The Bear Market is officially...OFF?!? - page 4.

Spaceman_Spiff

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Quote from: RationalSpeculator on July 02, 2013, 11:05:46 AM

Quote from: Rampion on July 02, 2013, 03:10:32 AM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on July 02, 2013, 03:06:25 AM

+1 from me too Molecular. Rampion, why is despair and capitulation unavoidable in this correction?

Because its not a correction, it's a bubble deflating, and before BTC can start a new growth trend it needs to be undervalued and oversold.

How do you know that this will not just be a correction but that this will be a bubble deflating?

I'm asking as I'm not sure. I would agree that chances are higher for the price to go down over the next half year.

However, I also think there is a smaller but real chance that it won't and we trend higher the coming half year.

You seem very certain this won't happen. I'm wondering what makes you so certain?

I think because of the magnitude of the previous bubble. Big-ass bubbles like that require a big-ass deflation. Nonetheless, personally, the majority of my "BTC allocated money" is still in BTC instead of fiat, just because I mainly want to play the long-term game, and don't want to be the guy who misses the train and keeps hoping for a decent drop. The market can always prove you wrong. Still, it's nice to have some fiat available and hope for some "really cheap coins".

Peter Lambert

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It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye

Quote from: Jaroslaw on July 02, 2013, 04:44:17 AM

So we have a USD in deflation Cheesy

But deflation is economy killing evil, and must be avoided at all costs! Warm up the printing presses, we have to print faster!

Miz4r

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Quote from: Rampion on July 02, 2013, 03:10:32 AM

Because its not a correction, it's a bubble deflating, and before BTC can start a new growth trend it needs to be undervalued and oversold.

You sound so sure of this, almost as if you're speaking about cold hard facts. Except you don't. Undervalued and oversold are subject to interpretation, there is no specific value you can pinpoint when this will be the case. The new growth trend could start from today, or next week. Or never. You don't know, I don't know. And that's a real fact. Too many bulls in denial? That's just your opinion and your point of view.

RationalSpeculator

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This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!

Quote from: Rampion on July 02, 2013, 03:10:32 AM

Quote from: RationalSpeculator on July 02, 2013, 03:06:25 AM

+1 from me too Molecular. Rampion, why is despair and capitulation unavoidable in this correction?

Because its not a correction, it's a bubble deflating, and before BTC can start a new growth trend it needs to be undervalued and oversold.

How do you know that this will not just be a correction but that this will be a bubble deflating?

I'm asking as I'm not sure. I would agree that chances are higher for the price to go down over the next half year.

However, I also think there is a smaller but real chance that it won't and we trend higher the coming half year.

You seem very certain this won't happen. I'm wondering what makes you so certain?

Jaroslaw

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supernode

So we have a USD in deflation Cheesy

N12

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Quote from: molecular on July 02, 2013, 02:10:52 AM

However: the fundamental situation is not like it was in 2011. Back then it was all doom and gloom and a large portion of the community and even more so the rest of the world truly believed bitcoin was dead. There was talk of dead cat bounces and blood was running in the streets of these forums. This is not the situation we see now and I don't believe it's going to come to that.

Exact same thing can happen now. The doom and gloom only developed once we were WELL into the bear market and nearing $2. The point is that sentiment is lagging and you can see the same thing happening and Wired and Forbes spinning something nice, only this time with regulation/convertability/altcoin fears instead of hacks and whatnot.

Quote from: molecular on July 02, 2013, 02:10:52 AM

The ones shooting for a bottom too low will be left holding the fiat bag.

How is USD a bag? USD is opportunity. If Bitcoin doesn't offer you a good deal, you can always go elsewhere. Things have been collapsing against the dollar.

Ultraviolet

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$80 will def not be the bottom. $70 might be the bottom for July/August though. I think 60s under current market conditions will just trigger huge monster buys.

Next mini rally will begin when it gets sold off hard into low 80s. If that doesn't trigger bullish momentum then 70s and downhill until BTC gets mainstream hype again.

