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Topic: 🏈🏈 The American Football Discussion Thread 🏈🏈 - page 245. (Read 57529 times)

legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
Cam Newton sux, that is all.
legendary
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1671
#birdgang
Blindly going with the Bills -6.5 as my first pick, (...)

Took that one as well now as already announced above. It's a divisional game, so high-ish HC is a bit meh, but I don't see the Jets going anywhere this season.

Putting a small bet on Washington ML (3.05) and the under 42.5 in that game too. That O-Line from the Eagles isn't very strong without Johnson/Brooks and that should play into the strength of WAS, plus they had two good games against PHI last season. There were loads of points scored in these two games, but I don't see this happening today.
My gut feeling says that we will see rather few points in general, since most teams will be rusty due to short preparation time and they haven't played competitive football for ages. Defensively this shouldn't be that much of a problem, but offensively you have to be in sync to march down the field, it's just a more sophisticated system. Lets see Roll Eyes
legendary
Activity: 3374
Merit: 1922
Shuffle.com
Blindly going with the Bills -6.5 as my first pick, my initial plan was to go on the Seahawks but I feel like it's a trap.

I also have them locked in on nitrogen's free survivor pool. Thinking of buying a few entries later since i've missed the other free pools.
hero member
Activity: 2884
Merit: 794
I am terrible at Fantasy Football!!!
Who is stopping Chiefs now that they have a running game? Edwards-Helaire looks great and put in that offense with this QB, he will be virtually impossible to stop. Chiefs with 34 carries...haha  Their other rookie (4th rounder) L'Jarius Sneed with a pick and very good first impressions on defense.
KC had the best roster during the previous two seasons and it seem this is going to be the third season in a row in which this will be true, if I am being honest one of the main reasons NE beat KC at Arrowhead Stadium on the AFC championship game during the 2018 season was because Kareem Hunt was caught on camera hitting a woman and KC had no option but to cut him, because as far as I remember KC also had a great run game during that season but with Kareem Hunt out they became even more dependent on Mahomes and his magic.

This was not a problem during the regular season but when it came to the playoffs they lacked that extra threat of the running game which allowed NE to nullify them during the first half and with a little bit of luck win that difficult game.

So if you think about it KC instead of looking to win their second SB they could have been looking for the third SB since I have no doubt in my mind the real SB of the 2018 season was the NE at KC AFC championship game and whoever won that game would have beaten either LA or NO.
legendary
Activity: 2212
Merit: 2061
Join the world-leading crypto sportsbook NOW!
^A.J. Green is probably the riskiest pick of em' all, rookie QB by his side, and this:

Quote
Green didn’t play a single snap last season after getting hurt at the end of training camp with one year left on his contract.
Cincinnati then slapped the franchise tag on Green this offseason, and he didn’t practice during camp.
Wednesday was his first registered full team practice since 2018.
source: https://www.rotoworld.com/article/start-em-or-sit-em/week-1-start-em-or-sit-em-4

I have Edelman also on the bench, guess i have to go with him then, vs Dolphins, a team they lost in the last game of last season that cost them playoff bye week.
Besides they don't have any other prominent receivers, he should be able to get 80+ yards and 1td.
Edelman it is!  Smiley

legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
Who is stopping Chiefs now that they have a running game? Edwards-Helaire looks great and put in that offense with this QB, he will be virtually impossible to stop. Chiefs with 34 carries...haha  Their other rookie (4th rounder) L'Jarius Sneed with a pick and very good first impressions on defense.

Texans didn't do well, no deep threats now without Hopkins, Fuller used to get open all the time when opposing teams double Hopkins, idk their passing game could struggle, it will be an adjustment period for Watson with just Fuller and new additions Cooks and Cobb. At least David Johnson looked alright, he may have a bounce back year?!

