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Topic: The UFC Info and Prediction Thread - page 41. (Read 96909 times)

legendary
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I am actually surprised to see, that many fighters in their interview say that it wont be an easy fight for Makhachev, either Poirier will knock Makhachev out. Is this because they are friends (or better say sparing partners or in good relationships) with Poirier and want to cheer him. Because sometimes fighters get really offended when fighters they know say they are going to lose. When Khabib fought him, people were more or less expecting Khabib to win. This times mostly bookies cheer for Islam, when fighters see Poirier to win.
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I saw a lot of complains that Tsarukyan should be fighting Makhachev, not Poirier. I can both agree and disagree with that. Honestly, today, Tsarukyan is a bigger threat to Makhachev. But I expect their fight to be nothing new from their first fight. Both gained in skills, both will show a good and close fight. A fight against Poirier has more unexpected outcome. Thus is makes more interesting for me. Poirier has all chances with his boxing. Makhachev probably is going to go kickboxing more than wrestling again. Wrestling will be his backup plan. In this fight, I think many underestimate Poirier.

Tsarukyan is very young and won't have much to present. Poirier will do better, bring in more views and sell the fight much better. Tsarukyan fighting won't have much to see, he needs more to prove himself.

Naaah, Tsarukyan isnt that young. In fact he gave a really close fight to Makhachev in the past and accepted that fight on a short notice. That wont be an easy walk for Makhachev if he faces Tsarukyan.

Yes, but this fight wouldn't be as good as the one that has been set up. I believe that for the general public it wouldn't be interesting, it would be like a top 15 fight against the top 1 is interesting but it doesn't make much sense with other better fighters.
legendary
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Khabib once told that fighters peak form is at 32-33 yo. He has said that after that age, career of a fighter (lightweight) goes down. Yes, he retired for family reasons, but he was at the edge of his peak form. The same did JSP in past. Imho it is correct to retired undefeated while in prime, then turn into Fergusson or a trampoline for other young and hungry fighters, that will use you to build name or record.
I think I vaguely remember Khabib saying that, but it's not he's some sort of oracle that can't be wrong. So as much as it's true that males' physical peak (on average) falls around late 20s/early 30s, it's possible you could compensate a slight decline in testosterone/stamine etc with fighting experience, improved technique and alike. That's why it's not uncommon to see fighters (in various martial arts) in their late 30s or even early 40s to reaching for titles.
And there's some room between Khabib and Tony Ferguson. I don't think there's much value in overly focussing on retiring undefeated. In fact, there could be an element of cowardice to it, i.e. running away from a challenge, e.g. something people accuse Jon Jones of for avoiding a fight with Tom Aspinall.
Islam losing his "0" early on was probably a good thing for him. That's one less thing for him to worry about and can afford himself to take more risks etc.

Imho, with all that weight cutting, I think it will be smart for Makhachev to face Edwards, and not cut to fight Topuria. Gamrot might be a good challenge, but would that JJ and wrestling skills help, if Makhachev evaded everything Oliveira tried on him?
Yeah, there's no way Makhachev could cut down to featherweight, I was thinking more about Topuria moving up just for that fight. Although if google tells the truth, he's much shorter than an average lightweight guys, so may not be very keen on doing that.
As for Gamrot, he's much different than Oliveira when it comes to the ground game. Oliveira is pure JJ, while Gamrot is a wrestler who added JJ elements to his game.
I'd really like to see Gamrot Vs Oliveira, which makes perfect sense, but apparently Oliveira is hunting for an easier fight with Colby, as it would mean more money, plus, he wouldn't have to cut down so much, which is something he really struggles with.
legendary
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I saw a lot of complains that Tsarukyan should be fighting Makhachev, not Poirier. I can both agree and disagree with that. Honestly, today, Tsarukyan is a bigger threat to Makhachev. But I expect their fight to be nothing new from their first fight. Both gained in skills, both will show a good and close fight. A fight against Poirier has more unexpected outcome. Thus is makes more interesting for me. Poirier has all chances with his boxing. Makhachev probably is going to go kickboxing more than wrestling again. Wrestling will be his backup plan. In this fight, I think many underestimate Poirier.

