Topic: The impact of Russian and Ukrain war on world economy - page 31. (Read 13382 times)

Russia is bound to lose the economic war. European countries that rely on it for energy sources like coal, oil, etc. are looking for alternatives from other countries already. Ukraine is receiving all the support it can get from the democratic west while Russia is receiving favors from China if I am not mistaken. China is a formidable foe and a great support at that, but numbers are the name of the game. I just hope this doesn't escalate anymore into anything worse, a war of global scale is slowly tipping towards us and it's not gonna look good for everyone involved. If a war happens the economy will be the least of our worries as we make sure we don't die of bullets, nukes, or starvation while these superpowers test their toys out.

Russia will soon face a real financial collapse worth billions of dollars, associated with a complete embargo on the export of petroleum products to Europe. The oil ceiling is already "mowing down" Russian revenues, but the worst is yet to come for Russia.
So far, Russia is able to sell any volumes of oil at a discount to India and China, but oil products, for which Europe will close its market in February, Moscow will not be able to sell to Asia. The Chinese and Indians have their own large oil refining capacities, so they do not need oil products from the Russian Federation. They can only buy crude oil, and then at a deep discount.

The only way out for Moscow is to cut production and mothball wells, some of them permanently. Thus Russia will lose billions of dollars.

And so, on December 7, 2022, the terrorist, who said yesterday that "the special operation is going according to plan and the previously planned schedule," gives out - "Putin announced problems at the front and urged to prepare for a long war" ))

... And on December 8, the pot price of Urals oil fell to $54 per barrel. This is the "buy here and now" price. Discount on contracts - 30-40%. The discount on the "gray oil" that China and India buy out is even greater. The price of oil in the budget is 70+ dollars per barrel

I do not think that all these measures are taken without clear reasons and goals. Perhaps the increase in military spending reflects the extent of Russia's failure in confronting a small country militarily like Ukraine, but it confirms the continuation of the military operation until its goals are achieved. Which seems to have changed with the course of the war and the map of alliances between all the major world powers, not just the direct parties to the conflict. Everyone is currently afraid of the expansion of the war to include other countries, especially those countries that openly supported Ukraine against Russia and several other countries in the Russian crosshairs, most of whom resorted to trying to hide under the umbrella of NATO, which does not really seem able to protect them, given that all the major countries Its constituents avoid entering into a direct confrontation with Russia.

Economic and other successes, the leader of a terrorist organization called "Russia":

December 5, 2022
Putin approved the reduction of spending on the economy and a record increase in funding for the army, police and special services
The president signed the law on the budget, where every third ruble will go to the security forces, and every fourth is classified.

I will decipher: from the entire budget of Russia (which is heading downhill, and from January 2023 it will accelerate the fall), 30% + 25% goes to terrorism! At the same time, according to Russian tradition, 50% of this budget will be plundered!
Those. for the economy, social sphere, education, medicine, pensions, and so on - budgets are being cut (this is the greatness of Russia ) and for the army - it will grow many times, and 25% will go for no clear reason, and 30% for the next technological fakes

The most vulnerable are already paying dearly.  The rate of homelessness and the number of working class unable to afford the basic essential is has skyrocketed. The divide between the rich and the poor has increased. We already know the impact on energy prices as Europe has been getting the best energy prices till now by direct trade through Russian pipelines, and now that the price has gone from double to triple with the resultant effect being more and more inflation within Europe.

I don't know how long this war will last, Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelenskyy are still in their own right, and neither of them wants to give up. What I'm worried about is attracting other countries to war, and of course, the damage will be widespread.
What I'm also afraid of, is when the economy starts to stabilize again in various industrial sectors and prices start to improve from food to oil in any part of the world, there is still the potential for another explosion because this tension has not reached a meeting point between the two. I hope that this war ends quickly and does not cause new problems so that the economic cycle returns to normal and is stable.

The problem is that the losses are not restricted to Russia and Ukraine. Other countries are also suffering from increase in oil, gas, coal and fertilizer prices. US and the other NATO nations have spent close to $100 billion so far in military aid to Ukraine. The only group of countries who are profiting right now are the OEPC bloc. They are selling their oil and gas at rates much above the market levels, to both Europe and Asia. US could have stepped in and taken measures to increase their domestic oil/gas production. But they have refused to do that till now.

the damage they both has done to the world is irreparable - it will take the next decade to come back to the normal
Life is already very tough and Russia is happy creating life tougher for us

It's been 10 months of the Russian vs Ukraine War and of course made a huge loss for Ukraine, while Russia is a large country with a very strong military economic power so that it is not too affected, especially the position of Russia is a country of the attacking, a very large infrastructure loss and takes a long time for Ukraine to get up again.

