Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33185.

strawbs

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Quote from: crumbs on June 11, 2013, 07:54:36 AM

Isn't that gambling, defined? Some day traders do more than simply watch the price & ignore past performance etc.

Yes, it is really. Day trading is very much gambling, it tends not to rely on past performance (given the short period of involvement) which is likely only to be relevant over a longer period of time.

Bitcoinpro

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Quote from: strawbs on June 11, 2013, 07:21:19 AM

Quote from: Its About Sharing on June 11, 2013, 06:51:00 AM

Appreciated post and welcome. I tend to agree with most that you said. In particular we have to be careful with TA and BTC, in can turn on a dime for no reason.
Can't comment on Jaroslaw. I have never ignored a poster as I think there is occasionally truth in the false, so I don't like to filter information. Though, at times, it certainly gets tough ;-)

I'm guessing it's because most traders (including well backed ones) are spooked by the fact that this is entirely unregulated. If Mt.Gox gets taken down, who do they raise a law suit against to try to get their cash back? This prevents most traditional traders from getting into it.

I considered it to be a HUGE risk to deposit c.£30k (c. USD$50k) into a Japanese bank account with zero chance of recourse should they decide to make a run for it or be brought down by the Feds.

I decided to grow some balls and go for it. Either I have bigger balls than most traditional traders or I'm more reckless. Time will tell, I suppose....

EDIT - sorry, that was meant to be a response to "stereotype". Spot the newb forum user!

its not reckless though the bigger the size of the investment/wealth transfer the more research that should go into it

crumbs

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Quote from: strawbs on June 11, 2013, 07:41:52 AM

Quote from: sarc on June 11, 2013, 07:35:05 AM

Presumably you bought in when the price went up. Even if you didn't plot it, you saw a price trajectory heading upwards and extrapolated it into the future.

No, not at all. I bought in with no idea which way it would go, with the intention of watching it very closely (almost to the exclusion of anything else), ready to cut my losses if the prices dropped more than 20% after I had bought in, and to either sell or hold if the price were to rise. That's day trading, or short term trading, defined.

Isn't that gambling, defined? Some day traders do more than simply watch the price & ignore past performance etc.

strawbs

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Quote from: sarc on June 11, 2013, 07:46:01 AM

If that's true, and I'm a bit skeptical, then you're one a very few joining the speculative bubble that didn't think that way. And the price kept going up the way the chart said it would....for a while.

Well yes, that's a possibility, I may be in the minority in my approach I suppose (but I don't think so). Of course I had a suspicion that the price would rise (otherwise why would I buy in?). My point is that lines on charts generally only serve to give reassurance to the drawer of the line that their current theory is the correct side of the 50/50.

Anyway, this is speculation so we're not all going to agree. If we did all agree, there'd be nothing to buy in to

Peace right back at you.

sarc

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Quote from: strawbs on June 11, 2013, 07:41:52 AM

Quote from: sarc on June 11, 2013, 07:35:05 AM

Presumably you bought in when the price went up. Even if you didn't plot it, you saw a price trajectory heading upwards and extrapolated it into the future.

No, not at all. I bought in with no idea which way it would go, with the intention of watching it very closely (almost to the exclusion of anything else), ready to cut my losses if the prices dropped more than 20% after I had bought in, and to either sell or hold if the price were to rise. That's day trading, or short term trading, defined.

If that's true, and I'm a bit skeptical, then you're one of a very few joining the speculative bubble that didn't think that way. And the price kept going up the way the chart said it would....for a while. But anyway, peace.

strawbs

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Quote from: sarc on June 11, 2013, 07:35:05 AM

Presumably you bought in when the price went up. Even if you didn't plot it, you saw a price trajectory heading upwards and extrapolated it into the future.

No, not at all. I bought in with no idea which way it would go, with the intention of watching it very closely (almost to the exclusion of anything else), ready to cut my losses if the prices dropped more than 20% after I had bought in, and to either sell or hold if the price were to rise. That's day trading, or short term trading, defined.

crumbs

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Quote from: strawbs on June 11, 2013, 07:30:51 AM

Quote from: sarc on June 11, 2013, 07:28:07 AM

This doesn't seem a very sensible thing to say. But nice to meet you.