Tsarukyan is very young and won't have much to present. Poirier will do better, bring in more views and sell the fight much better. Tsarukyan fighting won't have much to see, he needs more to prove himself.

Naaah, Tsarukyan isnt that young. In fact he gave a really close fight to Makhachev in the past and accepted that fight on a short notice. That wont be an easy walk for Makhachev if he faces Tsarukyan.

Anyone remember how Khabib talked about fighters peak form at the age of 32-33? Khabib retired at 32. Makhachev is 32 now. Theoretically, Khabib can influence on Makhachevs decision to retire. We can speculate a little about since we are waiting for a fight.(...)

Don't forget that Khabib retired for family reasons, not because of old age or a decline in performance. He even stated in some interviews ~1 year after his last fight that he could return and compete at the highest level if he wanted to but chose not to.
I don't understand the recent trend of this thread to speculate about retirement of any fighter whose age starts with "3".

Khabib once told that fighters peak form is at 32-33 yo. He has said that after that age, career of a fighter (lightweight) goes down. Yes, he retired for family reasons, but he was at the edge of his peak form. The same did JSP in past. Imho it is correct to retired undefeated while in prime, then turn into Fergusson or a trampoline for other young and hungry fighters, that will use you to build name or record.

After Poirier and Tsarukyan he could face Holloway and Gamrot, provided they don't lose any fight before that happens. I'm quite biased, as Gamrot is my compatriot, but in terms of the ground game, he could really be a challenge to Islam. Mateusz has been successfully training and competing in wrestling since his childhood years, he is also a jiu-jitsu black belt and has proven his skills by winning multiple ADCC medals (incl. 2 gold ones) in submission wrestling.
Other than the 4 mentioned, he could search for opponents in other weight classes. If Topuria doesn't disappoint in his next fights, we could see a super fight against himself and Islam (in the lightweight obviously) and Islam already hinted in the past that he wanted to face Leon for the welterweight belt.
And of course, it's highly probable that within 1 or 2 years new names will emerge as they always do. Maybe Saint-Denis will learn his lesson and resume his climb to the top (he's still quite young).

Imho, with all that weight cutting, I think it will be smart for Makhachev to face Edwards, and not cut to fight Topuria. Gamrot might be a good challenge, but would that JJ and wrestling skills help, if Makhachev evaded everything Oliveira tried on him?
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I saw a lot of complains that Tsarukyan should be fighting Makhachev, not Poirier. I can both agree and disagree with that. Honestly, today, Tsarukyan is a bigger threat to Makhachev. But I expect their fight to be nothing new from their first fight. Both gained in skills, both will show a good and close fight. A fight against Poirier has more unexpected outcome. Thus is makes more interesting for me. Poirier has all chances with his boxing. Makhachev probably is going to go kickboxing more than wrestling again. Wrestling will be his backup plan. In this fight, I think many underestimate Poirier.

Tsarukyan is very young and won't have much to present. Poirier will do better, bring in more views and sell the fight much better. Tsarukyan fighting won't have much to see, he needs more to prove himself.
legendary
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Anyone remember how Khabib talked about fighters peak form at the age of 32-33? Khabib retired at 32. Makhachev is 32 now. Theoretically, Khabib can influence on Makhachevs decision to retire. We can speculate a little about since we are waiting for a fight.(...)

Don't forget that Khabib retired for family reasons, not because of old age or a decline in performance. He even stated in some interviews ~1 year after his last fight that he could return and compete at the highest level if he wanted to but chose not to.
I don't understand the recent trend of this thread to speculate about retirement of any fighter whose age starts with "3".

(...) And who is left among top lightweight unbeaten? Gamrot? Chandler? Dont believe they would be a threat for him, but he can win one of them and retire. I dont think that Islam is going to fight for more than a year. Two years, that would be 6 according to default contract rules. There are no 6 contenders among lightweight division who would be a real danger for him.

