Topic: Venezuela - page 8. (Read 2137 times)

Things always change. Buy low, sell high.     

whats the point of cheap stuff if you have not a working economy and a happy society around it?

Venezuela coming to Mexico. Well, it's only a start. I wonder how long it will take.


Mexico is starting to look like Venezuela




If this gets bad enough, we should be able to pick up various kinds of property, including real estate, in Mexico very inexpensively. Do you remember the Road Warrior movies? Think of the fuel wars that are coming to Mexico.

"Forced" can be subjective. I would like to recommend a good book related to this subject.

https://www.amazon.com/Confessions-Economic-Hit-John-Perkins/dp/0452287081

It describes in detail how powers can in fact force countries to enter into debt, then start harvesting the nation of all of its resources.

Could be a trap, or could be their plan to remain in power. While North Korea placed their bets only in the military, the Chinese went for wealthiness (capitalism). After all, is not like you are forced to ask loans from them... Venezuela got them in exchange for oil AND supporting their international political position (ie. Taiwan, Tibet, Hong Kong...) during Chavez. But after Maduro did what he did to the economy, even China stopped loaning.

They became an attractive alternative to the World Bank and the World Monetary Fund, with their Chicago school of economy thinking (growth by debt).

They are doing the same in Africa, Pakistan and wherever they can get away with it. Its called the Chinese debt trap. https://qz.com/1223768/china-debt-trap-these-eight-countries-are-in-danger-of-debt-overloads-from-chinas-belt-and-road-plans/ - its clever if you ask me.

I'll give you this one, that's a fair remark.

You haven't heard?

America is now a net energy exporter.

And as for the media in the US, they are genuinely ignoring Venezuela because it doesn't fit with their concept of socialism working so wonderfully.

Lol at China staying neutral. China wants to LOOK neutral. Big difference.

Yes China is staying neutral wants to LOOK neutral, instead of supporting Maduro. That says A LOT. If it had been Chavez, they would have reacted like Russia. Unlike China, Russia has almost no investments in Venezuela. Venezuela has bought weapons and allowed a few housing building projects from Russia, but that's about it. They have also loaned very little money compared to China. They have some oil drilling like everybody else in the Orinoco belt region.

As for boots, nowadays you can military intervene without risking a single human (from your side). Aside from the classic manned air strikes, there are now unmanned air strikes. If the EU gets involved, as its starting too look like, then NATO could also be potentially involved; should Maduro remain stubborn. Then you get a repeat of Libya, where they mostly provided support from air while rebels on the ground seized power. The big difference is the Venezuelan opposition is unarmed, unlike the Libyans, so i don't know much about that scenario. But the chance that this could occur, can be enough to crack the de-facto gov. After all, there is unhappiness within "Maduro" ranks, and he has witch hunted and imprisoned 100+ military people. There are even rumors that the ministry of defense could turn at any moment. And unlike Chávez, Maduro is a civilian, and quite inept at commanding or inspiring troops.

The chance is big that this will be resolved peacefully with a strong hand, as in, expect a surrender at the last moment when they see it coming for real. Yes, there could be a few guerrilla groups here and there causing trouble later, but this the transitional government will have to deal with afterwards.

BREAKING 🔴 President Trump's Secretary of State Mike Pompeo makes Unprecedented Move on the World Stage regarding Venezuela at the UN Security Council

The 'light hand' is key though, I don't want American boots in the ground where it doesn't make any sense to have Americans on the ground.

If we can't handle the problem through sending foreign aid, monetary payments to support the new interim President, etc --I don't think its a problem we should get involved in then.

My rule is always to try to steer clear of boots on the ground.


Eh, I don't know about the last part about China. I think China is going to stay neutral in this (though I've seen stories saying they're supporting Maduro) only due to the fact that if Maduro falls, US businesses (and other western nations) are going to come in as they know they'll be able too. Who knows what's going to happen, this is a crazy situation like no other.

It appears the European Union is considering giving Maduro 8 days to call for presidential elections under fair conditions, or else they will support Guaidó. Then it wouldn't just be the United States, but the NATO could get involved as well...

EU drafting appeal for Venezuela's Maduro to call elections

In the meantime, at least the UK, France and Spain are already backing Guaidó, with Germany also sounding so: Guaido versus Maduro - Who backs Venezuela's two presidents?


According to Quartz; "Here’s a list of the countries that have taken a public position on the divided government."


My opinion on the Chinese is: they need a business partner, not an inept that can't run a country and keep it in eternal poverty. I believe they learned the hard way under Mao about the dead end that killing the economy is by sticking to "real socialism" dogmas. They have become pragmatic with the economy and adopted capitalism, without political freedom. Like the United States, Venezuela has the largest debt with China. Under Chávez, the economy in Venezuela looked more or less good, and they started investing and made heavy loans backed with oil, as some correctly pointed, to have a beach head for south America/Caribbean. But under Maduro, everything went to a grinding halt. I have watched the official Chinese news channel (its on the free terrestrial digital broadcast TV) and they don't hide the economy mistakes of Maduro's regime, in fact they criticize it.

