Topic: The Corona Pandemic economic guessing game - page 8. (Read 1167 times)
The likely victim of economic crash would be the third world countries that have a lot of cases. The reason is that their countries are focusing on manpower which will be crippled by pandemic.
The Corona virus ncov-19 have been very destructive in the lives of many people around the globe It has spread across borders that it had been considered already as a pandemic. Surely, it would greatly affect third world countries that doesn't have great technological and health facilities unlike rich countries to combat the virus especially, thos countries that have more people in poor areas such as squatters in which the rate of spreading of the virus would be high.
With no pre-emptive measures, third world countries are in a great danger.
With no pre-emptive measures, third world countries are in a great danger.
Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?
It's a guessing game, so I will choose Italy! They were in problems before this, for years they are on edge with their economy. They are pretty badly hit by virus, some news about them is that they can bury all the people who have died. If EU don't help with some huge financial assistance package they will be in huge problems.
Another question, would some of the other countries of the European Union start proposing their own "Brexits"? Which country will propose to leave next after the UK?
Same answer, Italy! If they don't get financial, and all other kind of aid, they will probably leave EU. They are on the edge for years, this is the situation that can easily push them over that edge!
Another question, would some of the other countries of the European Union start proposing their own "Brexits"? Which country will propose to leave next after the UK?
obviously, it is first including the country china. And European union country faces big problem mostly Italy. It is affected all over the world almost 150 countries cross the the great harmful problem corona virus.
I don't know if it is related to the pandemic, a friend of mine told me that Lebanon did not pay a $1.2bn Eurobond payment, and has already defaulted on March 9, 2020.
No it is not related. Lebanon defaulted paying its debts due to the social/political movement that led the old government to dissolve, banks to close and/or limit withdrawal of workers money, limiting the use of other FIAT... The situation there is very complex without mentioning the repercussions of the Syrian war.Corona pandemic is just adding flavor to the mixed sauce.
for me this is no longer a matter of just one country but the whole world is also getting its effects.
I will not speculate with the hardships that have occurred in a country.
this virus has no antidote so it can continue to spread throughout the world.
I will not speculate with the hardships that have occurred in a country.
this virus has no antidote so it can continue to spread throughout the world.
I don't know if it is related to the pandemic, a friend of mine told me that Lebanon did not pay a $1.2bn Eurobond payment, and has already defaulted on March 9, 2020.
Isn't the goal of quarantines is to stop infections from spreading? I'm confused.
With diseases like the coronavirus you can't truly stop them, only slow them down, which is the goal right now.
I believe 6 months of no/truly low economic productivity/output is enough to default countries with weak economies. Plus the damage of the pandemic.
Entertainment industry, tourism, etc. are taking a huge hit now, but people still go to work in many places, and office jobs allow their workers to work from home. It's not like the economy if fully stopped. And quarantine shouldn't last 6 months, the epidemic might, but the quarantine should be over when the epidemic will start slowing down.
The question was, guessing what country's government would default first. Italy? Iraq?
And my answer was - no country will default. But if you want to make a good guess, I'd say it might be a country that already has weak economy and would be most affected by the anti-epidemic measures, so maybe it's some poor country that lives off tourism.
My prediction is that no country will have to declare default as the result of the coronavirus, because all countries will manage to deal with this epidemic, even if some will have it way worse than the others. China says they are already past the peak of this epidemic, and while their economy took a hit they are nowhere near bankruptcy. I think even Italy will manage.
But if the pandemic lasts longer than thought, no defaults? Impossible.
Well, the goal of a quarantine is actually to make the epidemic to last longer to spread the diseases cases over longer period of time, so that the hospitals always have enough capacity to threat people and as the result less people die.
Isn't the goal of quarantines is to stop infections from spreading? I'm confused.
Quote
I think the current predictions say that this pandemic will last for a half a year or a year, but this doesn't mean that quarantine measures will last this long too.
I believe 6 months of no/truly low economic productivity/output is enough to default countries with weak economies. Plus the damage of the pandemic.
Quote
And economists say that this year will still have global economic growth, though it will be much smaller, something like 1.25%
The question was, guessing what country's government would default first. Italy? Iraq?
I guess Italy but it's already dead at some point hope they will still produce what they produced before
Hoping for the quick recovery of Italy.As a recent news country of Italy announced 627 death overnight. I hope it will not spread more.
The Philippines (our country) is most likely the best country to nominate being bankrupt due to coronavirus. The Philippines is a small island with fewer medical facilities. The government declared an intense quarantine forcing all the people to stay at home. Since the businesses are small, they cannot afford to pay their workers without work.
Businesses were forced to stop their operations. Revenues are going down. They have a lack of funds. I'm afraid the country will be bankrupt because of the pandemic coronavirus.