After Poirier and Tsarukyan he could face Holloway and Gamrot, provided they don't lose any fight before that happens. I'm quite biased, as Gamrot is my compatriot, but in terms of the ground game, he could really be a challenge to Islam. Mateusz has been successfully training and competing in wrestling since his childhood years, he is also a jiu-jitsu black belt and has proven his skills by winning multiple ADCC medals (incl. 2 gold ones) in submission wrestling.
Other than the 4 mentioned, he could search for opponents in other weight classes. If Topuria doesn't disappoint in his next fights, we could see a super fight against himself and Islam (in the lightweight obviously) and Islam already hinted in the past that he wanted to face Leon for the welterweight belt.
And of course, it's highly probable that within 1 or 2 years new names will emerge as they always do. Maybe Saint-Denis will learn his lesson and resume his climb to the top (he's still quite young).

(...) EV wise it's prolly worth a bet starting at 7.00.  Dunno tho...
Agree. I'm not writing Poirier off in that fight and see some scenarios when he could win, but x5.0 is not quite good enough. At least not for me.
legendary
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Am I the only on who noticed odds on Makhachev vs Poirier fight and find them unfair towards Poirier? Duelbits gives 1.17 Makhachev and 5.00 Poirier. How come top #4 have so high odds, like he is a debutant? I think bookies are little unfair this time. Poirier won previous fight via KO, fought rather good against Oliveira and Khabib (lost in last rounds only). Made Chandler tap. And his is 5.00. While he still has chances to land a nice punch on Makhachev.

P.S. Khabib is in Makhachevs camp this time, probably will be in his corner.

In addition:

1) Poirier was underdog in a fight against Saint Denis
2) Poirier managed to counter every Khabib attack and even closed guillotine.
3) Poirier stamina is better than Makhachev (example - Makhachev vs battle dwarf 1)
4) Makhachev never faced such a striker before. Makhachevs striking isnt perfect as many think (example - again Makhachev vs battle dwarf first fight. Look how many times Gimli connected).
5) Makhachev isnt Khabib who dodge every striking attack by jumping back. Makhachev can go in exchange with Poirier. But, where Makhachev connect one punch, Poirier unload series.

Anyway, I would call it as a total mismatch as it looks on the paper. If Poirier managed to counter takedowns with guillotine or evade them, in late round he could surprise us this weekend. As this is probably going to be his last chance to win belt, he will be risking maximum (and if we look on his record, then 50% of his wins are by KO, he will risk definitely). He wont let judges decide who won. It is either Makhachev choke him in second round, or Poirier will knock him out in second half of the fight.

Yeah the bookies know that a lot of folks would be betting on Makhachev as he's undefeated, he's the best 155'er after Khabib and that these Dagestani bros are solid.  So they had to open the market in such a way that there's no value on Makhachev and to bet on him will be -EV.  But in doing so, they're giving some value to Poirier.  But could Poirier really stand a chance vs Makhachev?  EV wise it's prolly worth a bet starting at 7.00.  Dunno tho...

Here's the countdown vid and Embedded.

UFC 302:  Countdown
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1DtUBecwVjk

UFC 302:  Embedded Episode 1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WAz6LLtXO1w
legendary
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Anyone remember how Khabib talked about fighters peak form at the age of 32-33? Khabib retired at 32. Makhachev is 32 now. Theoretically, Khabib can influence on Makhachevs decision to retire. We can speculate a little about since we are waiting for a fight. Fight Poirier, then Tsarukyan. And who is left among top lightweight unbeaten? Gamrot? Chandler? Dont believe they would be a threat for him, but he can win one of them and retire. I dont think that Islam is going to fight for more than a year. Two years, that would be 6 according to default contract rules. There are no 6 contenders among lightweight division who would be a real danger for him.
legendary
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I saw a lot of complains that Tsarukyan should be fighting Makhachev, not Poirier. I can both agree and disagree with that. Honestly, today, Tsarukyan is a bigger thread to Makhachev. But I expect their fight to be nothing new from their first fight. Both gained in skills, both will show a good and close fight. A fight against Poirier has more unexpected outcome. Thus is makes more interesting for me. Poirier has all chances with his boxing. Makhachev probably is going to go kickboxing more than wrestling again. Wrestling will be his backup plan. In this fight, I think many underestimate Poirier.

