Topic: Venezuela (Read 2137 times)

Florida has 29 electoral votes and it will be very difficult (or impossible) for either of the two mainstream candidates to win the POTUS elections without winning the sunshine state. But what I don't understand is how the intervention in Venezuela can influence the voters in FL. There is a large Cuban American community in Florida, but the Venezuelan immigrants are not significant. Trump is not going to get any additional votes from the Hispanics, in case he topples Maduro in Venezuela. 

that's ridiculous

Let me guess, they're gonna send those lawmakers to the "venezuelan EL-DE Haus" called El Helicoide, right?

Feels like with everything that happened on April 30th (failed uprising), Maduro and his gang have gained anough confidence and strength to start going after the opposition, HARD, they're try to isolate Guaido to try to force to him to leave the country (since Maduro doesn't dare to do anything to him apparently).

Well that actually started with Chávez, Putin has been around all along these last couple of decades, either as president or vice-president. Since the very beginning the USA banned arms sales from American companies to Venezuela so Chavez went to the Russians back then and kept buying weapons, so you can say there is a business client relationship.

The "vice-president" Tareck is also supposedly close to certain groups from the middle east. such as Hezbollah, some opposition leaders even claim he harbors them.

The aftermath of the failed uprising on Apr 30th is that they are now imprisoning national assembly representatives. Parliamentary immunity? Overrated, they ignore the rule of law because no one dares to stop them, besides anyone objecting is thrown to prison as well, even judges...


Hmmpf. I lived thru that and it was well over within a week. From that myth came free gasoline, from free gasoline came the corrupt military generation who now happens to be high ranked, and unsurprisingly defend he who lets them a share of the pie...

The problem with Perez is that he actually came from a social democrat (reformist) party, and as you correctly point, he went against his party policies. Lets just say a "troyan" horse politician. But he had a good reason: Winning an election in this country without pledging yourself to socialism one way or another, is/was impossible. The socialist mentality of Venezuela starts in the 60ies, all politicians won votes by offering "free stuff", not a "better economy" which sounds dumb to the uneducated majority. This is typical populism, and is a culture that degenerated into what we have today. The sin started much earlier than Chávez.

I don't justify Perez methods, but a true honest pro capitalism free market politician never won any elections, and several tried. And yes, if he had remained a bit longer, perhaps Venezuela would be much better now. But back then the executive wasn't all mighty invincible, and he was trialed and made resign, something impossible today...

Why do you think so many had given up, packed and left?

I think the major sin of this troubled Maduro is his allegiance with Russia and US government don't want to see Russians calling the short in this South America country, and Maduro decision to stop accepting dollars for oil trade, can't tell if this was fully implemented. US government will hunt any top oil producing countries that are not super power, that plan to drop the USD for crude oil trade. Maduro has not helped his country economically.

Carlos Andres Perez, a former president of Venezuela, attempted a liberalization of the economy in the late '80s to early '90s. The result? Widespread demonstrations, vandalism and looting, and the rise of Hugo Chavez, who attempted a coup. The liberalization failed mainly because, firstly, the first price control to be removed was that of oil, understandably a sacred cow for Venezuelans, and, secondly, he campaigned against economic liberalism while running for office (and was a big economic interventionist during his first term), then went ahead and instituted it, at the behest of the IMF, World Bank and the US.

Check this out:
https://books.google.com/books?id=CUIiQCIygFcC&pg=PA10&lpg=PA10&redir_esc=y#v=onepage&q&f=false

Not turbine, 1 (auto)transformer. There were 3 but two of them are damaged, if this last transformer breaks the whole country goes dark (again).

Those 3 transformers were used for the very high voltage line from the south of the country to the north most populated areas. The same line that catched fire due to their irresponsible neglect in maintenance or even foliage cutting along the line. Who is going to believe their garbage anti US rhetoric? Not even their people, and yes they are masochists.

Maduro has neglected maintenance, in his avarice to keep the bloated budget running, instead of cutting "social" expenses (which they use to profit) he denies everything the State companies need to keep running, and the wages are the worst of the planet. Then ADD hyperinflation, due to his continued debt being paid by non existent money. That might work within the country but not abroad, the Chinese are not giving us loans anymore, and the Russians keep appearances but there you see him giving our gold away which is basically stolen Venezuelan minerals he has no rights to.

If he hadn't destroyed the economy with his lunatic real socialism economy, at least China could have brought us a solution. The Russians don't have suitable equipment and the actual sources are from countries not recognizing his regime.