I know we couldn't set up a fantasy league this year but i ended up joining three, 2x PPR and 1x half PPR  Cheesy
Have a big question ahead of weekend matches who do you start at FLEX (ppr league):

AJ Green vs LAC,  M.Mack @ JAX, J.Brown vs NYJ, or H.Renfrow @ CAR? I'm trying to avoid a major bust here...leaning towards Brown
Rest of my squad: QB Allen, RBs Conner/Barkley, WRs Lockett/McLaurin, and TE Kittle


PPR, AJ Green I would guess.
legendary
Activity: 2212
Merit: 2061
Join the world-leading crypto sportsbook NOW!
Who is stopping Chiefs now that they have a running game? Edwards-Helaire looks great and put in that offense with this QB, he will be virtually impossible to stop. Chiefs with 34 carries...haha  Their other rookie (4th rounder) L'Jarius Sneed with a pick and very good first impressions on defense.

Texans didn't do well, no deep threats now without Hopkins, Fuller used to get open all the time when opposing teams double Hopkins, idk their passing game could struggle, it will be an adjustment period for Watson with just Fuller and new additions Cooks and Cobb. At least David Johnson looked alright, he may have a bounce back year?!

I know we couldn't set up a fantasy league this year but i ended up joining three, 2x PPR and 1x half PPR  Cheesy
Have a big question ahead of weekend matches who do you start at FLEX (ppr league):

AJ Green vs LAC,  M.Mack @ JAX, J.Brown vs NYJ, or H.Renfrow @ CAR? I'm trying to avoid a major bust here...leaning towards Brown
Rest of my squad: QB Allen, RBs Conner/Barkley, WRs Lockett/McLaurin, and TE Kittle
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
They are also owned by Calvin Ayre whom I'm trying to boycott on principle, lol.

I can certainly get behind this sentiment.
legendary
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1671
#birdgang
Do you have any experience or words of caution about them?

No, I never played there Smiley For some reason their site doesn't attract me and they are all the same nowadays more or less.

I wouldn't overthink things. Just make a small deposit to maybe FJ/Stake, play a little and see if you like it, you can always deposit more, costs just some tx fees. If you don't like it, just withdraw (if there is anything left Wink ) and deposit to betonline/Bovada/bookmaker, where you'll then get KYCed sooner or later for a withdrawal. You don't have to choose one bookmaker now and play there for the rest of your life, just check some out and see which one suits your needs the best. Deposits/withdrawal are super fast and cheap these days, so no problem in hopping around a bit^^



I have played some outright bets to spice things up a bit for the upcoming season. Not expecting to get anything in return, it's more for fun and with small money. All regular season wins:

Cardinals over 7.5 @1.84 (they had 5 wins last season and I expect them to improve further, they have one of the easiest schedules with Washington, Lions, Panthers, Jets, Dolphins, Patriots (sorry Pats fans^^), Giants, Rams²)
Bills over 9 @1.87 (Easy division this year, kept most of their players, had 10 last year)
Carolina under 5.5 @2.21 (not expecting anything from them this season and 6 is a lot, when you are likely to go 0-6 in your division already)
Raiders over 7.5 @2.04 (I think Raiders will be good this season, don't ask me why)
Vikings over 9 @2.13 (They will win NFC North imo, last season 10 wins and they will be better this season overall)
Patriots under 9 @1.62 (so many players opted out, no Brady, getting 10 wins will be super hard, 9 is a push then, but I am expecting less)
Giants over 6 @1.84 (fanboy, lol)
legendary
Activity: 2856
Merit: 1519
Thanks for the suggestions. For several years I used NitrogenSports but in the last year or so I've noticed an uptick in complaints about them... Do you have any experience or words of caution about them?

I don't have an account here (geo-blocked), but it's an established and trusted book:

https://www.bovada.lv

Right, I took a thorough look into Bovada. While they are highly reputable and won't run off with anybody's money, from what I gather they are very, very slow... Like, it could take days for them to process a bitcoin withdrawal. They are also owned by Calvin Ayre whom I'm trying to boycott on principle, lol.

Doesn't Bovada immediately KYC you? Their withdrawals take days, I don't mind waiting if they won't immediately request documents. Stake apparently is opening up NFL betting, -400 odds on the Chiefs is free cash. Might use them.
legendary
Activity: 3010
Merit: 8114
Thanks for the suggestions. For several years I used NitrogenSports but in the last year or so I've noticed an uptick in complaints about them... Do you have any experience or words of caution about them?