It's not either/or situation. The only reason Makhachev is fighting Poirier and not Tsarukyan is that Islam pushed to fight at least 3 times a year and wanted to fight in June at the latest (as he couldn't sooner due to the ramadan). June was obviously a way too soon for the winner of Oliveira/Tsarukyan (or for Gaethje/Holloway), so the idea is for Islam to fight Dustin now and (shall he win) Tsarukyan later. He confirmed that in one of his interviews around the time of the UFC 301.

Like him or not, I respect Islam for wanting to fight so often. He realises he won't be in his prime forever so doesn't want to be sitting idle for a year or so, like some other champs. This is the proper way of building a legacy, and making big money in the process.
legendary
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I saw a lot of complains that Tsarukyan should be fighting Makhachev, not Poirier. I can both agree and disagree with that. Honestly, today, Tsarukyan is a bigger threat to Makhachev. But I expect their fight to be nothing new from their first fight. Both gained in skills, both will show a good and close fight. A fight against Poirier has more unexpected outcome. Thus is makes more interesting for me. Poirier has all chances with his boxing. Makhachev probably is going to go kickboxing more than wrestling again. Wrestling will be his backup plan. In this fight, I think many underestimate Poirier.
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Am I the only on who noticed odds on Makhachev vs Poirier fight and find them unfair towards Poirier? Duelbits gives 1.17 Makhachev and 5.00 Poirier. How come top #4 have so high odds, like he is a debutant? I think bookies are little unfair this time. Poirier won previous fight via KO, fought rather good against Oliveira and Khabib (lost in last rounds only). Made Chandler tap. And his is 5.00. While he still has chances to land a nice punch on Makhachev.

P.S. Khabib is in Makhachevs camp this time, probably will be in his corner.

In addition:

1) Poirier was underdog in a fight against Saint Denis
2) Poirier managed to counter every Khabib attack and even closed guillotine.
3) Poirier stamina is better than Makhachev (example - Makhachev vs battle dwarf 1)
4) Makhachev never faced such a striker before. Makhachevs striking isnt perfect as many think (example - again Makhachev vs battle dwarf first fight. Look how many times Gimli connected).
5) Makhachev isnt Khabib who dodge every striking attack by jumping back. Makhachev can go in exchange with Poirier. But, where Makhachev connect one punch, Poirier unload series.

Anyway, I would call it as a total mismatch as it looks on the paper. If Poirier managed to counter takedowns with guillotine or evade them, in late round he could surprise us this weekend. As this is probably going to be his last chance to win belt, he will be risking maximum (and if we look on his record, then 50% of his wins are by KO, he will risk definitely). He wont let judges decide who won. It is either Makhachev choke him in second round, or Poirier will knock him out in second half of the fight.

Watching the analysis, the houses trusts Makhachev can neutralize Poirier to the floor, that's what they see. Poirier pulling this upset will be a good profit.

Isn't it a good strategy to bet $20 for Makhachev 1.93 by submission and then on the other hand bet just $5 in case Poirier wins?  Just curious how you can make this situation beneficial.



The problem is that Makhachev can't neutralize it, and Poirier will come with everything. So Makhachev will need to deal with this. I remember that in fight 1 against Volka, he suffered a lot. So it is a path to be explored.
legendary
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Am I the only on who noticed odds on Makhachev vs Poirier fight and find them unfair towards Poirier? Duelbits gives 1.17 Makhachev and 5.00 Poirier. How come top #4 have so high odds, like he is a debutant? I think bookies are little unfair this time. Poirier won previous fight via KO, fought rather good against Oliveira and Khabib (lost in last rounds only). Made Chandler tap. And his is 5.00. While he still has chances to land a nice punch on Makhachev.

