Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32713. (Read 26469517 times)
July 07, 2013, 05:08:24 AM
I can feel a Winkledump coming.
July 07, 2013, 05:01:02 AM
July 07, 2013, 04:53:47 AM
If 50 is broken then we go through the process that is called capitulation. People like you will think Bitcoin is dead and abandon all hope. But we will reach a bottom eventually, even though many here will keep saying that we haven't hit bottom yet and that it will get worse and worse. When price hit $2 in 2011 people still kept shouting that price would go to $1 and below, even by well respected and knowledgeable forum members. But it didn't, and the ones who bought throughout all the panic made huge amounts of profit in the end. Now I'm not saying that 50 will be broken and that we go through this entire process again, but there is a reasonable chance it will and it will not be the end of Bitcoin.
this.
And the fact that even a stubborn perma-bull like me recognizes the possibility of another massive drop down to 50 or even below might be seen as an indication that the bottom is in soon.
It's usually the bottom when I stupidly sell coins in panic. We're not quite there yet, but I'm starting to not feel so well any more and I'll probably panic below 50 (hopefully I'll be far from a computer at that point).
On the other hand I'm starting to feel greed boil up that wants to throw more fiat at the thing before the train leaves again...
Interesting times in any case.
Put them in a cold wallet. Make a paper backup. Delete the wallet. Put the paper backup in a spot you cannot very conveniently reach (bank vault). Only add to the wallet at current depressed prices.
Minus the putting the backup out of reach this is what I did. I don't need to put it away because I won't be temped.
July 07, 2013, 04:22:09 AM
Is the market doing something new?
It seems to be crabbing sideways at $68. Just as the recent peak at $136 was a flat-top with no volume spike. Maybe it is having a flat-bottom at this current level.
It seems to be crabbing sideways at $68. Just as the recent peak at $136 was a flat-top with no volume spike. Maybe it is having a flat-bottom at this current level.
I think everything looks that we will test the latest lows soon.
But at such a low volume, can any greater Bid or dump change a lot.
July 07, 2013, 04:17:48 AM
If 50 is broken then we go through the process that is called capitulation. People like you will think Bitcoin is dead and abandon all hope. But we will reach a bottom eventually, even though many here will keep saying that we haven't hit bottom yet and that it will get worse and worse. When price hit $2 in 2011 people still kept shouting that price would go to $1 and below, even by well respected and knowledgeable forum members. But it didn't, and the ones who bought throughout all the panic made huge amounts of profit in the end. Now I'm not saying that 50 will be broken and that we go through this entire process again, but there is a reasonable chance it will and it will not be the end of Bitcoin.
this.
And the fact that even a stubborn perma-bull like me recognizes the possibility of another massive drop down to 50 or even below might be seen as an indication that the bottom is in soon.
It's usually the bottom when I stupidly sell coins in panic. We're not quite there yet, but I'm starting to not feel so well any more and I'll probably panic below 50 (hopefully I'll be far from a computer at that point).
On the other hand I'm starting to feel greed boil up that wants to throw more fiat at the thing before the train leaves again...
Interesting times in any case.
Bulls hoping the train to leave again automatically after touching the 50's . Sure with the help of whales price can prop 10 to 30 points up, giving a sentiment of rally again..But with no advancement in the Bitcoin economy, less and less influx of USD and constant supply of coins from asic companies/miners,the underlying mid term trend looks downwards barring any excellent news (like new EU bankrupt country).
So I believe its going for a long slide down well below 50's.
I too have a secret plan in place for a more 'reasonable' price of $5 a coin. A cataclysmic event might arise that would offer such possibility..
July 07, 2013, 04:12:30 AM
Is the market doing something new?
It seems to be crabbing sideways at $68. Just as the recent peak at $136 was a flat-top with no volume spike. Maybe it is having a flat-bottom at this current level.
It seems to be crabbing sideways at $68. Just as the recent peak at $136 was a flat-top with no volume spike. Maybe it is having a flat-bottom at this current level.
July 07, 2013, 04:02:55 AM
No matter what I'm buyin back in at $2. I'm not waiting for $1.
now that's a plan
July 07, 2013, 03:59:38 AM
No matter what I'm buyin back in at $2. I'm not waiting for $1.
