Topic: Warning: How many of you Bears have ever been a victim of a Short Squeeze? - page 5. (Read 43736 times)

hmmm, why are they reaccumulating?

this is a brilliant chart by inca, btw.

notice this:  none of us early adopters are going anywhere:

yawn

>Mantra

The pressure during this pullback in 2011  was orders of magnitude greater than what we are seeing now.  When it was much less clear that Bitcoin was going to make it.

The huge bid walls we're seeing right now indicate the bear is almost over along with the record shorts on BFX. We had some deep despair as well yesterday with David Seaman apparently freaking out on Twitter along with Flibbr. Unfortunately, those are good signs.

Also the number of persistent trolls cheering here in out presence tells you something. Just like the trolls in this thread 3y ago.  There's an agenda in place.

nope, at least its below the line at the moment

Lets see if China holds:

Bumping these threads is so much fun.

I remember thinking during Q2-Q4 2011 that it would be a blast to revisit those threads years down the road. Well, here we are, at 100x the price, while a new crop of similarly narrow-minded weak-thinkers have the same short-term-focused discussion over and over.

Looking forward to bumping current threads in 2017.

#we'veTalkedAboutThisBefore

have you?

The Breakaway is upon you.

Easily because the USD's never got out and are just sitting there ready to be mobilized.

Not to mention all the additional from those of us who sent money in. 

If Emptygox opens up BTC withdrawals even at a limited rate, we could well see this baby shoot from 90 to 900.

ah, feels so good to be bent over.  yes, yes!!!

so who sold/went short under $100?

>150% is nothing. 

we're in the bend over phase.  wait til we get to the rip your face off stage.

actually, i don't think we are disagreeing as we are both long term bulls.  we are just debating how fast the liquidation will play out in a bk case.  and it is that speed (i'm arguing slow) which can make the difference btwn disaster and a home run from the speculative standpoint.  imo, it really shouldn't matter when that creditor gets his usd. if i were a goxusd creditor all that would matter to me is that i eventually do get it back even if years down the line.  how much is what matters

Sure, it would take time. I think, though, as stated earlier, that in a traditional process, it's "liquidate at Point A, repayment down the line at Point B." This is impossible to time, so it's a bad position to be in for a long term bull. (I am talking only about the case of bankruptcy, not betting on whether or not Gox is solvent/will continue to operate)

Regarding the trustee's mandate, you are still asserting that he/she can play the role of financial speculator, and that the courts will allow this. And even if the BTC were liquidated years down the line, that does not mean that creditors will be immediately repaid -- far from it. It is where the price goes from this point that I am talking about. From here, creditors could still be locked in a USD position for some time. Not the greatest analogy, but Full Tilt was reorganized almost two years ago -- I am still waiting for repayment.

I don't find the case convincing, but I'm fine with agreeing to disagree at this point.

I agree that betting on the Gox fiasco could be (and has been) very lucrative. I just think it's playing with fire. At some point, the world will take notice of bitcoin, and rogue businesses like Gox will be shut down by regulators.

na, good bears will double down at 700

gotta be feeling the squeeze now.

I'm not sure how i let this discussion devolve into a legal one around bankruptcy proceedings.  IANAL and i don't have any bk experience fortunately. i have thought about what you said in regards to liquidation to legal fiat and i believe it is a reasonable assumption.  a link to that  legal requirement would be appreciated for my edification. but i still disagree with your assumed timing of that liquidation for practical reasons from the perspective of the trustee.  said trustee is likely to be very unfamiliar with Bitcoin and not know how to properly liquidate to attain maximum fiat value.  i'm sure it would take months of consultation and discussion as to how and what to do with the goxbtc. if they decided to liquidate to fiat like you suggest, and if they decide on Peter's suggestion of an auction, that would take significant time as well.  in the meantime, the price of btc could very well be much higher.

but all this misses my original point of 2d ago and that was coming not from a legal perspective but from one of a speculator.

When I revived this thread 2d ago, goxbtc was <$100.  the point i was trying to make was that anyone who was in goxusd should consider converting into goxbtc at bargain prices of <$100, and that if one was still in goxbtc, stay there.  assuming bk happened today, i believe any goxbtc-->goxusd liquidation would come months, perhaps years later as i've argued above, but at most likely much higher btc prices (hopefully $10,000 ).  even a month could make a huge difference. auction bidders would probably be bidding much higher for those goxbtc, which hopefully would be real btc, thus maximizing any usd returned from the creditor process which would satisfy the trustees mandate.  in fact, if we've bottomed and the prices start escalating now, as we may have already done, the pressure on the trustee to immediately liquidate to preserve value would be alleviated and give him time to liquidate in a safe and orderly manner.  selling alot of goxbtc at once would not be an easy matter to preserve value for his creditors as you've argued.  the kind of liquidation we're talking about with gox could severely tank the price.  there's a conundrum there btwn quick liquidation and that mandate.

2d ago i was arguing that if one failed to sell their goxbtc @ $900 goxusd and rode it down to <$100, that would not have been the time to sell out for goxusd.  they'd be stuck at that severely reduced value.  and if someone had the foresight to sell @ $900 goxusd, they should re-buy goxbtc @ <$100 and potentially pick up 9x their original goxbtc.  the upside potential of that play is enormous coupled with the above scenario i've outlined about the liquidation process above.  in fact, we're beginning to see this.  if we see any further restoration of goxbtc, and goxusd withdrawals (no bk), we will surely send the value of goxbtc rocketing upwards.  there was a thread on Reddit and apparently the short interest on btc is near record highs right now.  this could result in the ultimate squeeze which is why i necro'd this thread.

the risk benefit ratio is low, imo.