Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33147.

ThatDGuy

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Quote from: bito on June 13, 2013, 02:02:53 PM

I"ve only been around watching the BTC for the last 3 months, and one thing that stands out when zooming out to the full picture volumes where much higher when BTC was valued lower (and when there were less BTC minted). Now it takes less BTC from whales now to "move" the market. So maybe this is because there are more BTC in the market. Is that a good theory?

EDIT: My theory is probably wrong, but it's an interesting observation, and it would be good to see a chart that takes into account the available BTC participating in volume for such charts

It's important to remember the value required to create volume in Bitcoin exchanges.

If Bitcoin is valued at $10, then $100 can move 10BTC, but if Bitcoin is valued at $100, then $100 will only move 1BTC.

On Bitcoincharts.com, at least, if you view all data, click the checkbox on the right to show "Volume in Currency"

That will illustrate the difference.

bito

newbie

Activity: 57

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Quote from: sarc on June 13, 2013, 01:50:14 PM

Quote from: bito on June 13, 2013, 01:48:32 PM

Quote from: sarc on June 13, 2013, 08:27:49 AM

Quote from: TheKoziTwo on June 13, 2013, 08:10:00 AM

Quote from: lucas.sev on June 13, 2013, 08:04:30 AM

Quote from: Rampion on June 13, 2013, 08:00:41 AM

Quote from: wachtwoord on June 13, 2013, 07:57:50 AM

Quote from: Rampion on June 13, 2013, 07:54:39 AM

In other news: guys, time to sell. Really.

What? Has it reached $300k/mBTC already?

Almost - anyhow, I'm just trolling. You guys know i'm a long term perma-bull Wink

Is there anyone who is not?

Those who held 100% fiat and waited for the price to drop to $2 one more time, back in 2011. Ooops Wink

Interesting difference with 2011, trading levels remained at new highs (ish) all the way down ( line = price, points = volume):

https://i.imgur.com/qa5eq4K.gif

But this time, fewer and fewer people are interested post-peak of the bubble, perhaps because most folk know what's coming and don't support the price :

https://i.imgur.com/jM1Ks5y.gif

I'd be interested in seeing a plot of those two graphs with the right volume axis being in terms of the percentage of total minted BTC for values on the X axis.

come again?

I"ve only been around watching the BTC for the last 3 months, and one thing that stands out when zooming out to the full picture volumes where much higher when BTC was valued lower (and when there were less BTC minted). Now it takes less BTC from whales now to "move" the market. So maybe this is because there are more BTC in the market. Is that a good theory?

EDIT: My theory is probably wrong, but it's an interesting observation, and it would be good to see a chart that takes into account the available BTC participating in volume for such charts

EDIT2: Maybe it's a price weighted volume that I think would be more insightful.

ChartBuddy

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dexX7

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Quote from: rezurect on June 13, 2013, 01:20:30 PM

Logic dictates that it is an experiment which has already been done, in house by financial institutions. A public study? google fu to the rescue.

Herd behavior in trading. http://smu.edu.sg/perspectives/2012/06/26/herd-behaviour-financial-markets-do-traders-follow-crowd-or-do-their-own-thing#.UboO1eeBlFs

I'm sure there is information out there. Thanks for the resource.

sarc

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Quote from: bito on June 13, 2013, 01:48:32 PM

Quote from: sarc on June 13, 2013, 08:27:49 AM

Quote from: TheKoziTwo on June 13, 2013, 08:10:00 AM

Quote from: lucas.sev on June 13, 2013, 08:04:30 AM

Quote from: Rampion on June 13, 2013, 08:00:41 AM

Quote from: wachtwoord on June 13, 2013, 07:57:50 AM

Quote from: Rampion on June 13, 2013, 07:54:39 AM

In other news: guys, time to sell. Really.

What? Has it reached $300k/mBTC already?

Almost - anyhow, I'm just trolling. You guys know i'm a long term perma-bull Wink

Is there anyone who is not?

Those who held 100% fiat and waited for the price to drop to $2 one more time, back in 2011. Ooops Wink

Interesting difference with 2011, trading levels remained at new highs (ish) all the way down ( line = price, points = volume):

But this time, fewer and fewer people are interested post-peak of the bubble, perhaps because most folk know what's coming and don't support the price :

I'd be interested in seeing a plot of those two graphs with the right volume axis being in terms of the percentage of total minted BTC for values on the X axis.

come again?

bito

newbie

Activity: 57

Merit: 0

Quote from: sarc on June 13, 2013, 08:27:49 AM

Quote from: TheKoziTwo on June 13, 2013, 08:10:00 AM

Quote from: lucas.sev on June 13, 2013, 08:04:30 AM

Quote from: Rampion on June 13, 2013, 08:00:41 AM

Quote from: wachtwoord on June 13, 2013, 07:57:50 AM

Quote from: Rampion on June 13, 2013, 07:54:39 AM

In other news: guys, time to sell. Really.

What? Has it reached $300k/mBTC already?

Almost - anyhow, I'm just trolling. You guys know i'm a long term perma-bull Wink

Is there anyone who is not?