Rampion

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Quote from: RationalSpeculator on July 02, 2013, 03:06:25 AM

Quote from: Rampion on July 02, 2013, 02:38:31 AM

Quote from: molecular on July 02, 2013, 02:10:52 AM

Quote from: evolve on July 02, 2013, 01:14:14 AM

It should. I've been waiting for a significant move in either direction to bump the thread....I certainly didn't think it would take this long though. The long slow slide has been longer and slower than I originally thought.

How many true believers do we have left? Anyone still thinking we are going to $10,000 this year?

I'm still a true believer. Never thought $10,000 this year was possible. I actually voted "never" in the respective poll (suggesting the USD would cease to exist before that).

Let's remain realistic: yes, the bears were/are right and I was too bullish / in denial when the bubble popped. It really looks like a long slow slide down like in 2011.

However: the fundamental situation is not like it was in 2011. Back then it was all doom and gloom and a large portion of the community and even more so the rest of the world truly believed bitcoin was dead. There was talk of dead cat bounces and blood was running in the streets of these forums. This is not the situation we see now and I don't believe it's going to come to that.

Let's look at some numbers: The 2011 pop yielded a "correction" (lol) of ~94%. Same thing applied to 2013 would result in a price of $16.5 / BTC. Currently we're at 70% off from the $266 high.

Again, realistically speaking: If you think we'll see blood on the streets of this forum again exactly like in 2011, selling now and buying at roughly the bottom ($16.5) would quadruple ones bitcoin holdings. He who thinks bitcoin is doomed to fail this time should be all out by now. In my mind, a realistic bottom is going to be put in at $30, $50 or $80.

The ones shooting for a bottom too low will be left holding the fiat bag.

+100, but let's face that the absence of gloom and doom compared to 2011 is a double faced coin. Despair and capitulation are unavoidable, and this time the decline will be slower (and thus more painful) because there are more bulls in denial.

Agreed on the three bottoms, but $80 is a tad too optimistic, I'd bet on $50 or $30ish

+1 from me too Molecular. Rampion, why is despair and capitulation unavoidable in this correction?

Because its not a correction, it's a bubble deflating, and before BTC can start a new growth trend it needs to be undervalued and oversold.

RationalSpeculator

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This bull will try to shake you off. Hold tight!

Quote from: Rampion on July 02, 2013, 02:38:31 AM

Quote from: molecular on July 02, 2013, 02:10:52 AM

Quote from: evolve on July 02, 2013, 01:14:14 AM

It should. I've been waiting for a significant move in either direction to bump the thread....I certainly didn't think it would take this long though. The long slow slide has been longer and slower than I originally thought.

How many true believers do we have left? Anyone still thinking we are going to $10,000 this year?

I'm still a true believer. Never thought $10,000 this year was possible. I actually voted "never" in the respective poll (suggesting the USD would cease to exist before that).

Let's remain realistic: yes, the bears were/are right and I was too bullish / in denial when the bubble popped. It really looks like a long slow slide down like in 2011.

However: the fundamental situation is not like it was in 2011. Back then it was all doom and gloom and a large portion of the community and even more so the rest of the world truly believed bitcoin was dead. There was talk of dead cat bounces and blood was running in the streets of these forums. This is not the situation we see now and I don't believe it's going to come to that.

Let's look at some numbers: The 2011 pop yielded a "correction" (lol) of ~94%. Same thing applied to 2013 would result in a price of $16.5 / BTC. Currently we're at 70% off from the $266 high.

Again, realistically speaking: If you think we'll see blood on the streets of this forum again exactly like in 2011, selling now and buying at roughly the bottom ($16.5) would quadruple ones bitcoin holdings. He who thinks bitcoin is doomed to fail this time should be all out by now. In my mind, a realistic bottom is going to be put in at $30, $50 or $80.

The ones shooting for a bottom too low will be left holding the fiat bag.

