Topic: The Corona Pandemic economic guessing game (Read 1167 times)
Could not be any unexpectedly consequences cause countries which economies were stronger before will stay strong.
It will start with the developing countries, especially those that are already in critical condition before the pandemic started. There are lots of countries that are living in a really bad situation before the Coronavirus pandemic started.
Countries such as the DR Congo, Mozambique, Haiti, Ethiopia, and I don't know if I should add Venezuela to this list. Meehn, these countries will be hit really hard if this Coronavirus should get serious in such places. These poor countries are the ones that really shouldn't have let the virus get into their country. The worst part of it all is that most of them if not all, has a really bad government who don't care and wouldn't do much to stop the case
Countries such as the DR Congo, Mozambique, Haiti, Ethiopia, and I don't know if I should add Venezuela to this list. Meehn, these countries will be hit really hard if this Coronavirus should get serious in such places. These poor countries are the ones that really shouldn't have let the virus get into their country. The worst part of it all is that most of them if not all, has a really bad government who don't care and wouldn't do much to stop the case
BUT the negative impact on the economy won't end for another two years. We might see unemployment rates surge around the globe like never before. Some analysts claim the unemployment rate in the U.S. might surge as high as the Great Depression.
Would that mean a lot of people will be homeless again in US?
Maybe at the moment we haven't feel the effect yet because currently we are under the support of the government but soon it will show.
I don't live in US but I am starting to feel the effect of the pandemic, a lot of business are closing already especially those who are not allowed to operate at the moment, the rent and bills are killing their business, so it's wise to close it at the moment and these people will loss their source of income which is same like people who are unemployed at the moment.
Yeah, a lot of people WILL be homeless, jobless, penniless. Although, I believe the U.S. will manage better than its European counterparts.
I'm still waiting for annoucements of the first default by an E.U. state.
BUT the negative impact on the economy won't end for another two years. We might see unemployment rates surge around the globe like never before. Some analysts claim the unemployment rate in the U.S. might surge as high as the Great Depression.
Would that mean a lot of people will be homeless again in US?
Maybe at the moment we haven't feel the effect yet because currently we are under the support of the government but soon it will show.
I don't live in US but I am starting to feel the effect of the pandemic, a lot of business are closing already especially those who are not allowed to operate at the moment, the rent and bills are killing their business, so it's wise to close it at the moment and these people will loss their source of income which is same like people who are unemployed at the moment.
Not sure about other countries but the US bailout money are loans, not gifts. These businesses are taking on massive debts to keep afloat. The longer this goes on, the worst shape they'll be in when they do reopen. Since the loans will be forgiven if they default, businesses have some incentive to take the loans now and just close up shop later. It'll be interesting to see what happens in a month or two (regarding defaults and bankruptcies) when it's expected that most states will start reopening.
Aren't all successful companies start their business from taking massive loans? And there's nothing wrong with that. That's how business has been done for more than a century in the Western world. Why should we suppose that they would choose to declare bankruptcy right away? Some of them will do just that, of course, but, I'm sure, most of them will strive to make profits(and will succeed in that, imo).
An eternal optimist, you.
Successful companies usually take loans for growth. Taking loans to shut down (while funding overheads and payroll) is a little different.
Sure, some businesses will do just fine. I'm just saying shutting down for 2-3 months and taking on a shitload of debt is a shock that many businesses can't handle, particularly small businesses. Plus, the bigger problem than the shutdowns is that demand may not return even once they are lifted:
As States Begin to Reopen, Many Stay Home—Keeping Economic Rebound Elusive
Who Will Reopen the Economy—the President, the Governors, or the People?
Yes I'm optimistic, but my optimism isn't coming out of nowhere. Over a million COVID-19 patients have recovered successfully, and among 2 million+ currently active cases only 2% are in serious or critical condition. This virus turned out to be not as deadly as first feared. Some people, like that yoga teacher in your video, are still afraid of the worst case scenario, but more and more specialists agree that the probability of it is very low.
BUT the negative impact on the economy won't end for another two years. We might see unemployment rates surge around the globe like never before. Some analysts claim the unemployment rate in the U.S. might surge as high as the Great Depression.
Not sure about other countries but the US bailout money are loans, not gifts. These businesses are taking on massive debts to keep afloat. The longer this goes on, the worst shape they'll be in when they do reopen. Since the loans will be forgiven if they default, businesses have some incentive to take the loans now and just close up shop later. It'll be interesting to see what happens in a month or two (regarding defaults and bankruptcies) when it's expected that most states will start reopening.
Aren't all successful companies start their business from taking massive loans? And there's nothing wrong with that. That's how business has been done for more than a century in the Western world. Why should we suppose that they would choose to declare bankruptcy right away? Some of them will do just that, of course, but, I'm sure, most of them will strive to make profits(and will succeed in that, imo).
An eternal optimist, you.
Successful companies usually take loans for growth. Taking loans to shut down (while funding overheads and payroll) is a little different.