Those who held 100% fiat and waited for the price to drop to $2 one more time, back in 2011. Ooops Wink

Interesting difference with 2011, trading levels remained at new highs (ish) all the way down ( line = price, points = volume):

https://i.imgur.com/qa5eq4K.gif

But this time, fewer and fewer people are interested post-peak of the bubble, perhaps because most folk know what's coming and don't support the price :

https://i.imgur.com/jM1Ks5y.gif

I'd be interested in seeing a plot of those two graphs with the right volume axis being in terms of the percentage of total minted BTC for values on the X axis.

EDIT: And also with the left and right axis normalised on each chart

Its About Sharing

legendary

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Antifragile

Quote from: dexX7 on June 13, 2013, 01:10:30 PM

There were times, where there price diff between Bitstamp and Gox was around 5 $ over a longer timeframe, happened in both directions. And I remember a time, where BTC-E was about 10 $ cheaper. But nevertheless, the price movement was about the same. I think Gox leads, but I've never seen anything crazy where Gox could have followed, but didn't.

What really impresses me are larger sells and buys, where it seems it directs to one single person. For example the huge buy on sunday which happened on Gox, but Bitstamp instantly followed, which either implies the big guy is active on both exchanges or many smaller buyer followed that one buy. I guess, I can only speculate about what really happens. Wink

A nice experiment would be to seperate two or more groups of (many) traders, give them the same data to start and see, if they would behave in the same way, but without knowing how the other group does. Both outcomes (they end up with the same result and or not) would tell much about the markets and trading altogether.

Any trader is probably looking at both exchanges. I would imagine if one had a decent position on Bitstamp and saw a sell off on Gox, that they might unload before others do.
Sort of a self fulfilling prophecy as well as just being a copy cat, for lack of a better word. ehehhe

rezurect

sr. member

Activity: 686

Merit: 250

Quote from: dexX7 on June 13, 2013, 01:10:30 PM

A nice experiment would be to seperate two or more groups of (many) traders, give them the same data to start and see, if they would behave in the same way, but without knowing how the other group does. Both outcomes (they end up with the same result and or not) would tell much about the markets and trading altogether.

Logic dictates that it is an experiment which has already been done, in house by financial institutions. A public study? google fu to the rescue.

Herd behavior in trading. http://smu.edu.sg/perspectives/2012/06/26/herd-behaviour-financial-markets-do-traders-follow-crowd-or-do-their-own-thing#.UboO1eeBlFs

But for some inexpiable reason i believe, Pro traders and Bitcoiners differ fundamentally.

dexX7

legendary

Activity: 1106

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There were times, where there price diff between Bitstamp and Gox was around 5 $ over a longer timeframe, happened in both directions. And I remember a time, where BTC-E was about 10 $ cheaper. But nevertheless, the price movement was about the same. I think Gox leads, but I've never seen anything crazy where Gox could have followed, but didn't.

What really impresses me are larger sells and buys, where it seems it directs to one single person. For example the huge buy on sunday which happened on Gox, but Bitstamp instantly followed, which either implies the big guy is active on both exchanges or many smaller buyer followed that one buy. I guess, I can only speculate about what really happens. Wink

A nice experiment would be to seperate two or more groups of (many) traders, give them the same data to start and see, if they would behave in the same way, but without knowing how the other group does. Both outcomes (they end up with the same result and or not) would tell much about the markets and trading altogether.

ChartBuddy

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Richy_T

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Quote from: Its About Sharing on June 13, 2013, 12:00:51 PM

In the grand scheme, Consider we have 3 or 4 exchanges sharing the trading evenly. What happens when only one exchange gets hit hard with a sell for example and drops the price?
Do others follow, are they unaffected, does the original exchange adjust back up, etc?

It should even out over time in ways which will depend on availability of funds. Some people will be able to move funds between exchanges and make profits that way.

Its About Sharing

legendary

Activity: 1442

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Antifragile

Quote from: Miz4r on June 13, 2013, 12:03:27 PM

That wall at 108 looks like manipulation to me. If a person with that many coins really wanted to sell on Bitstamp he would do so by smaller amounts over a period of time. By putting a massive wall there you just scare people away.

Yes, clearly (you would think). I was just mentioning that in a thread I started on a video of manipulation. https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/bitcoin-price-manipulation-video-232962

Miz4r

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That wall at 108 looks like manipulation to me. If a person with that many coins really wanted to sell on Bitstamp he would do so by smaller amounts over a period of time. By putting a massive wall there you just scare people away.

Its About Sharing

legendary

Activity: 1442

Merit: 1000

Antifragile

Quote from: dexX7 on June 13, 2013, 11:23:44 AM

Bitstamp in trouble.

I noticed that mini wall there before and didn't think it looked good. Since then the price came down over a buck.

In the grand scheme, Consider we have 3 or 4 exchanges sharing the trading evenly. What happens when only one exchange gets hit hard with a sell for example and drops the price?
Do others follow, are they unaffected, does the original exchange adjust back up, etc?

With all the volume on Gox, it is sort of leading the pack in a variety of ways (psychological influence, price, etc.)

edit - That wall is closer to 700 coins.

ChartBuddy

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