+100, but let's face that the absence of gloom and doom compared to 2011 is a double faced coin. Despair and capitulation are unavoidable, and this time the decline will be slower (and thus more painful) because there are more bulls in denial.

Agreed on the three bottoms, but $80 is a tad too optimistic, I'd bet on $50 or $30ish

+1 from me too Molecular. Rampion, why is despair and capitulation unavoidable in this correction?

Rampion

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Quote from: molecular on July 02, 2013, 02:10:52 AM

Quote from: evolve on July 02, 2013, 01:14:14 AM

It should. I've been waiting for a significant move in either direction to bump the thread....I certainly didn't think it would take this long though. The long slow slide has been longer and slower than I originally thought.

How many true believers do we have left? Anyone still thinking we are going to $10,000 this year?

I'm still a true believer. Never thought $10,000 this year was possible. I actually voted "never" in the respective poll (suggesting the USD would cease to exist before that).

Let's remain realistic: yes, the bears were/are right and I was too bullish / in denial when the bubble popped. It really looks like a long slow slide down like in 2011.

However: the fundamental situation is not like it was in 2011. Back then it was all doom and gloom and a large portion of the community and even more so the rest of the world truly believed bitcoin was dead. There was talk of dead cat bounces and blood was running in the streets of these forums. This is not the situation we see now and I don't believe it's going to come to that.

Let's look at some numbers: The 2011 pop yielded a "correction" (lol) of ~94%. Same thing applied to 2013 would result in a price of $16.5 / BTC. Currently we're at 70% off from the $266 high.

Again, realistically speaking: If you think we'll see blood on the streets of this forum again exactly like in 2011, selling now and buying at roughly the bottom ($16.5) would quadruple ones bitcoin holdings. He who thinks bitcoin is doomed to fail this time should be all out by now. In my mind, a realistic bottom is going to be put in at $30, $50 or $80.

The ones shooting for a bottom too low will be left holding the fiat bag.

+100, but let's face that the absence of gloom and doom compared to 2011 is a double faced coin. Despair and capitulation are unavoidable, and this time the decline will be slower (and thus more painful) because there are more bulls in denial.

Agreed on the three bottoms, but $80 is a tad too optimistic, I'd bet on $50 or $30ish

Jutarul

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Quote from: evolve on July 02, 2013, 01:14:14 AM

It should. I've been waiting for a significant move in either direction to bump the thread....

the price probed the current level 3 times within the last 2 months and bumped back up. If anything this indicates that people are unwilling to sell below the current level.

Network difficulty is shooting up dramatically now. Once production cost and market price for BTC become similar (+- 20%) it changes the dynamics. Many miners are speculators who invest in mining equipment in order to acquire bitcoins at a lower price point. However, if mining becomes unprofitable, those people will just buy from the market and likely start another rally. Likely to start around september - or earlier if price keeps falling.

molecular

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Quote from: evolve on July 02, 2013, 01:14:14 AM

It should. I've been waiting for a significant move in either direction to bump the thread....I certainly didn't think it would take this long though. The long slow slide has been longer and slower than I originally thought.

How many true believers do we have left? Anyone still thinking we are going to $10,000 this year?

I'm still a true believer. Never thought $10,000 this year was possible. I actually voted "never" in the respective poll (suggesting the USD would cease to exist before that).

Let's remain realistic: yes, the bears were/are right and I was too bullish / in denial when the bubble popped. It really looks like a long slow slide down like in 2011.

However: the fundamental situation is not like it was in 2011. Back then it was all doom and gloom and a large portion of the community and even more so the rest of the world truly believed bitcoin was dead. There was talk of dead cat bounces and blood was running in the streets of these forums. This is not the situation we see now and I don't believe it's going to come to that.

Let's look at some numbers: The 2011 pop yielded a "correction" (lol) of ~94%. Same thing applied to 2013 would result in a price of $16.5 / BTC. Currently we're at 70% off from the $266 high.