Yes, the world, over the past 9 months, after the Covid19 pandemic, has gone through difficult times, but coped with all critical problems with sufficient quality. Yes, a couple of years later, echoes of this will be heard, but everything is being corrected and returned to normal. But who really lost - this is a "dummy" country, which for the last 20 years has been building out of itself the second pole of the world, the second frame of the world, well, and other fairy tale stories about itself invented and carried around the world. Well, in the end, did Russia get it in 9 months?
1. Resurrected NATO
2. Were addicted to China
3. Lost $300+ billion in gold reserves
4. Lost the market for oil, gas and oil products in Europe
5. Lost a significant part of the export of metals, timber
6. Lost a huge amount of demographically important young
7. Impoverishment of the population has become systemic and massive
8. We have lost a huge number of in-demand young professionals with promising professions.
9. Accelerated the outflow of capital many times over.
10. We lost the space launch market and scientific space too.
11. LOST THE AUTO INDUSTRY COMPLETELY
12. Lost the air travel market
13. Turned into outcasts and sponsors of terrorism.
14. The US Treasury allowed Chevron to extract and import oil from Venezuela
.....and many other "achievements"

Yes, after recapturing some provinces because Russia announced the withdrawal of Ukraine troops very excitedly and with solid support from the US and the west, they will not sit at the negotiating table with any of the Russian demands. I don't think this war will end anytime soon without US consent but surely, the US will never let this war end because the US is trying to get Russia more profound into the war, and it will benefit them. They will be willing to spend billions of dollars more on weapons to increase aid to Ukraine to fight to the last Ukrainian, not the last American.

A few months back, Russia was ready to end the war, but the condition was that areas under Russian military control will remain with them. Ukraine refused, saying that Russia need to cede the territory that was conquered. And after the ceasefire talks broke down, Ukraine re-captured large swathes of territory back from Russia, including almost all of Kharkov, Nikolaev and Kherson oblasts. Ukraine is advancing right now, with help from the western military aid. So at this point, they are in no mood to agree to a ceasefire.

Do we really know that Russia isn’t ready to end the war, or at least at the stage of starting to consider it?  We all know this war has gone anything but the way Putin had planned it, and I think a lot of the Russian people who weren’t already against it are starting to turn on the idea of it.

Either way, I hope it happens sooner than later. It’s not doing any of us any good across the globe.

Both the country people are experiencing the worse scenario. Russia isn't ready to end the war. Atleast NATO have mentioned no nuclear war and failing would make the country face the consequences. The war have setback big economic difficulty as both the countries are huge exporters of food and oil. Ukraine exports half the world's sunflower oil requirement. Human lives have turned valueless, if not wider thinking could've concluded the war.

Yesterday there was a statement from Führerin Ursula von der Leyen that Ukraine has lost more than 100,000 soldiers till now (killed, not including those who are wounded or captured). None of the other NATO members (perhaps with the exception of United States and Turkey) can afford this many casualties. In other EU nations, they can't even afford a few thousand casualties. When UK armed forces suffered a few hundred casualties in Afghanistan, there was a lot of hue and cry in that country. The same will be the case in other EU nations as well.

Inflation is like the winter cycle of crypto. Like it or not, it happens, you can't expect an economy that just grows and doesn't fluctuate. If you are struggling with inflation, be better prepared for the next inflation, invest in bitcoin, you will find inflation no longer affects you.


I don't know if it's Russia's test for the EU, but in terms of military capabilities, I don't appreciate the EU because they depend on the US, they can't do anything without the US, the US is like a babysitter. But anyway the story of 2 rockets is over and without any countermeasures happening otherwise we will see WW3.

This is easily explained.
The Kremlin terrorist is well aware that:
1. The usual war against Ukraine is lost
2. Nuclear blackmail, Putin was told to put it in his ass, otherwise he would just be beaten
3. It is customary in Russia that after another lost war (and there are a lot of them in the history of this miserable state, there are a lot of under-empires, against the backdrop of victories), the overthrow of the "defective tsar", a revolution and decades of deepest crisis.
3.1. Moreover, this time it will no longer be possible to beg for help, food and money from the West. Russia is an international terrorist country with all the ensuing consequences
4. Therefore, you must lose as if you did not lose. Provoke NATO, and then raise your hands and say - well, you see, NATO and the whole world have opposed us ... I don’t want to destroy them all, I’m kind, we will sign a peace treaty.
But it won't. A second chance for a cancerous tumor called "rashism" will not be given....

I'm starting to think that EU actually covered it and lied about the missile being from Ukraine. In other words I believe that there is a good chance that it was indeed Russia that intentionally attacked Poland to send a message.
The reason why they are covering it up is because NATO is not ready for a direct war (as opposed to the ongoing proxy war through Ukraine) that could bring nuclear annihilation. Specially when we read the news about more than half of NATO members are already out of weapons and the rest are starting to run out!

You've got that right. Wars are unpredictable. They can cause pain to both countries, especially in the economy and the number of lives lost. While the war is only between Russia and Ukraine, the world is suffering dearly because the two countries are one of the major exporters of goods and commodities. This causes severe economic pain just like it was the case during WWI and WWII.

Unless the current war comes to an end, don't expect inflation to disappear anytime soon. Expect food, oil, and energy prices to continue soaring during the course of the conflict. It'll be up to both countries to come into a peace agreement, to end this nightmare for good. I hope the global economy recovers so we could live a normal life once again. No one knows what the future holds, so we can only hope for the best. Just my thoughts