Topic: who Want To Bet On 2024 USA elections? - page 23. (Read 6913 times)

Yeah, I think most people were not expecting Trump to be president back then.

Now it's a different story because there's a precedent.

We will have to simply wait and see what happens.

This has more twists than a Venezuelan telenovela.

A friend of a friend of mine was saying Trump would win the election and I was saying no way, Hillary would win. It was long time ago, back in the 2016. I was so confident that I accepted his bet, $100(I was a bit drunk), and was expecting to win the money. We all know what happened. Since then I'm betting only what I can afford to lose even if I "know" the outcome "for sure". And don't gamble when you are drunk, guys.

What happens is that the USA has Always been Characterized by Showing Strength, when they have attacked they have shown Only part of their arsenal and it Seems that gives them more repute worldwide and so what intrigues me the most is that when they do it like this, so there is no violation of human rights, they do not ban the USA or go , so I am not one of Those who likes Violence under any aspect, neither from the USA nor from any Country that has a strong arsenal, because I believe that things are not they are fixed under the influence of who is stronger and who is not , I think that things Should be fixed in another way, right now what is very Fashionable is to ban several countries just because they did not Participate in the 2nd World war , Something that It seems absurd to me, so in this order of ideas things can happen as they are , but I am not in favor of that , now the USA with Biden I think what I like the most is that he is not a person who Seeks wars , he is not Involved in They don't even want to do them to anyone, they avoid them, during Trump's mandate he gets along well with Putin, which was somewhat Controlled , so now the Conflict between Ukraine and Russia is something that I don't Accept.

Now, we are people who have Currently seen Everything that has happened with respect to Trump and everything that many Politicians have Attacked him , we know that in the USA everything is Managed based on Powers , if someone is a friend of a Head of an Organization , A simple favor to be done to him, just call Trump to appear before a judge, because that's the way things are, well, not only in the USA but in any part of the world it is like that , Apart from the fact that Trump made a terrible mistake by taking documentation from nuclear nature to his Residence and things Cannot be done that Way, Because it is a very big sin , and they can lend themselves to many things, some may claim that he is a spy to be able to pass information to another country, things can be seen that way It is normal, because als things can be given to think whatever.

It is a personal thing, I assume. I think it is more fun to engage in a political bet with someone you can personally deal face to face, it does not have to be politics, in general when comes also to sport betting I can imagine all of us has been in a situation where a friend says a team is going to easily win, but we consider that team to be pretty bad, so a chance to bet against each other ensues. It is pretty common and it would be even more common if people were more honest and honored their debts.  

I am not saying that it is for everyone, of course, specially those who like to keep a low profile on their gambling and betting activities, it is better for them just to stay in their favorite platform. Though, if I can, I will likely bet on this incoming USA election with some people I have met lately and who are passionate enough to put their money where their mouth is. Let us see who all turns out.  

Why not just bet on platforms and not against someone you know personally? Politics is a very sensitive topic for people, I don't even wanna talk about it with elders who are die-hard fans and constantly hitting Trump. Politics always spoils a barbeque party and you may not be able to enforce payment when betting on an election with them. Unless you bet against a Lannister. 

This is interesting for Indians I believe because of Ramaswamy or Kamala but most of all the geopolitics which Modi had been playing around on 2 super powers.

Betting vs people you know in real life on politics is just asking for trouble.  If they were perfectly level headed then sure but losing both the election and a bet on it, this means likely a big argument.   You will never hear the end of it and thats not worth the money.    I wouldnt do it personally.

DeSantis   is only 44, thats incredibly young imo for a person to run for President, I know its possible but still on the extremes of what normally occurs.   DeSantis  will not hitch his wagon to Trumps fate in his last few years, he might play the game of trying to get Trump supporters to see him as a successor of sorts but theres only so far I think he wants any association with that flaming barrel of oil which is Trump campaign, good or bad its not a good idea in risk terms and Im sure his staff have told him as much.
  I think the odds of and whole Trump idea peaks and then declines, even Trump himself likely does not truly want the job & office mostly just the avoidance of charges it might allow.

It is kind of easy just to find some trusted third party to serve as escrow, besides usually it is easier to bet with co workers than friends, since both people share paydays and know it is very unlikely they will just quit a job to run away from a bet debt.

Actually, at work I have seen people (including the very boss) to set bets with other employees, they always comply. I don't know, perhaps I just interact with people who are used to honor their debts and bets, It may be the exception and not a general rule.

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Even if Bitcoin was not a thing, people would continue to bet and gamble underground with FIAT. It is quite difficult activity to enforce in reality.

Also, I can understand people around you do not care about politics as you do, it happens around here as well. But people in India are still interested on national politics or they prefer to focus on daily problems which are not as transcendental as geopolitics? Is the average Indian fellow not into politics?

To be fair betting is illegal in many nations, but we still do it thanks to crypto without letting our governments know about it. It's finding people who know about politics that is hard. Like for example if I told anyone what they think about this Georgia governor situation, they wouldn't know a single thing about it and wouldn't even know why I am asking that. They do know Trump and Biden because they are/were president of USA, knowing them is easy.

But, most wouldn't even know who Bernie Sanders is. This is why I think it's very tough to find people to talk about this. These topics are great, we could at least use our information regarding the politics of USA as well as we possibly could, and that's the important part.

But how do you actually bet with normal people?

Like, how do you actually enforce the payment?

Usually these people are probably your friends, so you will end up losing the friends and the money.

Oh really? I had no idea gambling/betting was de jure illegal in India, I thought it had relatively similar laws as other Asian countries.
Leaving that to one side, if you have had bad experiences with those person to person bets, then I would certainly not recommend you to try again, its ones money which is at stake, after all.

