Loads of fiat on the sideline and loads more coins for sale that are not on the order book, waiting nervously for that rally ... that may or may not come before their pain threshold is reached
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHM-z_rHz9M
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32714. (Read 26469517 times)
July 06, 2013, 08:06:40 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JHM-z_rHz9M
July 06, 2013, 08:05:02 PM
You're right and I think despite the fear that exists, there is still alot of hope out there. Bitcoin has rallied back to 90 or 100+ with ease at times, so it's understandable people are holding on to this belief, even though it's looking less and less likely.
I don't really agree we have fallen "real hard" from 130. We haven't seen 130 in a long time, so it's certainly been a process. Excluding that, I understand what you're saying. So what happens when people really start selling? I continue to believe in the general sentiment of the Bitcoin community over the last couple months and the view has been pretty much the same, "If we ever hit 50, I'm all in!" Tons of resistance in the 50 range and that doesn't account for the fiat on the sidelines waiting for that moment. This is why I say, if we break though 50, abandon all hope because the resistance in the 50 range will be the closest thing to a Bitcoiner unified front, there is. If it can't hold, what's left? At that point, you're absolutely right. Look out below.
I don't really agree we have fallen "real hard" from 130. We haven't seen 130 in a long time, so it's certainly been a process. Excluding that, I understand what you're saying. So what happens when people really start selling? I continue to believe in the general sentiment of the Bitcoin community over the last couple months and the view has been pretty much the same, "If we ever hit 50, I'm all in!" Tons of resistance in the 50 range and that doesn't account for the fiat on the sidelines waiting for that moment. This is why I say, if we break though 50, abandon all hope because the resistance in the 50 range will be the closest thing to a Bitcoiner unified front, there is. If it can't hold, what's left? At that point, you're absolutely right. Look out below.
If 50 is broken then we go through the process that is called capitulation. People like you will think Bitcoin is dead and abandon all hope. But we will reach a bottom eventually, even though many here will keep saying that we haven't hit bottom yet and that it will get worse and worse. When price hit $2 in 2011 people still kept shouting that price would go to $1 and below, even by well respected and knowledgeable forum members. But it didn't, and the ones who bought throughout all the panic made huge amounts of profit in the end. Now I'm not saying that 50 will be broken and that we go through this entire process again, but there is a reasonable chance it will and it will not be the end of Bitcoin.
July 06, 2013, 08:00:58 PM
July 06, 2013, 07:37:06 PM
I've been buying and selling the whole way down. My feeling is we will see the 50's but that may very will be the bottom of this thing. If we break though the amount of resistance in the 50's and hit the 40's, abandon all hope...Bitcoin is dead.
It is worrisome how easily we have gone down and with no real volume. If this keeps up I say we go way below 50. We need to have some capitulation volume when we reach the bottom, at least I would think (barring some great news of the like). Considering we are roughly at 70, have fallen pretty hard from 130 and 50 is not that far away, I really really wonder about the lack of volume. What happens when people really start selling? Look out below is my guess.
You're right and I think despite the fear that exists, there is still alot of hope out there. Bitcoin has rallied back to 90 or 100+ with ease at times, so it's understandable people are holding on to this belief, even though it's looking less and less likely.
I don't really agree we have fallen "real hard" from 130. We haven't seen 130 in a long time, so it's certainly been a process. Excluding that, I understand what you're saying. So what happens when people really start selling? I continue to believe in the general sentiment of the Bitcoin community over the last couple months and the view has been pretty much the same, "If we ever hit 50, I'm all in!" Tons of resistance in the 50 range and that doesn't account for the fiat on the sidelines waiting for that moment. This is why I say, if we break though 50, abandon all hope because the resistance in the 50 range will be the closest thing to a Bitcoiner unified front, there is. If it can't hold, what's left? At that point, you're absolutely right. Look out below.
July 06, 2013, 07:00:54 PM
July 06, 2013, 06:28:11 PM
Volume sucks because every mini-rally/bounce has been killed very early on so bids are stacked hard in the 50s (26k to $60 and almost 92k to $50) and asks are stacked up with people trying to get out alive/ahead. The last time the market swung down hard and touched 79 from 165 it acted similarly, albeit the volume wasn't as bad, and only reversed when someone bought $20 points worth of coins from 80 to 100+ after the Chinese Communist Party's propaganda mouthpiece aired their little non-effectual segment on Bitcoin one fateful Saturday morning.
July 06, 2013, 06:02:36 PM
I've been buying and selling the whole way down. My feeling is we will see the 50's but that may very will be the bottom of this thing. If we break though the amount of resistance in the 50's and hit the 40's, abandon all hope...Bitcoin is dead.
