Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32288. (Read 26407194 times)

that doesnt mean people will start selling bitcoins asap. my mining rig didnt pay for itself and its reason i wont sell them cheap.

I surely don't know what's the %, but I surely know there are a lot of newcomers spending all their fiat savings (tens of k's of $) in miners because they think they will break even in one month and then they will have a x10 ROI in the first year... Loan or no loan I don't know, but you can be sure they are throwing at this more money they can afford to lose because they think this is a "no brainer" and they do not want to "miss the train".

I know for sure because I've been meeting/discussing with a lot of guys like that since March, both in cyber and meatspace.

There will be a lot of pain for miners very soon, you will see.

You really think people took loans to buy ASICs? I bet you most asic owners are early adopters from GPU times.

agree

I'm sure you know the bubble started more or less when block reward halved, which was a moment when nobody had ASICs yet, 99% of the network were GPU and FPGA miners... Those already had their rigs paid off long ago (no new GPU and FPGA miners for a while because everybody was expecting ASICs since last summer), so as soon as they saw their proceeds halved they started to hold like mofos, creating scarcity of coins, which made the price to grow - the growing price attracted speculators, speculators bought driving the price high, the media started to run stories about how Bitcoin price was growing, which attracted more speculators, etc... Wash rinse and repeat, speculative bubble in its purest form.

This cycle is about to invert when ASICs will be widespread. Same thing happened in 2011 with GPUS.

Most of GPU miners didn't want ROI as soon as possible, as I explained earlier - they counted on reselling their GPUs, and they were mostly hobbyist. But I'm a miner myself, I know a lot of miners, I've seen in first person who are the customers of companies like KnC and how much they are spending, and you have to understand that this last media bubble exposed Bitcoin to a lot of new and uneducated people who run profit calculators at current difficulty (without having their miners yet), they do not even understand that difficulty is growing exponentially, and at the end of the day there is a "gold rush" in which a lot of new people is entering mining because they think they will get rich quick... So we have now a) a lot of individuals investing money they cannot afford to lose on BTC miners, and as you surely know there is a "get-rich-quick" feeling on BTC - they think they will recoup their investment FAST, and this is why they are putting in this game more money they should; b) there are more and more "professional" miners that are investing money in mining with the only intention of generating profit - they will run their operations as a business. That people has to pay for huge electricity costs, renting of industrial places where they will host their operations, etc. etc. etc. A lot of fiat expenses to cover.

During the GPU era, I rarely saw a) and b) miners, most were small-time hobbyist, running their rigs in their bedrooms. During this change to ASIC, I'm seeing a lot of both a) and b). This people needs to recoup fiat ASAP.

Well, if the price gets high, it would make sense to sell to lock in profits. But if that's what people were doing, the bubble would not have been quite so crazy.

Exactly, I dont see why on this forums people seem to think that miners want to get ROI as soon as possible. I think 90% of them will just mine and hoard, for years

problem is, allot of those miners won't get ROI for many months. Knowing this, I would expect most (except for those who took out loans) to choose to wait for higher prices before getting their fiat back.

Just finishing my morning coffee and checked in to see we're stuck in the same directionless dither as yesterday afternoon, but a buck lower due to that one 2k+ dump last night.

Whales, whales, please come out and play. My popcorn is getting stale.

The whales are probably laughing at his "call".

peanuts...

i see that too

Someone is having fun flashing 500BTC at $97.5

Yep, it's true, I've been a "100% BTC" miner myself, but I'm seeing a shift in the sentiment with the ASICs. I see people wanting to recover their fiat, and only then hoarding.

That's the problem with mining. It's filled with irrational actors. If you're looking to make a profit, you'll be competing with people (like me*) who will mine even at a loss. It might have worked for a while when hardware to hash was rare but now it's out there and cheap and you can't even hope to resell it for alternate use later.

Supply and demand dictates that this means miners end up operating at marginal profits or none at all. The only wildcard is the future price of Bitcoin. If it rises as it should, it turns into a good investment for early adopters. Of course, if everyone is expecting high prices later, that increases the loss miners are willing to mine at. Miners who are operating in this zone are likely to hold since an immediate sell means immediate loss (or they may be believers in which case they are holding simply to have later. Not everyone needs to realize short-term profits on their investments).


*I do a little mining on the side as a hobby but it's insignificant.

Isn't this wonderful? I love it!

yep, so for those people, the selling (via asic manufacturer) of the BTC has already ocurred. Next up: mining like hell without selling.

I'm not sure however, how large that group is compared to the group that wants to recover fiat.

I do not predict the development that we see during the day.
I wanted "only" to highlight the point that tell us more about further development and that increases the likelihood of possible options.
But in my opinion we can:
stay bellow the resistance with side movement for a few hours or days (40:60)
correct current top to down after 50% bounce (35:65)
or continue rally over 104 (25:75)