July 07, 2013, 03:46:47 AM
If 50 is broken then we go through the process that is called capitulation. People like you will think Bitcoin is dead and abandon all hope. But we will reach a bottom eventually, even though many here will keep saying that we haven't hit bottom yet and that it will get worse and worse. When price hit $2 in 2011 people still kept shouting that price would go to $1 and below, even by well respected and knowledgeable forum members. But it didn't, and the ones who bought throughout all the panic made huge amounts of profit in the end. Now I'm not saying that 50 will be broken and that we go through this entire process again, but there is a reasonable chance it will and it will not be the end of Bitcoin.
this.
And the fact that even a stubborn perma-bull like me recognizes the possibility of another massive drop down to 50 or even below might be seen as an indication that the bottom is in soon.
It's usually the bottom when I stupidly sell coins in panic. We're not quite there yet, but I'm starting to not feel so well any more and I'll probably panic below 50 (hopefully I'll be far from a computer at that point).
On the other hand I'm starting to feel greed boil up that wants to throw more fiat at the thing before the train leaves again...
Interesting times in any case.
July 07, 2013, 01:34:15 AM
It's not enough to have your money in fiat in MtGox - get it bank in your bank or kiss it all goodbye.
Goxs doesn't need dead USD or BTC in a/c's to survive do they, they live of the trading commissions. IF USD in Gox can't be transferred, well have to wait till the next hype cycle, 2014 i guess.
July 07, 2013, 12:32:05 AM
As someone who's pulled out, I just gotta say that it was a pain in the ass to actually get my money back to my bank. Buy BTC to transfer coins to CampBx, then sell and transfer cash back to my dwolla. All this while paying commissions, crappy spreads, sluggish UIs, and transfer delays. When the capitulation happens, that exit channel is going to be like the golden gate bridge during a zombie apocalypse: People will be crushing each other to get out, and in my opinion, a number of services are going to go bankrupt in the process. It's not enough to have your money in fiat in MtGox - get it bank in your bank or kiss it all goodbye.
July 06, 2013, 10:51:31 PM
I have to say I sadly agree with some of your points regarding value, purchasing ability and market penetration. All these issues are showing a big fail in Bitcoin development over the last year, which I've been preaching about. The unregulated free for all anti-fiat currency of the future has merely become a financial platform for big fiat fishes. Most of the development has shifted towards that focus, ignoring usability and every day commerce.
I think, however, you're wrong in your conclusion. Even if what you say happens and 99% of the people leave when/if we go below 50, that's REBIRTH, not death. The people left will then be in charge of steering the project back on track, hopefully in the right direction this time, but it may even take several tries of this whole process. If Bitcoin goes into a slumber, there's a reason for it, and it needs to be corrected. The fundamental values of the original concept will always be valid and valuable, up until the day there is a stronger crypto-currency or alt-money to compete with fiat.
And that's the bottom line, the demand for Bitcoin (outside of speculation), is in reality the demand for an (unregulated) alternative for gov' controlled fiat. As long as there is no bigger player in this segment, Bitcoin cannot die.
You know, this is a totally valid view point. Some sources suggest that literally 100's of millions of people around the globe have at least heard of Bitcoin. Maybe the $100+ prices were just to high for the masses to run to, but at $20 or $30, maybe that's a point where more people would jump on board. I don't claim to have a crystal ball. It is all speculation. But I do try to evaluate my investment as I would in any other business and as it stands now, the long term viability of Bitcoin is shaky iMO, given it's lack of market penetration and it's pure speculative nature.
My words are not an attack on crypto or even Bitcoin. It's just an individual perspective from a small investor. I have continued to call out many of the short comings of Bitcoin for quite awhile now, and those have not changed. In fact, the more time that passes and the BTC community is still begging for Dropbox or some other non-major company to accept Bitcoins, while the publicly traded companies continue to snub Bitcoin, the less I believe in the viability of Bitcoin. Again, just my perspective and that's part of how I make my trading decisions. No one should take that personal. This is just business.
July 06, 2013, 10:36:49 PM
Quote
Worst case, $30. Best case, $64 then grind sideways for a bit before the next hype-mania cycle.
There is still a persistent belief in another hype-bubble....Might have to wait a LONG time before this train begins to leave the station again.
