Topic: The Corona Pandemic economic guessing game - page 9. (Read 1167 times)

The EU will suffer the most, simply due to their alleged "integrity, friendship and support". Each country will only act in its own interests to stabilize the situation as soon as possible
THE GAME HAS BEGUN

The only solution to stop the spread of the virus is to shut down gatherings which includes shopping malls and other commercial places and during this phase manufacturing will be affected and that means the entire financial structure will be affected and we are not seeing any slowdown yet and the virus is spreading to many countries and in the next few months i am expecting a financial meltdown globally. Right now many countries are providing financial packages to aide the economy during this phase. 

Okay , I do think it will be Italy .
They are abandoning their population .
Treatment is not being given to people after the age of 80.
It's even worse then China .
Italians are dancing around the world spreading the Virus .

Other than that I think it could be Ukraine too . .
Right now with only 26 cases but banks are already selling off stocks to maintain to currency .
Government is hiding a lot .
Citizens are not even contacting the doctors .
It will suddenly cause a big pop trust me .

Indeed, no country will ever go bankrupt because of this virus spreading all through out the globe, why? Because we are not alone in this fight, i have already seen countries helping one another by donating equipments needed to fight the virus and by that no country will go zero. Yes, the effect will differs on each country as well as the damaged to their economics but it will be no neara country being bankrupt.

But if the pandemic lasts longer than thought, no defaults? Impossible.


Or some country in South America, if COVID-19 infects/kills their people very quickly in numbers like in Italy/Spain.

My prediction is that no country will have to declare default as the result of the coronavirus, because all countries will manage to deal with this epidemic, even if some will have it way worse than the others. China says they are already past the peak of this epidemic, and while their economy took a hit they are nowhere near bankruptcy. I think even Italy will manage.

Perhaps it will be some small and poor African country or some other developing country, but those might be saved by IMF or other sources of international aid.

 obviously those countries that are heavily affected by the virus and those countries are china  and italy   . so far those countries i remember that are suffering too much  but i also heard that china are recovering now and back to business but dont know bout italy maybe italy is also the next country that will recover on the virus   .  btw what is your goal for asking this question  , can we expect a reward with it ? because what i read its a guessing game   . i dont know but i think its not good to predict if what country are to bankrupt but we what more we need right now is a good news and positivity

Italy has the biggest government debt in the EU and Italy is the country with most infected people.The Italian economy simply isn't working.There are no tourists and no restaurants working.However,I don't think that Italy might go bankrupt.The European central bank will print billions of euro and buy Italian government bonds,in order to keep the country "above the water".All countries in the world will be damaged in one way or another.

Honestly, the first thing come to my mind is of course the first country affected which is China. But since we already heard on news that they are now recovering and near to go back to normal then I just get rid of the idea. Besides, they are one of the most superior country so I don't think this pandemic will be the cause of their fall down.

Anyway, no offense mate but you should now stop running those things on your mind right now. Much better if all of us will become optimistic during the time of crisis and adding prayers too. Instead of spreading bad vibes, let's focus more on the bright side please .

I try to search about bankrupt country and the meaning is the country have big loan without have ability to pay, we can call it bankrupt. But in global economic world there's chance loan can be erase but of course depend in which organization they join, so there's no bankrupt country. All country have effect from Corona but the biggest is in China, they can struggle because have equipment and fund but will never survive if they fight alone.

Sadly enough, I would guess greece. Due to their cultural trend of tax evasion coupled with big government spending producing not much in tangible benefits for their society. They seem to have also been bailed out the most. The European Union would also appear ill prepared to cope with global pandemics due to their insistence on open borders. And prioritizing the needs of illegal immigrants above their own native demographics.

I can't remember whether the united states or european union carried a larger deficit in proportion to GDP. Its so difficult to find an accurate statistic for exactly how many trillions of euros the EU is in debt. I don't think anyone knows the answer.

