Topic: What percentage of people on Earth will own Bitcoin by 2020 - page 45. (Read 46516 times)

if we manage to see the global adoption around the world increases to 10% of the total world population, then we can see that as a great achievement. right now there are over 7 billion human beings in the world. 10% of that would mean that there will be over 700 million people using/owning bitcoin. that's quite an insane adoption number, isn't it? everything above 20% will most likely never happen as bitcoin is and will most likely always be just an alternative to fiat.

we can't calculate or make own prediction about percentage of people on earth will own bitcoin. IMO, now bitcoin is still under manipulated by some people, i mean some people hold many bitcoin it's bad for bitcoin.

2-5 for conservative speculation 5-10 for very optimistic speculation, other % is pure dreaming

people forget that 5-10 alone is 700M.... we are still at 3M

Those who voted 20-30% are being wildly optimistic, I think.  There would have to be major reasons for owning bitcoin, e.g., currency collapse or some such, and I do hope that doesn't happen.  Also it's going to have to be accepted at far more outlets than it is and it's going to have to become easier to understand and/or use.

I voted 2-5%.

Well its difficult to say because you do not what will happen with the bitcoin but I think it will rise to a high amount and it will get more popular.
Its already getting more popular by day, I think 43% will own a bit of bitcoin in 2020.

Does anyone at least have a clue of how many people own bitcoin now? We know that the number of users is rising constantly and quite consistently. If we can get an idea of how many people own bitcoins now, we can use data provided by blockchain.info (and maybe other sources) to try and guess a number.

Like, for example, if you take a look at this graph you'll see that the number of transactions per day is consistently increasing. There are about 200,000 transactions a day, as of now. A way to extrapolate this data would give us about 400,000 in 2020, that's twice as much. By using the same extrapolating method on other graphs (such as the one for the number of unique addresses and others consistent data) I get a number somewhere between 2 times and 3 times as high as now. I'd bet around there for the number of bitcoin holders in 2020 then : between 2 times and 3 times as high as now. That's just a bet though, and it's based on the assumption that since this data has raised in a somewhat consistent fashion until now, it is likely to keep on that way. That's only an assumption, nothing too rigorously scientific. A lot of stuff can happen by 2020. Bitcoin could be dead by then (I don't think it's any likely but it's a possibility). Or on the opposite: inflation could have gotten so much out of control in the EU and the States that everyone would be using bitcoin (not much more likely, but still, a possibility).

Now does anyone have a clue about how many people are using bitcoin now?

I voted 20-30 and I'm glad that most of the people here voted same way. Indeed in 5 years from now it will be too early for all people in the world having some Bitcoins, but I'm sure that 100 years from now all of them will have some.

I have voted for 5-10% which i think will be better prediction. Looking at the current trend and different market starting to accept bitcoin making bitcoin more popular day by day.

I think we are just 30% percent but i hope in the future bitcoin will be popular in our country that we can advertise it in television.
Maybe in the near future will be in 40% if some banks accept bitcoins..

I voted for 20 to 30% although it seems a lot of improvement on to the percentage people own at the moment. I believe by then it will be somehow well known and adopted among mid generation (at least) therefor safe to estimate the outcome by at least some where within the range of 1/4 although it varies from each country and how they are in terms of technology and stuff.

I can't really see it going above the 0-2 in the next 4 years but I could be wrong, think it will be a few more years before we reach enough people to be hitting 2% of the entire world's population which currently stands at just above 7.4 billion http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

All those are probably impossible to happen (at least not for 2020) :

I personally don't think it's possible to decide now , we should at least see what's going to happen after the halving block reward and how successful OpenBazaar would be .

I've been running a poll for some time now about the value of 1 bitcoin by 2020 and it's safe to say a lot of different opinions and guesses are made.
This poll completes the other one and i'm really looking forward to everyone's input in this.

Tnx for your input