Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32250.

uyo

newbie

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Quote from: solex on September 29, 2013, 06:42:01 PM

It shows that the market did not crash when mtgox went away. It just continued from the same level as before. It means the following scenario is unlikely.

Quote from: uyo on September 29, 2013, 06:08:26 PM

... With gox losing its market share and ask sum at other exchanges growing, the market peaks and a crash follows.

Oh well, I see. But similar situation can result differently, when circumstances have changed.

solex

legendary

Activity: 1078

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100 satoshis -> ISO code

It shows that the market did not crash when mtgox went away. It just continued from the same level as before. It means the following scenario is unlikely.

Quote from: uyo on September 29, 2013, 06:08:26 PM

... With gox losing its market share and ask sum at other exchanges growing, the market peaks and a crash follows.

uyo

newbie

Activity: 36

Merit: 0

Quote from: solex on September 29, 2013, 06:26:23 PM

Quote from: uyo on September 29, 2013, 06:24:36 PM

Quote from: wachtwoord on September 29, 2013, 06:15:17 PM

Quote from: uyo on September 29, 2013, 06:08:26 PM

Just a piece of speculation, nothing that I advocate, but I believe I'm not alone to think about this.

Gox is likely sitting at nice stash of btc, and if they are insolvent, they might want to sell large portion of btc at the highest possible price.
So gox manipulates the price and makes others to follow, until volume there is enough high to make them so.
Rising price can also induce more interest in bitcoin and thus influx of newcomers buying into btc (most of them may not be buying at gox, but still easing their effort by eating sell walls at other exchanges). Also, here could be helpful the secondmarket news, to which the rally would be accredited in media, thus finding more plausible and bullish explanation for the raise.
Where that goes is clear. In later stage of rally gox starts to dump (not only on their own exchange of course). Also more players exit their positions. With gox losing its market share and ask sum at other exchanges growing, the market peaks and a crash follows.

MtGox' market share is worth so much more than what they could gain with such a scheme.

Hypothetically, if gained profit could help them to resolve the issue with withdrawals, their decline in the market share would stop.

Also, MtGox does not influence the broad trend. Check out this chart and spot the period when MtGox was closed for 8 days, when it had a much larger market share (80%) than today.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigDailyzczsg2011-05-02zeg2011-09-01ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

Hmmmm... I'm not sure how to interpret this. Doesn't it say opposite? Price didn't change much when they re-opened , since everybody was waiting on them?

solex

legendary

Activity: 1078

Merit: 1006

100 satoshis -> ISO code

Quote from: uyo on September 29, 2013, 06:24:36 PM

Quote from: wachtwoord on September 29, 2013, 06:15:17 PM

Quote from: uyo on September 29, 2013, 06:08:26 PM

Just a piece of speculation, nothing that I advocate, but I believe I'm not alone to think about this.

Gox is likely sitting at nice stash of btc, and if they are insolvent, they might want to sell large portion of btc at the highest possible price.
So gox manipulates the price and makes others to follow, until volume there is enough high to make them so.
Rising price can also induce more interest in bitcoin and thus influx of newcomers buying into btc (most of them may not be buying at gox, but still easing their effort by eating sell walls at other exchanges). Also, here could be helpful the secondmarket news, to which the rally would be accredited in media, thus finding more plausible and bullish explanation for the raise.
Where that goes is clear. In later stage of rally gox starts to dump (not only on their own exchange of course). Also more players exit their positions. With gox losing its market share and ask sum at other exchanges growing, the market peaks and a crash follows.

MtGox' market share is worth so much more than what they could gain with such a scheme.

Hypothetically, if gained profit could help them to resolve the issue with withdrawals, their decline in the market share would stop.

Also, MtGox does not influence the broad trend. Check out this chart and spot the period when MtGox was closed for 8 days, when it had a much larger market share (80%) than today.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg60zigDailyzczsg2011-05-02zeg2011-09-01ztgSzm1g10zm2g25zv

uyo

newbie

Activity: 36

Merit: 0

Quote from: wachtwoord on September 29, 2013, 06:15:17 PM

Quote from: uyo on September 29, 2013, 06:08:26 PM

Just a piece of speculation, nothing that I advocate, but I believe I'm not alone to think about this.

Gox is likely sitting at nice stash of btc, and if they are insolvent, they might want to sell large portion of btc at the highest possible price.
So gox manipulates the price and makes others to follow, until volume there is enough high to make them so.
Rising price can also induce more interest in bitcoin and thus influx of newcomers buying into btc (most of them may not be buying at gox, but still easing their effort by eating sell walls at other exchanges). Also, here could be helpful the secondmarket news, to which the rally would be accredited in media, thus finding more plausible and bullish explanation for the raise.
Where that goes is clear. In later stage of rally gox starts to dump (not only on their own exchange of course). Also more players exit their positions. With gox losing its market share and ask sum at other exchanges growing, the market peaks and a crash follows.

