Moved across time zones and missed a whole round of games last night, only one game left on my calendar I thoight until I checked next date and saw haha.
No feelings either way for me. Maybe a surprise win from St Joseph but only because I have a particular feeling Slavia Prague could be a let down at home.
Dumb bets to take 101...
Topic: ⚽UEFA Conference League Discussion Thread -- 2022/23 | Round of 16 - page 30. (Read 4606 times)
July 28, 2022, 05:10:52 AM
July 27, 2022, 10:26:54 AM
CFR Cluj + Aris to win @1.60, who says no?
I just checked the lineups, and despite the comfortable win in the first leg, Cluj is fielding their best 11 and not resting anyone. Now that there is no pressure, i believe they will easily score a few.
Aris is playing both games against Gomel at home in Greece. I'm not sure if the Belarusian team traveled back or spent the entire week on the beaches of Thessaloniki, either way, Aris should win even if they start most of their bench players.
Does anyone have any other plays/tips for today, AIK and Vorskla match smells like goals?
I just checked the lineups, and despite the comfortable win in the first leg, Cluj is fielding their best 11 and not resting anyone. Now that there is no pressure, i believe they will easily score a few.
Aris is playing both games against Gomel at home in Greece. I'm not sure if the Belarusian team traveled back or spent the entire week on the beaches of Thessaloniki, either way, Aris should win even if they start most of their bench players.
Does anyone have any other plays/tips for today, AIK and Vorskla match smells like goals?
I would better play goals then that i play favorites in this match. Both teams already have giant advantage and for them to get knocked out some serious stuff needs to happen. But they can win easily like they did in the first match. I played both teams goals instead of favorites but both teams should win if they go 100% in the match.
July 27, 2022, 10:23:11 AM
CFR Cluj + Aris to win @1.60, who says no?
I just checked the lineups, and despite the comfortable win in the first leg, Cluj is fielding their best 11 and not resting anyone. Now that there is no pressure, i believe they will easily score a few.
Aris is playing both games against Gomel at home in Greece. I'm not sure if the Belarusian team traveled back or spent the entire week on the beaches of Thessaloniki, either way, Aris should win even if they start most of their bench players.
Does anyone have any other plays/tips for today, AIK and Vorskla match smells like goals?
I just checked the lineups, and despite the comfortable win in the first leg, Cluj is fielding their best 11 and not resting anyone. Now that there is no pressure, i believe they will easily score a few.
Aris is playing both games against Gomel at home in Greece. I'm not sure if the Belarusian team traveled back or spent the entire week on the beaches of Thessaloniki, either way, Aris should win even if they start most of their bench players.
Does anyone have any other plays/tips for today, AIK and Vorskla match smells like goals?
July 22, 2022, 11:39:38 AM
Also, Konyaspor's third goal is truly a goal worthy of praise. Muric made an excellent shot with his left foot. The goalkeeper was helpless against this shot. Here is a link for those who want to see it:
https://youtu.be/T_ImS5ByWqg?t=382
I rarely watch the qualifiers because I don't know many players and teams. For the UEFA Conference League, I'll probably wait for the qualifying rounds to finish because there might be some good teams which will catch my attention later. For the UEFA Conference League, there are 3 qualifying rounds based on the rules and each round has 2 leg. So it looks like there are a lot of match that I have to miss for this competition. https://youtu.be/T_ImS5ByWqg?t=382
July 22, 2022, 11:28:53 AM
Bate Borisov - Konyaspor (21.07.2022)
Konyaspor continued most of the match with 10 players, but they managed to win the match with a clear score of 3-0. They showed everyone that they had passed the tour with this away win. Now they're going to play a formality match at home and wait for their next opponent...
Also, Konyaspor's third goal is truly a goal worthy of praise. Muric made an excellent shot with his left foot. The goalkeeper was helpless against this shot. Here is a link for those who want to see it:
https://youtu.be/T_ImS5ByWqg?t=382
Konyaspor continued most of the match with 10 players, but they managed to win the match with a clear score of 3-0. They showed everyone that they had passed the tour with this away win. Now they're going to play a formality match at home and wait for their next opponent...
Also, Konyaspor's third goal is truly a goal worthy of praise. Muric made an excellent shot with his left foot. The goalkeeper was helpless against this shot. Here is a link for those who want to see it:
https://youtu.be/T_ImS5ByWqg?t=382
July 21, 2022, 05:33:53 PM
Some really bad results in this confrence league. Expected like last week to win a huge bet but now was miles away.