P.S. Khabib is in Makhachevs camp this time, probably will be in his corner.

In addition:

1) Poirier was underdog in a fight against Saint Denis
2) Poirier managed to counter every Khabib attack and even closed guillotine.
3) Poirier stamina is better than Makhachev (example - Makhachev vs battle dwarf 1)
4) Makhachev never faced such a striker before. Makhachevs striking isnt perfect as many think (example - again Makhachev vs battle dwarf first fight. Look how many times Gimli connected).
5) Makhachev isnt Khabib who dodge every striking attack by jumping back. Makhachev can go in exchange with Poirier. But, where Makhachev connect one punch, Poirier unload series.

Anyway, I would call it as a total mismatch as it looks on the paper. If Poirier managed to counter takedowns with guillotine or evade them, in late round he could surprise us this weekend. As this is probably going to be his last chance to win belt, he will be risking maximum (and if we look on his record, then 50% of his wins are by KO, he will risk definitely). He wont let judges decide who won. It is either Makhachev choke him in second round, or Poirier will knock him out in second half of the fight.

Watching the analysis, the houses trusts Makhachev can neutralize Poirier to the floor, that's what they see. Poirier pulling this upset will be a good profit.

Isn't it a good strategy to bet $20 for Makhachev 1.93 by submission and then on the other hand bet just $5 in case Poirier wins?  Just curious how you can make this situation beneficial.

legendary
Activity: 2478
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Am I the only on who noticed odds on Makhachev vs Poirier fight and find them unfair towards Poirier? Duelbits gives 1.17 Makhachev and 5.00 Poirier. How come top #4 have so high odds, like he is a debutant? I think bookies are little unfair this time. Poirier won previous fight via KO, fought rather good against Oliveira and Khabib (lost in last rounds only). Made Chandler tap. And his is 5.00. While he still has chances to land a nice punch on Makhachev.

P.S. Khabib is in Makhachevs camp this time, probably will be in his corner.

In addition:

1) Poirier was underdog in a fight against Saint Denis
2) Poirier managed to counter every Khabib attack and even closed guillotine.
3) Poirier stamina is better than Makhachev (example - Makhachev vs battle dwarf 1)
4) Makhachev never faced such a striker before. Makhachevs striking isnt perfect as many think (example - again Makhachev vs battle dwarf first fight. Look how many times Gimli connected).
5) Makhachev isnt Khabib who dodge every striking attack by jumping back. Makhachev can go in exchange with Poirier. But, where Makhachev connect one punch, Poirier unload series.

Anyway, I would call it as a total mismatch as it looks on the paper. If Poirier managed to counter takedowns with guillotine or evade them, in late round he could surprise us this weekend. As this is probably going to be his last chance to win belt, he will be risking maximum (and if we look on his record, then 50% of his wins are by KO, he will risk definitely). He wont let judges decide who won. It is either Makhachev choke him in second round, or Poirier will knock him out in second half of the fight.
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Can someone explain hype around Diego Lopes? It is clear that the kid is talented. But he has got only 4 fights in UFC, but I often see him giving interviews or flashing somewhere. By the look on his record, he can both do striking and submitting people. But that is the level of non UFC. He fought Evloev (#5 among featherweight) on a 5-day notice, and in every round Evloev was saved by bell from being submitted. Impressive, but that is pretty much it. However, he is on #14 now.

You know, everyone in the world right now are a little crazy about young talents, there is no doubt that this guy is talented.
But I somewhat agreed that properly they are hyping the kid a little too much.

I do not like this. Because a lot of times I have seen so many fighters and athletes actually not be able to continue performing well or stay disciplined just because they have got a little too much pain in a very short period of time. You do not appreciate or understand the value of the thing that comes easily or quickly, that is human nature. it’s why a lot of fighters actually do not know what to do with the unfathomable fame that they have.

