ok then.
Plotted using sigmaplot.
regression analysis in genstat stats package (version 12) minus bubble data.
bitcoin price (logged) = -0.0635+0.0013791*time
predicted price= $24.24
when I first saw this, I sold everything. edit: all bitcoins
:)
Nice, so you actually didn't pull your prediction out of your ass, but used (polynomial) regression on historical data (not sure if it's wise to exclude bubble data/outliers, though). I respect that.
But do you want to know what is the single biggest assumption you make in your analysis, an assumption that some (including me) would consider completely unfounded, and in fact completely unrealistic?
That there is a single underlying growth function that governed the price of btc over the entire course of the data you looked at, and will continue to govern it.
Sure, you're free to make this assumption. But with that assumption removed, your analysis falls apart.
