Topic: The UFC Info and Prediction Thread - page 107. (Read 100833 times)

I dont know why bookmakers gave Arman Tsarukyan role of such a big favorite like odds are showing, but I think Beneil Dariush is not without chances in this fight.
This is maybe his best chance to come back after losing so easy from Charles Oliveira, and he is not getting any younger.
Figueiredo fight is also interesting and I think he is going to win against Font.

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^ Honestly, I am not going to trust a fighter like him to win. Because as you said, he has a literally zebra record. It is literally like flipping a coin. I don't think I have seen any fighter have a 50-50 record like this. It is just too risky to trust him. And I honestly think that compared to him his opponent, Silva actually has a better record. And it will make more sense to actually trust Silva in this fight. But the thing is he does have a lot of experience. And since it is like flipping a coin, you never know, he might actually end up winning. But if it was me, I would have trusted Silva a lot more.

Luck plays a huge role in MMA, it's not only about skills. Conor McGregor's 13-Second KO of Jose Aldo is a great example of how luck matters. I know they are both skilled but Jose could really beat McGregor. I think even the Jon Jones can be beaten by underdog if luck strikes. But maybe this is really a very bald statement.

It doesn't work like that in UFC. While we see football matches one or two times a week, if fighters were to fight every week, people won't be interested in them. It's the rarity of their fights that make people hyped up.

If the match is 50/50 then there's lots of value for Dariush at 3.20 making it +EV and should make you money long term if you keep taking these spots.  I think the books are thinking that Dariush is getting KO'd as he did vs Charles Oliveira.  Tsakuryan very may well could but then again, MMA is such a nuanced sport that there's a larger degree of unpredictability than say..  boxing.

Anyway another interesting match up could be Sean Brady vs Gastelum.  If Gastelum looks good on the scale, he could win this one.

Clay Guida   vs Silva seems to be fight worth to watch. Guida is a unique fighter. I think I observe him fighting all my ufc-watching-career. 60+ fight already as a professional, zebra record, likes to brawn and often covers octagon with blood A perfect mix for these-two-guys-gonna-show-us-something-interesting-now kind a fight. The guys a funny record besides. 35 fight in UFC, 18 wins and 17 losses Perfect zebra record. Betting on him is like flipping a coin

Actually, I Like your choices mostly the Arman Tsarukyan, Bobby Green, and Joaquim Silva for seeing their latest fight records and stats for they will do fine with each of their opponents my only concern is Clay Guida's experience on the ground for sure if Joaquim Silva can defended all of those takedowns he can manage to control the situations and for sure I am doubting Guida's age he is now 41 years old and could anytime announce his retirement, but for sure Joaquim Silva is way younger and for sure can be stronger and faster than Guida, and could also counter his attempts going into the ground,


Actually, I hate math so for sure I will not get any formulas and computations when accessing a fight, for after seeing both fighter's previous fights I think Arman Tsarukyan had many advantages that could seem helpful in any way, but regardless of what may happen with the actual fight we don't really know for sure all we can do is to speculate and try to think of what may happen inside the octagon if the 2 fight, Islam Makhachev is a great fighter and for sure a great candidate so we can see what a fighter can do, for sure he is the Barometer to scale a fighter if what he can do with a certain fighter,


For some reason there could be a chance for Beneil Dariush to win and what can we say it is really tempting to bet on the underdog and if there could be a profitable bet that would be in betting with the underdogs for sure but I still don't think that the Risk is still there and I am really looking high and mighty on Arman Tsarukyan right now I really don't know but also got tempted in making a bet on Dariush as well,

For sure some fighters have 2 to 3 fights and then UFC decided to give them a title shot that fast, and there is a success to that there are fighters that have been given an opportunity like that but they just blew it down for sure there is something like this and there are fighters that needed to make ranking 1st before getting the title shot,

I like your assessment of the Lightweight division for it is now exciting this way for me I like how they are fixed by rankings and for sure Charles Oliveira still has a chance to fight Islam Makhachev but for some reason got injured and replaced by Alexander Volkanovski, but for sure Charles Oliveira may have a hardtime against Makachev after witnessing that Islam Makhachev got great results,


I really like Arman Tsarukyan's chance, it could be a 50/50 chance but in my opinion, because of his age the chance of getting a win might be possible, and because of this a younger fighter also has a chance of getting much improvement for sure Charles Oliveira is stronger than Beneil Dariush as I think he is not improving much I guess this is just what I think as Arman Tsarukyan looks pretty much improving over time than with Gamrot,

Yup, I did.
I think there's some decent money to be made by betting on some of the UFC underdogs, as we have some good value bets quite often.
I'm actually tempted to do an experimental run of "betting on underdogs" tactic (and maybe create a dedicated thread), but I don't have much time to watch sports, other than highlights from the top UFC events, which is a bit too narrow field to pull that off. But who know, maybe next year.