Hopefully in the rematch round we see some wins. A lot of favorites didnt win such as Basaksehir,Rapid and others
Hopefully in the rematch round we see some wins. A lot of favorites didnt win such as Basaksehir,Rapid and others
July 21, 2022, 05:27:43 PM
was lazy to post my bets for today's games. In outcome I managed to make some profit. Probably most interesting game and biggest upset was Vorskla win 3:2 AIK. On paper it was home game for Vorskla, but they had to play in Sweden. AIK were favorites, but they had to equalize score twice. But in 2nd half Vorskla scored 3rd goal and won game.
Not bad day for Polish clubs. Lech and Rakow won their games big, Lechia achieved draw with heavy favourite Rapid. Only Pogon isn't happy probably after draw with Brondby at home.
Didn't expected that Riga FC will win so big against Ruzomberok - 0:3. What else, maybe Saburtal win against FCSB isn't expected, but it's just 1:0.
In general, not many big surprises, in many games everything will be decided in 2nd leg.
Not bad day for Polish clubs. Lech and Rakow won their games big, Lechia achieved draw with heavy favourite Rapid. Only Pogon isn't happy probably after draw with Brondby at home.
Didn't expected that Riga FC will win so big against Ruzomberok - 0:3. What else, maybe Saburtal win against FCSB isn't expected, but it's just 1:0.
In general, not many big surprises, in many games everything will be decided in 2nd leg.
July 21, 2022, 11:54:29 AM
There's another interesting underdog to take and that's Crusaders at 31/1 at Fairlay. I'm actually skipping this one though, as Basel are the opponents. It would be a perfect opp to bet on the other leg if Basel win this by 2 goals or more 
Liepeja were 15/1 yesterday according to Boristhecat, but are now 11/1 -- so either way, not a good take today anymore.
Lincoln Red Imps were 9/1 and 11/1 today!
IF you'd put money down even on both yesterday, your value evens out-ish.
FC Milsami 10/1 yesterday are over 11/1 today.
The safer bet of course is to take handicaps for all 3, even money, if just one of them doesn't lose, you're in profit. But since there's no fun in that, I'd rather win one of those and pocket at least 6x profit
good luck on the parlay @morvillz7z, I think it's decent, just not my leaning on these tight rounds.
Liepeja were 15/1 yesterday according to Boristhecat, but are now 11/1 -- so either way, not a good take today anymore.
Lincoln Red Imps were 9/1 and 11/1 today!
IF you'd put money down even on both yesterday, your value evens out-ish.
FC Milsami 10/1 yesterday are over 11/1 today.
The safer bet of course is to take handicaps for all 3, even money, if just one of them doesn't lose, you're in profit. But since there's no fun in that, I'd rather win one of those and pocket at least 6x profit
good luck on the parlay @morvillz7z, I think it's decent, just not my leaning on these tight rounds.
July 21, 2022, 10:39:35 AM
∆ Basel 1HF + Antwerp ML + MOL Fehervar ML @1.93 ∆ X
There are so many matches to choose from today, but i particularly like this three-team parlay on some of the heavy favorites. Confs. League favorites have shown to be more consistent in the early rounds than in the Champions League, where there have been numerous upsets. Don't expect either of Crusaders, Drita, or Gabala to do anything away from home. MOL won a prestigious pre-season friendly against Galatasaray, while Antwerp defeated Dyn. Kyiv and Salzburg.
There are so many matches to choose from today, but i particularly like this three-team parlay on some of the heavy favorites. Confs. League favorites have shown to be more consistent in the early rounds than in the Champions League, where there have been numerous upsets. Don't expect either of Crusaders, Drita, or Gabala to do anything away from home. MOL won a prestigious pre-season friendly against Galatasaray, while Antwerp defeated Dyn. Kyiv and Salzburg.
July 20, 2022, 11:20:44 AM
Missed a great opp yesterday I believe with Hibernians getting a home win, think the odds were 7/1 if I remember correctly. Today's few games are very tight, I'd stay away as they're all touch and go odds wise around 2/1.
But tomorrow we have some interesting prospects:
Liepeja are 136/10 against Young Boys (though the Swiss did last beat United in UCL haha).
Lincoln Red Imps are 9/1 against Tobol Kostanay
FC Milsami 10/1 against Kuopion Palloseura
I've already put down bets on the first 2, tomorrow another =)
But tomorrow we have some interesting prospects:
Liepeja are 136/10 against Young Boys (though the Swiss did last beat United in UCL haha).
Lincoln Red Imps are 9/1 against Tobol Kostanay
FC Milsami 10/1 against Kuopion Palloseura
I've already put down bets on the first 2, tomorrow another =)
136/10 means 13,6 odds?