The icing on the cake was Carabobo's governor Lacava, from Maduro's socialist party, recommending Maduro the privatization of electricity as a solution. We might see him ousted from the party in a few days and labeled traitor, or maybe not.

Well obviously privatization is one way to improve the situation without incurring in even more debt. But, how about stopping the absurd gasoline subsidy? No country in the world needs free gasoline, only Venezuela... Ridiculous. They rather impoverish the entire population because they can't pay debts than cut the obvious source of the problem. But then again that's also the main source of corruption within the military...

This issue of Venezuela will always be a problem as long as there is a government that is in power that only interests you is to stay there at any time, where there is not even the slightest chance of progress, where power cuts are made to order of the day

Which country will take away electrical service at any time? for 6.12 hours? and to say that they attack from the US, to an electrical system that is not digital but analogue, and that works only with 1 turbine in Guri (Dam) that if it is damaged, all of Venezuela is extinguished, because they are over-demanding their capacity, apart from they have no system or they are working on alternative solutions, but they are simply lengthening everything with such and remaining in power.

I know many workers of the company Corpoelec who say that the government has not even worried about getting new technology from the Russians and the Chinese to at least solve the problem of lighting, since the existing technology is German and of the USA, Obviously, those countries will they never help a tyrant, then? where is the delivery of its rulers? If every time they have a terrible failure, they blame Donald Trump? that's like hacking a blender, because blenders do not have access to digital.

How can Maduro's followers defend something like that? Are they people who like to suffer?

Trump CAN NOT win re-election without winning Florida. Trump barely won Florida in 2016 (won by ~1%) he is doing all he can to shore up Florida.  This entire Venezuela thing is designed to help Trump in Florida 2020.

Wow! So many different opinions.

I believe that Washington's only interest in Venezuela is to preserve the heavy oil exports for the Koch brothers, and to prevent the profits being given to the people of Venezuela, and don't forget the gold mining potential . Gold will become more important as the current fiat system collapses.

Washington seems to be intent on attacking most of the countries in the world at the moment, and that includes the United States.

Is Florida a key state when it comes to votes?

It is a bit odd that Marco Rubio, the senator of Florida, is one of the most (if not the most) anti-Maduro politicians in the US, he's always keeping an eye on everything that happens in Venezuela, the guy doesn't waste a second to display his view about Maduro & Co. He even goes as far as to post memes on this twitter: https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1103556681483591680 (The guy is Diosdado Cabello, to many, the 2nd in command of the dictatorship). That to me looks like an attempt to gain the sympathy of venezuelans (both in Venezuela and Florida)...Just saying.

You are a fucking muppet. Haven't you learned you are out of your depth yet with American let alone world politics? You have such strong convictions but so little actual knowledge about any of these subjects. You act like this is something different than any other nation who had the capability would do. Also the fact that you think this is all to drum up votes in what is already setting up to be a LANDSLIDE for him is so retarded it is beyond words. Do you really think it is worth losing his base by starting more wars to get some localized fringe minority in the US? Like I said you are a muppet and should stick to things you know like ice, hockey, maple syrup and alcoholism.

You are right on one thing though, that is the USA doesn't need to do this for oil, especially since it is a net oil exporter now. This is a stale trope that barely made sense in the past as a superficial marketing tool for wars, but was never really the objective.

This simply isn't true.  

While it is true that the US picks and chooses what dictators to support and which ones to dispose based on very selfish reasons, this time the US gives ZERO fucks about Venzuela's oil reserve's.  The US could have and did get as much oil as they wanted from the Maduro regime and have been getting oil from them for a long time.  The largest importer of oil to the US is Canada a 2 century old ally of the US, 4 of every 10 barrels of oil imported to the US comes from Canada.  The US could have chosen to dispose Maduro for the oil anytime in the last xx years but they chose NOW to do it.  This is 100% a political ploy to get the Venezuelan vote for Trump (Rubio gets the tangential benefit of it as well) in 2020 in Florida.


Florida in 2020. without Florida Trump has ZERO percent chance of being re-elected!

oil


there are many countries with dictators right now, there always are. US concentrates on "bringing democracy" to specific countries for specific reasons. In the case of Venezuela, it's oil (2nd highest confirmed oil reserves in the world)


Venezuelans are struck by the commodities curse: everyone who wants to "help" probably just wants to help themselves. Chinese gov, Russian gov and the Venezuelan gov are all as greedy as the US gov.

The US wants EVERYONE to keep out of Venezuela's shit, EXCEPT the US of motherfuckin A.  World police waving their dick in everyone's face!