Let me have a close guess, Italy.
Before the pandemic, Italy has been suffering from economic crisis (I haven't read much about it).
Adds to the burden that hurt their economic status is the covid-19 that continuously devastating the country with the highest mortality rate right now, breaking the China's rate.
With the current lockdown in most part of the Italy, I don't think it will do any good to their economy.

Well we have different kinds of views and perceptions, I guess the if things gets to worst and all countries are lockdown, and no more trading of goods from other countries, then my opinion is the one whose country is self sustaining will be able to overcome such problem. If people starts to think that paper money is nothing and food is more important, then they would farm for survival and leave out everything else. This means lands which crops grows in all seasons will be able to survive right, and countries with harsh climates will have a hard time looking for food, if the pandemic will be on a large scale and will be longer, maybe for at least 2 years or more.

Italy by far, China is so crowded that you can literally kill a million people there and they would keep on being powerful, I am sure until 100 million it must be around the same but when it is death in a crowded one specific area that is both worse and better for economy, it is worse for that place and whatever that nation was getting from that area, but better because all else continues like nothing happened.

France, Spain, UK, USA all will be affected, they will probably have a horrible horrible 2 months ahead if we can't get a cure, however if they actually succeed something like that nobody will be too much affected because cure would help both infected and the economy. Yet when it comes to "most affected" it is obviously Italy, they are basically just staying inside until this passes, all business are closed.

I'm gonna guess its the countries that are already on the verge of economic collapse, those which have unsustainable debt and whose economies are relatively fragile:

Country with debt/GDP ratio:

- Portugal 119.46%
- Italy 133.43%
- Greece 174.15%
- Spain 95.96%

Spain has actually been improving as of late, but these 4 countries have collectively been known as the PIGS for at least 10 years for having too much debt.

It's maybe the reason why Italy was late in implementing its national quarantine. The government knew that it would weaken their already weak economy, possibly defaulting. Because of not doing it early, they will suffer a worse economic crisis, AND a health crisis.

not to mention that italy's economy has already been on the edge for a while. this time last year, economists were already speculating about a greek-style financial crisis in italy and how it poses a threat to the entire euro zone.

speak of the devil. this just in from the new york times: A New Hurt in Italy From the Coronavirus: A Banking Crisis

I think the country that will suffer the most because of this pandemic virus is Italy. Although the virus originated from China and many people there were infected, they know how to handle this kind of situation. It is also stated that many people have already recovered from it and less people are now reported infected. As for Italy, it has now the largest number of infected people and many people already died from it. If the virus keeps on spreading, there will be many patients to be treated, and the recovery of them will take longer as well as the recovery of their economic status.

I am certain that it is China. They are the origin of the virus and a lot of people died in the country, They should also be blamed since instead of containing the people to avoid the pandemic, they did not do it. They are one of the biggest markets and had a lot of exports to other countries but with the lockdown, they can't export goods to other countries. Other countries are affected that are related to China's not able to trade or export goods like Japan.

In my opinion, the most disadvantaged are China and the most benefited country is the United States, because, in reality, the value of the dollar is getting stronger. China is a great power country that wants to become a superpower country like the United States, unfortunately, China only wins in trade transactions or has a large reserve capital but loses in the military, integration of its power, currency, and hegemony.

The global supply chain is currently controlled by America, for example, an industry in India, they import goods from Thailand, Romania, Costa Rica and a few percents of products from Thailand require raw materials from China. With China shut down for several months due to the coronavirus, Thailand, Romania will fail to send to India by force majeure reasons. America is attacking China's supply and demand with Corona.

China counteracted this by making a foreign direct investment to many developing countries in the world through the OBOR program. China has a large reserve currency that is used as a proxy weapon for a dollar to enter China. The way the dollar enters China is by investing in exported products.

America has a surefire strategy so that Chinese investment in developing countries does not generate dollars, that is, how to get those Chinese partner countries to pay high taxes.