Yup but don't get me wrong.  Before everybody starts parading itt if I'm wrong, I just wanna say I agree with the books that Tsarukyan should be the rightful favorite.  But not that big of a favorite.  The match is a pass but if I bet, I'd go for Dariush.  Better value for your money imho.

Didn't you make a thread about long term EV?  I think that applies here.

Anyway, here's another replay.  Lol.  So many replays for this event.

UFC Free Fight:  Green vs Haqparast
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JeJC1ZkY3s4

Turner vs Green could be wide too...  And a couple others like Brundage.

And jeremypwr's Multi Master is up and running.  Enjoy!

UFC on ESPN 52:  Multi Master Challenge
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/sportsbetio-ufc-on-espn-52-multi-master-challenge-saturday-2-december-5475695

But that is what Dana White actually likes. When obvious underdog beats dominant fighter (like Edwards was receiving beating during all fight, and finished Usman with a single high kick), Dana always say that "that is what UFC is about". You never know what will happen, you never know how fight will go, as in octagon anything can happen.

If UFC was about getting maximum milk from their cow, we would see Conor, and p4p fighters fight every weekend. And UFC perfectly knows how to hype a guy. Just that Paddy the fatty that came out of nowhere. Average fighter. UFC made his metabolism as a feature and we see everywhere Fatty drowning in fast food and later fighting slim in octagon.

I do understand where you're coming from. I think there was a major shift in fighters' attitude. Back in the days the dominating mentality was: "I'll fight whoever and whenever UFC want me to fight", but now they're all more calculating, more aware of their worth and of the fact their careers are relatively short-lived so no one is keen on taking on risks with little benefits.
But from the UFC's perspective, it's also not great if some no-name, ranked outside of the top 10, beats up their star. They know it's not easy to hype-up another fighter. So they'll just trying to milk them as much as possible while they're still famous and still on the top.


I agree. I don't understand reasons for those odds. I'd say both have around equal chances of winning. Looks like the bookies put too much weight on the age difference and heavily favour younger fighters, but Dariush is 34, so it's still not quite the "decline" period.

Again I'm talking about line value and the line is def wide.  Dariush at 3.20 could be value, that's if he doesn't get KO'd.  And if I'm betting on Tsarukyan at 1.37 or whatever then I'd expect no less than total dominance on the mat, on the feet and by the cage  which I don't think will happen.  But yeah, I could be wrong.  I just don't think with Dariush's skill set and experience he should be lined at 3.20.

Here's another replay to watch...  Enjoy.  

UFC Free Fight:  Turner vs Mullarkey
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PlrYX1J8O4

Edit:  Here's more from UFC Brazil's YT channel.

UFC Free Fight:  Fig vs Moreno 3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qaaTClnaOhU

UFC Free Fight:  Tsarukyan vs Alvarez
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ts4zyIpLSy4

UFC Free Fight:  Dariush vs Gamrot
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tKCq_IS9ons

We are playing math now Dont forget that Tsarukyan lost by UD to Makhachev. A guy who subbed Oliveira, who TKOed Dariush (when he supposed to submit him) Its Tsarukyan that gained experience after Makhachev fight vs Dariush who lost peak Oliveira. Dunno, dunno. I am bad at math... Gonna be a good fight.


It was my general complaint about the fact that fighters higher in top dont want to fight those who are lower. It is understandable, but that slows everything. And then they sit without fights for half a year and more. Previously there were none of that. Previously, fighters were not afraid to fight unranked "because they would lose position in rating". Previously someone from top5 would easily go out with unranked guy, smash him in few rounds, get a fight of the night/performance/KO bonus and be happy.