At the moment there is an opportunity to bet on Liepaja with odds of 15 (on stake.com) and 12 on Milsami. You must have been a bit hasty as their quotes continue to fall. By the way, the bet on Liepaja looks tempting because they play at home and the odds are huge, but why Lincoln Red Imps and Milsami? They play away.
Away teams get shafted on odds, just for being the away team -- and on this scale, I doubt there's a big difference for them. Red Imps, for example, share one stadium with all Gibraltar teams, so it's not really like they know what an away stadium is like, and not like their home stadium is like an Anfield.
I'm not convinced in Europa and Conference home advantage matters so much (certainly for some clubs but not all).
Yeah odds have fallen on Liepeja but it's always touch and go with that, sometimes you get it worse, I didn't mind taking one rightaway.
July 20, 2022, 10:39:32 AM
Missed a great opp yesterday I believe with Hibernians getting a home win, think the odds were 7/1 if I remember correctly. Today's few games are very tight, I'd stay away as they're all touch and go odds wise around 2/1.
But tomorrow we have some interesting prospects:
Liepeja are 136/10 against Young Boys (though the Swiss did last beat United in UCL haha).
Lincoln Red Imps are 9/1 against Tobol Kostanay
FC Milsami 10/1 against Kuopion Palloseura
I've already put down bets on the first 2, tomorrow another =)
But tomorrow we have some interesting prospects:
Liepeja are 136/10 against Young Boys (though the Swiss did last beat United in UCL haha).
Lincoln Red Imps are 9/1 against Tobol Kostanay
FC Milsami 10/1 against Kuopion Palloseura
I've already put down bets on the first 2, tomorrow another =)
136/10 means 13,6 odds?
At the moment there is an opportunity to bet on Liepaja with odds of 15 (on stake.com) and 12 on Milsami. You must have been a bit hasty as their quotes continue to fall. By the way, the bet on Liepaja looks tempting because they play at home and the odds are huge, but why Lincoln Red Imps and Milsami? They play away.
July 20, 2022, 05:04:41 AM
Missed a great opp yesterday I believe with Hibernians getting a home win, think the odds were 7/1 if I remember correctly. Today's few games are very tight, I'd stay away as they're all touch and go odds wise around 2/1.
But tomorrow we have some interesting prospects:
Liepeja are 136/10 against Young Boys (though the Swiss did last beat United in UCL haha).
Lincoln Red Imps are 9/1 against Tobol Kostanay
FC Milsami 10/1 against Kuopion Palloseura
I've already put down bets on the first 2, tomorrow another =)
But tomorrow we have some interesting prospects:
Liepeja are 136/10 against Young Boys (though the Swiss did last beat United in UCL haha).
Lincoln Red Imps are 9/1 against Tobol Kostanay
FC Milsami 10/1 against Kuopion Palloseura
I've already put down bets on the first 2, tomorrow another =)
July 16, 2022, 07:48:41 AM
A fun fact is that teams who won the first game were eliminated in their second one while playing at home,Partizan Tirana was eliminated from a Georgian team in the extra time after penalties.They thought that they had achieved qualification since the first leg and took things to easy,result them being eliminated from penalties.It is true that Conference league will have many upset results with the passing of time as teams here are not of so much different in quality and even bookies are having hard times finding the correct odds.
Yeah, I've really been eyeing the Georgian teams in since Georgia topped their group in Nations League 2 years ago. They took me some nice big wins last year (Dinamo Tblisi especially, man those guys are so unpredictable).
Rijeka because of forum friends I keep an eye on too but these 2-legged affairs are amazing to bet on the away team (bookies boost them for no reason) or on the underdog (bigger teams I think have more money on the line, so skew the odds).
July 16, 2022, 03:06:33 AM
There is some big upsets so far in Conference League qualifiers. Probably main one is club from San Marino Tre Fiori managed to beat Fola from Luxembourg (odds were @6.00). Such things doesn't happen often. St. Josephs from Gibraltar beat Larne @8.50.
Good day for Faore Islands, 2 of their 3 teams reached next round. Maybe Vikingur win against Europa FC isn't surprise, but B36 Torshavn win after penalties against Borac Banja Luka isn't expected.
Flora is biggest chokers today. They had 2:0 lead (3:0 total), but then conceded 2 goals, got red card, conceded another goal and game moved to extra time. In extra time they got another red card and left with 9 players conceded another goal and lost game 4:2 against SJK.
