Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33384.

Dalib

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Quote from: Coinseeker on May 13, 2013, 10:19:07 AM

Quote from: michaelGedi on May 13, 2013, 10:12:09 AM

Quote from: Coinseeker on May 13, 2013, 09:58:45 AM

I didn't say anything about people walking away. Although if markets tank it's almost certain you will see people move out of risky investments and into safer things like gold.

My point, while apparently not clearly spelled out, was that the recent rise in bitcoin is simply from all the media attention. Yes, die hard bit coiners view Bitcoin as a store of wealth but the rest of real world market investors do not. They view it as a purely speculative and very high risk investment. Nothing more. Simply put, people are not going to run in masses to stash money in Bitcoin because people do not trust Bitcoin. That time may certainly come, but that time is not today.

fair point, yes my "walk away" quote refers to general discussion elsewhere..

I totally agree re media attention, and from my perspective the continued media attention and slowly turning positive spin may change this issue tomorrow

It very well could. Exposure brings people into learning about Bitcoin. As they learn more, they can either begin to embrace some of the principles or reject them. Either way, they move from simply looking for a huge ROI by taking a risk in something speculative and into a deeper connection to what Bitcoin really is. When this happens, it will be possible for Bitcoin to be viewed as a safe, store of value possibly even regarded safer than gold. It's all possible but there is still a loooong ways to go.

So as not to get lost of the original point, I don't believe current world market conditions have much affect on Bitcoin at this time and thus is not a good indicator on whether Bitcoin prices rise or fall.

Yes, any investors abandoned ship and chose money, if there was a genuine accident (technical problem, hack their investment, or a problem with the legality cryptoměny). But when the value of the Bitcoin almost half of the April highs, and around 800% appreciation for five months, it may be more new investors coming in than leaving. Bitcoin not only strengthened, not burst like a bubble ... He knows about him a lot more people will increase and the possibility of its use ...

Richy_T

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Quote from: Babylon on May 13, 2013, 03:14:03 AM

I'm afraid I can't see that. Yeah, it makes money for people, but it makes more money for people who have more money. This shifts some of that control around a bit, but it isn't revolutionary in that way. It is revolutionary in that it allows people to trade without involving fiat. That potential isn't realized yet, but it is there. The potential to make it all about sharing? Not so much.

It's not about people being able to use money to make money, it's about people with money being able to buy power to manipulate money and the money supply. There's a big difference.

It's like Marx had it wrong. He was all worried about the workers having control of the means of production. What he should have been more worried about was control of the means of consumption.

Its About Sharing

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Antifragile

Quote from: Coinseeker on May 13, 2013, 10:02:07 AM

Quote from: Its About Sharing on May 13, 2013, 09:54:47 AM

Quote from: Coinseeker on May 13, 2013, 09:26:57 AM

Quote from: Its About Sharing on May 13, 2013, 08:22:08 AM

Quote from: fourkey2001 on May 13, 2013, 08:15:24 AM

Quote from: michaelGedi on May 13, 2013, 08:14:49 AM

well, cheap coins are here... this is it, the moment you've all been waiting for

The fall will happen today. India (second largest economy) market fell like 500 points.. biggest in 5 years. Nasdaq and Dow will go down today....

people will want to recover cash by selling something to buy other stocks...(at their lowest price)

highest at peak is BTC...

so be ready in 2 hours for big sells

Pretty bad logic there. You move money into things of value, not the other way around. Don't try to catch a falling Knife...
The markets are up due to the Quantitative Easing funneling money into markets. They will print more but this can't keep up. Hence why BTC is up, a reflection of inflation (unlike manipulated gold/silver, which is only partially a reflection).

Money starts to move again in to BTC now.

Bitcoin is up because people saw the media attention and saw a way to get rich quick. Nothing more, nothing less.

No, media attention alone and a quick rich scheme is a bit simplified. Are you open to discussion or is your "nothing more, nothing less" final? It is a hedge for people in dollars, Euros, etc. Get rich? How about don't let the banks take your money Cypress style (latest word is 80-90% of accounts with 100k or more). Some might get rich, but those are the few early adopters. This is a bit bigger than that.

If BTC came along in the past it wouldn't have done much because money systems were more secure (at least more hidden). People have been waking up to the printing of more money. Buy you jumped all over that and made it into a money thing. It is a people thing. It is about equality and self management. It is about controlling our rights and not using money for wars and minipulations.

This is a complex situation that is just starting in reality and for you to tell us the two things it depends on, which is more your projection, is pretty telling.

We are just starting, others currencies will follow. Other modifications, other solutions, etc.

Always open for discussion. Hell, anything is better than watching paint dry on these recent Bitcoin markets. Grin

Exactly, Bitcoin is just starting. You are confusing diehard bitcoiners views about Bitcoin, with the views of the rest of the investing world. The rest of the world does not yet view Bitcoin the way you've described. That's my only point as descibed above. They view it as highly speculative and very high risk. Traditionally, with market collapses or huge downswings, people pull money out of high risk investments and into things they perceive to be safe. Again gold is a traditional avenue. Bitcoin is not...at least not yet.

Ahh, I see you point a bit more. I'm not really a diehard bitcoiner, but I do see it as an incredible step forward. Very high risk, agreed. I wonder if those in Cypress thought the same? Grin

Yes, gold and silver are "safe" but manipulated down so people don't see as much value. Funnily enough, even with the huge slam down from the 500 ton paper sale a month ago, more people are guying it now. And, the banks are once again long. I think it was a hedge fund that might have done that sell. Anyway, I wonder when the hedges (in addition to VC's) go more heavily into BTC.)

It should be an interesting year and just think what may develop??? More China? Syria (I hope not). I do think some of the EU countries will have big problems...

Coinseeker

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Quote from: michaelGedi on May 13, 2013, 10:12:09 AM

Quote from: Coinseeker on May 13, 2013, 09:58:45 AM

I didn't say anything about people walking away. Although if markets tank it's almost certain you will see people move out of risky investments and into safer things like gold.

My point, while apparently not clearly spelled out, was that the recent rise in bitcoin is simply from all the media attention. Yes, die hard bit coiners view Bitcoin as a store of wealth but the rest of real world market investors do not. They view it as a purely speculative and very high risk investment. Nothing more. Simply put, people are not going to run in masses to stash money in Bitcoin because people do not trust Bitcoin. That time may certainly come, but that time is not today.

fair point, yes my "walk away" quote refers to general discussion elsewhere..

I totally agree re media attention, and from my perspective the continued media attention and slowly turning positive spin may change this issue tomorrow

It very well could. Exposure brings people into learning about Bitcoin. As they learn more, they can either begin to embrace some of the principles or reject them. Either way, they move from simply looking for a huge ROI by taking a risk in something speculative and into a deeper connection to what Bitcoin really is. When this happens, it will be possible for Bitcoin to be viewed as a safe, store of value possibly even regarded safer than gold. It's all possible but there is still a loooong ways to go.

So as not to get lost of the original point, I don't believe current world market conditions have much affect on Bitcoin at this time and thus is not a good indicator on whether Bitcoin prices rise or fall.

Richy_T

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Quote from: Pzi4nk on May 13, 2013, 01:05:01 AM

Quote from: SlipperySlope on May 13, 2013, 12:33:02 AM

If you find the 3-D depth chart unhelpful, then simply ignore the Chartbuddy user - its a bot.

I just find it confusing. How is one to interpret the chart?

To be fair, it's not really that interesting over the past couple of days.

michaelGedi

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Activity: 364

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"to be or not to be, that is the bitcoin"

Quote from: Coinseeker on May 13, 2013, 09:58:45 AM

I didn't say anything about people walking away. Although if markets tank it's almost certain you will see people move out of risky investments and into safer things like gold.

My point, while apparently not clearly spelled out, was that the recent rise in bitcoin is simply from all the media attention. Yes, die hard bit coiners view Bitcoin as a store of wealth but the rest of real world market investors do not. They view it as a purely speculative and very high risk investment. Nothing more. Simply put, people are not going to run in masses to stash money in Bitcoin because people do not trust Bitcoin. That time may certainly come, but that time is not today.

fair point, yes my "walk away" quote refers to general discussion elsewhere..

I totally agree re media attention, and from my perspective the continued media attention and slowly turning positive spin may change this issue tomorrow

NamelessOne

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Quote from: michaelGedi on May 13, 2013, 09:45:26 AM

Quote from: Coinseeker on May 13, 2013, 09:26:57 AM

Quote from: Its About Sharing on May 13, 2013, 08:22:08 AM

Quote from: fourkey2001 on May 13, 2013, 08:15:24 AM

Quote from: michaelGedi on May 13, 2013, 08:14:49 AM

well, cheap coins are here... this is it, the moment you've all been waiting for

The fall will happen today. India (second largest economy) market fell like 500 points.. biggest in 5 years. Nasdaq and Dow will go down today....

people will want to recover cash by selling something to buy other stocks...(at their lowest price)

highest at peak is BTC...

so be ready in 2 hours for big sells

Pretty bad logic there. You move money into things of value, not the other way around. Don't try to catch a falling Knife...
The markets are up due to the Quantitative Easing funneling money into markets. They will print more but this can't keep up. Hence why BTC is up, a reflection of inflation (unlike manipulated gold/silver, which is only partially a reflection).

Money starts to move again in to BTC now.

Bitcoin is up because people saw the media attention and saw a way to get rich quick. Nothing more, nothing less.

bold statement... I don't think anyone with a brain now will be expecting to get rich quick from bitcoin... I think there is more to it than that. It's a lot of effort to get involved in bitcoin. Once that (time and energy) investment is made, I doubt everyone will just "walk away" completely.

citing myself as an example. I came for the "get rich quick" I stayed for the "experiment" (yes I'm up a bit, but that could all dissappear if the experiment fails)

Been in bitcoin since May 2011 and I still think 'get rich quick' is a possibility with bitcoin considering how much money I've made now.

ChartBuddy

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Coinseeker

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Quote from: Its About Sharing on May 13, 2013, 09:54:47 AM

Quote from: Coinseeker on May 13, 2013, 09:26:57 AM

Quote from: Its About Sharing on May 13, 2013, 08:22:08 AM

Quote from: fourkey2001 on May 13, 2013, 08:15:24 AM

Quote from: michaelGedi on May 13, 2013, 08:14:49 AM

well, cheap coins are here... this is it, the moment you've all been waiting for

The fall will happen today. India (second largest economy) market fell like 500 points.. biggest in 5 years. Nasdaq and Dow will go down today....

people will want to recover cash by selling something to buy other stocks...(at their lowest price)

highest at peak is BTC...

so be ready in 2 hours for big sells

Pretty bad logic there. You move money into things of value, not the other way around. Don't try to catch a falling Knife...
The markets are up due to the Quantitative Easing funneling money into markets. They will print more but this can't keep up. Hence why BTC is up, a reflection of inflation (unlike manipulated gold/silver, which is only partially a reflection).

Money starts to move again in to BTC now.

Bitcoin is up because people saw the media attention and saw a way to get rich quick. Nothing more, nothing less.

No, media attention alone and a quick rich scheme is a bit simplified. Are you open to discussion or is your "nothing more, nothing less" final? It is a hedge for people in dollars, Euros, etc. Get rich? How about don't let the banks take your money Cypress style (latest word is 80-90% of accounts with 100k or more). Some might get rich, but those are the few early adopters. This is a bit bigger than that.

If BTC came along in the past it wouldn't have done much because money systems were more secure (at least more hidden). People have been waking up to the printing of more money. Buy you jumped all over that and made it into a money thing. It is a people thing. It is about equality and self management. It is about controlling our rights and not using money for wars and minipulations.

This is a complex situation that is just starting in reality and for you to tell us the two things it depends on, which is more your projection, is pretty telling.

We are just starting, others currencies will follow. Other modifications, other solutions, etc.

Always open for discussion. Hell, anything is better than watching paint dry on these recent Bitcoin markets. Grin

Exactly, Bitcoin is just starting. You are confusing diehard bitcoiners views about Bitcoin, with the views of the rest of the investing world. The rest of the world does not yet view Bitcoin the way you've described. That's my only point as descibed above. They view it as highly speculative and very high risk. Traditionally, with market collapses or huge downswings, people pull money out of high risk investments and into things they perceive to be safe. Again gold is a traditional avenue. Bitcoin is not...at least not yet.

Coinseeker

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Activity: 252

Merit: 250

Quote from: michaelGedi on May 13, 2013, 09:45:26 AM

Quote from: Coinseeker on May 13, 2013, 09:26:57 AM

Quote from: Its About Sharing on May 13, 2013, 08:22:08 AM

Quote from: fourkey2001 on May 13, 2013, 08:15:24 AM

Quote from: michaelGedi on May 13, 2013, 08:14:49 AM

well, cheap coins are here... this is it, the moment you've all been waiting for

The fall will happen today. India (second largest economy) market fell like 500 points.. biggest in 5 years. Nasdaq and Dow will go down today....

people will want to recover cash by selling something to buy other stocks...(at their lowest price)

highest at peak is BTC...

so be ready in 2 hours for big sells

Pretty bad logic there. You move money into things of value, not the other way around. Don't try to catch a falling Knife...
The markets are up due to the Quantitative Easing funneling money into markets. They will print more but this can't keep up. Hence why BTC is up, a reflection of inflation (unlike manipulated gold/silver, which is only partially a reflection).

Money starts to move again in to BTC now.

Bitcoin is up because people saw the media attention and saw a way to get rich quick. Nothing more, nothing less.

bold statement... I don't think anyone with a brain now will be expecting to get rich quick from bitcoin... I think there is more to it than that. It's a lot of effort to get involved in bitcoin. Once that (time and energy) investment is made, I doubt everyone will just "walk away" completely.

citing myself as an example. I came for the "get rich quick" I stayed for the "experiment" (yes I'm up a bit, but that could all dissappear if the experiment fails)

I didn't say anything about people walking away. Although if markets tank it's almost certain you will see people move out of risky investments and into safer things like gold.

My point, while apparently not clearly spelled out, was that the recent rise in bitcoin is simply from all the media attention. Yes, die hard bit coiners view Bitcoin as a store of wealth but the rest of real world market investors do not. They view it as a purely speculative and very high risk investment. Nothing more. Simply put, people are not going to run in masses to stash money in Bitcoin because people do not trust Bitcoin. That time may certainly come, but that time is not today.

Its About Sharing

legendary

Activity: 1442

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Antifragile

Quote from: Coinseeker on May 13, 2013, 09:26:57 AM

Quote from: Its About Sharing on May 13, 2013, 08:22:08 AM

Quote from: fourkey2001 on May 13, 2013, 08:15:24 AM

Quote from: michaelGedi on May 13, 2013, 08:14:49 AM

well, cheap coins are here... this is it, the moment you've all been waiting for

The fall will happen today. India (second largest economy) market fell like 500 points.. biggest in 5 years. Nasdaq and Dow will go down today....

people will want to recover cash by selling something to buy other stocks...(at their lowest price)

highest at peak is BTC...

so be ready in 2 hours for big sells

Pretty bad logic there. You move money into things of value, not the other way around. Don't try to catch a falling Knife...
The markets are up due to the Quantitative Easing funneling money into markets. They will print more but this can't keep up. Hence why BTC is up, a reflection of inflation (unlike manipulated gold/silver, which is only partially a reflection).

Money starts to move again in to BTC now.

Bitcoin is up because people saw the media attention and saw a way to get rich quick. Nothing more, nothing less.

No, media attention alone and a quick rich scheme is a bit simplified. Are you open to discussion or is your "nothing more, nothing less" final? It is a hedge for people in dollars, Euros, etc. Get rich? How about don't let the banks take your money Cypress style (latest word is 80-90% of accounts with 100k or more). Some might get rich, but those are the few early adopters. This is a bit bigger than that.

If BTC came along in the past it wouldn't have done much because money systems were more secure (at least more hidden). People have been waking up to the printing of more money. Buy you jumped all over that and made it into a money thing. It is a people thing. It is about equality and self management. It is about controlling our rights and not using money for wars and minipulations.

This is a complex situation that is just starting in reality and for you to tell us the two things it depends on, which is more your projection, is pretty telling.

We are just starting, others currencies will follow. Other modifications, other solutions, etc.

michaelGedi

sr. member

Activity: 364

Merit: 250

"to be or not to be, that is the bitcoin"

Quote from: Coinseeker on May 13, 2013, 09:26:57 AM

Quote from: Its About Sharing on May 13, 2013, 08:22:08 AM

Quote from: fourkey2001 on May 13, 2013, 08:15:24 AM

Quote from: michaelGedi on May 13, 2013, 08:14:49 AM

well, cheap coins are here... this is it, the moment you've all been waiting for

The fall will happen today. India (second largest economy) market fell like 500 points.. biggest in 5 years. Nasdaq and Dow will go down today....

people will want to recover cash by selling something to buy other stocks...(at their lowest price)

highest at peak is BTC...

so be ready in 2 hours for big sells

Pretty bad logic there. You move money into things of value, not the other way around. Don't try to catch a falling Knife...
The markets are up due to the Quantitative Easing funneling money into markets. They will print more but this can't keep up. Hence why BTC is up, a reflection of inflation (unlike manipulated gold/silver, which is only partially a reflection).

Money starts to move again in to BTC now.

Bitcoin is up because people saw the media attention and saw a way to get rich quick. Nothing more, nothing less.

bold statement... I don't think anyone with a brain now will be expecting to get rich quick from bitcoin... I think there is more to it than that. It's a lot of effort to get involved in bitcoin. Once that (time and energy) investment is made, I doubt everyone will just "walk away" completely.

citing myself as an example. I came for the "get rich quick" I stayed for the "experiment" (yes I'm up a bit, but that could all dissappear if the experiment fails)

Coinseeker

sr. member

Activity: 252

Merit: 250

Quote from: Its About Sharing on May 13, 2013, 08:22:08 AM

Quote from: fourkey2001 on May 13, 2013, 08:15:24 AM

Quote from: michaelGedi on May 13, 2013, 08:14:49 AM

well, cheap coins are here... this is it, the moment you've all been waiting for

The fall will happen today. India (second largest economy) market fell like 500 points.. biggest in 5 years. Nasdaq and Dow will go down today....

people will want to recover cash by selling something to buy other stocks...(at their lowest price)

highest at peak is BTC...

so be ready in 2 hours for big sells

Pretty bad logic there. You move money into things of value, not the other way around. Don't try to catch a falling Knife...
The markets are up due to the Quantitative Easing funneling money into markets. They will print more but this can't keep up. Hence why BTC is up, a reflection of inflation (unlike manipulated gold/silver, which is only partially a reflection).

Money starts to move again in to BTC now.

Bitcoin is up because people saw the media attention and saw a way to get rich quick. Nothing more, nothing less.

Its About Sharing

legendary

Activity: 1442

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Antifragile

Quote from: oda.krell on May 13, 2013, 08:29:09 AM

Here are the results of my recent (mtgox) order book calculations. As always, to be taken with a large grain of salt, since the order book is of course a primary tool for manipulation.

Apart from the obvious findings (rather big ask wall at 120; significant drop of bid/ask ratio over the weekend, from a peak of ~140 to ~120, now slightly going up again), the average of the 'all orders market execution price' is going up again, after going down about 10 USD over the weekend, indicating more bids/less asks and a better price composition. Finally, price composition in the range of the previous bid/ask totals also improved slightly, prices up about 2% compared to 12h ago.

Looks good to me. Word of caution though: with similar, in fact: even better values at the end of last week (my calculations showed a peak of the above values on the 10th), we barely passed 120, and not for long either. So I'm not exactly holding my breath that we're going to break 125 this week, although I'm not ruling it out either.

On the other hand, as I have posted multiple times now, as long as those metrics (and the related money flow metrics) don't substantially change in the coming days, I really don't see the potential for any sharp decline either.

I just went through it as well and clearly there is money starting to flow back into BTC. It is not huge, but the first decent jump I've recorded in a week or so and the bids (130k) at $70 are higher now than any (I've) recorded.
Sell side $ value at 100k and 50k are up as well. Things starting to creep.

But, as you said, manipulation can occur here, but still a good sign. I don't see any big walls anyway, it is the many small ones we can't see.
Edit - I now see the walls coming up.

Ultraviolet

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1300 BTC wall (which is a huge wall by recent volume's standards) just went up at 118.19 before a 500 BTC sell off. After sell off it moves to 117.89.

I've been thinking the last few days that with the ask depth being piled up so high and prices not able to make any real progress beyond 118, any large downward movement, something that took the price down to 103-104, in the market could trigger a cascade of stop-loss and panic sells as people look for an exit fearing prices won't rebound.

ChartBuddy

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michaelGedi

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Activity: 364

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"to be or not to be, that is the bitcoin"

Quote from: oda.krell on May 13, 2013, 08:50:19 AM

Quote from: michaelGedi on May 13, 2013, 08:40:39 AM

[...]

Maybe the correction is over?

*speculation*

I gave up on answering that particular question. Too many variables, too much uncertainty. My current lookahead is approximately 1 week, and not much further. And so far, indicators are good that this week will be positive or at least stable. That's good enough for me

haha, brilliant idea... let bitcoin provide the answer in the long run instead of trying to calculate it

oda.krell

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Quote from: michaelGedi on May 13, 2013, 08:40:39 AM

[...]

Maybe the correction is over?

*speculation*

I gave up on answering that particular question. Too many variables, too much uncertainty. My current lookahead is approximately 1 week, and not much further. And so far, indicators are good that this week will be positive or at least stable. That's good enough for me :)

rezurect

sr. member

Activity: 686

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Talks of Prime Ministers Replacement, causing Indian stock index to go down.
Rest of the world isn't supposed to follow for that reason.
Even if it does ,isnt another cypress effect expected?

DougTanner

sr. member

Activity: 280

Merit: 250

Looks like the price has survived the weekend. I wonder if we'll continue up soon.

Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33384. (Read 26462609 times)