Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking &amp; discussion - page 33111. (Read 26465816 times)

Quote from: ElectricMucus on June 05, 2013, 08:26:38 AM

Something is wrong with that chart. I have seen many log charts (for example the one at bitcoincharts.com) but they all look different.

The first thing that's wrong about that chart is that it's pulled out of the OP's ass. He was drawing a line based on "Mmmm, right about there".

ok then.

Plotted using sigmaplot.

regression analysis in genstat stats package (version 12) minus bubble data.

bitcoin price (logged) = -0.0635+0.0013791*time

predicted price= $24.24

when I first saw this, I sold everything. edit: all bitcoins

Nice, so you actually didn't pull your prediction out of your ass, but used (polynomial) regression on historical data (not sure if it's wise to exclude bubble data/outliers, though). I respect that.

But do you want to know what is the single biggest assumption

Dude, you either don't know the math behind what you do, or you're willfully obstinate to make a point: if you run a simple regression analysis like you did, you de facto work from the assumption that there is one and only function underlying those data points. Otherwise, you "identified" jack shit.

I'm only showing that there's an extremely strong underlying trend outside of bubble data, which predicts a bitcoin price much lower than it is now. No need to get antsy

oda.krell

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Quote from: oda.krell on June 05, 2013, 08:20:09 AM

Nice, so you actually didn't pull your prediction out of your ass, but used (polynomial) regression on historical data (not sure if it's wise to exclude bubble data/outliers, though). I respect that.

But do you want to know what is the single biggest assumption you make in your analysis, an assumption that some (including me) would consider completely unfounded, and in fact completely unrealistic?

That there is a single underlying growth function that governed the price of btc over the entire course of the data you looked at, and will continue to govern it.

Sure, you're free to make this assumption. But with that assumption removed, your analysis falls apart.

So suddenly there is the call for scientific rigour, when the results do not match your expectations?
Awesome!

Oh and take a hint, the result wouldn't differ much if someone were to use the method you suggested.

You're funny when you try too hard: I didn't suggest any method. I simply formulated the assumption made in sarc's analysis.

And "the result wouldn't differ much"? You're kidding, I hope. Simply (yet unrealistically) assuming that, say, growth was determined by one function up to January 2013, and another one following January 2013, would probably put us into the 500? 5000? (can't be arsed to calculate this now) range right now.

Which is obviously not where we are. Hence: unrealistic assumption as well, as noted above.

oda.krell

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Quote from: sarc on June 05, 2013, 08:24:28 AM

Quote from: oda.krell on June 05, 2013, 08:20:09 AM

Quote from: oda.krell on June 05, 2013, 08:20:09 AM

Something is wrong with that chart. I have seen many log charts (for example the one at bitcoincharts.com) but they all look different.

The first thing that's wrong about that chart is that it's pulled out of the OP's ass. He was drawing a line based on "Mmmm, right about there".

ok then.

Plotted using sigmaplot.

regression analysis in genstat stats package (version 12) minus bubble data.

bitcoin price (logged) = -0.0635+0.0013791*time

predicted price= $24.24

when I first saw this, I sold everything. edit: all bitcoins

Nice, so you actually didn't pull your prediction out of your ass, but used (polynomial) regression on historical data (not sure if it's wise to exclude bubble data/outliers, though). I respect that.

But do you want to know what is the single biggest assumption you make in your analysis, an assumption that some (including me) would consider completely unfounded, and in fact completely unrealistic?

That there is a single underlying growth function that governed the price of btc over the entire course of the data you looked at, and will continue to govern it.

Sure, you're free to make this assumption. But with that assumption removed, your analysis falls apart.

thanks. But I didn't assume an underlying growth function, I used a linear regression to identify and measure it. Sure it can change post bubble, but will it?

Dude, you either don't know the math behind what you do, or you're willfully obstinate to make a point: if you run a simple regression analysis like you did, you de facto work from the assumption that there is one and only function underlying those data points. Otherwise, you "identified" jack shit.

ElectricMucus

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Marketing manager - GO MP

Nice, so you actually didn't pull your prediction out of your ass, but used (polynomial) regression on historical data (not sure if it's wise to exclude bubble data/outliers, though). I respect that.

But do you want to know what is the single biggest assumption you make in your analysis, an assumption that some (including me) would consider completely unfounded, and in fact completely unrealistic?

That there is a single underlying growth function that governed the price of btc over the entire course of the data you looked at, and will continue to govern it.

Sure, you're free to make this assumption. But with that assumption removed, your analysis falls apart.

So suddenly there is the call for scientific rigor, when the results do not match your expectations?
Awesome!

Oh and take a hint, the result wouldn't differ much if someone were to use the method you suggested.

sarc

member

Activity: 98

Merit: 10

Quote from: oda.krell on June 05, 2013, 08:20:09 AM

Something is wrong with that chart. I have seen many log charts (for example the one at bitcoincharts.com) but they all look different.

The first thing that's wrong about that chart is that it's pulled out of the OP's ass. He was drawing a line based on "Mmmm, right about there".

ok then.

