Just thought I would introduce myself, since I haven't been on this forum very long, although I have been reading it for the last several thousand posts.
I'm in Australia (but not Australian), I heard about bitcoins through traditional media back in April. It sparked my interest but I was too busy to be able to allocate any significant time to investigating further. I speculatively bought in at the beginning of May when price was £60 (sorry, I trade in GBP), having just missed £50. Watched price go up to £87 at the end of May, didn't sell (regretfully) and then watched it drop to £70, at which point I cashed out. Made a tidy profit (almost entirely by luck) but not as much as it could have been, but that's trading for you.
I'm a trader by day job (commodities, FOREX) and so I was very interested to see what was happening with bitcoin. Some observations that I thought I'd share with you, primarily to give you an insight into the perspective of a non-mining, non-IT guy with little knowledge of bitcoin but extensive knowledge of traditional markets (and these are the probbaly the same type of guys who are currently manipulating the bitcoin value):
* bitcoin can be compared to neither commodities nor fiat currency at this stage. It doesn't have the trading volume to be considered a currency (you can't get in and out quickly and you can't use leverage) and it doesn't have a substantial supply/demand market, nor a real 'use' (yet) to be considered comparable to a commodity
* as such, drawing any kind of line on a chart is utterly pointless, since the usual 'rules' (which are dubious in any case) certainly won't apply here. Even more so considering that past history (pre-April, say) did not include many traders such as myself. Now it does, so previous trends can be ignored since we now have a lot of price manipulation going on
* price movements are currently being caused entirely by speculation (or 99% at least)
* steady, sustainable price growth will only occur with a much higher volume of trades and with mass adoption
* the volatility of the price is what has attracted day/short term traders
* the illiquidity of the market is what has caused fiat to leave in recent weeks (this was my reason, it became too difficult to capitalise on price fluctuations unless they were arounf 5% due to lack of bid volume)
So, my conclusion (as unhelpful as it is) is that nobody can predict the price of bitcoin since it does not follow any traditional rules. As such, you can dive in and then jump out again, over a period of time, with a 50/50 chance of making a gain. Unless you have a very large holding through which you can temporarily manipulate the price.
I'm currently 100% fiat again, looking for a suitable price to buy back in (very speculatively, I'm looking at something around USD52, since I think USD50 will be a psychological trigger with mass-buy in, that will see the beginning of a steady, sustainable, non-bubbled climb)
Having said all this, the more I learn about bitcoin, the more I think that it has fantastic potential. However, you simply can't allow emotion to influence your position. Anyone who is trading based on the "bitcoin ideology" is, frankly, exceptionally foolish. Holding some bitcoins that you can afford to lose, in the hope that a bitcoin will be worth $1k in a few years, is fine. Holding some bitcoins that you can't afford to lose, in the hope that a bitcoin will be worth $1k in a few years, is absurd.
I appreciate that posters get shot down for all sorts of reasons here but I'm just sharing with you what I believe, based on my experience of traditional trading. I don't know anything about mining, bitcoin history or the current or future impact of Silk Road, and as a trader nor am I really that interested. Hope it helps and more than happy to discuss further.
And a final thing - should I make Jaroslaw my first ignoree?!
Appreciated post and welcome. I tend to agree with most that you said. In particular we have to be careful with TA and BTC, in can turn on a dime for no reason.
Can't comment on Jaroslaw. I have never ignored a poster as I think there is occasionally truth in the false, so I don't like to filter information. Though, at times, it certainly gets tough ;-)