The Corona Pandemic economic guessing game - page 7.

TheAndy500

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Quote from: ArIMy11 on March 24, 2020, 10:45:35 AM

As far as I know, Italy has a very worst situation in facing the Covid-19. I think they have the highest record of death rate in just a single day ( https://time.com/5807804/italy-coronavirus-deaths-rise/ ). It is so heart-breaking. Due to this I think their economy goes a very deep down. I am just hoping we in our country will not suffer the same thing. I also think it will be very hard for them to stand up again since up to now, number of patients recovered are small.

As I wrote in the previous post, statistics from the last days say that the situation in Italy has been under control. It is true that until now (except China) it was the country with the highest records of infection and deaths. However, other countries are catching up with these results very quickly. Just look at Spain, which is getting worse every day. Other European countries such as Switzerland, France and the Netherlands are also in a very difficult situation. Due to the huge number of citizens, the US may also be in a terrible situation. Unfortunately, but in many countries it is just beginning .. I think that the biggest problem may be in Great Britain due to taking action too late.
The most important thing at this point is to invent a cure, but no one seems to be even close to it.

ArIMy11

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As far as I know, Italy has a very worst situation in facing the Covid-19. I think they have the highest record of death rate in just a single day ( https://time.com/5807804/italy-coronavirus-deaths-rise/ ). It is so heart-breaking. Due to this I think their economy goes a very deep down. I am just hoping we in our country will not suffer the same thing. I also think it will be very hard for them to stand up again since up to now, number of patients recovered are small.

TheAndy500

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Quote from: FanatMonet on March 24, 2020, 07:09:19 AM

I will assume that there will be no defaults, but Italy will suffer the most, the situation is too bad there, people have not reacted properly to the threat for too long, and now they are paying for it. They pay a very high price that could have been avoided had the government been a little tougher.

From my observations of statistics, it seems that there has been a solstice in Italy and there has been no increase in the number of infected people or deaths for two days. The Italians got very scared and immediately took very quick action. Of course they did it late, but they did it well.
The situation is very different in Great Britain, where the government simply said that he did not care at all about the threat of coronavirus. Actions are beginning to be taken, but society does not care at all. In my opinion, the level of ignorance will reflect the level of consequences for the whole of Great Britain.
Brexit also can be very disastrous for Great Britain, because if the whole island will be infected and cut off from deliveries, no one will be able to help them. If, at all, it is possible to control the virus in the rest of Europe, then other countries will have their own problems and will have to rebuild a damaged economy. That is why I think that when it comes to Europe, Great Britain will certainly suffer the most.

Subbir

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I have never heard of any medicine or vaccine developed to cure the virus nobody can tell the precise details of how long it'll last because the days pass the prevalence continues to extend But to some extent everyone has got to follow instructions to regulate it. Everything has come to fruition and social mismanagement has led to the deterioration of business and therefore the economy.

imstillthebest

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Quote from: snipie on March 24, 2020, 08:35:10 AM

Quote from: Sadlife on March 24, 2020, 08:25:51 AM

This is only my speculation, if this virus outbreak goes on and on and throughout history a vaccine comes after 1 to 2 years of researching and testing then, it would be probably the US government as we know. They're doing massive money printing, forgivable loans, 0 interest rates. Plus the civilians doesn't follow their government guidelines to stay at home and do social distancing. I think their the first to fall and everything will follow like a domino effect.

I believe people in most countries aren't following any guidelines. I am not talking about cults only, you can see French in parks, Americans in closed beaches...crowded bus/train...lines in front of every store... Even some Italians aren't following any rules!
It is all about having good health structures or not now.

yeah right other people are just cant understand simple instructions . they only care about themselves but if we cant beat them then we must not join them , we that can understand simple instruction must stay home . that could be the reason that those people are now getting sick but its too late now for them to regret . @sadlife , i heard there are now cure for the virus and i also dont think that the virus can last for over a year because we are now seeing major progression on most places . people only need to cooperate for more faster recvoeries . i just hope they will this time

snipie

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Quote from: Sadlife on March 24, 2020, 08:25:51 AM

This is only my speculation, if this virus outbreak goes on and on and throughout history a vaccine comes after 1 to 2 years of researching and testing then, it would be probably the US government as we know. They're doing massive money printing, forgivable loans, 0 interest rates. Plus the civilians doesn't follow their government guidelines to stay at home and do social distancing. I think their the first to fall and everything will follow like a domino effect.