Good day for Faore Islands, 2 of their 3 teams reached next round. Maybe Vikingur win against Europa FC isn't surprise, but B36 Torshavn win after penalties against Borac Banja Luka isn't expected.
Flora is biggest chokers today. They had 2:0 lead (3:0 total), but then conceded 2 goals, got red card, conceded another goal and game moved to extra time. In extra time they got another red card and left with 9 players conceded another goal and lost game 4:2 against SJK.
6/1 is an upset, but not even as big as Spartak Moskow beating Napoli last season (Europa, but it's the result I remember well). The problem with teams from San Marino and Malta, they're so hard to tell -- mercenaries mostly and not nationals, coming up against local boys from a low-ranked nation.
Does kind of happen a lot too actually, and I suspect Conference will add to those numbers.
Flora killed me plenty too and I think there's good value in identifying teams who're saddled with their country's ranking (Iceland for example or even Flora for Estonia).
Hope you made money!
A fun fact is that teams who won the first game were eliminated in their second one while playing at home,Partizan Tirana was eliminated from a Georgian team in the extra time after penalties.They thought that they had achieved qualification since the first leg and took things to easy,result them being eliminated from penalties.It is true that Conference league will have many upset results with the passing of time as teams here are not of so much different in quality and even bookies are having hard times finding the correct odds.
July 16, 2022, 02:58:51 AM
There is some big upsets so far in Conference League qualifiers. Probably main one is club from San Marino Tre Fiori managed to beat Fola from Luxembourg (odds were @6.00). Such things doesn't happen often. St. Josephs from Gibraltar beat Larne @8.50.
Good day for Faore Islands, 2 of their 3 teams reached next round. Maybe Vikingur win against Europa FC isn't surprise, but B36 Torshavn win after penalties against Borac Banja Luka isn't expected.
Flora is biggest chokers today. They had 2:0 lead (3:0 total), but then conceded 2 goals, got red card, conceded another goal and game moved to extra time. In extra time they got another red card and left with 9 players conceded another goal and lost game 4:2 against SJK.
Good day for Faore Islands, 2 of their 3 teams reached next round. Maybe Vikingur win against Europa FC isn't surprise, but B36 Torshavn win after penalties against Borac Banja Luka isn't expected.
Flora is biggest chokers today. They had 2:0 lead (3:0 total), but then conceded 2 goals, got red card, conceded another goal and game moved to extra time. In extra time they got another red card and left with 9 players conceded another goal and lost game 4:2 against SJK.
6/1 is an upset, but not even as big as Spartak Moskow beating Napoli last season (Europa, but it's the result I remember well). The problem with teams from San Marino and Malta, they're so hard to tell -- mercenaries mostly and not nationals, coming up against local boys from a low-ranked nation.
Does kind of happen a lot too actually, and I suspect Conference will add to those numbers.
Flora killed me plenty too and I think there's good value in identifying teams who're saddled with their country's ranking (Iceland for example or even Flora for Estonia).
Hope you made money!
July 14, 2022, 04:54:29 PM
There is some big upsets so far in Conference League qualifiers. Probably main one is club from San Marino Tre Fiori managed to beat Fola from Luxembourg (odds were @6.00). Such things doesn't happen often. St. Josephs from Gibraltar beat Larne @8.50.
Good day for Faore Islands, 2 of their 3 teams reached next round. Maybe Vikingur win against Europa FC isn't surprise, but B36 Torshavn win after penalties against Borac Banja Luka isn't expected.
Flora is biggest chokers today. They had 2:0 lead (3:0 total), but then conceded 2 goals, got red card, conceded another goal and game moved to extra time. In extra time they got another red card and left with 9 players conceded another goal and lost game 4:2 against SJK.
Good day for Faore Islands, 2 of their 3 teams reached next round. Maybe Vikingur win against Europa FC isn't surprise, but B36 Torshavn win after penalties against Borac Banja Luka isn't expected.
Flora is biggest chokers today. They had 2:0 lead (3:0 total), but then conceded 2 goals, got red card, conceded another goal and game moved to extra time. In extra time they got another red card and left with 9 players conceded another goal and lost game 4:2 against SJK.
July 14, 2022, 11:53:49 AM
So many unknown teams for me. Congratulations on your successful bet. Do you bet based only on the odds provided by the bookmakers or do you do a deeper analysis? It just seems to me that it will be difficult to find serious information on teams from the "small" leagues. Given the peculiarities of the League of Conferences, here among the participants there may be a team from the 2nd or even the third hundred in European football.
July 14, 2022, 10:58:30 AM
Bump! 