Plotted using sigmaplot.

regression analysis in genstat stats package (version 12) minus bubble data.

bitcoin price (logged) = -0.0635+0.0013791*time

predicted price= $24.24

when I first saw this, I sold everything. edit: all bitcoins

Nice, so you actually didn't pull your prediction out of your ass, but used (polynomial) regression on historical data (not sure if it's wise to exclude bubble data/outliers, though). I respect that.

But do you want to know what is the single biggest assumption you make in your analysis, an assumption that some (including me) would consider completely unfounded, and in fact completely unrealistic?

That there is a single underlying growth function that governed the price of btc over the entire course of the data you looked at, and will continue to govern it.

Sure, you're free to make this assumption. But with that assumption removed, your analysis falls apart.

thanks. But I didn't assume an underlying growth function, I used a linear regression to identify and measure it. Sure it can change post bubble, but will it? With unbiased eyes, does it really look like the bubble is over?

oda.krell

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Activity: 1470

Merit: 1007

Quote from: barbs on June 05, 2013, 07:36:51 AM

Something is wrong with that chart. I have seen many log charts (for example the one at bitcoincharts.com) but they all look different.

The first thing that's wrong about that chart is that it's pulled out of the OP's ass. He was drawing a line based on "Mmmm, right about there".

ok then.

Plotted using sigmaplot.

regression analysis in genstat stats package (version 12) minus bubble data.

bitcoin price (logged) = -0.0635+0.0013791*time

predicted price= $24.24

when I first saw this, I sold everything. edit: all bitcoins

:)

Nice, so you actually didn't pull your prediction out of your ass, but used (polynomial) regression on historical data (not sure if it's wise to exclude bubble data/outliers, though). I respect that.

But do you want to know what is the single biggest assumption you make in your analysis, an assumption that some (including me) would consider completely unfounded, and in fact completely unrealistic?

That there is a single underlying growth function that governed the price of btc over the entire course of the data you looked at, and will continue to govern it.

Sure, you're free to make this assumption. But with that assumption removed, your analysis falls apart.

gizmoh

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Gox shitting a brick right now? Huh

No shit, where are all the panic sellers? 10 minutes lag and growing..

Our old goxxing always here Lips sealed

sarc

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Quote from: fluidjax on June 05, 2013, 07:29:16 AM

Quote from: sarc on June 05, 2013, 06:05:55 AM

Quote from: notme on June 05, 2013, 05:54:10 AM

Quote from: EuroTrash on June 05, 2013, 07:44:55 AM

Go on, crash, you know it makes sense...

But also consider what it means if it doesn't. This is also a possibility.

stagnation?

If this type of trend line meant anything... if we extrapolate from the year 2000 using this chart

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFTSE&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

the FTSE should be around 50,000.

so your point is that I'm wildly overestimating the price?

barbs

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I chucked a buy order for 120.12 @ 1 btc and it got filled.. either i got goxxed or someone else did..

Goxxed! who's got a gif

Dargumin

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The volume on gox is really low today. Around the 15-16,000 mark. Are we stable for the next few days then?

ChartBuddy

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1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

sarc

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Quote

ok then.

Plotted using sigmaplot.

regression analysis in genstat stats package (version 12) minus bubble data.

There lies the problem. You choose what is bubble data and whatnot.

it's not exactly a subtle change...

EuroTrash

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Activity: 728

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Quote

ok then.

Plotted using sigmaplot.

regression analysis in genstat stats package (version 12) minus bubble data.

There lies the problem. You choose what is bubble data and whatnot.

sarc

member

Activity: 98

Merit: 10

Something is wrong with that chart. I have seen many log charts (for example the one at bitcoincharts.com) but they all look different.

The first thing that's wrong about that chart is that it's pulled out of the OP's ass. He was drawing a line based on "Mmmm, right about there".

ok then.

Plotted using sigmaplot.

regression analysis in genstat stats package (version 12) minus bubble data.

bitcoin price (logged) = -0.0635+0.0013791*time

predicted price= $24.24

when I first saw this, I sold everything. edit: all bitcoins

barbs

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Gox shitting a brick right now? Huh

prof7bit

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https://youengine.io/

The first thing that's wrong about that chart is that it's pulled out of the OP's ass. He was drawing a line based on "Mmmm, right about there".

Its not only the line, its the entire curve, the proportions are completely wrong. compare with the log charts at bitcoincharts.com or *any* other log chart of bitcoin price I have ever seen anywhere.

San1ty

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Quote from: sarc on June 05, 2013, 06:05:55 AM

Something is wrong with that chart. I have seen many log charts (for example the one at bitcoincharts.com) but they all look different.

The first thing that's wrong about that chart is that it's pulled out of the OP's ass. He was drawing a line based on "Mmmm, right about there".

fluidjax

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Quote from: notme on June 05, 2013, 05:54:10 AM

Go on, crash, you know it makes sense...

But also consider what it means if it doesn't. This is also a possibility.

stagnation?

If this type of trend line meant anything... if we extrapolate from the year 2000 using this chart

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=%5EFTSE&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=

the FTSE should be around 50,000.

prof7bit

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Activity: 938

Merit: 500

https://youengine.io/

Quote from: notme on June 05, 2013, 05:54:10 AM

Something is wrong with that chart. I have seen many log charts (for example the one at bitcoincharts.com) but they all look different.

sarc

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Activity: 98

Merit: 10