I don't have an account here (geo-blocked), but it's an established and trusted book:

https://www.bovada.lv

Right, I took a thorough look into Bovada. While they are highly reputable and won't run off with anybody's money, from what I gather they are very, very slow... Like, it could take days for them to process a bitcoin withdrawal. They are also owned by Calvin Ayre whom I'm trying to boycott on principle, lol.
legendary
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1671
#birdgang
I don't mind the idea of KYC if its a reputable operation. I would prefer one where they don't ask it from you up front and that has a solid history for paying out its customers. That's about all I ask.

I have accounts in these traditional bookmakers and never experienced any issues:

https://www.bookmaker.eu/
You will not have to do KYC immediately imo, but when you withdraw for the first time. They accept BTC, but you will bet in USD. US customers from all states accepted.

https://www.betonline.ag/
See above. In addition they have lots of special markets and bets for NFL for example, which lacks a bit in bookmaker.eu for my liking.

I don't have an account here (geo-blocked), but it's an established and trusted book:

https://www.bovada.lv

-

I guess you know most of the crypto books, since they advertise here in this forum Wink FJ is maybe my favourite because of the very nice UI and general smoothness when navigating. Stake is nice as well, though the site is a bit annoying/weary/slow.



ESPN ran it's annual simulation and the Chiefs will win the SB again - this time against the Cowboys Grin Brady will lead the Bucs into NFC Championship game.....
legendary
Activity: 3010
Merit: 8114
Interesting stats about the fan capacities. It will be interesting to see if the stadiums that allow more people end up giving their home teams a slight advantage

Not American obviously, but what are you looking for ? Crypto or fiat book ? Would you be willing to do KYC ?

5dimes is maybe something you could check out. They have BTC payments, but KYC afaik.

Yeah just BTC or crypto sportsbook. Apparently 5dimes is closing its doors to US customers starting Sept 21st, at least temporarily:

https://sportshandle.com/5dimes-sportsbook-offshore-legal/

I don't mind the idea of KYC if its a reputable operation. I would prefer one where they don't ask it from you up front and that has a solid history for paying out its customers. That's about all I ask.

Also trying to figure out if I should just buy some sort of NFL package as I'd like to watch more games from home this year. Seeing as how that's pretty much the only option at the moment.
legendary
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1671
#birdgang
I'm thinking Houston @ +9.5 might be a good pick if I can get it at that. If its only 9 by the time I want to place a bet, I probably won't take it.

They definitely had good success against KC last season and if not collapsing after Q1 in the PO game, who knows how far they could have gotten. I would think twice about any bet on Houston though. Chiefs will basically play with the same team as last season and I expect them to be super sharp right from the get go because of this. Other teams will struggle a lot more with this limited preparation. Houston lost Hopkins and added Cobb/Cooks, plus they have a new RB in Johnson - I am not sure, if they will click offensively in this game, where you would expect them having to put up some more points to beat this HC.

I have a general sportsbook question for Americans: where's a good place to open an account?

Not American obviously, but what are you looking for ? Crypto or fiat book ? Would you be willing to do KYC ?

5dimes is maybe something you could check out. They have BTC payments, but KYC afaik.



German tabloid Bild has some overview regarding spectators. Most teams will play behind closed doors for the start and first weeks, but there are some exceptions:

Browns: Up to 6,000 vs Bengals and Washington
Bengals: Up to 6,000 vs Jaguars and Browns
Ravens
Steelers


Cowboys: 50% capacity allowed
Giants
Washington
Eagles

Colts: Up to 15,000 (25% capacity)
Jaguars: 25% capacity allowed
Titans
Texans


Chiefs: 22% capacity (~16,000)
Broncos
Raiders
Chargers


Dolphins: Up to 13,000 for home opener against Bills
Patriots
Jets
Bills


Buccaneers: ~14,000 allowed
Saints
Falcons
Panthers


Seattle
49ers
Rams
Cardinals


Bears
Packers
Lions
Vikings
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
Sorry guys, I have just been slammed lately and have fallen behind on tons of stuff.

