I think we basically agree. I don't think bitcoin can fail as in go to zero for no good reason and be replaced by another big (billion dollar) cryptocurrency and so on in a cycle of total failure after succession after total failure. I think succession in cryptocurrency has to mirror the example of empires in world hisgtory.
The Roman empire can wane, and the Holy Roman Empire can replace it but Italian powers are still a thing. Still a force to be reckoned with.
The British empire can wane and America rises but the United Kingdom is still a thing. It's still a force.
Every dynasty in China claims to hold the "heavenly mandate." The divine right to rule. Legitimacy.
As you said, you can have bitcoin wane and lose marketshare to some novel, useful technologies, but it'll still be considered a success if it survives and holds a decent marketcap.
But if bitcoin fails completely, then I believe that the legitimacy of cryptocurrency is irredeemably compromised. And that's what I mean. If bitcoin's not a success, nothing will be a success. Every novel blockchain-based cryptocurrency is flowing forth from the tradition of bitcoin.
it won't go to zero in a splitsecond. The market is just governed by supply and demand. The free market is the real thing. You can't argue against it without looking like a fool. Every Coin is governed by the same supply/demand game.
I think 50$ for a Bitcoin can be had throughout the year. Will it reach 1000$ soon? Probably not although you never know. In the meantime we'll make profit with other things and everyone will be more than happy to finally be out of this bearmarket. If bitcoin doesn't come out ahead this time it's no big deal. Even a complete fail would not end the industry although it would look much better to the general public if it would gradually decline instead of just crash and i think it will do exactly that. It's still good for transactions even if it can't hold the value so it won't be totally useless and abandoned by next week but it will have to face the competition.
It's all going to turn out ok in the end i am sure.
What needs to be achieved is some kind of better climate in the forum and more cooperation between the legit coins and not so much trashing each other of good projects. But i am confident we can get there when there's profit for everyone again.
Most important for everyone will be to bring down the number of scams and bring up the number of legit longterm projects so the PR for all crypto doesn't suffer more than it already did.
Bitcoin will have pump and dump value for at least another year would be my expectation.