Fair enough, but why do you think it isn't sensible?

Are you saying that TA is less capable of interpreting a market driven by price manipulation? Should this be self-evident?

sarc

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Quote from: strawbs on June 11, 2013, 07:30:51 AM

Quote from: sarc on June 11, 2013, 07:28:07 AM

This doesn't seem a very sensible thing to say. But nice to meet you.

Fair enough, but why do you think it isn't sensible?

Presumably you bought in when the price went up. Even if you didn't plot it, you saw a price trajectory heading upwards and extrapolated it into the future.

strawbs

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Quote from: sarc on June 11, 2013, 07:28:07 AM

This doesn't seem a very sensible thing to say. But nice to meet you.

Fair enough, but why do you think it isn't sensible?

sarc

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Quote from: strawbs on June 11, 2013, 06:34:00 AM

* bitcoin can be compared to neither commodities nor fiat currency at this stage. It doesn't have the trading volume to be considered a currency (you can't get in and out quickly and you can't use leverage) and it doesn't have a substantial supply/demand market, nor a real 'use' (yet) to be considered comparable to a commodity
* as such, drawing any kind of line on a chart is utterly pointless, since the usual 'rules' (which are dubious in any case) certainly won't apply here. Even more so considering that past history (pre-April, say) did not include many traders such as myself. Now it does, so previous trends can be ignored since we now have a lot of price manipulation going on
* price movements are currently being caused entirely by speculation (or 99% at least)
* steady, sustainable price growth will only occur with a much higher volume of trades and with mass adoption
* the volatility of the price is what has attracted day/short term traders
* the illiquidity of the market is what has caused fiat to leave in recent weeks (this was my reason, it became too difficult to capitalise on price fluctuations unless they were arounf 5% due to lack of bid volume)

This doesn't seem a very sensible thing to say. But nice to meet you.

KS

sr. member

Activity: 448

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Quote from: lucas.sev on June 11, 2013, 07:22:05 AM

Quote from: strawbs on June 11, 2013, 07:21:19 AM

Quote from: Its About Sharing on June 11, 2013, 06:51:00 AM

Appreciated post and welcome. I tend to agree with most that you said. In particular we have to be careful with TA and BTC, in can turn on a dime for no reason.
Can't comment on Jaroslaw. I have never ignored a poster as I think there is occasionally truth in the false, so I don't like to filter information. Though, at times, it certainly gets tough ;-)

I'm guessing it's because most traders (including well backed ones) are spooked by the fact that this is entirely unregulated. If Mt.Gox gets taken down, who do they raise a law suit against to try to get their cash back? This prevents most traditional traders from getting into it.

I considered it to be a HUGE risk to deposit c.£30k (c. USD$50k) into a Japanese bank account with zero chance of recourse should they decide to make a run for it or be brought down by the Feds.

I decided to grow some balls and go for it. Either I have bigger balls than most traditional traders or I'm more reckless. Time will tell, I suppose....

I switched to USD because GBP had crazy spreads in late April.

USD is the main currency, better liquidity. Other fiat might give some arb possibilities though (as well as using other exchanges - I kind of like Bitstamp too - great exchange rate).

KS

sr. member

Activity: 448

Merit: 250

Quote from: strawbs on June 11, 2013, 07:19:36 AM

Quote from: KS on June 11, 2013, 07:06:13 AM

@strawbs:

Welcome mate

Any specific reason you're trading in GBP? (possibly other than it's what you started with)

Cheers mate. Just because I transfered cash from a UK bank account. Mt Gox seem to charge an additional 2.5% if you want to change currency. I'm regetting that a bit, but I believe (maybe incorrectly) that the global market is available regardless of currency.

I think the 2.5% is because they can't exchange the fiat directly and need to go through their bank (legally, not technically), so it's simply to discourage the practice (higher costs, more work for them) but it was argued they're just greedy.

