Topic: Wheat War I is going to be World War III - page 8. (Read 6279 times)

The situation will worsen if the diplomatic route is not carried out immediately, this will not only have an impact on Ukraine but also destabilize the world. Of course, there is a goal to be achieved from the alibis of both parties. and unfortunately there must be victims from civil society who are actually the weakest. and it will be even more messy if the country supporting ukraine has energy difficulties because it depends a lot on russia, so this is not a simple chessboard

That is if Zelenskyy surrenders, think about how we all supported Ukraine and then crash our country's economy because of our support to Ukraine and then all he does is surrender? He'd be branded all his life for that. Zelenskyy will not surrender but there were reports that his generals are going to usurp.

The hunger however will really make people crazy and will think of crazier ideas. The revolts may not be the result of inflation and lack of government's intervention to commodity prices but hunger will start making people steal food and money from the storage of the rich.

It is not stupid and going to the negotiation table will not be interpreted as surrender. Even with full NATO support, Ukraine has failed to halt advances by the Russian troops. Their regular army is all gone, and so are most of the neo-Nazi formations such as Azov and Aidar. Now the fighting is mostly being done by the reserve troops, who are suffering heavy casualties every day. What they need is an immediate ceasefire, so that further territorial and human losses can be prevented. If the fighting doesn't stop, Russia will simply conquer the entire South and East of Ukraine by the end of this year.

Can you give specific examples of the success that Ukraine has achieved at the cost of heavy losses? Judging by the reports from the fronts, Ukraine is suffering one defeat after another, losing city after city, and every month plans for a decisive counteroffensive are postponed for an indefinite period.

I already want to smoke that shit you smoke too.  

Saudi minister: we see lack of refining capacity in market, not lack of oil

Translation for wishful thinking: Saudi Arabia will adhere to the oil production schedule under the current OPEC + plan, while the crown prince promised Biden to increase capacity to 13 million barrels by 2027. In the language of diplomacy, this means politely sending a fuck so that the interlocutor has the taste of forest berries in his mouth.

Recently, European countries have been looking for and successfully finding suppliers for their countries of oil and gas, so as not to buy them in Russia. These are Azerbaijan, USA, UAE, Egypt, Norway and other countries. There is really a lot of oil and gas in other countries besides Russia. Europe is now realizing what a mistake they made by becoming dependent on their supplies from Russia, and therefore they are looking for other options, even if they temporarily suffer losses.
In addition, Europe also understands that it is no longer possible to give in to Putin, otherwise, after Ukraine, they may already be subjected to military aggression. Therefore, although they are not quite friendly, they still strive to provide all possible military assistance to Ukraine in order to stop Putin with the hands of Ukrainians. At the cost of heavy losses, Ukraine succeeds, and Russia's military power is steadily approaching its collapse. No one is pressing Ukraine to make concessions to Putin's regime. These conclusions are incorrect.

That is stupid. Then why they were fighting since February ? They could have surrender, or give that land for free. I dont think this was is going to end soon. I expect the end or decrease of Ukraine support by other countries, but some countries will get profitable and unprofitable contracts for natural resources Russia export. Like war in Ukraine was just a reason to reconsider resources prices and other obligations, like this war was sort of an excuse to do something.

I think the war is coming to an end within the next few months. Germany and other European countries are fearing shortages of gas supply this winter. I really think they are trying hard to persuade Zelensky and top Ukrainian officials to just give up Crimea and the rebel regions of Donbas and Luhansk in exchange for something like membership in the EU right away and committing billions of euros to rebuild its country. Russia needs to play its cards very well in the next few months if it wants to secure its primary objectives in Ukraine (e.g., Crimea, Donbas, Luhansk, and NATO ban on Ukraine). Russia needs to end this quickly before western Europe can find alternatives for their food, gas, and oil supplies. Food especially wheat maybe difficult to find and expensive nowadays but there will be some countries that can take advantage of this like Australia boosting its wheat supply. Oil and gas are everywhere, it only needs time to construct more ports and tunnels into Europe.

I think a sugar crisis is more imminent than wheat.
Brazil is switching to ethanol production from Sugar. Only India can fulfill the void left by Brazil, but India has already restricted sugar export to keep the domestic price low and so has other producers.

I am guessing poor African countries will perish more than others, followed by the middle east  

LOL.. the Saudis will increase their production to 13 million barrels per day by 2027. I really don't think that it is going to happen. They have around 1-2 million barrels per day of spare capacity, and that is not sufficient to increase their output by such an amount. And the Saudi crown price understands that Biden needs something from him, before the mid-term elections of November 2022. Once the elections are over, this announcement will be forgotten and the Saudis will stick to their earlier deal with Russia.

Your insisting on repeating the same idiotic statement is so funny. For your information they said they may increase production to 13 million bpd by 2027 meaning in 5 years not tomorrow or this month or this year.
Not to mention that Saudis are already at war with Yemen and each time they break the cease fire and bomb cities, the Yemenis retaliate by targeting the Saudi infrastructure that includes their oil facilities.

So yeah, we have to wait and see how much of it they can actually fulfill.