My prediction is that no country will have to declare default as the result of the coronavirus, because all countries will manage to deal with this epidemic, even if some will have it way worse than the others. China says they are already past the peak of this epidemic, and while their economy took a hit they are nowhere near bankruptcy. I think even Italy will manage.
But if the pandemic lasts longer than thought, no defaults? Impossible.
Well, the goal of a quarantine is actually to make the epidemic to last longer to spread the diseases cases over longer period of time, so that the hospitals always have enough capacity to threat people and as the result less people die. I think the current predictions say that this pandemic will last for a half a year or a year, but this doesn't mean that quarantine measures will last this long too. And economists say that this year will still have global economic growth, though it will be much smaller, something like 1.25%
I guess Italy but it's already dead at some point hope they will still produce what they produced before
Hoping for the quick recovery of Italy.As a recent news country of Italy announced 627 death overnight. I hope it will not spread more.
The Philippines (our country) is most likely the best country to nominate being bankrupt due to coronavirus. The Philippines is a small island with fewer medical facilities. The government declared an intense quarantine forcing all the people to stay at home. Since the businesses are small, they cannot afford to pay their workers without work.
Businesses were forced to stop their operations. Revenues are going down. They have a lack of funds. I'm afraid the country will be bankrupt because of the pandemic coronavirus.
I can't do anything at home but just to watch and wait until there's already the cure for the disease. I've heard the news lately that some countries are already doing it and hopefully, a positive feedback will be reported soon.
I guess Italy but it's already dead at some point hope they will still produce what they produced before
Hoping for the quick recovery of Italy.As a recent news country of Italy announced 627 death overnight. I hope it will not spread more.
The Philippines (our country) is most likely the best country to nominate being bankrupt due to coronavirus. The Philippines is a small island with fewer medical facilities. The government declared an intense quarantine forcing all the people to stay at home. Since the businesses are small, they cannot afford to pay their workers without work.
Businesses were forced to stop their operations. Revenues are going down. They have a lack of funds. I'm afraid the country will be bankrupt because of the pandemic coronavirus.
I'm gonna guess its the countries that are already on the verge of economic collapse, those which have unsustainable debt and whose economies are relatively fragile:
Country with debt/GDP ratio:
- Portugal 119.46%
- Italy 133.43%
- Greece 174.15%
- Spain 95.96%
Spain has actually been improving as of late, but these 4 countries have collectively been known as the PIGS for at least 10 years for having too much debt.
Regarding the situation for the moment and expecting a stabilisation of the situation after 4-6 weeks at least before the economy starts working again at +75% of what used to be, then if Italy and Spain managed to stabilise its economies then it will be a miracle. The collapse is happening right now, bankruptcy will not be so far if a lockdown will be maintained until summer!Country with debt/GDP ratio:
- Portugal 119.46%
- Italy 133.43%
- Greece 174.15%
- Spain 95.96%
Spain has actually been improving as of late, but these 4 countries have collectively been known as the PIGS for at least 10 years for having too much debt.
Germany has a powerful economy, France has a good one too and can survive, Northern European countries are highly affected but can manage it too if they slower down the progression of the disease. Eastern European countries aren't that much affected for the moment which is lucky for them because if they have the same situation as Italy or Spain then not only its economy will collapse but the European Union will!
I guess Italy but it's already dead at some point hope they will still produce what they produced before
Hoping for the quick recovery of Italy.They have the highest death rate now and even higher than China. I've heard the news about Russia and US testing for antidote and hoping for the success of that test.
Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?
To the government of those countries where the most infected with the COVID-19 virus (China, Italy, Spain). Small and medium-sized businesses in these countries suffered greatly due to the virus and panic caused by it, which led to an increase in prices for literally everything that is possible. The true exception to all this is the pharmacy business. Owners are very pleased with the current state of affairs, selling masks and medicines at inflated prices.
I guess Italy but it's already dead at some point hope they will still produce what they produced before
Italy will be the likely candidate, as it is one of the worst country that is being hit by the virus outside of China. Death toll already surpassed 2,500, and the demographics itself, country has the second-oldest population on earth. And obviously, the younger generation respect their elders in a Catholic country like Italy that's why the spread is unprecedented. And I think we can consider Italy now as ground zero, so it have slowed down their economy in the last month or so.
Italy is just first that was hit hard after China. That dont mean that at the end of pandemic they will be hit most. Usually in pandemic is even better to be hit early since you can get some help from other countries. Right now there are many countries on same path as was China and Italy and will be way less help for those in need.
Which country's government will be the most affected by the COVID-19 global pandemic, and be the first to go bankrupt, and default?
Developung countries are the one's who definitely most afffect in global pandemic of corona virus that a lot of business will go bankrupt, productions of foods will be stopped and a lot of people will starve to death, that is why a lot of countries are helping each other to avoid these problems. Jump to: