Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33235.

old_engineer

sr. member

Activity: 387

Merit: 250

Quote from: Traktion on June 21, 2013, 03:42:47 AM

Look at that same chart, zoomed out.

To get as many bids as asks at 108, you have go right down to 80! Shocked

Not only that, but there's $570000 in leveraged long positions on bitfinex according to https://www.bitfinex.com/pages/stats , which is about the same as the order book at Bitstamp!

If my math is right, a long position taken at $105 at 2.5:1 leverage and 90% reserve would get liquidated at $75. Since there's only 3100 btc to $75, someone could sell 3100 btc down to $75, then likely catch the subsequent liquidations to regain their bitcoin holdings at a lower price. Hmm. Perhaps that's what the eager bitstamp seller was trying to do when they dropped the price to $90? Or perhaps there was an eager seller to $95, and the rest was the liquidation of a bitfinex user that took a long position at $120+? Big liquidations like that used to happen all the time when Bitcoinica allowed 10:1 leverage.

klee

legendary

Activity: 1498

Merit: 1000

Drop in MtGox started!

ChartBuddy

legendary

Activity: 2380

Merit: 1823

1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

Its About Sharing

legendary

Activity: 1442

Merit: 1000

Antifragile

Quote from: Traktion on June 21, 2013, 03:42:47 AM

Quote from: Its About Sharing on June 21, 2013, 02:53:57 AM

Wow, this is interesting. Looks like MtGox is really learning how to F themselves (not to mention a lot of their customers).
Looks like Gox is going to lose a lot more market share after this one, rightfully so and good for us.
I'm gonna sit this one out until things clarify themselves. Did I get my shooting star? Wink

Predictions from this fellas?

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/markets/bitstampUSD.html

Look at that same chart, zoomed out.

To get as many bids as asks at 108, you have go right down to 80! Shocked

Ranging from 90-100 looks easily possible. Less than 90 doesn't look off the table either.

I currently have speculative orders in at 91 and 81, while I monitor the action from a distance.

Ahhh, I didn't realize there was a fuller chart available - Thx.

Be really really careful with your placements. You might very well make a profit but if the volume there is so low that it will slice through and won't bounce off the bottom till it hits resistance (which may be at $60 - $70). Looking at the chart last weekend I came up with these key support levels: $90, $82, $60, low $50's and possibly 20's. Nothing really new with my numbers but I did verify some of the patterns with the past bubble correction.

Traktion

full member

Activity: 168

Merit: 100

Quote from: Its About Sharing on June 21, 2013, 02:53:57 AM

Wow, this is interesting. Looks like MtGox is really learning how to F themselves (not to mention a lot of their customers).
Looks like Gox is going to lose a lot more market share after this one, rightfully so and good for us.
I'm gonna sit this one out until things clarify themselves. Did I get my shooting star? Wink

Predictions from this fellas?

http://www.bitcoincharts.com/markets/bitstampUSD.html

Look at that same chart, zoomed out.

To get as many bids as asks at 108, you have go right down to 80! Shocked

Ranging from 90-100 looks easily possible. Less than 90 doesn't look off the table either.

I currently have speculative orders in at 91 and 81, while I monitor the action from a distance.

dave111223

legendary

Activity: 1190

Merit: 1001

Quote from: Voodah on June 21, 2013, 03:05:09 AM

CampBX is now on par with Bitstamp.

Only Btc-e remains higher...

Is it more difficult to get wires out of BTc-e?

I notice that on their USD wire section is says:

Quote

International withdrawals will be charged with 1.5% fee, minimum fee is $150

Is this $150 a typo or what?

Its About Sharing

legendary

Activity: 1442

Merit: 1000

Antifragile

Quote from: Voodah on June 21, 2013, 03:05:09 AM

CampBX is now on par with Bitstamp.

Only Btc-e remains higher...

BTC.de is at $112 (The Germans are very resistant ;-)

Its About Sharing

legendary

Activity: 1442

Merit: 1000

Antifragile

Quote from: Voodah on June 21, 2013, 03:05:09 AM

CampBX is now on par with Bitstamp.

Only Btc-e remains higher...

What the heck is going to happen once people can withdraw their money from Gox?

If you can sell higher and move the money out, many will do that. Wait 13 days? 10 days? 5 days?

Which larger seller is gonna blink first on Gox?

Voodah

sr. member

Activity: 266

Merit: 250

CampBX is now on par with Bitstamp.

Only Btc-e remains higher...

dave111223

legendary

Activity: 1190

Merit: 1001

Quote from: darklight on June 21, 2013, 02:59:28 AM

Quote from: nmersulypnem on June 21, 2013, 02:43:55 AM

Quote from: darklight on June 21, 2013, 02:28:32 AM

Quote from: SGExodus on June 21, 2013, 02:24:43 AM

Can still easily sell 20k coins at mtgox and still keep price above $100 on mtgox and 50k coins while still keeping price above $90. Can't say the same for other exchanges.

Yes sure, but theres a chance their 20k BTC worth of dollars might disappear overnight. At the best it will sit in gox's account with no easy way to get it out

"a chance". A 1 in 20 chance, for example, would imply a 5% risk premium.

And if you had for example 5k BTC to dump, would you really take the 1 in 20 chance that your half a million might go down the toilet?

A manipulator won't do it because by their nature they like to be in control, and in this situation they aren't. Someone in this to invest won't do it because the risk is too high and they don't like pissing money away.

The spread between exchanges put it's more like 1 in 10

ChartBuddy

legendary

Activity: 2380

Merit: 1823

1CBuddyxy4FerT3hzMmi1Jz48ESzRw1ZzZ

darklight

member

Activity: 88

Merit: 10

Quote from: nmersulypnem on June 21, 2013, 02:43:55 AM

Quote from: darklight on June 21, 2013, 02:28:32 AM

Quote from: SGExodus on June 21, 2013, 02:24:43 AM

Can still easily sell 20k coins at mtgox and still keep price above $100 on mtgox and 50k coins while still keeping price above $90. Can't say the same for other exchanges.

Yes sure, but theres a chance their 20k BTC worth of dollars might disappear overnight. At the best it will sit in gox's account with no easy way to get it out

"a chance". A 1 in 20 chance, for example, would imply a 5% risk premium.

And if you had for example 5k BTC to dump, would you really take the 1 in 20 chance that your half a million might go down the toilet?

A manipulator won't do it because by their nature they like to be in control, and in this situation they aren't. Someone in this to invest won't do it because the risk is too high and they don't like pissing money away.

Its About Sharing

legendary

Activity: 1442

Merit: 1000

Antifragile

Wow, this is interesting. Looks like MtGox is really learning how to F themselves (not to mention a lot of their customers).
Looks like Gox is going to lose a lot more market share after this one, rightfully so and good for us.
I'm gonna sit this one out until things clarify themselves. Did I get my shooting star? Wink

Predictions from this fellas?

gizmoh

legendary

Activity: 1428

Merit: 1000

Quote from: SGExodus on June 21, 2013, 02:04:52 AM

Quote from: crazy_rabbit on June 21, 2013, 01:53:33 AM

I suspect this arbitrage will last until Mtgox re-enables withdrawals. To be honest, I'm not so tempted to take advantage of it. I bought 25 BTC at Bitstamp under 100, and while moving it to gox would net me about $300, it doesn't feel worth the effort. My total bitcoin stash fluctuates by far more then $300 on an hourly basis, so it feels like nitpicking.

Move more over and sell and take a short position then. Afterall, it's weekend again, and the native Sunday dumper may re-appear this week.

No dumper will be fool enough to dump until/if withdrawals option are back.Be it manipulator as nobody will panic sell or genuine big seller.

nmersulypnem

full member

Activity: 238

Merit: 100

Quote from: darklight on June 21, 2013, 02:28:32 AM

Quote from: SGExodus on June 21, 2013, 02:24:43 AM

Can still easily sell 20k coins at mtgox and still keep price above $100 on mtgox and 50k coins while still keeping price above $90. Can't say the same for other exchanges.

Yes sure, but theres a chance their 20k BTC worth of dollars might disappear overnight. At the best it will sit in gox's account with no easy way to get it out

"a chance". A 1 in 20 chance, for example, would imply a 5% risk premium.

darklight

member

Activity: 88

Merit: 10

Quote from: SGExodus on June 21, 2013, 02:24:43 AM

Can still easily sell 20k coins at mtgox and still keep price above $100 on mtgox and 50k coins while still keeping price above $90. Can't say the same for other exchanges.

Yes sure, but theres a chance their 20k BTC worth of dollars might disappear overnight. At the best it will sit in gox's account with no easy way to get it out

SGExodus

full member

Activity: 232

Merit: 100

Quote from: darklight on June 21, 2013, 02:18:20 AM

Quote from: SGExodus on June 21, 2013, 02:04:52 AM

Quote from: crazy_rabbit on June 21, 2013, 01:53:33 AM

I suspect this arbitrage will last until Mtgox re-enables withdrawals. To be honest, I'm not so tempted to take advantage of it. I bought 25 BTC at Bitstamp under 100, and while moving it to gox would net me about $300, it doesn't feel worth the effort. My total bitcoin stash fluctuates by far more then $300 on an hourly basis, so it feels like nitpicking.

Move more over and sell and take a short position then. Afterall, it's weekend again, and the native Sunday dumper may re-appear this week.

The dumper would need balls of steel to bother selling on gox at this point in time, and the other markets don't have the depth for it to be worthwhile

Can still easily sell 20k coins at mtgox and still keep price above $100 on mtgox and 50k coins while still keeping price above $90. Can't say the same for other exchanges.

Frozenlock

sr. member

Activity: 434

Merit: 250

Why? Price are higher than everywhere else.
Seems like a perfect place to sell.

darklight

member

Activity: 88

Merit: 10

Quote from: SGExodus on June 21, 2013, 02:04:52 AM

Quote from: crazy_rabbit on June 21, 2013, 01:53:33 AM

I suspect this arbitrage will last until Mtgox re-enables withdrawals. To be honest, I'm not so tempted to take advantage of it. I bought 25 BTC at Bitstamp under 100, and while moving it to gox would net me about $300, it doesn't feel worth the effort. My total bitcoin stash fluctuates by far more then $300 on an hourly basis, so it feels like nitpicking.

Move more over and sell and take a short position then. Afterall, it's weekend again, and the native Sunday dumper may re-appear this week.

The dumper would need balls of steel to bother selling on gox at this point in time, and the other markets don't have the depth for it to be worthwhile

darklight

member

Activity: 88

Merit: 10

Pretty happy to be on Bitstamp right now, I think we will see a few more big dumps from people cashing out of gox over the next day or two. My buys at 95 went through, and now I've sold them to do it all again Grin

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33235. (Read 26711086 times)