I personally guarantee another hypermegaultra-bubble immediately after we hit bottom. Me and the wink-twins will set the biggest bid floors that've ever been seen. Then we pump and pump and pump ... etc
July 06, 2013, 10:17:29 PM
I've been buying and selling the whole way down. My feeling is we will see the 50's but that may very will be the bottom of this thing. If we break though the amount of resistance in the 50's and hit the 40's, abandon all hope...Bitcoin is dead.
It is worrisome how easily we have gone down and with no real volume. If this keeps up I say we go way below 50. We need to have some capitulation volume when we reach the bottom, at least I would think (barring some great news of the like). Considering we are roughly at 70, have fallen pretty hard from 130 and 50 is not that far away, I really really wonder about the lack of volume. What happens when people really start selling? Look out below is my guess.
You're right and I think despite the fear that exists, there is still alot of hope out there. Bitcoin has rallied back to 90 or 100+ with ease at times, so it's understandable people are holding on to this belief, even though it's looking less and less likely.
I don't really agree we have fallen "real hard" from 130. We haven't seen 130 in a long time, so it's certainly been a process. Excluding that, I understand what you're saying. So what happens when people really start selling? I continue to believe in the general sentiment of the Bitcoin community over the last couple months and the view has been pretty much the same, "If we ever hit 50, I'm all in!" Tons of resistance in the 50 range and that doesn't account for the fiat on the sidelines waiting for that moment. This is why I say, if we break though 50, abandon all hope because the resistance in the 50 range will be the closest thing to a Bitcoiner unified front, there is. If it can't hold, what's left? At that point, you're absolutely right. Look out below.
It's true, there's no guarantee it will hold, that's why it's posted in the speculation forum. It's just the view I have chosen to deem most likely. There will be massive push back in the 50's. Bitcoin's death is also speculation but without speculators, there is no Bitcoin. It has no value or purchasing abilities. It failed to land a single major company accepting it as currency and thus, the only reason it continues to hold the illusion of value is from speculators. Once we break through 50, I think those left will all jump ship. Some faster than others but when you can't make money speculating on Bitcoin, there's no point in dealing in Bitcoin. The ideological beliefs that follow Bitcoin, don't really give it much monetary value all by themselves so dead to me and dead to you may mean two different things.
TL;DR If I can't make money on it, it's dead to me. However, ideological types may deem it alive simply because the blockchain still exists.
I have to say I sadly agree with some of your points regarding value, purchasing ability and market penetration. All these issues are showing a big fail in Bitcoin development over the last year, which I've been preaching about. The unregulated free for all anti-fiat currency of the future has merely become a financial platform for big fiat fishes. Most of the development has shifted towards that focus, ignoring usability and every day commerce.
I think, however, you're wrong in your conclusion. Even if what you say happens and 99% of the people leave when/if we go below 50, that's REBIRTH, not death. The people left will then be in charge of steering the project back on track, hopefully in the right direction this time, but it may even take several tries of this whole process. If Bitcoin goes into a slumber, there's a reason for it, and it needs to be corrected. The fundamental values of the original concept will always be valid and valuable, up until the day there is a stronger crypto-currency or alt-money to compete with fiat.
And that's the bottom line, the demand for Bitcoin (outside of speculation), is in reality the demand for an (unregulated) alternative for gov' controlled fiat. As long as there is no bigger player in this segment, Bitcoin cannot die.
July 06, 2013, 10:08:00 PM
Of course there is. I said wising up, not geniuses. 
But I don't see as much deniers.
But I don't see as much deniers.
July 06, 2013, 10:05:27 PM
Quote
Worst case, $30. Best case, $64 then grind sideways for a bit before the next hype-mania cycle.
There is still a persistent belief in another hype-bubble....Might have to wait a LONG time before this train begins to leave the station again.
July 06, 2013, 09:46:32 PM
Reddit is wising up:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1hroin/how_low_do_you_think_btc_is_gonna_go/
Which means that if you are planning on buying at around $50 or $30, you aren't alone anymore.
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1hroin/how_low_do_you_think_btc_is_gonna_go/
Quote
I think it'll go to around 50. I also see it going back down to the previous crash price of 30.