My point is, China already invested in Venezuela, and they need the economy of Venezuela to actually work, not fail like it is doing right now. Maduro in 6+ years have shown zero signs of understanding this. In my opinion, under a new government, China will remain and in fact finally start their business (banks, rail construction, etc), because the debt is too large for the transitional government to get rid of them, so its simpler to comply with the agreements and let them do business along the Americans and Europeans who will undoubtedly come (Actually only the Americans left, the Europeans are still involved in the drilling oil business in the Orinoco belt region).

Is anyone anywhere going in that direction? I'd be happy to be wrong, but it seems like economic liberalism is being slowly and carefully crushed everywhere



Be watchful for the careful crushing I'm warning about. Liberal/libertarian political parties are always infested with politicians using the most cleverly crafted lies of everyone else in the political spectrum. It should be obvious why: political power is anathema to liberal ideals, true liberal/libertarian politicians would be essentially turkeys voting for christmas. They will tell you lies, or make themselves look stupid. In Venezuela, you'll probably get the lies, whereas in the established "liberal" countries the "look stupid" variety are more the norm.

It might be worth looking into more closely how the Chinese operate before making any conclusions about sovereignty.

Sovereign immunity will largely prevent creditors from collecting on any defaulted debt by the Venezuelan government, even debt secured by most assets.

Sovereign immunity is the fact that governments cannot be sued without their consent in their own courts, and some governments will extend this to foreign governments as well, depending on the specific circumstances.

It is effectively impossible to force Venezuela to give up any land located within the country without military intervention. The same is true for any assets (such as oil) located within Venezuela. The only assets that can potentially be seized are those outside of the country, so long as they are still owed by the government at the time of seizure.

This is a problem creditors of Argentina has had in the past. The Argentina government defaulted after granting US courts jurisdiction over disputes over specific debt, and creditors have had difficulty collecting via asset seizures after obtaining judgment because assets owned by the Argentina government are rarely located in jurisdictions that recognize the judgment.

It is really about the US and China. IMO Russia is acting as a proxy for them in this case so they can keep their plans for South America on the down low for as long as possible. This is not only part of China's economic plans of loan sharking every nation with natural resources it can, but an answer to the US exerting influence in what it considers its exclusive sphere of influence regarding Taiwan, the South China Sea, North Korea, etc. They want a foothold in South America putting them in a much stronger position economically and militarily to challenge the USA.

This is not good. These tensions may rush our next global economic crisis (which many people say it is imminent). It will be Bitcoin's first economic crisis. Let's see will bitcoin deal with it

https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-linked-military-contractors-in-venezuela-to-protect-maduro-2019-1


If Russia is sending troops doesn't that basically give the US a green light to send troops also?
You can hardly send troops yourself and then hypocritically oppose troops sent by anyone else..

If this is a battle between Russian influence and American influence, sorry, the USA needs to win...

No country in Latin America ever saw that
 There are many different interests here that doesn't allow the economy to simple become classic liberal overnight.

For decades allow the economies of the Continent have been very repressed, being the government the main actor in the economy (Keynesian policies or even socialist policies, like in Venezuela). This kind of capitalism  run by governments allows only few oligopolies run by big companies that linked to the government itself (like Odebrecht in Brazil, one of our biggest companies which it's only client is Brazil government or other corrupted governments. Odebrecht os involved in corruption in all Latin America and Africa and it's former CEO is in jail).

Free market and a liberal economy are obvious threats to those elites oligopolies.


It has to do with democracy imo. Maduro sent to jail all his opposition before the election. Only 40% of population voted, and he won. Later on the Congress was able to remove him from presidency because of corruption, but he refused to leave.
Then guaipo became interim president, according to constitution .

If a corrupted president cannot be removed by the Congress, it's not a democracy, but a dictatorship.

Actually the closest group (political party?) promoting classical liberalism/libertarianism is the one led by Maria Corina Machado: Vente Venezuela. Of course that is a debate for later, right now comes a transitional government. Then, when things calm down, and proper elections are made, this discussion will come to the table again. She does have lots of followers, not sure which group from the opposition would lead later, since right now everyone is united towards the common goal.

So the answer is yes!


No, only non essential personnel are leaving the US embassy.  Funny you mention Russia, as that is one of the few countries backing Maduro (dark purple):

Those in green are officially acknowledging Guaidó as President Interim... Yellow are calling for dialogue, gray have not pronounced yet.

(Thanks freedomno1 for this map!)