I believe people in most countries aren't following any guidelines. I am not talking about cults only, you can see French in parks, Americans in closed beaches...crowded bus/train...lines in front of every store... Even some Italians aren't following any rules!
It is all about having good health structures or not now.

CHENIEN

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This pandemic is like a thorn in the throat that we cannot call it a game just because it is painful, it is not a game of life and it's probably created by a selfish people with there's nothing to do except to destroy and eat nasty animals that leads a propagation of coronavirus, the most pitiful of these is the herald's countries which relies solely on weekly income.
Finally, the country of china reported that covid-19 disease has been continuing to decline, but it's hard to know that the tribulation of the Italian nation is much more infected compared to china

Sadlife

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This is only my speculation, if this virus outbreak goes on and on and throughout history a vaccine comes after 1 to 2 years of researching and testing then, it would be probably the US government as we know. They're doing massive money printing, forgivable loans, 0 interest rates. Plus the civilians doesn't follow their government guidelines to stay at home and do social distancing. I think their the first to fall and everything will follow like a domino effect.

Savemore

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Quote from: FanEagle on March 23, 2020, 01:47:40 PM

Italy is by far the most affected for sure, I have seen pictures of "ghost town" type of situations where there was no one around and that kind of means economy stops. Economy is not something that can afford to stop or give a break, it has to continue forever to keep churning profits or as soon as it stops we are talking about a global crisis.

It means Italy is about to have something so huge that other nations will start to get affected because of it, France is next and then Spain will be following them, after that it is impossible to think Germany will be unaffected and of course UK ... as you can see it is going from one place to another and economy will be basically destroyed in general in all of Europe because of this. Hopefully it will be recovered but it will take a lot of time before we are back on regular days economically.

Italy is now became the new epicenter of the coronavirus where the infected persons in their country have now reached 63,000 and counting and they have the highest death toll in the world because of the virus where it now reached 6,000. There are now many effects to their economy because of the pandemic where their government have hard time to control. Even though they now implemented quarantine, the virus is still spreading that can still affect their economy.

so98nn

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on March 18, 2020, 04:06:18 AM

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

I believe its going to be INDIA.

(Good God, apologies but practicality says it)

The thing is India is fighting against coronavirus with full power but in the meantime its loosing huge businesses and its economy bursting inside out.
India does't have enough funds in the Reserve Bank of India.

Banks are not allowed to take loan EMI's and other repayments from the customers for next three months or until next notice from the government. Thus, it will lead to loss of bank business as they will have huge set backs.

On the other hand, NSE and BSE are not recovering that effectively at which rate it shall be. Large number of employees have their money in these markets and which they will not getting back soon or will be selling in loss.

Most of the engineering companies have been shut and there is no salaries to employees.

India is also led by huge number of farmers and for them its getting difficult to sell their goods in far locations due to lockdown of transports etc.

Looking at such locked up situation im betting on India followed by Italy.

FanatMonet

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I will assume that there will be no defaults, but Italy will suffer the most, the situation is too bad there, people have not reacted properly to the threat for too long, and now they are paying for it. They pay a very high price that could have been avoided had the government been a little tougher.

figmentofmyass

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on March 24, 2020, 04:51:13 AM

Not Italy. I believe their down-playing of the pandemic will cost their falling economy more, than if they implemeted quarantines earlier.

woulda, coulda, shoulda. NYC is a disaster too, with something like 20% of all cases in the USA inside its metro area.

the burning question on a lot of peoples' minds is this: are cases being under reported in authoritarian countries like china and russia? their state run medias aren't known for accuracy and transparency. it's hard to tell if the pandemic growth is that much worse in western countries (italy, spain, soon to be USA) or if the problem is being brushed under the rug elsewhere. the chinese government is now planting the narrative that a recent uptick in infections is caused by "imported cases" from incoming travelers from abroad.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-toll/chinas-new-coronavirus-infections-double-due-to-imported-cases-idUSKBN21B01X

let's not forget the story of the spanish flu:

Quote

To maintain morale, World War I censors minimized early reports of illness and mortality in Germany, the United Kingdom, France, and the United States. Papers were free to report the epidemic's effects in neutral Spain, such as the grave illness of King Alfonso XIII, and these stories created a false impression of Spain as especially hard hit. This gave rise to the pandemic's nickname, "Spanish flu".

anyway, italy and spain are both in precarious economic positions but under the circumstances, i don't see them pushing for an EU exit and i also see significant EU assistance coming their way.