MtGox' market share is worth so much more than what they could gain with such a scheme.

Hypothetically, if gained profit could help them to resolve the issue with withdrawals, their decline in the market share would stop.

TERA

hero member

Activity: 728

Merit: 500

This gox run, after reaching a $19-$22 gap with other exchanges, have caused prices to finally break out over key chart levels on other exchanges and eat through the endless resistance walls. However, this break out is short lived, on low volume, and lacking bid support. Now prices are going down again, as if nothing happened... Will this rally succeed?

And are we supposed to believe that someone is still wiring millions of usd into gox?

Walsoraj

hero member

Activity: 686

Merit: 500

Ultranode

Quote from: wachtwoord on September 29, 2013, 06:15:17 PM

Quote from: uyo on September 29, 2013, 06:08:26 PM

Just a piece of speculation, nothing that I advocate, but I believe I'm not alone to think about this.

Gox is likely sitting at nice stash of btc, and if they are insolvent, they might want to sell large portion of btc at the highest possible price.
So gox manipulates the price and makes others to follow, until volume there is enough high to make them so.
Rising price can also induce more interest in bitcoin and thus influx of newcomers buying into btc (most of them may not be buying at gox, but still easing their effort by eating sell walls at other exchanges). Also, here could be helpful the secondmarket news, to which the rally would be accredited in media, thus finding more plausible and bullish explanation for the raise.
Where that goes is clear. In later stage of rally gox starts to dump (not only on their own exchange of course). Also more players exit their positions. With gox losing its market share and ask sum at other exchanges growing, the market peaks and a crash follows.

MtGox' market share is worth so much more than what they could gain with such a scheme.

Gox is capable of making all kinds of idiotic business moves.

wachtwoord

legendary

Activity: 2324

Merit: 1125

Quote from: uyo on September 29, 2013, 06:08:26 PM

Just a piece of speculation, nothing that I advocate, but I believe I'm not alone to think about this.

Gox is likely sitting at nice stash of btc, and if they are insolvent, they might want to sell large portion of btc at the highest possible price.
So gox manipulates the price and makes others to follow, until volume there is enough high to make them so.
Rising price can also induce more interest in bitcoin and thus influx of newcomers buying into btc (most of them may not be buying at gox, but still easing their effort by eating sell walls at other exchanges). Also, here could be helpful the secondmarket news, to which the rally would be accredited in media, thus finding more plausible and bullish explanation for the raise.
Where that goes is clear. In later stage of rally gox starts to dump (not only on their own exchange of course). Also more players exit their positions. With gox losing its market share and ask sum at other exchanges growing, the market peaks and a crash follows.

MtGox' market share is worth so much more than what they could gain with such a scheme.

uyo

newbie

Activity: 36

Merit: 0

Just a piece of speculation, nothing that I advocate, but I believe I'm not alone to think about this.

Gox is likely sitting at nice stash of btc, and if they are insolvent, they might want to sell large portion of btc at the highest possible price.
So gox manipulates the price and makes others to follow, until volume there is enough high to make them so.
Rising price can also induce more interest in bitcoin and thus influx of newcomers buying into btc (most of them may not be buying at gox, but still easing their effort by eating sell walls at other exchanges). Also, here could be helpful the secondmarket news, to which the rally would be accredited in media, thus finding more plausible and bullish explanation for the raise.
Where that goes is clear. In later stage of rally gox starts to dump (not only on their own exchange of course). Also more players exit their positions. With gox losing its market share and ask sum at other exchanges growing, the market peaks and a crash follows.

prophetx

legendary

Activity: 1666

Merit: 1010

he who has the gold makes the rules

i have noticed that there always appears to be a run up in price prior to the 1st of the month... wonder if the same is happening again

solex

legendary

Activity: 1078

Merit: 1006

100 satoshis -> ISO code

Quote from: theonewhowaskazu on September 29, 2013, 03:55:55 PM

Quote from: markjamrobin on September 29, 2013, 03:39:13 PM

Why do we care, it will be a good thing, pay down the national debt. As long as police/fire operate, it will be ok. NSA could use a day off.

We care because it doesn't pay down the national debt. It actually raises it in 3 ways:
1) We actually DON'T collect money the government is due that day. I.e, we miss out on some income.
2) We delay spending that can cost more in the future, think like 'late fees'.
3) We erode confidence in the government resulting in having to potentially pay higher interest rates in the future.

In general, doing nothing is pretty much the worst way of getting out of debt ever.

I am far more interested in Bitcoin revolutionizing the world economy for the 21st century, which is much more important than Obozo and the Congresscritters who can't even run a circus with a balanced budget using $2,200 billion of tax revenue.

David M

sr. member

Activity: 476

Merit: 250

All Time Weekly Closing High.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#igWeeklyztgCza1gWMAzm1g13zm2g25

While the likelihood of a double top is still there, my monies on a up break out.