I'm surprised at the naivete in this thread, generally speaking Trump is very receptive to dictators yet this one him and little Marco want GONE, could it have something to do with the large Venezuelan population in Florida (a state Trump MUST win if he wants to be re-elected in 2020...).

No government can survive with an approval rating below 20%. Realistically, I think it is somewhere around 40%. A lot of the poor people benefited from free healthcare and education during the Chavez era, and these people are still loyal to the socialists. On top of that, we should remember that some of the people who are leading the opposition are members of the Venezuelan UHNW community, and they don't enjoy widespread support among the mainstream Venezuelans.

It's unfortunate the economic and the political issues cannot be separated.

Comparable hyperinflations come to mind.

China 1948-1950, Germany 1921-1922, Zimbabwe ? 1990s.

There are different scenarios proposed from past history in the Americas. Intervention doesn't necessarily mean old fashioned troops on the ground (which is what those supporting Maduro would want). One of these was actually used in Libya, which was air control. Only this time there are far better unmanned flying vehicles that could establish 24/7 surveillance while... A surgical operation picks out the problem to be trialed in Hague or elsewhere (like Noriega).

But why would America spend resources to this end, what is IN for them? I don't think much, yet.

On April 30 they tried for the last time to convince the Venezuelan military to join Guaido. The 3rd in command (Maduro and Padrino being the first two) was surprisingly involved in this last attempt. That day it was evident that they didn't want to, so they aborted the operation and fled the country or went underground. The 2nd in command (Padrino) acted as if he was also going to defect, but didn't, and in fact lied to the Americans.

I'm not going to go into details of why the military won't participate in overthrowing Maduro anymore, but i can assure you it is not an act of loyalty, but more of survival. It is not evident that the situation will change any time soon, and they don't want to risk what little they have left. And, Chávez left an intelligence network inside (glorified snitches emulating a Cuban method) that makes everyone distrust each other. Besides many in the military participate in corruption or other criminal acts, they know if they fall they all fall. There is no hope for the Venezuelan military anymore.

What IS left? Not much, really. The opposition is not going to accept any elections where Maduro or anyone representing that group participates. Maduro on the other hand can eternally re-elect himself unopposed.

In the meantime, while this status quo remains, people keep dying. Sometimes demonstrators, sometimes the rampant crime, sometimes hunger or lack of medicine, but everything closely related to the State, or lack of. Unfortunately it is a State that cannot be criticized, where people can be detained without reason because you can't go against the authority and that is that. It is not exaggerate to think of Venezuela as a country being held hostage, with the victims living in it unable to do anything about it. Others see it as a giant prison, which is more or less the same thing.

If Maduro falls and is taken prisoner or such, millions will NOT go out to defend or rescue him. Maduro IS NOT Chávez, this is a critical difference some people don't quite understand. Sure some "leftist" groups would, probably go guerrilla warfare or so, but nothing resembling half the population like some would think 10 years ago back when Chávez was alive. This is a completely different Venezuela (or whats left of it).

Another possible scenario is neighboring countries forming a coalition to intervene. I think both Colombia and Brazil are willing to. This could probably be in coordination with the American complete air supremacy doctrine.

One idea is that after watching for real an intervention unfold, Maduro just might break and resign or surrender. Or he could play Martyr, it is unknown.

Do note that the opposition to Maduro is not equal to the support for the political opposition. There is also, a lot of disillusionment with them, even Guaidó. Due to their mistakes, lack of action at times, or late moves, hidden deals with the gov, etc. There are two decades of that already. Many people just gave up and left the country. Others just fled escaping poverty, and in some cases political persecution. About 10% of the population.

The approval rating of Maduro? Its like 15~20%.

You think Libya overthrew the government by themselves? That is cute. That was an intervention I did not support and the results were horrible, especially for the Libyan people. It is kind of hard to have a free and fair election when a dictator is in charge, especially when he has China and Russia's state power backing them. I can't say i want American troops in Venezuela, but I also am not naive enough to think we can allow China to use it as its South American military hub complete with fuel supply either.

War is not the solution. A free and fair election should do the trick.

I am not sure about the current approval level of Maduro, but there is a large segment of the population which remains loyal to him. In case the Americans go ahead with a military invasion, then his support base will grow and many millions will revolt against the invaders.

Till now, Juan Guaidó is unable to create a sizeable militia to fight against Maduro. He wants the Americans to do the dirty work for him. That's not going to work. If he has the popular support, then he can easily overthrow Maduro from power (just like what happened in countries such as Libya). If he is not capable of that, then I suspect that his support levels are quite low.