By the way, I know that India is a big country and certainly is centered around national issues and politics, however there is so many people there that it is just a matter of statistics to find another person like you, who is well informed about geopolitics and how it can affect your own society, after all, India and the USA have been commercial partner for a very long time. 

As long as USA keeps on interfering with other nations, I will keep on disliking them. That is such a terrible thing to do, let people be ruled however they want in their own nation, even if it is a dictatorship, if they are so brave about going to nations and "bringing democracy" to a nation, I would love to see them try that with China, they won't because that would be a nation that could fire back. They find these poorer nations and destabilize them, make money from it and just leave it to hell.

No nation that USA ever attacked got better after the attack, look at Iraq, they were terrible before them, and even worse after them, look at Afghanistan ffs, they are literally ruled by idiots. So whenever USA attacks somewhere, it is wrong, I don't care what reason they may provide.

Hmm... interesting idea. But where I live, I hardly find anyone with adequate knowledge on topics in which I place my bets. And even when I find someone, almost always that individual is against the idea of placing bets (here in India, gambling is de jure illegal). And also, betting one to one may not be a good idea. It can be done, if a reliable third party acts as an escrow. But if that is not the case, there is no guarantee that the person who loses the bet will honor the previous agreement and pay up. This has happened to me once, so I know how complicated it is going to be.

Got a question for you guys.
Does anyone one of you know someone in real life who knows as much foreign politics as you do? If so, have you considered to bet personally with people know you regarding this incoming USA elections?

In my case, there are some people I know who are pretty much into international politics and the American situation, so I have seriously toyed with the idea on betting against them on this election, besides going with casino options. It would not be as much money as I would trust a reputable casino or betting platform, though.

has anyone there considered to do the same thing with family members, friends or co workers?

Could paint him as the hero or not, to his die-hard fans, it sure would portray him as some beaten hero that needs the public's outcry to be released and be allowed to serve again. To everyone who has a little bit of common sense left to them, they'd see this candidacy of his as the spitting image of disrespect to American democracy. How great would it be for someone that's a convicted individual to have a place in the highest seat of power in the country?

If things go well, which they rarely do, we might see a new face in the white house, if not then I guess every country that is america or is allied to it is fucked royally, no way around it honestly.

It's 200M plus impressions, not views. I had made the distinction in my previous post because the Fox debate had something like 15M viewers, whereas the Tucker Carlson interview had gotten ~15 views. Not every impression translated to a view, and viewers on TV networks are worth more than a view on social media.

DeSantis would not serve as Trump's VP. They've clashed too many times and DeSantis's political career would be polluted by Trump.

Vivek is playing for a VP spot or some position in Trump's administration. I don't see him as a serious candidate.

His odds on the betting market have went down as of lately: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/betting-odds/2024/president/

Biden administration has progressively brought back the policy of forced regime change in third world nations, something that was abandoned during the Trump regime (2016-20). And they have intervened not just in Pakistan, but also in several other countries. That said, I am not sure whether the protest by Americans of Pakistani origin will have any impact. As far as I know, there are sections of people who are in favor of the Imran Khan regime, however there are also sizable numbers who favor the current regime (headed by Shehbaz Sharif of the PML-N).

Although overseas citizens have voting right but mainly it is the vote of the US citizens who can make or break any presidential candidate win or lose in the elections. I do not think that such a small community can have any significant impact on the elections.

To be frank, right now it is hard for to guess who will win this 2024 elections. The Biden government have increases interest rates throughout the last few months which have help to fight against the inflation and this act of him may benefit him to get more votes as compared to the other candidates.

There is one trend that is being popular in my country and that is that overseas Pakistanis in the US will NOT be voting for Joe Biden and the reason is that he is the one who was responsible for regime change in our country without the will of the Public of Pakistan.



I do not know how much it will influence the result of this US election but still, if anyone is betting on the election, he can take this factor into account as well.

The big question was whether Trump would benefit from the conviction drama or not. And I guess we have the definite answer by now. An array of opinion pollsters are now showing Donald Trump with a big lead over Joe Biden in nation-wide polling. The one from Emerson puts Trump at 46%, compared to 44% for Biden, while the poll from New York Post has Trump ahead by 3 points (Biden-41%, Trump-44%). Biden had a comfortable lead two weeks ago, but the situation has now reversed. Still, it would be premature to reach a conclusion. We need to wait for a few more weeks to see whether the poll numbers stay the same.

It will be funny as hell if a suspect in a criminal trial and possibly a serving prisoner in detention wins both the nomination and eventual presidency.  You couldn't make that up, this is peak memes no other section of history has been this ridiculous surely or not that we remember, maybe the Roman empire from some things I have read.
  More important then the story headlines is that there is talk of excluding Trump from being able to run, disqualifying him via the 14th amendment if I remember rightly.   I think thats basically incorrect because its not yet a conviction.    I dont even think he ever goes to jail even if convicted, essentially he never did enough from my view point but in any case regardless they are far more likely to send him to house arrest as has happened in France with their former president over corruption charges I believe.

Thats alot of traffic, I wasnt thinking there are even that many active voters.  Often the turn out rate is quite poor in many countries, we discuss negatives in many ways but ironically all these headlines make for involvement of a larger section of society probably.   Democratically you want as many people to vote as possibly, who would have guessed it would be at the same time the entire process is called into question for its validity.     I think the numbers being high means we have no shortage of places offering odds for all candidates.
   The other point I wanted to make is to exclude anyone as a valid choice at this point seems incorrect.  Obama and Trump share the burden of being nobody candidates, neither was especially long term valid in their lead up to being elected.   Traditional politics and the path taken to power is well laid down and in these last few decades been upset to the point anyone can win, thats my conclusion.