Topic: The Bear Market is officially...OFF?!? (Read 29273 times)

Agreed on your points. I'm particularly glad you acknowledge 4) because I remember a longer discussion in which we both participated where you took the position that there would *have* to be a "miners' capitulation" before another lasting uptrend could form. You agree now that this wasn't the case, right?
I should add though I that I acknowledge that there might still be lingering effects on the price by the extreme difficulty/hash rate increase.

I would like to add to your observations:

5) The notion of "total capitulation required" doesn't seem to hold for btc in general.

One of the most persistent claims post-April was that, before another uptrend could form, price would have to "deflate all the way".

That's the *exact* phrase that was used over and over again.

It didn't hold true. It appears that the a) hard immediate correction to about 1/4 of April ATH, and b) the drawn out correction to the same price region that ended in early July had the same effect as the demanded "total deflation": it restored confidence that the lowest point was reached.

Let me know if you think I cross into interpretation here, but to me it seems, given the trend that started in early July, and the extreme continuation of it that began more recently, don't leave much doubt that we are under no credible interpretation still in an "April correction/deflation".

Now that were clearly in another accelerating uptrend I think we can makes some basic assessments of the between April and now.


1)  After the Gox dollar withdraw difficulty began their was a gradual draw down of available coins on Gox down to levels comparable to that which we saw at the peak in April.  I'd estimate the draw down was at a rate of ~1k coins a day average over the whole period from the onset of the difficulties until now.  The beginning of the withdraw difficulty also makes the reversal point for the volatile downtrend in price that had dominated after the April crash.

2)  The Silk-roads closure and immediate flash-crash, flash-rally seems to have triggered a flood of USD back onto Gox which has brought it back to the level seen in the aftermath of the April peak.  This seems to have been the immediate trigger for the present move up.

3)  Trading volumes in USD after the April crash stabilized at volumes similar to the pre 2013 run-up period and has yet to set any new all time highs, but in the post silk-roads period they have shown their first signs of increase.  Chinese Yuan trading has increased significantly post silk-roads and is now quite significant.

4)  The network Hash-rate has continued exponentially increasing through the whole thing without looking back or showing an response to the price point.

I think these 4 points can be unambiguously agreed upon by all participants by simple examination of the data, I draw no conclusions from these points at this time but simply wish to get a big picture view of what has happened between April and now.

I differ on the coin volume thing also.  I guess I'm just an argumentative kind of guy   My reasoning is that there are to many various shocks to the system and I believe some pretty serious manipulation operations from time to time.

The 2011 chart was a fun blast from the past.  I remember the night it fell from $4.  I stayed up all night watching in mirthful horror.  I had already plowed a bunch of money in not believing BTC could go below around $5 (absent a very possible system failure.)  I was not to excessively bothered because I always considered every dime I put in to be a likely total loss.

Anyway, after the fall below $4, I tried and tried to find fault with my logic about valuations and could not do it, and I've always considered most of both the bulls and bears on bitcointalk to be...um...analytically impaired to be gentle about it so I didn't pay much attention to their input.  I believe I doubled my position or there abouts from after the $4 night.  I didn't sell any until my 10x target to recover my initial outlay (accd to plan).  I never bought another BTC after the $2 bottom and don't expect that I ever will.

I beg to differ.  I'm thinking of the general attitude.  In 2011 bulls were as rare as hens teeth and even a lot of the most staunch advocates were throwing in the towel.  I saw nothing like that in 2013.

I was really anticipating the need for a significant capitulation and loss of hope after the early 2013 bump.  Not as severe as 2011, but something notable.  We never got close to that as I could see.

Thankfully I recognized my likely failure as a trader before even trying to wear that hat.

Indeed.  Bears are cowering.  Where are all the coins?

Welp, looks like I was wrong about how low we'd get.  I certainly didn't expect it to bubble up again this soon.

It'll be interesting to see how this all plays out.



Right now, I'd expect a continuation of the trend; plenty of volatility and a quickly raising price. I think it could get up to 400-500 before we see another major crash.

you can if your profit is in paper and that turns worthless. (hypothetically)

Date Registered:   September 10, 2012, 05:29:02 PM

you rich yet?   

ya me neither 

Remember, you can never go broke making a profit!

It went up because I became a bear and sold* at 73 - LOL.

This could be a bull trap of course, but I have no idea where the real bottom is should the bear continue. My best guess is still $50 since there seems to be too much interest to push it lower than that. But with BTC3600 being mined every day, if the miners (and others) are perfectly happy to dump all their BTC on the open market for <<$50/BTC, then we will probably see that reflected in the price. Even (especially) if you are willing to buy at $100, you certainly won't pass up an opportunity to buy at ~$40!

* it doesn't matter how much I sold, just the fact that I tested out the bear theory. Then the price shot up.

a few days does not a trend make sir...

I'm not a screaming bear but some prudence and a little fiat profits held on the side wouldn't be bad to have right now

bear you say? seems to be an uptrend for past few days. anyways ive been buying it up ( unfortunately i keep selling and taking profits too ) oh well..    I think we might be back into the bull. but we will see!

Don't get caught in the suckers rally, people.  Even though there are profits to be made, we are still in a bear market...dont get greedy.

That's certainly true.

Definitely agree with "it's a gamble", but that risk is one of the reasons why BTC1 can be bought for less than $100.

Fair enough.

The purchasing power of BTC 15 years from now may still be lower than it is today, though. It's still a gamble, IMO.

Sorry, but I don't see what you are getting at.  Are you saying that bitcoin is still a risky experiment, or that it has no real future and all of this is just like an interesting psychological test that will ultimately not lead to something usable? Or what exactly?

I hope people do.  Bitcoin is fairly unsatisfactory as an exchange currency and attempting to use it in that manner will probably result in a collapse, or at least in an evolution which quickly removes it from the category of valuable solution.  Employing it as a low velocity high powered wealth representation solution is probably it's best hope for sustainability and competitiveness against other solutions.

OTOH, it is possible to do much better than Bitcoin when targeting any number of needed niches so it could be a good thing if it 'burns out' trying to support 'skittles and goat cheese' transactions the world over.  It is largely simple greed on my part to hope for Bitcoin to eventually do another leg-up trick since I happen to hold a lot of them.

I don't buy stuff with BTC today, I buy stuff with BTC in 15 years.