If someone wants to step up and run I'll play but I can't sink the time right now.

Maybe we should have a late one that starts like week 5,

Without pre season its impossible to make any decisions anyway.
legendary
Activity: 3010
Merit: 8114
At first glance I only like Bills (HC -6), some more reasearch needed for the rest. Raiders look good as well odds-wise imo, but early game on the road is always a bit meh with them. Super excited for Saints vs Bucs Cool

I'm thinking Houston @ +9.5 might be a good pick if I can get it at that. If its only 9 by the time I want to place a bet, I probably won't take it.

I have a general sportsbook question for Americans: where's a good place to open an account?
legendary
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1671
#birdgang
Looks like we won't have FF for this season, but maybe next season then Smiley

BUT, in a few days from now, we have something to do again on boring Sundays (for those who don't poker^^), so here are the games for week 1 with average odds taken from oddsportal:

Kansas City Chiefs - Houston Texans 1,22 4,33
Atlanta Falcons - Seattle Seahawks 2,04 1,80
Baltimore Ravens - Cleveland Browns 1,27 3,86
Buffalo Bills - New York Jets 1,34   3,30
Carolina Panthers - Las Vegas Raiders 2,34 1,62
Detroit Lions - Chicago Bears 1,63 2,31
Jacksonville Jaguars - Indianapolis Colts 3,94 1,26
Minnesota Vikings - Green Bay Packers   1,70 2,18
New England Patriots - Miami Dolphins 1,34 3,31
Washington - Philadelphia Eagles 3,22 1,35
Cincinnati Bengals - Los Angeles Chargers 2,51 1,54
New Orleans Saints - Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1,55   2,48
San Francisco 49ers - Arizona Cardinals 1,31 3,52
Los Angeles Rams - Dallas Cowboys 2,21 1,68
New York Giants - Pittsburgh Steelers 2,78 1,45
Denver Broncos - Tennessee Titans 1,83 2,00

At first glance I only like Bills (HC -6), some more reasearch needed for the rest. Raiders look good as well odds-wise imo, but early game on the road is always a bit meh with them. Super excited for Saints vs Bucs Cool
legendary
Activity: 3836
Merit: 4969
Doomed to see the future and unable to prevent it
I am fine with any reasonable buy-in and have no preferences for the rules, since I don't know the differences between them, lol. Any draft time fine with me as well.

just mind the difference when you make your draft list. non-ppr = no points awarded for receptions. WRs take a hit, RBs have more value early on (except maybe scat backs who mostly catch passes---they are more valuable in PPR), etc. as far as receiving stats go, yards and touchdowns matter, that's it.

so is Hueristic running this then? Smiley

Actually PPR is extra points per reception, WR and Rb's already get points when making yards. PPR is just so the odds makers can determine average targets and that is why the algorithms are so good at choosing ppr leagues. FF was originally Standard and ppr was added and pushed by those that like to set the books. Basically it takes alot of the guess work out.


If no-one else is interested then I guess I could set it up.

legendary
Activity: 1652
Merit: 1483
I am fine with any reasonable buy-in and have no preferences for the rules, since I don't know the differences between them, lol. Any draft time fine with me as well.

just mind the difference when you make your draft list. non-ppr = no points awarded for receptions. WRs take a hit, RBs have more value early on (except maybe scat backs who mostly catch passes---they are more valuable in PPR), etc. as far as receiving stats go, yards and touchdowns matter, that's it.

so is Hueristic running this then? Smiley
legendary
Activity: 1736
Merit: 1671
#birdgang
I am still interested as well, but I think we have too few participants (?). And we need someone to take the initiative and set things up, so we can advertise a bit more with clear rules, buy-in, link to join etc. Any volunteers ? Smiley

I am fine with any reasonable buy-in and have no preferences for the rules, since I don't know the differences between them, lol. Any draft time fine with me as well.
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