Obviously, I hope it turns out well for him. And may he be able to have a good career in the UFC. but I understand why UFC is doing this. After all, they are trying to find a mouth that can replace Connor McGregor. But I also sometimes doubt that this is the approach they are taking with him already
legendary
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^  The guy isn't really tested apart from his debut in the UFC.  But his last win vs Yusuff was decent since Yusuff is regarded as one of the better prospects.  Not sure what happened to him after his injury tho.  He's still strong but I think coming back after a one year lay off vs Barboza for a 5 rounder is bad match making.  The UFC should've give him an opponent lower in the pecking order to get him acclimated in the cage.  And giving him Lopes after a tough loss Barboza is just dumb imho.

^  Yeah cos most of them like fighting cans instead of the best guys.  In the UFC, Bellator, PFL, ONE, etc, etc that can't happen as they have the match makers doing it for them. Not really sure how the match making works in boxing tho.  But when I used to watch it, all I watch is the main event as most of the under cards suck.  And what I don't like about boxing is they put too much of a premium in unblemished records.  I mean who cares if the fighter is undefeated...  In MMA, that only means that the fighter hasn't really been tested yet.


Floyd cares so much about undefeated. Same with Jones. Legacy I suppose and when a fighter retires undefeated, they have the opportunity to promote products while they can brag about the undefeated record. Tyson Fury used to brag about it.  Being undefeated means marketable.

MMA is very different though. You can only be the best when you have all the skills from boxing, jujitsu, wrestling, and all sorts which is why if the match team is going to test a striker against someone who has wrestling skills chances are that the striker will be at the disadvantage unless he learns fast with his team. boxing is just boxing. but some of them are just decorating themselves with KOs even the fights in their amateur days like 8 rounder fights.

Maybe but I could say that staying undefeated in the UFC is waaay harder than staying undefeated in boxing.  There's just a lot more going on in MMA as fighters have to study and practice multiple disciplines.  Boxing on the other handis just boxing.  Lol.   And I know the next question would be then why do MMA fighters lose when they fight boxers in boxing?  Ok if they're so good at fighting then why don't the top boxers fight in MMA?  A top 15 UFC fighter would win vs a top boxer 7 times out of 10 in MMA imho.  And that's being generous.  

Name a great boxer right now and I'll name an MMA fighter outside the top 5 who I think could win.

In the UFC, when you generate a lot of clicks and views, you end up having a moral compass with the boss and being able to choose fights. I don't know how it works in boxing, but in the UFC they seem to choose which fights they want to fight and that creates, for me, cartels that aren't reality. Let's say that 20% of all the undefeated cartels are false.

So you saying that the UFC isn't making good fights and that something should change?

^
Let's say Inoue fights anyone on the list using the UFC gloves, those guys will stumble to stand up with just a jab from Inoue. As long as he can defend himself from a takedown, it will be hellish for these guys. They could potentially win by submission but not if they stand head-to-head. To believe themselves to win in standing, they have the slightest chance.

Its like Kamaru Usman picking Jan Blachowicz https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1793649032595706220
And then Jan replied to him If you still feel the same about it @USMAN84kg, let’s go. I will be ready.

I think Kamaru is really up to it since he seems to have no fight at all, he is going LHW. But he has the slight chance too.

Uh lol...  I'm pretty sure this Inoue guy will make the MMA guys who has almost no wrestling in their game look like Daniel Cormier.  Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy
legendary
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Can someone explain hype around Diego Lopes? It is clear that the kid is talented. But he has got only 4 fights in UFC, but I often see him giving interviews or flashing somewhere. By the look on his record, he can both do striking and submitting people. But that is the level of non UFC. He fought Evloev (#5 among featherweight) on a 5-day notice, and in every round Evloev was saved by bell from being submitted. Impressive, but that is pretty much it. However, he is on #14 now.
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^  Yeah cos most of them like fighting cans instead of the best guys.  In the UFC, Bellator, PFL, ONE, etc, etc that can't happen as they have the match makers doing it for them. Not really sure how the match making works in boxing tho.  But when I used to watch it, all I watch is the main event as most of the under cards suck.  And what I don't like about boxing is they put too much of a premium in unblemished records.  I mean who cares if the fighter is undefeated...  In MMA, that only means that the fighter hasn't really been tested yet.