Again, realistically speaking: If you think we'll see blood on the streets of this forum again exactly like in 2011, selling now and buying at roughly the bottom ($16.5) would quadruple ones bitcoin holdings. He who thinks bitcoin is doomed to fail this time should be all out by now. In my mind, a realistic bottom is going to be put in at $30, $50 or $80.

The ones shooting for a bottom too low will be left holding the fiat bag.

evolve

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daytrader/superhero

It should. I've been waiting for a significant move in either direction to bump the thread....I certainly didn't think it would take this long though. The long slow slide has been longer and slower than I originally thought.

How many true believers do we have left? Anyone still thinking we are going to $10,000 this year?

Frozenlock

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This feels like a déjà vu.

evolve

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daytrader/superhero

So how is everyone feeling about the current price move?

Seal

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Quote from: Rampion on May 18, 2013, 07:17:41 PM

Quote from: Chainsaw on May 18, 2013, 07:14:02 PM

Quote from: evolve on May 15, 2013, 03:55:06 PM

Quote from: old_engineer on May 15, 2013, 03:53:13 PM

I seriously doubt any domain seizures will occur as the US bank account seizure has nothing to do with mtgox.com or bitcoin. From the feds' point of view, money was sent from Dwolla account A to Mark Karpales' Wells Fargo account; then from Mark's Wells Fargo account to Dwolla account B. Case closed: Mark's Wells Fargo account is operating as a money transmitting business, entire enclosed within US borders, and can be seized for lack of a license. Why he didn't sign up for a license is beyond me.

DHS is specifically targeting MtGox, though. Right now they are doing it through the most convenient means, through shutting down bank accounts. I highly doubt they are going to stop there, though.

IMO, If they cant take down the exchange through seizing accounts, they will do it in court. This is also going to set a precedent on how they handle the other exchanges dealing in the US as well.

http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2013/05/feds-reveal-the-search-warrant-that-seized-mt-gox-account/

evolve,

I'm with you. Mostly out of laziness, I had all my trading funds on Mt Gox. That's just too much risk. The recent events left me a bit rushed, so I temporarily pulled things to a local wallet. After spending a few days, I decided to throw a little into CampBX. Their splash screen sent me the message "We get security, and we're gonna play by the rules in the USA". I also read between the lines that they have a strong management team behind them. A smart elevator pitch on entry to their site. A marketing campaign to compel viral growth. My first impression, they're at least giving off the appearance of professionality. I guess time will tell.

Yeah, it's clear quite an important amount of coins left Gox.

I'm watching this closely, there will be a lot of money to be made when the market reacts to any news like this. Especially on the short side.

Rampion

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Quote from: Chainsaw on May 18, 2013, 07:14:02 PM

Quote from: evolve on May 15, 2013, 03:55:06 PM

Quote from: old_engineer on May 15, 2013, 03:53:13 PM

I seriously doubt any domain seizures will occur as the US bank account seizure has nothing to do with mtgox.com or bitcoin. From the feds' point of view, money was sent from Dwolla account A to Mark Karpales' Wells Fargo account; then from Mark's Wells Fargo account to Dwolla account B. Case closed: Mark's Wells Fargo account is operating as a money transmitting business, entire enclosed within US borders, and can be seized for lack of a license. Why he didn't sign up for a license is beyond me.

DHS is specifically targeting MtGox, though. Right now they are doing it through the most convenient means, through shutting down bank accounts. I highly doubt they are going to stop there, though.

IMO, If they cant take down the exchange through seizing accounts, they will do it in court. This is also going to set a precedent on how they handle the other exchanges dealing in the US as well.

http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2013/05/feds-reveal-the-search-warrant-that-seized-mt-gox-account/

evolve,

I'm with you. Mostly out of laziness, I had all my trading funds on Mt Gox. That's just too much risk. The recent events left me a bit rushed, so I temporarily pulled things to a local wallet. After spending a few days, I decided to throw a little into CampBX. Their splash screen sent me the message "We get security, and we're gonna play by the rules in the USA". I also read between the lines that they have a strong management team behind them. A smart elevator pitch on entry to their site. A marketing campaign to compel viral growth. My first impression, they're at least giving off the appearance of professionality. I guess time will tell.

