Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32516. (Read 26471961 times)

so... umm.. "in 2 weeks"??

Sorry my chart sending abilities are temporarily on haitus, maybe next year i'll send them over.

lol, can you make some charts?

Sure here ya are:

Gox Withdraw: 2 weeks - 3 months.
Bitcointalk: 2-3 seconds a page.

Forum's slow for me too.

Are there site traffic stats anywhere?

You are not in a position to make fun of people's predictions. Believe me.

Someone posted a graph that shows total bid / total ask on mtgox over time, interested to see that. 

@adamstgBit, vokain

I'm a bit late, previous post on this topic already two pages behind us, but I'd like to add one remark about the Accumulation/Distribution indicator and what to gather from it.

I would be very careful looking at it in absolute terms. It's almost useless in that respect, in my opinion. So looking at the difference in absolute value between bit and mtg doesn't say much, other than (as chodpaba already said) that historically, volume was higher on mtg and thus the absolute value of A/D is higher.

Similarly for absolute peaks and absolute lows of A/D. I don't think they can be really used for predicting anything.

What I find somewhat useful is to contrast A/D with it's volume-based brethren PVT and OBV, that are all, in one way or another, trying to estimate the "actual" capital entering/leaving the market, as opposed to the relatively uninformative market cap method of multiplying coins with current price.

The difference, in my understanding, between PVT and OBV on the one hand, and CMF, A/D on the other is that the former are closer to an attempt to estimate the net volume *in* the market, while the latter is more concerned with a series of *trends* of how money enters/leaves the market.

The obvious example is that the way CMF and A/D (basically the cumulative version of CMF) are calculated, they can be *positive* even if closing price is lower than opening price for a given period, as long as the closing price is above the middle point of high and low of that period.

That might look like a problem (one which PVT and OBV don't have, btw), and it also seems to be common to file it under "criticism" of the method, but I see it slightly differently: it's a way to combine minor, individual price/volume trends as a series, to get a feeling if the market is more "optimistic" or rather "pessimistic".

Sorry for the vague terminology :/ It's simply that I can't describe it much better right now. The way I interpret the A/D graphs I posted is that we're in a phase of (mild) consolidation/optimism after the last long slide down, and that the optimism/buying pressure is somewhat greater on bit than on mtg, because of the rate at which A/D is growing currently on bit vs. its (near) stagnation on mtg.

Which to me becomes *really* surprising considering that we would expect selling pressure to dominate bit, given the "buy on mtg, sell on bit, to escape the mtg fiat trap" hypothesis that most people on here seem to follow.

Has bitcointalk been going really slow for anybody the last couple days? I'm not sure if it's the internet i'm using (i'm on a trip) or if its the forum itself...?

The RSI is also not looking good at all there.

I use to sell on localbitcoins but no longer due because i'm worried of the legality of it. I've also attended a few bitcoin conferences where these regulations in specific were discussed.

Not saying I agree with this bs though...


I hope we're headed back to the 80's, I've sold most my bitcoins for the time being.

Without the whale buyer to move the market up, we may be slowly going down for a while.
It's possible that the whale buyer does not want to buy above 100, so he may wait for the price to drop.

So, is this a proper breakout over 100 or just another temporary blip before the next plunge?

If 100 doesn't hold, it will be interesting to see if we fall back to above or below 90 (EDIT: changed from Bitstamp value!). If it does hold, it could mean we are entering a bull market.

I'm standing by my bet of us still being in a bear market for a few more months yet, but I'm finding it hard to predict where it is going to go currently. Perhaps that is because we are getting close to the bottom (or have passed it!  )?


EDIT: BTW, take a look at the chart from mid-June. 100 was a support for two rallies which failed to breach 115. 115 was the support level for much of May.

Do you know how unworkably absurd that sounds to real people? ... and yet you parrot it like it should mean something deep to someone.

If you are playing with virtual currencies on the internet you need to be registered with the Federal govt. ... uh-huh. Is that like in the rules for the MMPOG game or something, like the virtual in-world Federal govt. or the Galactic Federation Council of Elders?

I'm sure you've got better things to be doing with your time than reminding everyone of all their obligations under the massive set of federal laws now at their disposal. I bet you could find someone doing something wrong every minute of every day and you could talk to in a stern voice ... "Do you realise that it is black and white ... blah-blah-blah ... tune out.... illegal?" Is that your goal in life?

Correct, the guidance is not a law, however it means that bitcoin is covered under the already existing laws.

I digress though, maybe this isn't a discussion for here, but over in the Legal subforum (there's already multiple for the same topic under way).

Statism frequently ends up using arbitrary threats. There is little in the way of principles guiding such laws - it's just 'might is right', with some lobbying thrown in.

AFAIK, Fincen paper is just a "guidance" at this moment. No Laws for the moment, so no obligation.