Topic: Wheat War I is going to be World War III - page 7. (Read 6278 times)

It's not stupidity though; it's just that 95% of European regimes are caught up in a much bigger game. Their countries have been a pawn in that game ever since WWII. So for example England that doesn't rely on Russian energy like Germany does could force rules upon the union to ban such imports. Germany that is desperate for the energy is too weak and lacks independence to oppose it. If such rules were to be enforced on them, it'd their country that falls apart.

It's the repetition of what happened to Lithuania. Those who are sitting far away in safely forced Lithuania to increase tensions with Russia and Lithuania was too weak to oppose that decision apart from some statements in the media. After nukes were stationed in Belarus and assets moved in place to invade Lithuania or at least take the Suwałki Gap the decision had to be reversed or risk the Union falling apart!
(If this sounds very similar to what happened to Ukraine that's because it is.)

This is why some analysts believe that European Union could be coming to an end. Specially if it continues benefiting one or two countries while ruining the rest.

Again with the predictions, master strategist?
Should I offer you for the third time a bet that what you predict as always will not happen?
Since you've posted this shit about 10000 times I guess it earned you enough to put a 0.1BTC where your mouth is, or as always you're all talk and no spine?


Oh yeah, german manufacturing will be completely destroyed because the 2.2 trillion economies will have to pay 31 billion more on gas.
Out of which 15% goes to electricity that can be prepared and 30% goes to heating which is not doing any manufacturing at all.


How long can an 18 trillion economy subsidize energy imports when all the exports of fossil fuel from Russia are worth 300 billion? Yeah, lol.
Again, you're just blabbing the same mantra about cheap products ignoring one fact!

European products have never been cheaper that the competition! Never!
People buy German machinery not because it's cheaper they buy it because the Germans are the only ones that make it in some cases and they buy it for the quality. Nobody buys a Mercedes because is cheap, nobody buys Siemens turbine ...lol, why do you think China imports so much from Germany?
The EU industry will collapse? Then you could say goodbye to chips as ASML is the only company in the world that builds lithography equipment for both Samsung and TSMC.


FTFY. You're welcome.

On the one hand, this is true, but on the other hand, this is what made Germany the leader and locomotive of the European Union. Also, do not forget that the European Union has very strong antitrust laws, including in terms of energy security. The heavy reliance on Russian energy supplies in Germany has been formed not so much by Russian efforts as by the efforts of the Green Party, which made an adventurous bet on renewable energy that did not work. According to the IMF, the complete rejection of Russian gas will cost Germany a loss of 4.8% of GDP (this is more than the estimate of the reduction in Russia's GDP from all Western sanctions).

However, we digress from the red thread of this topic. In the meantime, with the mediation of Turkey, the issue with the export of Ukrainian wheat seems to have been resolved. The talk was about a measly 20 million tons (Russia has already exported twice as much this year).

It was never a good idea for Germany to rely on Russia for energy to this extent, current events emphasize that but it was true a year, a decade or twenty years ago that energy security is important to an economy and they simply acted poorly chasing prices.  Path of least resistance is often going to put a country down a drain, no special take on what is Russia doing now or next required to observe that  repeated effect.


If prices remain elevated above 100 for many years it would be places like Venezuela or other challenging production that probably combats the highest prices from occurring.  Venezuela  has larger reserves of oil then Saudi Arabia but SA has the cheapest production where as we know Venezuela is another car crash government failed economy, I'd hope they can turn that around.  Similarly Nigeria, Libya or other challenging areas like parts of Canada would lead to higher production I would expect higher commodity prices promote  greater production for oil, wheat or anything but the short term shock effect especially where we had poor planning is unfortunate.


https://newsrnd.com/life/2022-07-21-turning-to-wheat--ukraine-and-russia-sign-the-agreement.HyIu9Xw3c.html

And yet, can you provide such proof? Not in the form of fantasies of employees of the center of psychological operations from social networks, but in the form of official statements of any high-ranking officials from Russia?


There will be no more goodwill gestures, Ukraine did not use its chance.