Quote
Worst case, $30. Best case, $64 then grind sideways for a bit before the next hype-mania cycle.
Quote
likely lower than 50, likely higher than 32
Quote
Step of dropping isn't big now, I think it would be 20-30 for example. It will raise when people will buy cheap BTC. It may be $5 for example 
Which means that if you are planning on buying at around $50 or $30, you aren't alone anymore.
July 06, 2013, 08:50:27 PM
Loads of fiat on the sideline and loads more coins for sale that are not on the order book, waiting nervously for that rally ... that may or may not come before their pain threshold is reached
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHM-z_rHz9M
lol
I think someone just blinked ...
July 06, 2013, 08:15:52 PM
I've been buying and selling the whole way down. My feeling is we will see the 50's but that may very will be the bottom of this thing. If we break though the amount of resistance in the 50's and hit the 40's, abandon all hope...Bitcoin is dead.
It is worrisome how easily we have gone down and with no real volume. If this keeps up I say we go way below 50. We need to have some capitulation volume when we reach the bottom, at least I would think (barring some great news of the like). Considering we are roughly at 70, have fallen pretty hard from 130 and 50 is not that far away, I really really wonder about the lack of volume. What happens when people really start selling? Look out below is my guess.
You're right and I think despite the fear that exists, there is still alot of hope out there. Bitcoin has rallied back to 90 or 100+ with ease at times, so it's understandable people are holding on to this belief, even though it's looking less and less likely.
I don't really agree we have fallen "real hard" from 130. We haven't seen 130 in a long time, so it's certainly been a process. Excluding that, I understand what you're saying. So what happens when people really start selling? I continue to believe in the general sentiment of the Bitcoin community over the last couple months and the view has been pretty much the same, "If we ever hit 50, I'm all in!" Tons of resistance in the 50 range and that doesn't account for the fiat on the sidelines waiting for that moment. This is why I say, if we break though 50, abandon all hope because the resistance in the 50 range will be the closest thing to a Bitcoiner unified front, there is. If it can't hold, what's left? At that point, you're absolutely right. Look out below.
It's true, there's no guarantee it will hold, that's why it's posted in the speculation forum. It's just the view I have chosen to deem most likely. There will be massive push back in the 50's. Bitcoin's death is also speculation but without speculators, there is no Bitcoin. It has no value or purchasing abilities. It failed to land a single major company accepting it as currency and thus, the only reason it continues to hold the illusion of value is from speculators. Once we break through 50, I think those left will all jump ship. Some faster than others but when you can't make money speculating on Bitcoin, there's no point in dealing in Bitcoin. The ideological beliefs that follow Bitcoin, don't really give it much monetary value all by themselves so dead to me and dead to you may mean two different things.
TL;DR If I can't make money on it, it's dead to me. However, ideological types may deem it alive simply because the blockchain still exists.
July 06, 2013, 08:07:05 PM
I've been buying and selling the whole way down. My feeling is we will see the 50's but that may very will be the bottom of this thing. If we break though the amount of resistance in the 50's and hit the 40's, abandon all hope...Bitcoin is dead.
It is worrisome how easily we have gone down and with no real volume. If this keeps up I say we go way below 50. We need to have some capitulation volume when we reach the bottom, at least I would think (barring some great news of the like). Considering we are roughly at 70, have fallen pretty hard from 130 and 50 is not that far away, I really really wonder about the lack of volume. What happens when people really start selling? Look out below is my guess.
You're right and I think despite the fear that exists, there is still alot of hope out there. Bitcoin has rallied back to 90 or 100+ with ease at times, so it's understandable people are holding on to this belief, even though it's looking less and less likely.
I don't really agree we have fallen "real hard" from 130. We haven't seen 130 in a long time, so it's certainly been a process. Excluding that, I understand what you're saying. So what happens when people really start selling? I continue to believe in the general sentiment of the Bitcoin community over the last couple months and the view has been pretty much the same, "If we ever hit 50, I'm all in!" Tons of resistance in the 50 range and that doesn't account for the fiat on the sidelines waiting for that moment. This is why I say, if we break though 50, abandon all hope because the resistance in the 50 range will be the closest thing to a Bitcoiner unified front, there is. If it can't hold, what's left? At that point, you're absolutely right. Look out below.
Jump to: