Topic: The UFC Info and Prediction Thread - page 426. (Read 97044 times)

I would completely agree with you...if this was 2007 Outside of certain fighters, the game has changed to where they are much more rounded and less weary of being taken to the deep end be it striking, BJJ or wrestling. Maybe Cannonier is not that guy, that we shall see, but for the most part, I think that's the landscape of current MMA.

I couldn't agree more. Not to mention that some wrestlers have heavy hands too and Kelvin is one of them.

I'm also seeing a Kelvin win here but I'd rather wait for live betting (if there's available). He'll probably win by KO/TKO if he doesn't take too much damage in the first two rounds.

Cannonier is predominately a striker though, and as I've said previously when you match up a striker against a wrestler, it's usually the wrestler that does better. What you tend to see is the striker becomes so wary of the takedown, they stop throwing as much volume as they usually do, then sometimes you even seen the wrestlers out striker the strikers. He may have not done well in the past with decisions, but I do not see him knocking out Cannonier or even getting a finish against him, but for some reason my gut feeling is he's going to win this match up.

Although, I'm not trying to convince anyone to go for Kelvin. I mean the last few championship fights I've got wrong consecutively.

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier VS Gastelum picks

Jared Cannonier VS Kelvin Gastelum

There are doubts in my mind at first that Kelvin Gastelum might win this, but after seeing the odds at stake.com 1.71 for Jared Cannonier and 2.31 for Kelvin Gastelum, not that high but you can surely see the difference, so I wonder why because I always wonder why many people are taking Cannonier side before making my pick and looking at Jared Cannonier history he is once a Heavyweight, then a Light Heavyweight until he drops to the Middleweight division, while Gastelum comes from Welterweight then comes up to Middleweight, I know many will say that Division is not that a big of a deal but seeing Gastelum at 29 he looks really old than 29 but my take in here he looks depreciating over time, I am not into the hype I am just visualizing what may happen inside the octagon and that is what my take in this fight, and in my opinion it is one weird fight to see, and I am going with Jared Cannonier for the win.

Clay Guida VS Mark Madsen

This is not really what I expect with a Co-main Event but for the undefeated Mark Madsen facing the Experience Clay Guida, I think this will be a wrestling match and both men will sure out-wrestle the other but I don't really think that Guida is the same person back then, he sure has a lot of loss record than the win but if he can still Submit an opponent that is still good, but this will be a wrestling match but Madsen doesn't really have great cardio so this makes the experience Guida to take that advantage on Madsen, Even though Madsen is a former Olympian, Guida had a lot of notable fight that involves wrestling and won with submissions, won against Anthony Pettis, B.J. Penn, Nate Diaz, and Michael Johnson a lot of big names on the UFC, but stakes.com odds was 2.44 for Guida and 1.64 for Madsen, but even though there is a lot of note that pertaining Guida can win this, I am still going for Mark Madsen, and this is a 50/50 decision for me.

He doesn't have all that good of history with decisions in title fights, lost both of them (we are talking about 5 round fights, not 3), so that could be telling. I can't, for the life of me remember if it's because of his gas tank or what. However, Cannonier has never fought a fiver rounder to length so let's see who buckles first.

I think there's enough value on Kelvin at a decision win, that's what I see the most likely if he is to win. Going for a William Knight decision too, I think most are probably expecting a knock out, but just to squeeze those odds out I've gone for the decision again at 4.33. It'll probably be a knockout, but at 2.38 I'm not sure its worth putting on. I don't see Fabio Cherant winning in any shape or form.

Ok...  So Cannonier had 4 matches at 185 which only two opponents had landed a total of 4 TD’s out of 16 TD’s attempted.  That makes his TD defense at 75% at 185 so far.  And if you watch tape of his past fights, he is def strong enough to get himself up when taken down.  

http://www.ufcstats.com/fighter-details/13a0275fa13c4d26

So yeah...  Like I said, not enough value with Gastelum.

Edit:  Strong leans on the under 2.5 rounds in the Palatnikov vs Brahimaj match, Roosevelt Roberts to win, Kelleher to win, and Pichel to win.

Edit:  Oh and here’s Sportsbet’s Multi Master.

Sportsbet.io UFC Vegas 34 Multi Master Challenge
https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/sportsbetio-ufc-vegas-34-multi-master-challenge-5355282

I should say after checking Jared Cannonier's stats and his fight history in wiki yes he fights to start as a heavyweight but was beat badly by Shawn Jordan and Cannonier back then was really fat, then Won against Cyril Asker, Then go down 1 division to fight Ion Cutelaba this time on the Light Heavyweight, After his losses to Jan Blachowicz and Dominick Reyes he Debuts against David Branch in the Middleweight Division and got the performance of the night against Jack Hermansson with TKO Punches, that Kelvin Gastelum loss with a submission heel hook against Hermansson, This is what I am not seeing and thank you for pointing it out, Kelvin Gastelum was from Welterweight to the Middleweight Division but Jared Cannonier, was from a higher division, I might change my opinion with my pick from Gastelum to Cannonier.