@be.open. It is a little strange that you need to prove something that is not disputed even now by the highest political and military leadership of Russia. In social networks, there is also a lot of evidence from the Russian army that before the invasion of Ukraine they were told that the people of Ukraine would meet them as liberators with flowers and that this "special operation" would take several days, and therefore they were provided with dry rations for three days . (True, these dry rations had an expired shelf life of several years). In addition, the military leadership of Russia did not worry about organizing the food for its troops during the seizure of Ukraine. Already when the Russian troops met a worthy rebuff from the Armed Forces of Ukraine and got bogged down in protracted battles in Ukraine, an order was issued for the invaders to provide themselves with food, that is, to rob shops and the population in Ukraine.

Russian intelligence was very wrong about the resistance of the Ukrainians because the Kremlin generously funded the subversive work in Ukraine. Only to one of the leaders of the opposition party in Ukraine, Medvedchuk, the Putin regime allocated about five billion dollars for the corresponding work on the unhindered occupation of Ukraine. This money was appropriated, and in return, cheerful reports were sent to Russia about the success of the work done. This was also the basis for Putin's subsequent decision to attack Ukraine.

And now Putin does not know how to end the war he unleashed, because he is suffering a military defeat in it. By the way, Russian troops did not capture Kyiv. They reached the suburbs of Kyiv, but soon they were defeated there and expelled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Russia now explains the shameful escape from the central and northern regions of Ukraine as a gesture of goodwill. As well as the flight from the captured Zmeiny Island after the sinking of the flagship of the Russian Black Sea Fleet "Moskva" and several smaller ships and boats. It seems that the Kremlin will also explain the flight from all over Ukraine as a gesture of goodwill.

^^^ LOL.. Russia doesn't need to cut the gas to Europe, if it want the Europeans to suffer. The Europeans are so stupid that in some time (maybe within the next one or two months) they will refuse the gas from Russia by themselves. And that's all it takes to make the destruction of the famed German manufacturing sector complete. Once the factories shut down, they will never be able to compete in the global market. Anyway, without cheap energy their products can't remain in the market. EU can subsidize, but for how long?

So this move where the gas gets cheaper is bad for the US and of course is bad for Europe too because, well reasons.....

I have to bow myself down to the god of all logic:
- Russia cuts the gas, the price goes over $2500, wait who uses cubic feet in European deliveries?  , so Europe is fucked
- Russia is not cutting the gas, gas goes down in price as deposits are getting full, and both Europe and the US, and Qatar are screwed.
- Russia is out of potatoes, Europe will die of hunger
- Russia can't afford to put airbags in their cars, European industry is collapsing


Yeah, they have the moral high ground since February 18th when they were publishing pictures of their army retreating to their bases in Russia and calling the west paranoid over a possible invasion of Ukraine.

Russia will not cut the gas to Europe, they know this is their last card and if they lay it they have nothing.
Just like a blackmailer who threatens you, it will release something or it will bomb something unless you give him money, the moment he actually blows up the bomb he knows he won't be getting anything. Same with Russia, if it cuts the gas it's the end of it, there is nothing more to threaten the west and nobody will want to deal with them again because if they do cut it once who guarantees it won't happen again!

So your dream of half of the population of Germany freezing to death will not happen either!

EU guys were getting paranoid for no concrete reason. Russia has resumed gas flows through Nord Stream. Similar to the case before 11th July, the pipeline will operate at 40% capacity, because Canada hasn't returned one of the turbines that was sent for repair. Now Russia is at a higher moral ground. Despite the sanctions being imposed on them by the EU, they are fulfilling their contract obligations. The US LNG exporters and Qatar is going to be bitterly disappointed, as they were dreaming of prices in the vicinity of $2,500 per thousand cubic meters.

Saudi is a member of OPEC, literally a gas an oil cartel. There is nothing they would want but a higher price. Like any cartel in the world they would rather be hoarding something whether it be wheat, gas, oil or garlic to make more profit in the coming months.

In the news recently, Russia was trying to do the maintenance of the pipeline going to Germany, and rumor has it that they may not put it back again for whatever reason they may give. Of course, reason may be true or not but it will still be means like sanction as they were also sanctioned.
We're all losing here.

It is not propaganda, but common sense. Do you really want us to believe that Saudi Arabia will increase the production of it's main export commodity (crude oil), so that the market price will go down and finally result in less revenues for that country? Because of the sanctions, Saudi crude is now trading at a hefty premium to the Brent crude prices. Fortunately, the Europeans are picking up the bill, as most of the Asian buyers have shifted to crude from Russia, Iran and Iraq. You can check the prices here:

https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/#prices

What touches me in the behavior of the victims of Russian propaganda is that even the original speech of the information carrier is "not true"! But the opinion of an "expert" built on propaganda stuffing is an undeniable truth ))

I will say this - if a person refuses reality and lives on far-fetched fakes - this is his personal problem. Also, his personal problem is cognitive dissonance, which he will sooner or later get, because. propaganda fakes will always be destroyed by reality. I look at such people with a smile - after all, sooner or later they have real problems, in real life, although in "pleasant soul" fakes everything should be fine

Some part's of Africa will strive surely in turbulent times since they less producers of almost every fvckn stuff's they use and consumes.
Zimbabwe's a good place that produces  and grows its own food they are big farmers when it comes to Agriculture in general, I'm not sure if they import them fertilizers used for farming by the way. But they can improvise by generating its own manures artificially using dead matters ( dead animals and plants all together in a pit dugged far away from them farms if not even close )

Nigerians are also good farmers but lately everyone looking for quick funds and have dumped Agriculture for quick cash not knowing that in the next ten years humans will still eat food. Honestly, Agriculture is a good investment if the right things are done.
We have some pretty good farmers in the Western part of Nigeria and also a part in the South called (Uyo).

I hesitate to predict these things but I can tell you that there are good plans in motion to prevent the catastrophe in both West Asia (aka Middle east) and Africa, at least Northern part. One of the plans is Iran increasing its production, recently we received 1 million hectare of fertile land for agriculture in one of the best places for it in Venezuela. That alone is equal to between 16% to 20% of what Ukraine used to produce (3-4 ton).
There are other similar cases.

Considering the fact that the domestic needs are already met, this extra production would most probably be sold in West Asia and Africa.

I can't say what is considered "pressing" but on multiple occasions different politicians have told Zelensky to give up territories to Russia without resistance to end the war. The biggest example I can think of is the French president Emmanuel Macron.

Your numbers doesn't make sense. Saudi Arabia currently produces around 11 million barrels of oil per day. They can add another 2 million at the most (which I doubt), but this is not enough to replace the 11 million barrels that Russia pump every day.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-20/saudi-arabia-reveals-oil-output-is-near-its-ceiling


The first additions (very small albeit) are being planned for 2024 and it is still 2 years away. Most of the net additions are being scheduled for 2025-27. To summarize, Biden returned from Saudi Arabia empty handed. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman told him to GTFO.

For pretending to be adequate, I bring the information:
- "Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman agreed to increase production by about 4 million barrels per day - up to 13 million during a speech at the opening of the summit with Arab leaders," i.e. 1 million per year, starting in 2023. Converging? I continue

- "In a joint statement, Biden noted that Saudi Arabia has committed itself to maintaining the balance of the global oil market for stable economic growth. The kingdom will also increase oil production by 50% in July and August. This is expected to stabilize markets and prices. for oil." - you, as if adequate and not an idiot, understand what they are doing? July / August + 50% to current production - to form a reserve, most likely in the EU, in preparation for a ban on the supply of terrorist oil from January 2023. And then a systematic increase in production, with full compensation for the full need of the EU during the year. At the same time, you will soon find out that more oil will come to the EU market from ... Well, let it be a surprise for you .... September / October is not so long to wait already
But by mid-2023, it seems that Russia will pay extra to China and India to take their oil. Laugh "the smartest"

Yes, for the rest of your propaganda nonsense from this post, I just feel sorry for wasting time! Let your post remain just in history so that you can add up your portrait

Tell me, what is the source of this information about the hope of the Russians for a lightning blitzkrieg? I don't know of any statements from Russia that they expected to complete this operation in 3-5 days, maybe you can tell me? Or is this a common lie of Ukrainian propaganda?

At the end of April, Ukraine had a chance to end this armed conflict, when the negotiations in Istanbul turned out to be fruitful and common ground was found between the parties. Then Russia, as a gesture of goodwill, withdrew its troops from Kyiv and immediately received a provocation in Bucha.