Again it has been 5 months and prices have been rising not dumping.

You've only been listening for the past 3-4 months since you are knee deep in propaganda, this war has been going on for at least 4 decades. It is also not Russia versus the West, it is East versus the West. In fact Russia is the last participant that used to be playing for the West. You seem to have forgotten that Putin once wanted to join NATO!!!

It is also not "destroying" the West, it weakens the West since it is the process of the world moving from a unipolar world to a multipolar world and that change comes with a lot of conflicts, Ukraine invasion is one of them.

Let's come back to this in a couple of months when the temperature drops.

Both, they can't have one without the other. In fact if you look at China's behavior in  the past decades you can clearly see that they want relations with everyone because they can't afford to choose only one side. For example they can't sell crap to EU if they don't have the Iranian energy. Not to mention that both EU and US markets are too fragile and unreliable to only depend on them, we can see how their economy is shrinking fast these days. And that's without the sanctions and trade wars that US keeps starting against China.

But China is still defined in the Eastern bloc and their policies are also defined in the Eastern bloc. If you look at BRICS and SCO you can see what I mean.

This Russian war after COVID  war has moved the world all together, But I am not sure about this wheat war.
This is a total propaganda and this will not happen any time sooner.

Look how interesting it turns out - you believe the idiotic propaganda from the Kremlin and take their statements as the only truth, but here "you still have to look" Do not measure everything in Russia - they systematically lie only in Russia! What you will soon see!

I absolutely agree that Iran will not sell everything to the West. I even wrote below - everything will go to the markets of China and India, where Iran will compete by dumping oil supplies. You don't need anything else

About the fact that adamant Russia here is destroying the rotten West, I have been hearing this nonsense for the last 3-4 months ... Since the "great Russia" got into its stupid snout from the Ukrainians, and ran away with a screech from almost half of the occupied territories. I'm sure you noticed how the controversy of the Kremlin propagandists has changed. At first, they gathered heroically and easily to "denify" Ukraine, and after they got hit in the face, they suddenly began to fight with the West. The reason is simple - you can’t tell the Russian cattle, the consumer of propaganda, that they were actually fucked by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which, according to the very propaganda, should have surrendered and scattered in the first weeks! So I had to invent a new fairy tale for unicellular
In short, don't repeat this nonsense anymore, you look stupid, no offense

I agree, guess!
For some time, due to the impossibility of a quick (months) change in supplies, or rather the ways of supplying gas and oil, the EU, namely Germany, France, most likely Italy and Hungary, will still continue to buy oil and gas in Russia. But this volume will constantly decrease. And in 2-3 years, this flow will dry up. That's right, it will be!

China, and most likely India, has no partners. The largest countries and economies of the region have only raw material appendages - the same Iran, the same Russia Tell me what is more profitable for China and India in economic relations - the EU and the US markets, which have an almost limitless size for sale and pay with strong currency, or impoverished, backward Russia with a resource economy? With whom will they really "be friends", and whom will they "use" for their own benefits?

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Don't worry bro - since the new year they are introducing an embargo on the purchase of Russian oil in the EU - we will continue at the end of the first quarter, do not forget to take the 1Q23 report for comparison with 1Q22 on the execution of the Russian budget in terms of oil revenues

It's cute that you think I care about USSR or Russia for that matter

First we have to see if they actually increase production that much and if Aramco is going to blow up again cutting the current production by another 50% dropping 10 million to 5!
By the way EU imports between 13 to 15 million barrels of oil per day.

None of it will go to the West though.
Iran is selling some small amounts to the West which there is no plan to increase it in near term. For example we recently learned from the US senator that the US Navy, the same Navy that idiot called Trump threatened Iran with, has been running on Iranian fuel LOL.

Same with gas, none of it will go to the West.

Although when it comes to politics we can't talk in absolutes but this is not possible. You see the problem is that more than 60% of the world is under US sanctions one way or another. So at some point it is US that is under sanction by the majority of the world.

What you are also forgetting is that the current war is between East and West not between Russia and Ukraine.
In this face off, Iran is in the Eastern bloc and is becoming the center of all trades. In other words there hasn't been any need to export anything (more than what existed for years) to the "West".
South America is also a region that US has been losing for some time, almost all countries there are moving to Anti-US governments and most of them are playing with the Eastern bloc too. Fun fact: for the first time in history a foreign super power (Iran) is going to hold military drills close to US waters next month with Venezuela (bye bye Monroe Doctrine haha).

Russian economy is harmed and will be harmed but nowhere near as much as EU economy is and will be.
Remember the Iranian tanker that Greece seized and was later forced to give back? That is carrying Russian oil to Western Europe.
In other words EU will continue funding the Russian invasion.

No because there is an alliance between Iran and China which India also wants to be part of. Not to mention that the increased production is because of increased demand, all of which came from the East not the West since Iran is still under Western sanctions (or as I said West is under Iranian sanctions, yesterday alone 61 Americans were sanctioned by Iran).

Iran has been selling its energy to more than a hundred different countries including United States.

It's been 5 moths bro, how much longer is "short term"?

