The OP has a point. Bitcoin was designed to be a means to pay for goods and services without the interference of governments and central banks. In other words it was designed for average people that want to buy sandwiches using something other than fiat currency. This is absolutely fundamental to the arguments for or against Bitcoin in general, regardless of it being an investment vehicle. What I see as a huge problem on this forum that seems to consume the majority of those involved in Bitcoin is that they ONLY see it as an investment. It wasn't designed to be an investment. It just so happens, due to it being first and the best publicized, it has turned into something that most people who are aware of it see SOLELY as an investment. I can feel the denials formulating already. But whenever I've been asked about it by random people who have no experience in investing, they have NO CONCEPT of it being used as a currency. Even if they do, they have no clue how they'd use it to buy goods and services.
This is not a formula for stability or growth. For the sake of full disclosure, I was aware of Bitcoin back in 2011 if not earlier. Where I live I didn't trust the buying process and the hassle of it made me miss the boat. I had at least $10,000 at the time that was in my mind to SPECULATE on it as something similar to any other currency. That was then...and back then people who were interested in Bitcoin were NOTHING like the attitudes that I deduce in the posts that I see. Back then people were realistic (2011). Now I feel like I'm witnessing a modern version of Tulip-mania....people who are utterly blinded and consumed by greed.
First, supply of coins is irrelevant. There could be one BTC split into 21,000,000 pieces, 200,000,000 pieces, etc. Each piece can literally be the same value of one individual coin.
Second, the as price goes up the odds of becoming a millionaire fall precipitously. If most people were having these conversations back in 2011 or earlier, you'd have valid points about the potential for vast future wealth. But at $3,000+ those days are over. You've missed the proverbial boat. Certainly you have a chance of making money...but most of you need to accept that you are speculating....you are no longer investing. Again, the vast majority of money sitting and holding BTC are not using it to buy or sell. The fact that it went up as much as it did this year essentially proves that 90-95% holding BTC are just speculators that have no intention of ever using it to buy something. In fact I have yet to meet anyone holding BTC that has actually bought anything with it.
I don't understand why so many people don't see a problem with this. The only thing I can attribute it to is age and inexperience. As an experienced investor myself, I made 1300% investing in UTILITY stocks over a period of 9 years. For those that don't know what that means, it says that I made more money investing in the most stable, non-volatile type of company than even the best performing mutual funds over the same period of time. I'm not saying that this makes me an expert or an oracle. All I'm saying is that I got in at the best possible time...but with respect to these companies now, they've barely moved in the past 3 years.
IMO...the price and individual investor profile of the average holder of BTC is resembles that of a Ponzi scheme. The cheerleading for the price to only go higher with the assumptions that drops and pullbacks can only possibly be temporary only strengthens my fears. People don't want to face the facts that other currencies can come out with better features than BTC, governments can (and are working on) issue their own altcoins that will offer more stability to merchants in day-to-day transactions...and this is what most merchants care about. People have argued with me before that restaurants, for example, will hold their BTC for the sake of "investment". These same individuals obviously know nothing about what it means to be in the food industry. If a restauranteur is going to invest in BTC they'll do it on their own time after profits have been cleared. It's an apples vs. oranges thing...much to the dismay of speculators who believe that everyone shares their enthusiasm.
So what keeps me from investing in BTC? The price has gone up too far too fast. There are far too many speculators and not even close to enough day-to-day users that put their coins to use to buy or sell. There are too many governments working on their own coins that the average consumer (not speculator) will prefer to use. I'm as libertarian as one can be, but I know that most people do not think like I do. Bitcoins scare them because they don't understand it. They understand their fiat currencies enough to trust their use, even if they are largely clueless to the fraud and theft that they represent. I think that the average person on the forum needs to wake up to this reality as well.
My own beliefs....if BTC falls into the $1500-2000 range over the next 6-12 months, buy as much as you can and dump it after gains of 40-100% depending on how fast it runs up. If someone is buying it now, you are committing the most common mistake of those who lose their money in markets...buying on "highs" and letting greed rule. I could be wrong, but historically (and even on BTC charts) I'm probably not. Good luck and rethink your strategies....since so far I don't see many strategies for how BTC could be treated as an investment...which requires arguments "against". All I see is greed and entitlement.
Holy crap, that is a huge essay, how long did it take you to write it. First post and you have already made a huge impression on a lot of readers here.
Bitcoin was designed for average people to buy products without interference from the government, but the blockchain is too congested for it to do so.
Everything else is well written and I agree with it. You write a mean essay!
