I think we can find answers in LN statistics and the main one for going mainstream will be merchant/wallets/sevices adoption.
https://lightningnetworkstores.com/stats
As we can see there are actually 382 registered stores that are using LN.
When we look further at https://lightningnetworkstores.com/ site, we will find that there are additionally 30 wallets and 9 services.
Not too much taking into consideration 3 years from mainnet.
https://lightningnetworkstores.com/wallets
For LN to be widely adopted it has to be easy to use and maybe one day it will but despite efforts at least for now it is still way too complicated and buggy.
I have just read @Bitcryptex walkthrough of the Lightning Network support in the recent Electrum update and for me, it is just obvious that 90% of people will never touch it until everything will be working in the background without them even noticing it. Until we have to set up something and additionally the process involves a lot of steps then there is not much hope for mainstream adoption.
Of course, this is only my opinion and I will be happy to hear yours?
I believe the problem with open source projects is that the majority of problem-solvers are engineers, without input from front-end/UX designers. We then get a solution primarily from an engineering standpoint that doesn't look pretty, and/or it's not easy to use for ordinary users.