It is worrisome how easily we have gone down and with no real volume. If this keeps up I say we go way below 50. We need to have some capitulation volume when we reach the bottom, at least I would think (barring some great news of the like). Considering we are roughly at 70, have fallen pretty hard from 130 and 50 is not that far away, I really really wonder about the lack of volume. What happens when people really start selling? Look out below is my guess.
July 06, 2013, 06:01:01 PM
July 06, 2013, 05:58:14 PM
Yeah ... that looks like a bullish formation to me ... NOT
I guess you covered your short then
I guess you covered your short then
Actually, I did close my short.
We dropped almost 40% without any major rebound.
Edit:
I bought back in at 65 (Bitstamp). 63-64 has been tested 3 times and has held. My guess is that the price will rally for a while now.
July 06, 2013, 05:51:06 PM
Yeah ... that looks like a bullish formation to me ... NOT
I guess you covered your short then
I guess you covered your short then
Actually, I did close my short.
We dropped almost 40% without any major rebound.
Edit:
July 06, 2013, 05:39:45 PM
Actually meant to post this here:
Just a reminder for what will inevitably happen again:
Smart money so clever! Smart money, trading against the trend.
Do you really want to be a part of this "smart money"?
Was the smart money buying or was it selling the bounces? You tell me.
Just a reminder for what will inevitably happen again:
How hard is it to believe that a good number of the whales are smart, savvy geeks like us who can see the incredible potential, but with just a fuck ton more cash? And they throw in a few % of their net worth to hold for the next few years... and everyone in the wall thread is like OH SHIT 10K BUY haha
Smart money so clever! Smart money, trading against the trend.
Was the smart money buying or was it selling the bounces? You tell me.
When you first showed this, I took the buys to be a failed attempt to shift the price back into an upwards trend (like previously)...is that what you meant?
July 06, 2013, 05:35:57 PM
I've been buying and selling the whole way down. My feeling is we will see the 50's but that may very will be the bottom of this thing. If we break though the amount of resistance in the 50's and hit the 40's, abandon all hope...Bitcoin is dead.
Why would you think 40 is dead when it's still outperformed 99% of other investments.
Something being a good investment yesterday, doesn't necessarily make it a good investment today.
I just think a mental break will happen, where people will go from thinking "I can buy cheap coins" to "I could be buying soon to be worthless coins". It's all about the mental. Of course, it would probably depend on how fast we broke through 50. If someone dumped 50k coins in one shot, all hell is going to break loose. If it took a month, maybe not so much.
July 06, 2013, 05:19:31 PM
I've been buying and selling the whole way down. My feeling is we will see the 50's but that may very will be the bottom of this thing. If we break though the amount of resistance in the 50's and hit the 40's, abandon all hope...Bitcoin is dead.
Why would you think 40 is dead when it's still outperformed 99% of other investments.
July 06, 2013, 05:18:08 PM
I've been buying and selling the whole way down. My feeling is we will see the 50's but that may very will be the bottom of this thing. If we break though the amount of resistance in the 50's and hit the 40's, abandon all hope...Bitcoin is dead.
Unless I choose to save it with massive quantities of USD.
What is the brake point where you want to "save" this economy?
Depends. I keep seeing more blood in streets. Waiting for most amount of blood. Hopefully there will be enough to sail a boat to da moon!
July 06, 2013, 05:14:19 PM
I've been buying and selling the whole way down. My feeling is we will see the 50's but that may very will be the bottom of this thing. If we break though the amount of resistance in the 50's and hit the 40's, abandon all hope...Bitcoin is dead.
Unless I choose to save it with massive quantities of USD.
What is the brake point where you want to "save" this economy?
July 06, 2013, 05:12:50 PM
I've been buying and selling the whole way down. My feeling is we will see the 50's but that may very will be the bottom of this thing. If we break though the amount of resistance in the 50's and hit the 40's, abandon all hope...Bitcoin is dead.
Unless I choose to save it with massive quantities of USD.
July 06, 2013, 05:01:37 PM
I've been buying and selling the whole way down. My feeling is we will see the 50's but that may very will be the bottom of this thing. If we break though the amount of resistance in the 50's and hit the 40's, abandon all hope...Bitcoin is dead.
July 06, 2013, 05:00:57 PM
July 06, 2013, 04:00:51 PM
July 06, 2013, 03:50:18 PM
Actually meant to post this here:
Just a reminder for what will inevitably happen again:
Smart money so clever! Smart money, trading against the trend.
Do you really want to be a part of this "smart money"?
Was the smart money buying or was it selling the bounces? You tell me.
Just a reminder for what will inevitably happen again:
How hard is it to believe that a good number of the whales are smart, savvy geeks like us who can see the incredible potential, but with just a fuck ton more cash? And they throw in a few % of their net worth to hold for the next few years... and everyone in the wall thread is like OH SHIT 10K BUY haha
Smart money so clever! Smart money, trading against the trend.
Was the smart money buying or was it selling the bounces? You tell me.
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