Sure, some businesses will do just fine. I'm just saying shutting down for 2-3 months and taking on a shitload of debt is a shock that many businesses can't handle, particularly small businesses. Plus, the bigger problem than the shutdowns is that demand may not return even once they are lifted:
As States Begin to Reopen, Many Stay Home—Keeping Economic Rebound Elusive
Who Will Reopen the Economy—the President, the Governors, or the People?
Yes I'm optimistic, but my optimism isn't coming out of nowhere. Over a million COVID-19 patients have recovered successfully, and among 2 million+ currently active cases only 2% are in serious or critical condition. This virus turned out to be not as deadly as first feared. Some people, like that yoga teacher in your video, are still afraid of the worst case scenario, but more and more specialists agree that the probability of it is very low.
Not sure about other countries but the US bailout money are loans, not gifts. These businesses are taking on massive debts to keep afloat. The longer this goes on, the worst shape they'll be in when they do reopen. Since the loans will be forgiven if they default, businesses have some incentive to take the loans now and just close up shop later. It'll be interesting to see what happens in a month or two (regarding defaults and bankruptcies) when it's expected that most states will start reopening.
Aren't all successful companies start their business from taking massive loans? And there's nothing wrong with that. That's how business has been done for more than a century in the Western world. Why should we suppose that they would choose to declare bankruptcy right away? Some of them will do just that, of course, but, I'm sure, most of them will strive to make profits(and will succeed in that, imo).
An eternal optimist, you.
Successful companies usually take loans for growth. Taking loans to shut down (while funding overheads and payroll) is a little different.
Sure, some businesses will do just fine. I'm just saying shutting down for 2-3 months and taking on a shitload of debt is a shock that many businesses can't handle, particularly small businesses. Plus, the bigger problem than the shutdowns is that demand may not return even once they are lifted:
As States Begin to Reopen, Many Stay Home—Keeping Economic Rebound Elusive
Who Will Reopen the Economy—the President, the Governors, or the People?
~
It would certainly be so if there were no government support of small businesses. Yes, small companies can't survive without bringing in money, and they can't earn money while being closed, but if the government gives them the money they lack, they survive.
Not sure about other countries but the US bailout money are loans, not gifts. These businesses are taking on massive debts to keep afloat. The longer this goes on, the worst shape they'll be in when they do reopen. Since the loans will be forgiven if they default, businesses have some incentive to take the loans now and just close up shop later. It'll be interesting to see what happens in a month or two (regarding defaults and bankruptcies) when it's expected that most states will start reopening.
It's probably safe to say we'll see a lot of permanent business closures as a result of these shutdowns. It will take years to recover those jobs.
It would certainly be so if there were no government support of small businesses. Yes, small companies can't survive without bringing in money, and they can't earn money while being closed, but if the government gives them the money they lack, they survive.
Not sure about other countries but the US bailout money are loans, not gifts. These businesses are taking on massive debts to keep afloat. The longer this goes on, the worst shape they'll be in when they do reopen. Since the loans will be forgiven if they default, businesses have some incentive to take the loans now and just close up shop later. It'll be interesting to see what happens in a month or two (regarding defaults and bankruptcies) when it's expected that most states will start reopening.
Aren't all successful companies start their business from taking massive loans? And there's nothing wrong with that. That's how business has been done for more than a century in the Western world. Why should we suppose that they would choose to declare bankruptcy right away? Some of them will do just that, of course, but, I'm sure, most of them will strive to make profits(and will succeed in that, imo).
things look shaky for italy. their bonds were just downgraded again, just one level above junk bonds now. they are going deep into debt with bailout loans for businesses, similar to the USA.
given how modest EU stimulus has been so far, are we expecting an italian bailout, if push comes to shove?
this princeton economist doesn't think so:
so italy is definitely on the watchlist.
given how modest EU stimulus has been so far, are we expecting an italian bailout, if push comes to shove?
this princeton economist doesn't think so:
Quote
To put this in perspective, European leaders are squabbling over pennies in deciding on the European Union’s next budget. Hence, at a time when the strongest European nations are weak, it would be a mistake to expect that they will rescue a financially failing Italy in a timely manner. And if the Italian financial fault line cracks, the debt defaults from Italy will cascade through the global financial system, causing damage that will be hard to contain.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/italy-will-need-a-precautionary-bailout-a-financial-firewall-as-coronavirus-pushes-it-to-the-brink-2020-03-10
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/italy-will-need-a-precautionary-bailout-a-financial-firewall-as-coronavirus-pushes-it-to-the-brink-2020-03-10
so italy is definitely on the watchlist.
If we look at the condition of the world economy is really apprehensive, many countries have finally decided to print money to save
economy. But this way is only for the short term, but can have a bad effect if for the long term. Inflation rate can increase, and many
are affected by this corona virus, the country of America which became the first most populous country corona virus. But countries
from Africa that are likely to be the first to go bankrupt, we know in Africa many poor countries. Which can be bankrupt if exposed to
this corona virus, because the economy is weak.
Some countries in Africa, Latin America and Asia can really suffer very much, due to their rather poor development, and the lack of an adequate level of health care that could help them with boron coronavirus. They can only hope for outside help.economy. But this way is only for the short term, but can have a bad effect if for the long term. Inflation rate can increase, and many
are affected by this corona virus, the country of America which became the first most populous country corona virus. But countries
from Africa that are likely to be the first to go bankrupt, we know in Africa many poor countries. Which can be bankrupt if exposed to
this corona virus, because the economy is weak.
If we look at the condition of the world economy is really apprehensive, many countries have finally decided to print money to save
economy. But this way is only for the short term, but can have a bad effect if for the long term. Inflation rate can increase, and many
are affected by this corona virus, the country of America which became the first most populous country corona virus. But countries
from Africa that are likely to be the first to go bankrupt, we know in Africa many poor countries. Which can be bankrupt if exposed to
this corona virus, because the economy is weak.
economy. But this way is only for the short term, but can have a bad effect if for the long term. Inflation rate can increase, and many
are affected by this corona virus, the country of America which became the first most populous country corona virus. But countries
from Africa that are likely to be the first to go bankrupt, we know in Africa many poor countries. Which can be bankrupt if exposed to
this corona virus, because the economy is weak.
Can't tell which country but definitely the poor countries will suffer more. That's why it's necessary that the measures poor countries will implement will be very strict as they can't afford to facilitate a huge number of people in their hospital as they lack facilities and doctors.
You are right, the virus is spreading very quickly, so poor countries will be affected by this Virus because already those countries cannot control the flow of the virus with limited facilities. They should manage to focus on their economic growth otherwise the need to face a lot of problems.
not only poor countries but even rich and richest ones are infact more prone to it . but how can they foccus on thier economic growth when they are poor already and they can even become poorer on these times . what you mean to say is that they need to foccus on implementing a good strategy to combat the virus . @finestream . i can feel it now here on our place , hospitals here are now rejecting people . this is bad because those people are dying . people complain without knowing the situation
Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?
not possible countries could go bankrupt likely all countries experiencing economic problems a country that has a high poverty rate would be the rate of deaths and starvation were the highest because they do not have a store to eat and do not have the money for their needs every day to survive pandemic period due to the lockdown requires food stored in a country if the government does not provide assistance to the poor then they may die of hunger.
now I think It would be third world country like Uganda their economy was already bad
Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?
not possible countries could go bankrupt likely all countries experiencing economic problems a country that has a high poverty rate would be the rate of deaths and starvation were the highest because they do not have a store to eat and do not have the money for their needs every day to survive pandemic period due to the lockdown requires food stored in a country if the government does not provide assistance to the poor then they may die of hunger. 
Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?
In my opinion, countries in the top poor and not having drastic measures to prevent pandemic in the first place are likely to go bankrupt and default first. They don't have enough human and financial resources to fight for a long time, before major countries (countries can help them) quell the epidemic and the world economy temporarily recover.Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?
In my opinion, countries in the top poor and not having drastic measures to prevent pandemic in the first place are likely to go bankrupt and default first. They don't have enough human and financial resources to fight for a long time, before major countries (countries can help them) quell the epidemic and the world economy temporarily recover.
With oil prices in the dumps, some of the weaker oil export-heavy countries on this list may be interesting to watch regarding sovereign defaults:
It would certainly be so if there were no government support of small businesses. Yes, small companies can't survive without bringing in money, and they can't earn money while being closed, but if the government gives them the money they lack, they survive.
Not sure about other countries but the US bailout money are loans, not gifts. These businesses are taking on massive debts to keep afloat. The longer this goes on, the worst shape they'll be in when they do reopen. Since the loans will be forgiven if they default, businesses have some incentive to take the loans now and just close up shop later. It'll be interesting to see what happens in a month or two (regarding defaults and bankruptcies) when it's expected that most states will start reopening.
It's probably safe to say we'll see a lot of permanent business closures as a result of these shutdowns. It will take years to recover those jobs.
It would certainly be so if there were no government support of small businesses. Yes, small companies can't survive without bringing in money, and they can't earn money while being closed, but if the government gives them the money they lack, they survive.
Not sure about other countries but the US bailout money are loans, not gifts. These businesses are taking on massive debts to keep afloat. The longer this goes on, the worst shape they'll be in when they do reopen. Since the loans will be forgiven if they default, businesses have some incentive to take the loans now and just close up shop later. It'll be interesting to see what happens in a month or two (regarding defaults and bankruptcies) when it's expected that most states will start reopening.
This is a difficult question to answer which country is most affected by the COVID-19 epidemic. Because no one can know exactly what a country's budget really is and how much it can afford to borrow from the World Bank. But I think there will be a group of countries at risk of bankruptcy in the economy. These are the countries that have been severely affected by this epidemic with extremely high numbers of cases and embargoed by the US and Europe. That is Iran.
Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?
At this point the power that gives value to fiat money is trust, to much printing may affect this trust and the results could be disastrous. Jump to: