History repeating itself?
We live in hope.
Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion - page 33649. (Read 26496372 times)
May 08, 2013, 09:42:58 AM
May 08, 2013, 09:38:26 AM
History repeating itself?
May 08, 2013, 09:36:49 AM
I figure 194 bitcoins mined per hour at this rate. Interesting to compare that number with hourly trading volume - which was 1095 in the last complete hour at Mt. Gox.
May 08, 2013, 09:36:01 AM
Didn't check the data, but I'm the only one feeling this is the Wednesday with lowest volume in 2013? We had many weekends with more volume than this.
get some sleep while you can! 
May 08, 2013, 09:35:42 AM
Well, the oscillations (gravy train) are essentially over on the mother-of-all-triangles. We are entering the pinch point. The next few days will be interesting.
In all metrics you could go either way:
On the one hand we have 17M on the bid side which is over double what we had originally climbing into 100. But the end of the bank holiday did not increase bids. Of course, the pinch point is not a good time to place bids if you can just watch the charts so there could be secret rocket fuel on Gox.
On the news front we have very bullish news coming out of China, but medium term. But those directly involved will not be able to buy for quite some time. And we seem to have news exhaustion in the western world -- what coverage there is is all about speculation or regulation. But lots of bears posting here... implying that people who wanted out are out.
Fundamentally, the transactional uses for BTC that have existed since early/mid 2012 seem to remain strong (although I haven't heard updates from gambling sites, etc). So the 2012 extrapolated exponential trendline (call it E0) seems very solid. However, the question the market will resolve in the next week is whether the E1 trendline (starting Jan 2013) is also solid (leaving E2 and E3 as the bubble exponentials). On the bull side, note the trendline started near the block reward halving event & adoption of BTC payment options by certain web sites (these events sequester/limit supply and remain in force). On the bear side, that trendline is still freakin' insane :-), and anyway "final capitulation" event would likely plumb below it (we are right on it now). Also on the bear side: rpietila thinks its a sure thing, and is basing his "I am THE new gentleman elite" posts on its continued performance. ;D
In all metrics you could go either way:
On the one hand we have 17M on the bid side which is over double what we had originally climbing into 100. But the end of the bank holiday did not increase bids. Of course, the pinch point is not a good time to place bids if you can just watch the charts so there could be secret rocket fuel on Gox.
On the news front we have very bullish news coming out of China, but medium term. But those directly involved will not be able to buy for quite some time. And we seem to have news exhaustion in the western world -- what coverage there is is all about speculation or regulation. But lots of bears posting here... implying that people who wanted out are out.
Fundamentally, the transactional uses for BTC that have existed since early/mid 2012 seem to remain strong (although I haven't heard updates from gambling sites, etc). So the 2012 extrapolated exponential trendline (call it E0) seems very solid. However, the question the market will resolve in the next week is whether the E1 trendline (starting Jan 2013) is also solid (leaving E2 and E3 as the bubble exponentials). On the bull side, note the trendline started near the block reward halving event & adoption of BTC payment options by certain web sites (these events sequester/limit supply and remain in force). On the bear side, that trendline is still freakin' insane :-), and anyway "final capitulation" event would likely plumb below it (we are right on it now). Also on the bear side: rpietila thinks its a sure thing, and is basing his "I am THE new gentleman elite" posts on its continued performance. ;D
Apologies for quoting a day old post on a topic that moves as fast as this, but I wanted to say thanks for a very interesting analysis. By all means, keep on posting :)
May 08, 2013, 09:33:09 AM
Didn't check the data, but I'm the only one feeling this is the Wednesday with lowest volume in 2013? We had many weekends with more volume than this.
May 08, 2013, 09:15:59 AM
There is no BTC reality. Currency value equals to amount of gold it holds.
abject and total history/reality fail
May 08, 2013, 09:13:56 AM
Shorting BTC is starting to be available on different platforms. When that spreads, we will see more downward pressure.
I am shorting it... and I know it will fall. Its just making all of you a fool
There is no BTC reality. Currency value equals to amount of gold it holds. [...]
Send me all your paper monyz plzokthnks.
(will send .0001 BTC)
May 08, 2013, 09:07:21 AM
May 08, 2013, 09:00:49 AM
May 08, 2013, 08:56:16 AM
I hope this isn't too noobvious but doesn't the USD/BTC line strongly support the bears for the next couple of months? I'm sceptical about the alternative likelihood of prolonged sideways action
May 08, 2013, 08:52:20 AM
Shorting BTC is starting to be available on different platforms. When that spreads, we will see more downward pressure.
There is no BTC reality. Currency value equals to amount of gold it holds.Bullshit. 1971 the USD detached completely from gold and EUR was never linked to it anyway.
May 08, 2013, 08:51:17 AM
Shorting BTC is starting to be available on different platforms. When that spreads, we will see more downward pressure.
I am shorting it... and I know it will fall. Its just making all of you a fool
There is no BTC reality. Currency value equals to amount of gold it holds. BTC has nothing to back itself. No Equity. Pure liquid capital investement. When the anonymous japanese runs away with all your money.... people will cry here
My guess is this is pure troll (and Rampion, I think he's probably referring to Satoshi not Karpeles) but what's interesting about it is that there are people out there who believe so strongly in the simplistic 'gold-backed-or-valueless' thing that when shorting becomes easily available a significant amount of money will be bet against Bitcoin in this manner.
I can't see enough of the bigger picture to tell what how this would affect the market but my guess is they'll have to be borrowing btc from somewhere to short it so if there's a high demand then maybe there'll be profit to be made in lending at a reasonable interest?
He refers to Satoshi? Man, I'm writing a software so as soon as one of the first generated bitcoins move, I'm automatically dumping everything!
(just joking)
May 08, 2013, 08:48:35 AM
Who is the anonymous japanese? As this is a thread about MtGox, which is a Japanese company, maybe you refer to the owner? FYI: he is not anonymous and he is not japanese. He is French and his name is Mark Karpeles.
What is public knowledge about this guy? There is no Wikipedia article or the like...
Is he a weirdo?
Well, there aren't Wikipedia articles of a lot of CEOs. I'd say that 90% of CEOs in the world don't have a Wikipedia entry for them. But there is a Wikipedia entry for MtGox.
MtGox is a fully registered company, scrutinized by law, with a large history of legitimacy. That's why is such a pain to comply with all their documents requirements, because they are ultra legit.
Public knowledge about Karpeles? You have to be new to ask for that. There's a lot of public info about him. Start checking here: http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Mark+Karpeles+mtgox
May 08, 2013, 08:46:53 AM
Shorting BTC is starting to be available on different platforms. When that spreads, we will see more downward pressure.
I am shorting it... and I know it will fall. Its just making all of you a fool
There is no BTC reality. Currency value equals to amount of gold it holds. BTC has nothing to back itself. No Equity. Pure liquid capital investement. When the anonymous japanese runs away with all your money.... people will cry here
My guess is this is pure troll (and Rampion, I think he's probably referring to Satoshi not Karpeles) but what's interesting about it is that there are people out there who believe so strongly in the simplistic 'gold-backed-or-valueless' thing that when shorting becomes easily available a significant amount of money will be bet against Bitcoin in this manner.
I can't see enough of the bigger picture to tell what how this would affect the market but my guess is they'll have to be borrowing btc from somewhere to short it so if there's a high demand then maybe there'll be profit to be made in lending at a reasonable interest?
May 08, 2013, 08:46:37 AM
Also read the professionals (rpietella,) comments here carefully;
Hahahaha. Too funny. 
May 08, 2013, 08:43:44 AM
thanks for the support! When (if) I make it, I'll send you a tip 
Your hopes seem ambitious in a flat but volatile market. But BTC is on an exponential adoption -- the only debate is what exponential
. It might not be your trading that does it but just underlying appreciation. So I recommend you run some spreadsheet projections. Against a realistic estimate of your day trading:
How much you can save from your day job and put it into BTC?
How much would BTC have appreciated anyway?
Realize that you can still catch a LOT of the major price action with the opportunity to trade 2x per day (6am and 9pm say)?
I think you'll find actually earning money and investing it works out better for you. Esp. when you realize that while day trading excess money is "fun", it SUCKS when it affects your ability to pay for food/rent.
Also read the professionals (sunnakar, rpietella, Loaded) comments here carefully; they may gloat about trading, but their bread and butter is a variety of financial services -- essentially they find BTC for whales off-market and take a slice. What do you think rpietella's "rock star" persona and summit is all about? Rock star so noobs go to him with their $. Summit is to build a "dealer network" -- in other words provide rpeitella enough depth so he can service the whales.
May 08, 2013, 08:41:32 AM
Shit happens.
There are bigger bulls and bears out there
It will go there eventually
There are bigger bulls and bears out there
It will go there eventually
May 08, 2013, 08:39:27 AM
I just had a source confirm who predicted the 110 price as of now at 6pm and further said, bitcoin will crash to 70-80 in the next few hours/1 day (depending where you are) followed by 50 and then stay there for a week or two and then bounce again after the conference to 120 and go back down.
Sell sell sell now for your profits.... and buy back...
cheers!
Sell sell sell now for your profits.... and buy back...
cheers!
Price will drop to 50!!!
I have cashed out 10k ...waiting for $50 ))))
))))BTC to go down to $50... sell sell sell
It will fall more... go below 90 in the next few hours
let the japanese and indians wakeup!
Quoted for the lulz.
Man, you did not get a single prediction right.
May 08, 2013, 08:36:38 AM
Who is the anonymous japanese? As this is a thread about MtGox, which is a Japanese company, maybe you refer to the owner? FYI: he is not anonymous and he is not japanese. He is French and his name is Mark Karpeles.
What is public knowledge about this guy? There is no Wikipedia article or the like...
Is he a weirdo?
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