Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 32888. (Read 26634280 times)

Close...

Everybody thinks SD buyout -> 150k BTC being sent to stockholders... not true if the buyer already owned 90% of the outstanding stock.  Always a good plan to ensure the purchasing "premium" is a lot fewer actual BTC than calculated.

As for the "whys" of the sale, it was inevitable.  When you've got little, being involved in a quasi-legal enterprise (that does not violate your own ethical standards) is one thing.  But once you're looking at living a luxurious lifestyle without ever working again, the idea of cooling your heels in jail over an issue that could have gone either way starts looking pretty grim.  SD probably went on the block the moment the website was blocked to US customers.  

Better (for SD at least) that it be sold to an owner living in a jurisdiction where gambling is legal...

What is this? A chart for ants?

It's a market, it was an uncertain factor which didn't pan out.  Such is life.

If I were them and wanted fiat, it wouldn't be hard to say "#1, you sell Friday, #2, wait until it creeps up and sell, #3 follow suit".  Any three strong parties on any exchange can tip things quite favorably for one another, it is the biggest problem in BTC today that value is derived from exchanges which carry very little of the actual BTC in existence. 

If I want to use my WoW gold I have to stay in the WoW world, for BTC to hit any real usefulness outside of the BTC economy that story needs to change.  Hardware is an example, unless every last partner (down to delivery drivers) takes BTC, at some point fiat matters.  This is also a big problem for anyone using BTC.  Say I have a group order for which payment in the end needs to be in fiat.  I collect 200BTC, we're almost set, waiting for a few stragglers to come in with their transactions, suddenly price tanks 20%.  Well now we need 240BTC to cover the same fiat value.  This is *the* problem.

Here we are a full day after the SD coin release and still no big dump except for the pre-release panic sell, mostly in 2 chunks.

It seems the SD shareholders were not in as big a rush to buy fiat as some people so desperately hoped.

As I grind my coffee, I see the same low-volume hovering around 90 as this time yesterday.

Strange how prices actually started to creep up when the coin release started at noon UTC and dipped a little after it was done. So much for the Great Satoshi Dice BTC Selloff.

I guess they did throw a party and nobody came.

Good points. I do wonder about group 1 though. They now have the realization of the violence of the moves and probably a lot of them read the forums and we all see the amount of people yelling for $50 coins. And if they see the price starting to go down, I do wonder if they start to sell. The amount of coins they have is huge. Even a small percentage of them selling (which is reasonable) would affect the move down.

There are probably a lot of people who have been buying in through all of this and who have loose hands. If the price gets much lower than current prices, I don't doubt they sell.

Also, I think there are probably quite a few other scenarios that can take place but we'll see how this all ends up. Speculating is sort of fun.

I guess, for me, the idea is not to get greedy (Make use of my abilities and try to increase my position with moves in and out since my funds are very limited). As Rampion said, don't try to call the absolute bottom, but if you can pick up more coins even within 50% of it, that is beneficial. And if we buy higher then hopefully lesson learned (though I still have a cushion).

Those big buyers and sellers have certainly shown us this market can move violently and we should never lose sight of that.

IAS

I was thinking the bolded yesterday, after I heard the announcement. The big moves up were probably them buying shares. Though, that sounds really inefficient so doesn't make sense on another level.

I can't imagine some of those guys will not be selling their BTC's. Though I doubt we see an exodus and we probably already would have seen that...

Thanks for the prediction of a slow move down. Something I have to consider.

You sound so balanced...   did you buy in finally? I thought you were proudhon 2.0 

You're taking the proverbial right?

High price is good if it's actually WORTH the price. Price driven by speculation =/= healthy.

not true. high bitcoin price is vital for its health. In the end 100 satoshi (or 1 XBT) should be worth $1 if this experiment would be successful.

If everybody had both your mentalities, the price would inflate beyond recognition and the whole experiment would hyper-deflate into oblivion. Yes you would be rich. Congratulations at your profits. But the use of bitcoins for what it is designed for would be lost. If people were not willing to sell 10'000 bitcoins for two pizzas we would not be here today.

It's like trying to explain to people Martingale isn't a profitable strategy. They say they will win most of the time (which is true) but the associated loss that happens quite infrequently is so large that it outweighs all the small wins. If people don't get it I doubt they ever will. I'm holding

OK, let's run with your assertion.

There are three broad groups: First, holders who haven't sold yet... If they haven't sold at $65, they're unlikely to do it at $50, $32, or whatever the fashionable number is. If forum melodrama about capitulation were going to affect them, it would have happened already.

Then there are people who sold and are waiting for cheap coins. We can assume that most of these people sold well above $100 -- many passed the bag over at $160. These people would double their holdings by getting in between $65 and now. Provided they get in in time. Sure enough, that's where the recent volume came from.

The third group is speculators who will ride each wave in either direction. For the purposes of this thought experiment, they aren't very relevant.

The subset of people who sold much lower and later is likely smaller an less significant than the above groups.

I'm not going to say for sure that the bottom is in -- markets take time to turn -- but it shouldn't be surprising to anyone if it is. The absolute certainty with which bears bay for blood after we're already more than 70% off the peak valuation just magnifies their folly, and is very similar to bulls' behaviour near the peak. The volatility has already been sufficient  to redistribute coins appropriately.

Bear in mind also that all this is against a background of increasing investment in Bitcoin infrastructure and start ups. Overall the baseline non-speculative value is constantly increasing.

if this will happen. There is also 50% chance people will be hitting wall with their heads because they didn't bought and the price for some reason sky rocketed. There is plenty of reasons in the world to make it happen. And there are people who bought pizza for 10000 bitcoins and now are pretending that's ok for them ...

We have history as our guide. While it doesn't repeat perfectly, there are often similarities.

This is why observing charts is useful. We know with a reasonable probability that certain formations will lead to certain results.

Will you get it right every time? Of course not. To ignore patterns and probabilities and to claim that it is pure guess work is not a valid assertion though.

People selling their last bitcoin to get out of the 'scheme' screaming how much they have lost will be a good indicator.

That would be compatible with a long period of consolidation, typical with a post bubble correction scenario. If it is true, it will give bears a long time to pick their moment to buy.

In fact, until this blow off phase occurs, I suspect there will still be further for the price to fall.

of course they want to maximise profits but the problem i am pointing to is that nobody know when bear market will end. There is no chart who will tell you this. All i read here is just pure wishes.

Doesn't everyone want to maximise their wealth?

If you can buy at $50, rather than $100, you are going to have double the wealth/Bitcoins, no matter what the price ends up being.

That doesn't mean everyone has to buy/sell. You should do what feels best for you.