You think odds on Arman are correct and justified?
I dont think he is going to be that dominant against Beneil Dariush like odds suggest, and I am thinking we could sea major upset here.
My best bet in this card is Deiveson Figueiredo, I think this is perfect him to return winning against Rob Font.

As you said, there are fighters that get title fights in only a few fights, what differentiates them from those who can't break into the top? They're good. I don't think there are any fighters ranked in the 7-15 tier with consistently good performance and on winning streaks that would stay in that tier for too long. So if we have fighters in that 2nd tier with a mix of wins and losses, they don't really deserve a title shot, and nobody from the top tier would want to fight them as there's nothing to win and there's no money to be made there.

As for the lightweight, we had Fiziev (2nd tier) fighting Gaethje (1st tier) now Tsarukyan (2nd tier) is fighting Dariush (1st tier) (which I see as a 50/50 match). Gamrot will likely get a chance to fight someone from the top 5 (perhaps Oliveira). So I don't think it's all that bad.

Good fights this weekend. Early picks for me would be; Horth, Turman, Solecki, Joaquim Silva, Bobby Green, and Arman. However, that's without looking at any statistics or tape. I'll be looking a little more in depth closer to the end of the week, but I think Bobby Green is going to surprise a few people, and definitely has a chance.

Number 1 I think that is why the UFC keeps on having the Dana White Contender Series for new fighters who want to try it in the UFC and if they win Dana White will give them a contract that they will eventually be welcome in the UFC

Number 2 this happens all the time and if a fighter feels like he is getting dominant in that division he will eventually get into a lower or higher 1 to take on the challenge for the belt for sure every fighter dreams of having 2 belts,

Number 3 this is something for the organization to change and to give a higher pay cut maybe giving a 1 time 1 million pay for the fighter if they won, just like in the PFL but for sure payments in boxing and the MMA are pretty much different,

Number 4 that's up to the fighter if they don't want that fight but if that is Khamzat Chimaev then he will surely Smesh everybody,


For sure if a fight gets great reviews and many positive comments then for the UFC that will be profitable and if a fight gets a high PPV profit and if fight is a controversial one for sure the UFC will give another chance to the other fighter and they could get a rematch and for sure the rematch will then goes up to 2 or 3rd times depending if people wants to see it again,

For sure the UFC is doing something to arrange the rankings and the fights for the Ranking are there for a reason, but the pound-for-pound rankings are just media bias, and if a fighter defeats a fighter in a higher ranking then he will be replaced for sure we can not say that the matchmakers are making matches that is unfair to fighters because the rankings exist because of that, and this is in every division for sure,


Actually, that was pretty much a close fight but Beniel Dariush had a great takedown defense and after seeing the fight of Gamrot against Rafael Fiziev it was an injury and not because of the defense of Gamrot so for sure Mateusz Gamrot doesn't do that much it means Rafael Fiziev injured himself, while Gamrot vs Tsarukyan is a close fight Mateusz Gamrot wrestling was really amazing in that fight but Arman Tsarukyan kicks were so phenomenal, but for me, it was a robbery and Arman Tsarukyan won that and the judges and even the announcers didn't see the 4th round knockdown by Tsarukyan to Mateusz Gamrot which is a bummer if you watch the fight again you would clearly see that in the 4th round so for sure this is a really controversial fight,

Sure Tsarukyan is the rightful favorite...  He's younger and more athletic.  But then does that totally negate Dariush as a fighter?  Don't forget that Dariush beat Gamrot, the guy who Tsarukyan.  I think the line is wide at 3.20 for Dariush.  That's just around 30% implied probability.  Surely Dariush could make the match closer and prolly even go his way.  Unless he got KO'd as he tends to be on the chinny side.

Here's a replay for Tsarukyan.

UFC Free Fight:  Tsarukyan vs Silva
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P3UhiYXiEQw

Anyway, who you guys have for Font vs Fig?

But there individuals, that became champions or have a title fight in just 3-4 fights. And they start their journey unranked. Look how I see current situation. Take any lightweight or lower division. There are fighting tiers. Champion-top6, top7-top15, rest of division. And these guys fight between each other all the time only. If you are a good fighter, maximum you would achieve is being among "rest of division". Maybe Gods of random be kind to you, and someone from top15 will withdrew from fight due to injury and Gods will be double kind to you and you would be selected by match makers.