SheHadMANHands

legendary

Activity: 1168

Merit: 1000

hmm...

theonewhowaskazu

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

Quote from: markjamrobin on September 29, 2013, 03:39:13 PM

Quote from: BitcoinAshley on September 29, 2013, 03:32:16 PM

Quote from: rpg on September 29, 2013, 01:09:26 PM

if you guys haven't notice the US federal government will be shut down on tuesday. The democrats/republicans war is going to be fun. And that is why gold, silver and yes BTC are running. It should be a fun day tomorrow. I predict $200 BTC this week

Last few times people were 100% convinced of this, the gov't managed a last-minute deal. Sure, "This time is different." Who knows, it might be. But forgive me for being skeptical.

Why do we care, it will be a good thing, pay down the national debt. As long as police/fire operate, it will be ok. NSA could use a day off.

We care because it doesn't pay down the national debt. It actually raises it in 3 ways:
1) We actually DON'T collect money the government is due that day. I.e, we miss out on some income.
2) We delay spending that can cost more in the future, think like 'late fees'.
3) We erode confidence in the government resulting in having to potentially pay higher interest rates in the future.

In general, doing nothing is pretty much the worst way of getting out of debt ever.

virp13

newbie

Activity: 10

Merit: 0

Hard times Cheesy

really no one knows what next?

markjamrobin

sr. member

Activity: 462

Merit: 250

Quote from: BitcoinAshley on September 29, 2013, 03:32:16 PM

Quote from: rpg on September 29, 2013, 01:09:26 PM

if you guys haven't notice the US federal government will be shut down on tuesday. The democrats/republicans war is going to be fun. And that is why gold, silver and yes BTC are running. It should be a fun day tomorrow. I predict $200 BTC this week

Last few times people were 100% convinced of this, the gov't managed a last-minute deal. Sure, "This time is different." Who knows, it might be. But forgive me for being skeptical.

Why do we care, it will be a good thing, pay down the national debt. As long as police/fire operate, it will be ok. NSA could use a day off.

wachtwoord

legendary

Activity: 2324

Merit: 1125

Quote from: BitcoinAshley on September 29, 2013, 03:32:16 PM

Quote from: rpg on September 29, 2013, 01:09:26 PM

if you guys haven't notice the US federal government will be shut down on tuesday. The democrats/republicans war is going to be fun. And that is why gold, silver and yes BTC are running. It should be a fun day tomorrow. I predict $200 BTC this week

Last few times people were 100% convinced of this, the gov't managed a last-minute deal. Sure, "This time is different." Who knows, it might be. But forgive me for being skeptical.

When playing the game 'chicken' (with cars) someone always steers away.

Until they don't.

BitcoinAshley

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

Quote from: rpg on September 29, 2013, 01:09:26 PM

if you guys haven't notice the US federal government will be shut down on tuesday. The democrats/republicans war is going to be fun. And that is why gold, silver and yes BTC are running. It should be a fun day tomorrow. I predict $200 BTC this week

Last few times people were 100% convinced of this, the gov't managed a last-minute deal. Sure, "This time is different." Who knows, it might be. But forgive me for being skeptical.

QuestionAuthority

legendary

Activity: 2156

Merit: 1393

You lead and I'll watch you walk away.

Quote from: ElectricMucus on September 29, 2013, 03:00:38 PM

Quote from: QuestionAuthority on September 29, 2013, 02:54:04 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on September 29, 2013, 02:23:53 PM

At this point I think that mtgox doesn't know what's going on either. That means they have no idea what's wrong with their banks, they just can't access their funds.
It seems to me that the FEDs have frozen or at least partially suspended their accounts. This would also be in tune with the Roger Ver Video. (Irony is that's the last we've heard something from them.)

Yeah, why is that? I haven't seen Charlie from Bitinstant, Roger Ver or anyone from BitPay post here in a long time. Are they under a gag order or what?

Perhaps they think anything they can tell us would make the situation worse, and perhaps they're right.

They're not even visiting the forum. I had a friend that I turned on to Bitcoin and was going to help them set up their business to accept it. I sent everyone I could think of at BitPay a PM trying to get them help because the company email wasn't being answered. No response so my friend gave up.

ElectricMucus

legendary

Activity: 1666

Merit: 1057

Marketing manager - GO MP

Quote from: QuestionAuthority on September 29, 2013, 02:54:04 PM

Quote from: ElectricMucus on September 29, 2013, 02:23:53 PM

At this point I think that mtgox doesn't know what's going on either. That means they have no idea what's wrong with their banks, they just can't access their funds.
It seems to me that the FEDs have frozen or at least partially suspended their accounts. This would also be in tune with the Roger Ver Video. (Irony is that's the last we've heard something from them.)

Yeah, why is that? I haven't seen Charlie from Bitinstant, Roger Ver or anyone from BitPay post here in a long time. Are they under a gag order or what?

Perhaps they think anything they can tell us would make the situation worse, and perhaps they're right.

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32250. (Read 26473928 times)