The problem, for those who do not believe in this prediction, is that there has already been an identical case in history. Moreover, which is very important - last time it was essentially the same Russia! History is cyclical, and Russia is trying to prove it to us with its experience
Moreover, the analogy is more than clear - from the sanctions applied to the USSR / RF, to the conduct of a sadistic terrorist war in the neighboring country of Afghanistan / Ukraine. Moreover, there are many other events that will simply lead to the fact that Russia will remain isolated from the main market, and become an appendage of China and let there be India. But on this "friendship" you will not raise the Russian economy, and even more so you will not save it. The problem is that China and India will squeeze out of Russia, for a penny, everything they need (oil / gas), and then they will be thrown out like an unnecessary bald, dystrophic kitten. China benefits and even needs economic relations with the West, on which it is highly dependent. China's export-oriented economy! And Russia is not a market, it is a raw material appendage. Who will China choose?

This is the whole propaganda. This is not going to happen
Some news show as if the world is going to collapse - and this will never happen. Be positive and everything will be okie.

A few words about oil.

1. Yesterday's news - Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, at the request of the United States, announced an increase in oil production to 13 million barrels per day (currently at 10 million). That is, the market will receive 3 million barrels more daily. Is it a lot or a little?
Let's calculate: The level of Russian oil supplies to the EU market is 2.4 million barrels (reference: According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), Russia exported 2.4 million barrels of oil per day to the EU in 2021 - this is slightly more than half of all exports). The total volume of daily sales is approximately 4.6 million barrels per day.
Answer: Saudi Arabia will replace 65% of ALL Russian oil, just by slightly raising production. Or 125% of the EU requirement. It is possible that part of the oil will also go to the United States, and farmers will be saved.

2. Iran. Southern Azadegan. Who does not know - a large oil field in Iran, separated from the Azadegan field in 2006. Recoverable oil reserves in Azadegan are 9 billion barrels (about 1.2 billion tons), or 1/8 of ALL RESERVES of Russian oil (mostly difficult to produce). Now the field is already producing oil and is actively developing.

By the way, the daily production of natural gas at the 11th phase of the South Pars field will be 14 million cubic meters!

At the same time, I do not exclude at all that such countries as Venezuela, Iran - can make a "deal with the investigation", or rather with the United States and in exchange for oil supplies to the US market (primarily Venezuela), and the EU (more likely Iran), and gain more loyalty and lift some sanctions....

What am I for?
1. Russian oil exports will irreversibly lose the European market. At what without harm to the EU but with huge losses for Russia.
2. Will the active development of production in Iran lead to increased price competition in the Chinese and Indian hydrocarbon markets? Why ? Because only they buy oil in huge volumes from rogue countries, and will use the situation exclusively for their own benefit, I understand perfectly well that these countries have no other buyers, and there are no dimensionless oil storage facilities, and conservation of production is even more expensive.
3. Countries dependent on Russia's "antics" in the hydrocarbon market will very quickly find adequate suppliers, and in the short term the problem will be solved.

Now I am starting to think further about the economic crisis that has hit almost all parts of the world. If we collect all the news from every country related to the current economic crisis, it seems that it is getting worse day by day. even the latest news from the IMF, related to inflation in the United States (US) has jumped to 9.1%. This figure is said to be the highest in 40 years. if conditions like this continue then world war III is in sight. because hunger is now starting to increase in some countries. food is the only thing that must be a priority at this time. wheat, rice and other staples will be an important thing that every country really has to think about. And for the EU, which is used to imports, the impact will be felt. because now each country will not focus too much on exporting because each country will focus on meeting the needs of its own country. When big countries with great powers are already squeezed with their limited food needs, it is not impossible that there will be invasions into several countries that have enough food for them to take.
lucky i'm in a country that doesn't depend on imported materials. because in my country food is easy to get because my country is one of the largest food producing countries. because the farmers here have started to get used to managing the land without fertilizer manufacturers. farmers have started to use organic fertilizers and make natural decomposers for fermentation that can be used to make fertilizers and feeds such as EM4 and POC.

Good for people like me who got celiac   

I wonder - when the whole world was going through post COVID crisis why did Russia attack Ukraine.
There are people dying already in the whole world and they want to kill the people - and this inflation is killing us.

In the USSR, there was also a thick layer of science fiction writers who expected the collapse of the United States
That dollar should have ceased to have value. Then in the United States there was to be a revolution of the working class, envious, of course, of the USSR.
As the USSR faded, fantasies became crazier - for example, that the Yellowstone volcano should explode. And this is exactly what Vanga predicted! And this means that this event should happen any day, and the United States will definitely not
And then, the USSR suddenly began to squeal "oh! and who shit in our pants!? No, we didn’t shit ourselves, it was someone who shitted us in our underpants! These are all insidious Americans." After that, the USSR collapsed loudly. Of course, you have the right to fantasize about how American farmers will go bankrupt, it obviously warms your soul But it’s better to make sure that when Russia “gets up off its knees” again, someone throws at least a crust of bread when you once again beg everyone has handouts. Now Russia has become a world outcast country, to which no one will ever lend a helping hand ... And you worry about the farmers!