Floyd cares so much about undefeated. Same with Jones. Legacy I suppose and when a fighter retires undefeated, they have the opportunity to promote products while they can brag about the undefeated record. Tyson Fury used to brag about it.  Being undefeated means marketable.

MMA is very different though. You can only be the best when you have all the skills from boxing, jujitsu, wrestling, and all sorts which is why if the match team is going to test a striker against someone who has wrestling skills chances are that the striker will be at the disadvantage unless he learns fast with his team. boxing is just boxing. but some of them are just decorating themselves with KOs even the fights in their amateur days like 8 rounder fights.

Maybe but I could say that staying undefeated in the UFC is waaay harder than staying undefeated in boxing.  There's just a lot more going on in MMA as fighters have to study and practice multiple disciplines.  Boxing on the other handis just boxing.  Lol.   And I know the next question would be then why do MMA fighters lose when they fight boxers in boxing?  Ok if they're so good at fighting then why don't the top boxers fight in MMA?  A top 15 UFC fighter would win vs a top boxer 7 times out of 10 in MMA imho.  And that's being generous.  

Name a great boxer right now and I'll name an MMA fighter outside the top 5 who I think could win.

In the UFC, when you generate a lot of clicks and views, you end up having a moral compass with the boss and being able to choose fights. I don't know how it works in boxing, but in the UFC they seem to choose which fights they want to fight and that creates, for me, cartels that aren't reality. Let's say that 20% of all the undefeated cartels are false.
legendary
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Hehehehehe I did not expect for you to see this heehehhee.



However, I cannot be very certain how much odds I can propose to you because there are many types of submission technics in mixed martial arts. The rear naked choke is only one of them. If I propose something, you might tell me that I am being unfair. Also, Islam can also win with a knockout punch or a technical knockout.

It appears that I cannot be brave for you hehehehe.
Yes he can win by KO or TKO for sure, or even by a kimura or an armbar submission and if you had bet on a victory by rear naked choke submission you would lose your bet despite his nice victory, you might feel wronged, but that's how it is. Betting on how he will win is just not the same thing as betting if he will win or not. So if you don't feel comfortable with betting on his precise winning method, we could just bet on a victory by choke. It means Islam would have to win the fight and to get his victory by submitting his opponent with a choke. But any kind of choking technique would be ok and not only the rear naked one.  
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chokehold#Types
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Let's say Inoue fights anyone on the list using the UFC gloves, those guys will stumble to stand up with just a jab from Inoue. As long as he can defend himself from a takedown, it will be hellish for these guys. They could potentially win by submission but not if they stand head-to-head. To believe themselves to win in standing, they have the slightest chance.

Its like Kamaru Usman picking Jan Blachowicz https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1793649032595706220
And then Jan replied to him If you still feel the same about it @USMAN84kg, let’s go. I will be ready.

I think Kamaru is really up to it since he seems to have no fight at all, he is going LHW. But he has the slight chance too.
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^  So I looked him up and he fights at boxing's 122 lbs weight class.  That's flyweight in the UFC which is up to 125 lbs..  And since we're just trying to make a point that the top fighters in boxing would have a hard time winning vs some if the top guys in the UFC within the same weigh class, then let's list the guys from the top 6 to 15 in UFC's flyweight...  

Muhammad Mokaev   
Manel Kape   
Matheus Nicolau   
Steve Erceg   
Tim Elliott   
Matt Schnell   
Tagir Ulanbekov   
Tatsuro Taira   
Sumudaerji   
David Dvorak   

Out the guys in the list, I think Inoue could prolly win vs three of them...  Matt Schnell, Sumudaerji and Dvorack.  But then again with the wrestling, the hard leg kicks and the BJJ...  Dunno.  It's prolly zero.
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