Yeah, it's clear quite an important amount of coins left Gox.

Chainsaw

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x

Quote from: evolve on May 15, 2013, 03:55:06 PM

Quote from: old_engineer on May 15, 2013, 03:53:13 PM

I seriously doubt any domain seizures will occur as the US bank account seizure has nothing to do with mtgox.com or bitcoin. From the feds' point of view, money was sent from Dwolla account A to Mark Karpales' Wells Fargo account; then from Mark's Wells Fargo account to Dwolla account B. Case closed: Mark's Wells Fargo account is operating as a money transmitting business, entire enclosed within US borders, and can be seized for lack of a license. Why he didn't sign up for a license is beyond me.

DHS is specifically targeting MtGox, though. Right now they are doing it through the most convenient means, through shutting down bank accounts. I highly doubt they are going to stop there, though.

IMO, If they cant take down the exchange through seizing accounts, they will do it in court. This is also going to set a precedent on how they handle the other exchanges dealing in the US as well.

http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2013/05/feds-reveal-the-search-warrant-that-seized-mt-gox-account/

evolve,

I'm with you. Mostly out of laziness, I had all my trading funds on Mt Gox. That's just too much risk. The recent events left me a bit rushed, so I temporarily pulled things to a local wallet. After spending a few days, I decided to throw a little into CampBX. Their splash screen sent me the message "We get security, and we're gonna play by the rules in the USA". I also read between the lines that they have a strong management team behind them. A smart elevator pitch on entry to their site. A marketing campaign to compel viral growth. My first impression, they're at least giving off the appearance of professionality. I guess time will tell.

Peter Lambert

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It's all fun and games until somebody loses an eye

Quote from: molecular on May 14, 2013, 01:48:29 AM

on a more constructive (kind of) note:

We have invalidated pretty much all trends / triangles we can draw and are smurfing along beyond the apex of the grand correction triangle.

What does this mean? Which TA constructs can be used now?

I feel lost.

Looks like my prediction was correct: The price overshot, then oscilated back and forth finding the market price of a bitcoin. Now we are at the market price of a bitcoin until further news. Resume business as normal.

MAbtc

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Quote from: evolve on May 15, 2013, 03:42:13 PM

My concern is that wire transfers wont be possible much longer either. Honestly, I wouldnt be surprised of Mt.Gox's domain gets seized (killing any chance of getting my money back).

Thats my concern about bitstamp as well.

Even if Gox went bankrupt as a result of seizures, you'd still likely be able to apply for remission... and get paid out a small percentage of what you were owed.....years later. Wink

Quote from: old_engineer on May 15, 2013, 03:53:13 PM

I seriously doubt any domain seizures will occur as the US bank account seizure has nothing to do with mtgox.com or bitcoin. From the feds' point of view, money was sent from Dwolla account A to Mark Karpales' Wells Fargo account; then from Mark's Wells Fargo account to Dwolla account B. Case closed: Mark's Wells Fargo account is operating as a money transmitting business, entire enclosed within US borders, and can be seized for lack of a license. Why he didn't sign up for a license is beyond me.

Doesn't matter. If the feds take the position that Gox is violating US laws, seizure of their domains is entirely plausible. It is too early to say what will happen.

Quote from: evolve on May 15, 2013, 03:55:06 PM

DHS is specifically targeting MtGox, though. Right now they are doing it through the most convenient means, through shutting down bank accounts. I highly doubt they are going to stop there, though.

IMO, If they cant take down the exchange through seizing accounts, they will do it in court. This is also going to set a precedent on how they handle the other exchanges dealing in the US as well.

http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2013/05/feds-reveal-the-search-warrant-that-seized-mt-gox-account/

Indeed, we can't speculate that this ends here. It is very plausible that this is the tip of the iceberg.

Topic: The Bear Market is officially...OFF?!? - page 4. (Read 29273 times)