Mhm...maybe, but MMA math usually doesn't work out that way. Well, with some it does, but those are rare. Usually, things fall apart in the most unpredictable ways. What I have observed is that the tactics have to change depending on the division so it's not just a matter of being able to go for TD defense quicker, but also other factors need to be included.

I reckon @tokeweed did not consider that the data on Jared Cannonier is from 3 weight divisions. We should remove all of the data from the heavweight division and the light heavyweight division. We might discover that Jared will have higher takedown defense in the middleweight division.

Kelvin used to be better, recently he's been somewhat declining. Though, I'm all for a underdog being written off towards the end of their career, and then surprising a few people. To be honest, I usually take the unlikely bets over ones which actually make sense . If you watch the Adesanya fight, you'll see the potential there. Alright, not a world beater, but definitely someone who knows how to fight, particularly wrestling.

I am just not convinced in Gastelum at all, he looks a lot like a wild bull with a lot of power but without much brain and strategy in fighting, but I could be wrong.
I need to listen and watch their per-fight interviews before I make my final decision, and here is media day LIVE stream just now:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=743GNPZe-oM

I went for Kelvin @ 4.33 to win by decision, which I think is probably the most likely route of victory if he is to win the fight. I don't see him knocking out Cannonier, and the same for a submission. A ideal bet might have been betting for the fight to go the distance, but I didn't check the odds on that. I've also got Royval on my accumulator, I'm feeling a night of the underdogs is on the cards.

Yes! Gastelum's Durability is out of this world, and you are right there are no TKO/KO defeated on Gastelum records, if you would look at Gastelum's record fights all of his losses was either Desicion and Submission and the iron chin is really equip to Gastelum for that tremendous durability that he has, I might look even further but a little more encouragement and I would really go with Kelvin Gastelum to hug and drive Cannonier to the ground with his wrestling, and Gastelum can really trade punches without a care for the guard and despite his reach and size he is a heavy hitter and have more power with his left punch.

If you guys are looking for a good underdog to put some action on avoid Gastelum.  No value.  I mean yeah he has the skills and could even prolly finish Cannonier.  But check his record as of late.  He’s not an a good mind set to take on top fivers.  His last win was a tune up fight vs Heinisch.  I think Royval at 2.45 is a better underdog bet.  But get in now before the line becomes closer.

Best time to bet on a fighter in my opinion. The odds will reflect that the fighter has been having a rough time recently, and the fighter themselves will want to redeem themselves. Especially, if they are concerned about being cut from the UFC. Gastelum at around 4.00 for a decision win is good value considering his obvious strengths in wrestling, and I find whenever there's a wrestler against a striker, the striker performs subpar due to the threat of a take down. I'm definitely putting Gastelum on my accumulator this weekend.

I would disagree on that one. He will be much faster if he is much lighter, however, for comparison Miočić fights around 109kg so Jones would have to be around 100 to make a difference in speed, but with that, he is opening himself up to not being able to withstand shots if taken or get people off him if taken down. And remember Jones vs OSP? Gregg Jackson commented how slow he was because he packed on so much muscle in his off time by powerlifting. You can't just pack on weight and expect to retain the same exact style of fighting.

One thing everyone will accept is that Jon Jones will be much faster than anyone in the Heavyweight division, if you can see the shot coming then he will evade. He faced many champions during his reign and no one was able to catch him and knock him down and you think Jon Jones will not evade these heavy punches, he still have his long reach advantage than anyone else . I am sure he will tactically break down the fighter as majority will tire down once the fight goes the third round and he will pick apart.

Yes but Cannonier has bigger 6 inch reach advantage than Gastelum and his striking accuracy is also better.
Odds are showing that Cannonier is a big favorite in this fight  and Gastelum won only one fight from last five, so not much is going in his favor for this fight.

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If you think that MMA fighters make a lot of money than you will be shocked by Cyril Gane statement who said that in his last fight with Lewis he earned $350,000, but when he paid taxes, his team and coaches he was left with only $188,000.
That is nothing compared with money that boxers earn and only top MMA fighters earned millions
https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2021/08/ufc-news-ciryl-gane-reveals-interim-heavyweight-title-purse-against-derrick-lewis

^  And Gastelum has a cast iron chin.  He has never been KO’d in the UFC..  I haven’t looked closely into it but maybe even in his whole career.  But still no value in the over 4.5 at pickem odds imo.

No bets yet but other spots I’m looking at are Guida to win, under 2.5 rounds in the Pantoja vs Royval match, over 1.5 rounds in Knight vs Cherant, Pichel to win, Saldana to win, Roberts to win and Brahimaj to win.  This cars is a sleeper imo.  Lot’s of spots.

Vids...

UFC Vegas 34 Free Fight:  Cannonier vs Hermansson
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mvpn33ESCYQ

UFC Vegas 34 Free Fight:  Gastelum vs Jacare
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yETLTn3seFA