∆ Paide - Dinamo Tbilisi BTTS @1.61 ∆ X
I watched extended highlights from the first leg and can say Dinamo is the far superior team. They are excellent at controlling the tempo and creating chances, but they are dreadful defensively. All three of the Estonian goals came after a slew of individual blunders by Dinamo defenders, i mean so many mistakes...This can't be fixed in a week or with subs, so Paide will have their chances, and the result from the first leg works in their favor. I'm positive we will see goals here...
∆ Dunajska Streda DNB + FK Buducnost +0.5 @2.07 ∆ won
Given the difference in quality between the teams, Cliftonville is fortunate to be only one goal down. The team from Northern Ireland is as close as to amateurs as it can get. Given the result of the first leg, Dun. Streda will not rotate and will field their best squad. Anything else than a victory for the visitors will come as a huge surprise.
Buducnost impressed me, they have very good strikers up front and could have scored at least 2-3 goals more in the first game.
∆ Decic - Dinamo Minks BTTS @1.99 ∆ won
Felt like an extremely open match (based on the highlights that i watched), can't really say which team is the favorite to advance, but i expect goals, both ways.
∆ Paide - Dinamo Tbilisi BTTS @1.61 ∆ X
I watched extended highlights from the first leg and can say Dinamo is the far superior team. They are excellent at controlling the tempo and creating chances, but they are dreadful defensively. All three of the Estonian goals came after a slew of individual blunders by Dinamo defenders, i mean so many mistakes...This can't be fixed in a week or with subs, so Paide will have their chances, and the result from the first leg works in their favor. I'm positive we will see goals here...
∆ Dunajska Streda DNB + FK Buducnost +0.5 @2.07 ∆ won
Given the difference in quality between the teams, Cliftonville is fortunate to be only one goal down. The team from Northern Ireland is as close as to amateurs as it can get. Given the result of the first leg, Dun. Streda will not rotate and will field their best squad. Anything else than a victory for the visitors will come as a huge surprise.
Buducnost impressed me, they have very good strikers up front and could have scored at least 2-3 goals more in the first game.
∆ Decic - Dinamo Minks BTTS @1.99 ∆ won
Felt like an extremely open match (based on the highlights that i watched), can't really say which team is the favorite to advance, but i expect goals, both ways.
July 07, 2022, 08:42:01 PM
This should have been a 33-total odds winner if not for Dun. Streda's own goal, but even with a push it is still a decent win for me.
Here's another winner, my "transfermarkt parlay", picked the biggest difference in squad market value between opponents, in today's matches it was the two Polish teams and Dunajska Streda.
As you can see, i was all over Lechia Gdansk...i found info that the team from N. Macedonia lost the majority of its players in the offseason due to financial problems. Funny thing, the game was interrupted for a good 30-40 minutes due to a fight between Lechia fans. They were warned that if there was another incident after the delay, they would be forced to forfeit the game. The Lechia hooligans deserve credit for staying put the rest of the game.
July 07, 2022, 06:34:36 PM
Damn, today in the morning I made post with some tips for Conference league qualifiers, but I simply didn't ''Post'' button. And my post didn't even got saved in drafts. Well, shit happens sometimes . Considering that we had 26 games today, nothing strange that some had unexpected outcome. Magpies from Gibraltar (first time when I hear this team) beat Crusaders from N. Ireland 1:0. Olimpija failed to beat Differdange from Luxembourg. Tre Fiori from San Marino won against Fola away 0:1. Odds for it were @9.00
Estonian Paide made big upset in high scoring game and won 3:2 against Tbilisi Dinamo away. Other Estonian team won against SJK 1:0. Great day for Estonian football. Solid performance by Polish clubs, Pogon and Lechia won their games 4:1.
P.S. I follow UEFA cups qualifiers for very long time, but even for me there is so many teams that I hear for the first time. It's either their debut in Europe or they return to it after very long time.
. Considering that we had 26 games today, nothing strange that some had unexpected outcome. Magpies from Gibraltar (first time when I hear this team) beat Crusaders from N. Ireland 1:0. Olimpija failed to beat Differdange from Luxembourg. Tre Fiori from San Marino won against Fola away 0:1. Odds for it were @9.00Estonian Paide made big upset in high scoring game and won 3:2 against Tbilisi Dinamo away. Other Estonian team won against SJK 1:0. Great day for Estonian football. Solid performance by Polish clubs, Pogon and Lechia won their games 4:1.
P.S. I follow UEFA cups qualifiers for very long time, but even for me there is so many teams that I hear for the first time. It's either their debut in Europe or they return to it after very long time.
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