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: Jeremy Franklin on March 23, 2020, 06:03:37 AM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on March 18, 2020, 04:06:18 AM

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

If the virus hits Africa, most of the African states will get in huge trouble. The same goes for South America, if you look at Venezuela. The rich industrial states in Europe, the US, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Japan and also China will overcome this pandemic. It will be pricy but those countries will stand it. For everyone else.. good luck.

Not Italy. I believe their down-playing of the pandemic will cost their falling economy more, than if they implemeted quarantines earlier.

thesmallgod

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The poorest country of course. Countries with a bad economy, low standard of living and poor health sector. Such countries might able to contain the outbreak which might further damage the economy of such countries. Unfortunately, most of these countries are in Africa according to https://www.concernusa.org/story/worlds-poorest-countries/. Liberia which was hit by the ebola outbreak in 2014 has been regarded as the poorest country in the world.

FanEagle

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Italy is by far the most affected for sure, I have seen pictures of "ghost town" type of situations where there was no one around and that kind of means economy stops. Economy is not something that can afford to stop or give a break, it has to continue forever to keep churning profits or as soon as it stops we are talking about a global crisis.

It means Italy is about to have something so huge that other nations will start to get affected because of it, France is next and then Spain will be following them, after that it is impossible to think Germany will be unaffected and of course UK ... as you can see it is going from one place to another and economy will be basically destroyed in general in all of Europe because of this. Hopefully it will be recovered but it will take a lot of time before we are back on regular days economically.

snipie

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Quote from: Jeremy Franklin on March 23, 2020, 06:03:37 AM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on March 18, 2020, 04:06:18 AM

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

If the virus hits Africa, most of the African states will get in huge trouble. The same goes for South America, if you look at Venezuela. The rich industrial states in Europe, the US, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Japan and also China will overcome this pandemic. It will be pricy but those countries will stand it. For everyone else.. good luck.

In Africa the ones that risk dying are the old folks, those who have many diseases and the poor people. So asking their wealthy politicians to save few hundreds or few thousands of them isn't obvious unfortunately. For Venezuela, people are struggling to get some food and a normal health care in an ordinary day so the infection will not make the situation worse imo since it is already very bad..

Jeremy Franklin

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on March 18, 2020, 04:06:18 AM

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

If the virus hits Africa, most of the African states will get in huge trouble. The same goes for South America, if you look at Venezuela. The rich industrial states in Europe, the US, Canada, Australia, South Korea, Japan and also China will overcome this pandemic. It will be pricy but those countries will stand it. For everyone else.. good luck.

snipie

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Italy and Spain are the most affected by the virus in Europe until now however Italexit or Spainexit will not happen imo for the moment unless an irreversible damage would happen or in case of surprising major rise of eurosceptic party inside one of them.
It is true that EU is not responding very well until now to help the most affected countries however it has many reserve money that will be mobilised to boost the economy whenever this epidemic situation will be resolved, and i don't think Italy nor Spain will take a risk to rebuild their damaged economy without the help of EU.

Wind_FURY

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Quote from: iv4n on March 22, 2020, 04:47:52 AM

Quote from: Wind_FURY on March 18, 2020, 04:06:18 AM

Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?

It's a guessing game, so I will choose Italy! They were in problems before this, for years they are on edge with their economy. They are pretty badly hit by virus, some news about them is that they can bury all the people who have died. If EU don't help with some huge financial assistance package they will be in huge problems.

Quote from: Wind_FURY on March 22, 2020, 03:33:32 AM

Another question, would some of the other countries of the European Union start proposing their own "Brexits"? Which country will propose to leave next after the UK?

Same answer, Italy! If they don't get financial, and all other kind of aid, they will probably leave EU. They are on the edge for years, this is the situation that can easily push them over that edge!

Haha. I believe the others will leave too, IF they see by being within the EU, will have no economic advantage after the pandemic. Their people need to eat, and their economy a bail out.

Lordshiva

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Cant tell about other countries...but in my country it has already shown a lot of effect withing few days....the share market has crashed as it has never been...and if this continues at this rate for some more time then danger times are coming

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