who Want To Bet On 2024 USA elections? - page 26.

nullama

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Quote from: Gyfts on August 16, 2023, 12:44:23 PM

~snip~
With the new Georgia indictment, it's looking like it will be an electoral disaster for Trump. Brian Kemp, Georgia Governor, is at a odds with Trump and Kemp won his reelection in 2022 by solid margins, and he beat a Trump backed Republican who tried to primary Kemp.

Having read the indictment, I'm doubtful there exist evidence that would convict Trump of the charges beyond any reasonable doubt (the standard for American criminal trials). Of course that doesn't matter. It's meant to interfere with the election, the radical Fulton county DA has made sure of this. The charges would be more appropriate on the federal level anyways.

Say Trump gets convicted in Georgia state court, he wouldn't even be able to pardon himself on the federal level for state charges if he were to win. The Georgia governor wouldn't be able to pardon him either. A panel in Georgia would have to decide that.

The US allows for a president to be elected from jail.

And that might be exactly what we might see in this coming election.

Reality is getting stranger by the year.

Also, the US is such a divided country at the moment, it could go either way.

Hispo

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Quote from: Sithara007 on August 16, 2023, 09:58:16 PM

Quote from: Hispo on August 16, 2023, 05:39:33 PM

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..The advantage with Trump is that he says what the GOP base wants to hear. Afterall, he is a businessman and knows how to fool people.

Now only that, I believe he first started to say what people in the right political spectrum wanted to listen; when he started to talk about immigration and building a wall along all the southern border, but now it has become something else. He used his talent as a businessperson to sell ideas to his base which are not longer aligned with the core values of the Republican party, as you mention.

In the 2000-2010, I recall GOP being about conservative politics, small government, law and order. Since Trump came and seized control over the presidency both politicians in the house and senate have supported Donald, even when talking about using the government as a personal tool to achieve his own purposes, the capitol riot, ect. The only thing which continues to be the same is the tax cuts on the rich.

Now we have already reached a point where he has got four full indictments, I don't expect people to realize what kind of person he is yet.

beerlover

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Quote from: Iroh on August 15, 2023, 03:04:03 AM

I didn’t know it’s now compulsory for the president to visit states that just suffered and trying to recover from a disaster. He has approved federal funding to try and help them get past this crisis. You also want him to visit there along with his entourage and have resources that would be utilized due to his visit when they could be put to a more better use.

Yes, a lot of conspiracy theories are all over the internet cause of the fire and I would say it’s mostly being spread around by right wing nuts. Without any real evidence, these theories are baseless and should be rightfully ignored.
According to the article you shared, she was initially denied access out of respect for the folks who are there seeking help and safety. And she was later granted access but without her camera crew. Apparently, there’s a no media policy that’s in place.

I’m not surprised by all the fake outrage. Even if Biden visited Maui, Republicans would look for something else(mostly irrelevant things) to use in criticizing the president.

This is how politics works, you may have your favorite candidate murder a person, and your opponent slap a person, and you would defend your candidate murdering and you would condemn the opponent for slapping. Republican party is the "party of family values" that is rooting for the guy who was having an affair with a pornstar while his wife was in labor, imagine the level of immorality there, the guy was in a hotel room with a pornstar while his wife was giving birth to their kid.

When you realize that, you realize that we are talking about nothing fair anymore. Nobody cares how bad your own guy is, they only care about the fact that it is not going to be acceptable at all for the other candidate to win, it is just not acceptable to them.

Sithara007

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Quote from: Hispo on August 16, 2023, 05:39:33 PM

That is exactly what Chris Christie has been trying to achieve since he got into the Presidential run. He has been trying to show people it is possible to frontally attack Trump in the media and during political speeches, but other candidates still refuse to take any lead from him. They continue to be scared of their future within the party.

It would be quite ironic if some Republican who is going for the nomination ends up stealing the race as Trump did back in 2016, in a very unexpected way. Though I am not sure what kind of speech and talking points would be required to catch the attention of the average Red voter; they have further moved to the right side of the political spectrum and they do not seem to be willing to change.

Republican voters might have moved to the right side of the spectrum (similar to the case with Democrat voters who have moved to the left). But Trump is not exactly right-wing. He is not even religious, unlike the case with Cruz and Rubio. The advantage with Trump is that he says what the GOP base wants to hear. Afterall, he is a businessman and knows how to fool people. For GOP, it is now or never. Another nomination for Trump (even after the failure in 2020) would mean deviating from their core principles and getting demoted to being a party that is centered around an individual.

Hispo

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Quote from: Sithara007 on August 16, 2023, 12:56:38 PM

Quote from: Hispo on August 16, 2023, 11:48:10 AM

Oh yes I remember that, Ted Cruz got personally attacked by Trump into submission and He stole his chances of getting elected, to the point of Ted getting forced to endorse Trump to save whatever was left of his political career.

Yes, I agree with you there is still a long path ahead, but Trump has already proven himself to be skillful enough not to loose his grip on the Republican voters. Ironically, this political situation could have been avoided if the GOP united together against him after the Jan 6th episode. When I have got some time ill see if the odds in some casinos have either decreased or increased a bit after this 4th indictment. Keeping in mind the amount of evidence and the severity of this arrest.

By the way, I recall when Tucker Carlson talked regarding of his political plans and made clear that he does not intend to run against Trump, but he may do when Trump politically expire.

