Messi wasn't on the list this year because he didn't deserve it, he wasn't himself last season but this season he's on another form and would definitely make the list and might probably win it again if his side in the national team wins the FIFA world cup and PSG wins the champions league, his individual performance will get him the win if both competition aren't won. Both achievement aren't impossible as his side in both competition are capable of winning both tournament.
The chances are very small, talking about the World Cup there are still many other countries that are also favorites and are also related to the Champions League, PSG is still quite difficult to reach the semifinals this season, Messi does not benefit from being at PSG , because the performances displayed are very inconsistent like in Barcelona, not yet again talking about teammates who don't get along and are too selfish, like the rumors circulating against the MNM trio.
Based on these considerations, I think Messi's chances of getting the Ballon d'Or are very small.
The fact that Real Madrid is consider an underdog always surprise me. In those matches they play, all were less experience them Real Madrid both on and off the field. This season as well, Real Madrid might silence those not considering them favourite. For a competition you have won 14th times I think you should be favorite even when you're off form. Real Madrid don't play champions league to compete, they play to win.
Them and other top side are at advantage of lifting this year trophy. Where others have brilliant individual prayers, Real Madrid has both the individual players and experience that the other team will be lacking.
There are several reasons why Real Madrid has always been a team capable of entering the Semi-Finals, Finals and Champions.
First: Statistically they do have great players in the squad, but this is not the only reason, because in other clubs there are also many great players, but not as capable as Real Madrid.
Second: Real Madrid's mentality is not the same as other clubs, so even under pressure they can adjust and be able to come out victorious, although the role of the coach cannot be ignored in such conditions, at least this is what we have seen from the previous few seasons.
Third: They play more focused on teamwork, resulting in a squad that has a vision of play and responsibility, all the existing players have an important role and are able to have an impact on their attack, which is why Ronaldo was able to score 450 goals, during his time with Real Madrid.
Real Madrid has a winning mentality, which is something that other teams rarely have.