We can wait 2-3 years, time works for Russia. The problem for Ukraine is that its territorial losses after the breakdown of negotiations at the end of April will no longer be limited to the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Now Russia needs the entire south of Ukraine for a land corridor in Transnistria. Odessa is a Russian city. Nikolaev, Dnepropetrovsk, Kharkiv and Kherson too. And you will have to learn to live in this new reality.

@be.open. By heavy losses on the part of Ukraine, I primarily meant the heavy losses of the civilian population and the destruction of civilian infrastructure, which the Russians are deliberately destroying in this war. Having failed to destroy the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the Russian invaders began to systematically destroy the civilian population, including the elderly, women and children, especially pro-Ukrainian ones, in order to simply intimidate the Ukrainians and break their will to resist. These are purely fascist methods ...

Now about the successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. On February 24, Russia, without declaring war, attacked the northern, eastern and southern parts of Ukraine, including from Belarus, with the forces of eight of its most prepared armies for the attack, totaling up to 200,000 soldiers and officers. Moreover, all this army moved to Ukraine with endless columns of armored troops and other military special equipment. The calculation was for a quick, within 3-5 days, the capture of the main territory of Ukraine and a violent change of power in Ukraine. But a month later, Russian troops suffered a significant defeat in manpower and equipment and were forced to flee from the central and northern regions of Ukraine so as not to be completely defeated. Thus ended the first stage of this war, and this was the undoubted success of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and all Ukrainians.

After that, having received a good rebuff and realizing that they could not capture all of Ukraine, the Putin regime concentrated the main blow on the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine in order to first of all completely capture the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine and, if possible, build a land corridor not only to the occupied since 2014 Crimea, but also Transnistria. But Russia has not yet fulfilled these already limited goals. Now Ukraine has a front with a total length of 2,450 kilometers, and the "second army of the world" has lost almost all of its elite troops and the best military equipment in Ukraine. We can say that the Russian offensive has almost run out of steam. The shortage in Russia is felt both in manpower and in technology. Russia has already thrown almost all of its reserves into Ukraine, while exposing all its regions militarily, and they are being successfully crushed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Russia removes from conservation and throws into Ukraine even the old T-62 tanks, which have been in service since the 50s of the last century, and is arming the new replenishment with Mosin rifles of the 1891 model.

During the five months of the war, Russia was unable to achieve any significant success at the front. Of the 25 regional centers of Ukraine, Russian troops only in the first days of a large-scale offensive were able to capture, with little or no resistance, only the regional center Kherson, which the Armed Forces of Ukraine are going to liberate in the near future.

During this time, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russia lost 38,550 of its soldiers and officers alone in the dead. According to Russia itself, which is not made public, such losses amount to more than 54,000, and taking into account the wounded, this figure has already exceeded one hundred thousand people. At the same time, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 1,691 Russian tanks, 3,892 armored vehicles, 220 aircraft, 188 helicopters, 831 artillery systems, 249 MLRS, 113 air defense systems, 2,767 military vehicles, 693 UAVs, 15 ships and boats were destroyed.

And this is just the beginning. After receiving only a dozen HIMARS MLRS from the United States, over the past two weeks, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have destroyed over 20 different Russian ammunition depots. Because of this, the Russian ammunition depots are removed from the front line by 90 km, which greatly complicates their delivery to the front line, which is why they experience significant difficulties and their offensive is almost bogged down.
Let's see what happens in another two or three months.

And what can Ukraine offer Russia in exchange for a ceasefire other than complete surrender? I do not think that a temporary truce will be of interest to Russia when its current military doctrine is showing its effectiveness. In addition, Odessa has a bill for the House of Trade Unions in 2014, and Ukraine will have to pay this bill in full.

Once again.. agreeing to a ceasefire is not a surrender. At this point, I don't see any benefit for Ukraine in continuing with the war. Ever day, they are suffering from around 200 military deaths. Some of the officials want to fight to the last Ukrainian, but is that the citizens really want? If a ceasefire is agreed at this point, then most probably Ukraine will be able to keep provinces such as Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Odessa and Mykolaiv. The longer this war lasts, the probability of territorial losses increase. Without the industrial heartland of East Ukraine, the survival of the country will be at risk in the long term.