelers(+3.5) both on the spread. I still can't forget that near loss from the Ravens Eagles game so I went with the Steelers spread.

For my week 9 survival picks I took the Eagles and the Bucs. The Eagles aren't the best but I doubt the Cowboys could keep it close now that two of their QBs are out.

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^I'm not high on Miami and Tua in this one for some reason, Rams (last 3) are ranked #2 in opponent rush yards per game and #5 in opp. pass yards per game, they also dominated a very good Bears defense in week 7. Tua got a few snaps vs. the Jets but against Aaron Donald it will be tough with or without tape on him, +3.5 spread looks better but i will still not take it, Dolphins are a hard pass for me this week.

What i have is Chargers ml parlayed with Packers ml, singles on Chiefs -20.5, looks crazy but Jets could be down 3 tds in the first quarter, i could see something like 43-7. A.J. Geen O4.5 receptions (avg 12 tgts in the last two games) and Aiyuk O58.5 receiving yards (Seahawks are dead last in opp. pass yards per game @368.7 on the year.

Quote from: DireWolfM14 on October 31, 2020, 11:24:48 AM

Here's what I'm thinking for a parlay for this weekend;

Good luck with that 5 acca, i allowed myself to tail you here, i like all 5 picks! Cool

Quote from: tyKiwanuka on October 31, 2020, 01:39:15 PM

Looking forward to BAL-PIT and SEA-SF, will be good games I think.

I also can't wait for those two matchups, will Steelers finally lose one?

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Quote from: tyKiwanuka on October 31, 2020, 01:39:15 PM

it looks safe, but you will very likely lose this and similar bets and not make any profits longterm.

Yeah, that's what I figured. From a statistical standpoint, the odds of getting all right are compounded by factors of the odds of getting each one right. it's definitely more risky than picking each of those results individually.

Quote from: vella85 on October 31, 2020, 05:28:21 PM

I think its ok if you are just playing for fun and trying to add some value.

And that's it really, I just want to have a little fun, and see if I can turn 1mBTC into ~9. Cheesy

Quote from: tyKiwanuka on October 31, 2020, 01:39:15 PM

And never bet on your favourite team, because you might be biased or just a fanboy Grin

Jk,

Hey now, I resemble that remark! Okay, maybe I'll remove the 9ers from my pick. With my luck I'll get all those picks except the 9ers will let me down.

Quote from: tyKiwanuka on November 01, 2020, 07:19:39 AM

I am going with the Dolphins ML today @2.60 Shocked

Tua will make his debut and though I don't know how he will do after his horrible injury, the Rams do not know as well and it's always difficult to play a QB, where there is no (NFL) tape available. Dolphins team will be pumped today and they are really doing well this season, which is a bit of a surprise to me. They are 3-3 and in their losses against Patriots/Bills/Seahawks they were competitive and in a position to win the game in Q4. Rams had a good start, but as we know they already played the whole NFC East, so it's a bit hard to judge where they really stand this season. I like to oppose west coast teams in early games at the east coast and the odds for Miami are too high here imo.

Looking forward to BAL-PIT and SEA-SF, will be good games I think. Odds-wise I think the market has done its job - I might jump on the 49ers inplay, since I think they have a very good shot at the W today, but pre-match odds have no value to me. Seattle, despite their good record, hasn't been super convincing, with a lot of tight games and SF seem to be back on track and they are a very good away team.

Good picks. I kind of like Miami for the win today also, but it's largely going to depend on "which" LA Rams show up. They've been hit and miss all year, and their record isn't showing how much trouble they've actually had. Miami with a handicap, might be a safe bet.

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I am going with the Dolphins ML today @2.60 Shocked

Tua will make his debut and though I don't know how he will do after his horrible injury, the Rams do not know as well and it's always difficult to play a QB, where there is no (NFL) tape available. Dolphins team will be pumped today and they are really doing well this season, which is a bit of a surprise to me. They are 3-3 and in their losses against Patriots/Bills/Seahawks they were competitive and in a position to win the game in Q4. Rams had a good start, but as we know they already played the whole NFC East, so it's a bit hard to judge where they really stand this season. I like to oppose west coast teams in early games at the east coast and the odds for Miami are too high here imo.

Looking forward to BAL-PIT and SEA-SF, will be good games I think. Odds-wise I think the market has done its job - I might jump on the 49ers inplay, since I think they have a very good shot at the W today, but pre-match odds have no value to me. Seattle, despite their good record, hasn't been super convincing, with a lot of tight games and SF seem to be back on track and they are a very good away team.

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Quote from: DireWolfM14 on October 31, 2020, 11:24:48 AM

Here's what I'm thinking for a parlay for this weekend;

Green Bay Packers hosts Minnesota Vikings
Winner: Green Bay Packers

Seattle Seahawks hosts San Francisco 49ers
Handicap: San Francisco 49ers (+4.5)

Baltimore Ravens hosts Pittsburgh Steelers
Handicap: Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.5)

Cincinnati Bengals hosts Tennessee Titans
Winner: Tennessee Titans

Chicago Bears hosts New Orleans Saints
Winner: New Orleans Saints

What do you guys think? Is picking 5 games for the parley a bit over the top?

I think its ok if you are just playing for fun and trying to add some value. I sometimes like to take big parlays with 7+ games but this year I haven't and just stuck with 3 game parlays and just try and find some value by adding at least one underdog team which has been working great so far. Parlays are always a big risk but the rewards can be high and I think they are fun to play. Good luck!

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Quote from: DireWolfM14 on October 31, 2020, 11:24:48 AM

What do you guys think? Is picking 5 games for the parley a bit over the top?

Depends on what you are trying to do or achieve Wink

If you just want to have some fun and spice up watching/following the games, then it's fine to make such a parlay. But don't expect to make any money with this - it looks safe, but you will very likely lose this and similar bets and not make any profits longterm.

Parlays are very good, if all your selections have value, because you also multiply the value with it. But in NFL there is not a lot of value to be found and I doubt you can find 5 valuable picks in NFL in any week (at least in the main markets ML/HC). And this is no offense, no one can imo, it's just super hard. Single bets are always better, slow and steady wins the race in betting

And never bet on your favourite team, because you might be biased or just a fanboy Grin

Jk, I did this as well with the Giants, but you create a lose-lose situation, where you lose the bet and are sad on top, because your team loses. You also create a win-win situation, but the pain of losing is way harder than the joy of winning imo.

Anway, good luck with that parlay, if you placed it already

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Here's what I'm thinking for a parlay for this weekend;

Green Bay Packers hosts Minnesota Vikings
Winner: Green Bay Packers

Seattle Seahawks hosts San Francisco 49ers
Handicap: San Francisco 49ers (+4.5)

Baltimore Ravens hosts Pittsburgh Steelers
Handicap: Pittsburgh Steelers (+4.5)

Cincinnati Bengals hosts Tennessee Titans
Winner: Tennessee Titans

Chicago Bears hosts New Orleans Saints
Winner: New Orleans Saints

What do you guys think? Is picking 5 games for the parley a bit over the top?

Topic: 🏈🏈 The American Football Discussion Thread 🏈🏈 - page 233. (Read 57592 times)