I think it's probably a bit of both

lucas.sev

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Quote from: strawbs on June 11, 2013, 07:21:19 AM

Quote from: Its About Sharing on June 11, 2013, 06:51:00 AM

Appreciated post and welcome. I tend to agree with most that you said. In particular we have to be careful with TA and BTC, in can turn on a dime for no reason.
Can't comment on Jaroslaw. I have never ignored a poster as I think there is occasionally truth in the false, so I don't like to filter information. Though, at times, it certainly gets tough ;-)

I'm guessing it's because most traders (including well backed ones) are spooked by the fact that this is entirely unregulated. If Mt.Gox gets taken down, who do they raise a law suit against to try to get their cash back? This prevents most traditional traders from getting into it.

I considered it to be a HUGE risk to deposit c.£30k (c. USD$50k) into a Japanese bank account with zero chance of recourse should they decide to make a run for it or be brought down by the Feds.

I decided to grow some balls and go for it. Either I have bigger balls than most traditional traders or I'm more reckless. Time will tell, I suppose....

I switched to USD because GBP had crazy spreads in late April.

strawbs

legendary

Activity: 868

Merit: 1340

Quote from: Its About Sharing on June 11, 2013, 06:51:00 AM

Appreciated post and welcome. I tend to agree with most that you said. In particular we have to be careful with TA and BTC, in can turn on a dime for no reason.
Can't comment on Jaroslaw. I have never ignored a poster as I think there is occasionally truth in the false, so I don't like to filter information. Though, at times, it certainly gets tough ;-)

I'm guessing it's because most traders (including well backed ones) are spooked by the fact that this is entirely unregulated. If Mt.Gox gets taken down, who do they raise a law suit against to try to get their cash back? This prevents most traditional traders from getting into it.

I considered it to be a HUGE risk to deposit c.£30k (c. USD$50k) into a Japanese bank account with zero chance of recourse should they decide to make a run for it or be brought down by the Feds.

I decided to grow some balls and go for it. Either I have bigger balls than most traditional traders or I'm more reckless. Time will tell, I suppose....

EDIT - sorry, that was meant to be a response to "stereotype". Spot the newb forum user!

strawbs

legendary

Activity: 868

Merit: 1340

Quote from: KS on June 11, 2013, 07:06:13 AM

@strawbs:

Welcome mate

Any specific reason you're trading in GBP? (possibly other than it's what you started with)

Cheers mate. Just because I transfered cash from a UK bank account. Mt Gox seem to charge an additional 2.5% if you want to change currency. I'm regetting that a bit, but I believe (maybe incorrectly) that the global market is available regardless of currency.

crumbs

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Embrace Fudd

KS

sr. member

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Quote from: ?? on ??

So basically sideways trading for the past 8 hours or so. Still haven't gotten confirmation of pattern I am looking at, but it seems to be going in the right direction. I'll give it another 24 hours, that's plenty of time for it to confirm.

Sellers market but no buyers. Fasten your seatbelt.

(that makes TOTAL sense!

)

molecular

donator

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Quote from: rpietila on June 11, 2013, 05:35:02 AM

We are in the "early/pricing" stage of an exponentially growing (later: S-growing) phenomenon. If everything goes as it has done in several bubbles before, the great bubble will form when 1-2% of the population had adopted the technology. For Bitcoin, this means about 50 million adapters that actually use bitcoin for something. This "something" has so far been lagging, though.

I withdrew my prediction for $300 for 2013, but this does not mean that I was sure it will not happen. In 2014 it will happen for sure. Or some 1.5-sigma event happens.

The great moves have been able to push the price up roughly by an order of magnitude. We need 4 such moves and the rest of this year is not long enough time. April-June 2014 is now my target.

Current price I would just buy as much as I can.

Are you expecting at least one 10-fold move this year, though?

KS

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Activity: 448

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@strawbs:

Welcome mate

Any specific reason you're trading in GBP? (possibly other than it's what you started with)

IG0BR0KE

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Quote from: strawbs on June 11, 2013, 06:34:00 AM

And a final thing - should I make Jaroslaw my first ignoree?!

already 10 post and you did not ignored Jaroslaw yet? cmon Grin

welcome

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33185. (Read 26497179 times)