... At this point, everyone should have put up an united front and kicked Trump out of GOP.

That is exactly what Chris Christie has been trying to achieve since he got into the Presidential run. He has been trying to show people it is possible to frontally attack Trump in the media and during political speeches, but other candidates still refuse to take any lead from him. They continue to be scared of their future within the party.

It would be quite ironic if some Republican who is going for the nomination ends up stealing the race as Trump did back in 2016, in a very unexpected way. Though I am not sure what kind of speech and talking points would be required to catch the attention of the average Red voter; they have further moved to the right side of the political spectrum and they do not seem to be willing to change.

Sithara007

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Quote from: Hispo on August 16, 2023, 11:48:10 AM

Oh yes I remember that, Ted Cruz got personally attacked by Trump into submission and He stole his chances of getting elected, to the point of Ted getting forced to endorse Trump to save whatever was left of his political career.

Yes, I agree with you there is still a long path ahead, but Trump has already proven himself to be skillful enough not to loose his grip on the Republican voters. Ironically, this political situation could have been avoided if the GOP united together against him after the Jan 6th episode. When I have got some time ill see if the odds in some casinos have either decreased or increased a bit after this 4th indictment. Keeping in mind the amount of evidence and the severity of this arrest.

By the way, I recall when Tucker Carlson talked regarding of his political plans and made clear that he does not intend to run against Trump, but he may do when Trump politically expire.

The turning point was when Trump refused to campaign for David Perdue in Georgia after he lost the POTUS elections. In the first round Perdue got 49.7% of the vote and just missed an outright win by a few votes. But in the second round, Trump refused to campaign for him and he ended up with just 49.4% of the votes, thereby giving Jon Ossoff of the Democratic party an upset win. Shane T. Hazel of the Libertarian party received 2.32% of the vote in the first round. A majority of those votes went to GOP in the second round. Yet they lost, because Trump refused to campaign for them. At this point, everyone should have put up an united front and kicked Trump out of GOP.

Gyfts

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Quote from: nullama on August 13, 2023, 12:17:31 AM

Quote from: Gyfts on August 12, 2023, 08:30:39 PM

...

With the new Georgia indictment, it's looking like it will be an electoral disaster for Trump. Brian Kemp, Georgia Governor, is at a odds with Trump and Kemp won his reelection in 2022 by solid margins, and he beat a Trump backed Republican who tried to primary Kemp.

Having read the indictment, I'm doubtful there exist evidence that would convict Trump of the charges beyond any reasonable doubt (the standard for American criminal trials). Of course that doesn't matter. It's meant to interfere with the election, the radical Fulton county DA has made sure of this. The charges would be more appropriate on the federal level anyways.

Say Trump gets convicted in Georgia state court, he wouldn't even be able to pardon himself on the federal level for state charges if he were to win. The Georgia governor wouldn't be able to pardon him either. A panel in Georgia would have to decide that.

Hispo

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Quote from: Sithara007 on August 15, 2023, 09:14:15 PM

Quote from: Hispo on August 15, 2023, 11:50:55 AM

✂✂✂✂
I just heard that Trump got indicted a 4th time because of his alleged crimes in Georgia, his support may continue to go up among Republicans. Things are going to continue to get messy as 2024 gets closer...

There is still more than a year to go for the elections and we can't make any predictions at this point. If you remember, Trump back in 2016 had announced his candidature quite late. Till then Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio were favored to win the nomination. Trump announced his candidacy in June 2015, and it took some time for him to get traction. On the other hand Cruz and Rubio were in the race months earlier. By late 2015 Trump was leading the opinion polls and he kept that lead till the end. So hopefully by the end of this year, we will get a clear picture.

Oh yes I remember that, Ted Cruz got personally attacked by Trump into submission and He stole his chances of getting elected, to the point of Ted getting forced to endorse Trump to save whatever was left of his political career.

Yes, I agree with you there is still a long path ahead, but Trump has already proven himself to be skillful enough not to loose his grip on the Republican voters. Ironically, this political situation could have been avoided if the GOP united together against him after the Jan 6th episode. When I have got some time ill see if the odds in some casinos have either decreased or increased a bit after this 4th indictment. Keeping in mind the amount of evidence and the severity of this arrest.

By the way, I recall when Tucker Carlson talked regarding of his political plans and made clear that he does not intend to run against Trump, but he may do when Trump politically expire.

Sithara007

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Quote from: Hispo on August 15, 2023, 11:50:55 AM

✂✂✂✂
I just heard that Trump got indicted a 4th time because of his alleged crimes in Georgia, his support may continue to go up among Republicans. Things are going to continue to get messy as 2024 gets closer...

There is still more than a year to go for the elections and we can't make any predictions at this point. If you remember, Trump back in 2016 had announced his candidature quite late. Till then Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio were favored to win the nomination. Trump announced his candidacy in June 2015, and it took some time for him to get traction. On the other hand Cruz and Rubio were in the race months earlier. By late 2015 Trump was leading the opinion polls and he kept that lead till the end. So hopefully by the end of this year, we will get a clear picture.

Hispo

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Quote from: Sithara007 on August 15, 2023, 05:16:38 AM

An opinion poll on Republican nomination was released by Cygnal yesterday. It was quite surprising. Trump is still having a clear lead, with 53% support from the Republicans. However, DeSantis has lost his second position to Vivek Ramaswamy. Ramaswamy is now one point ahead of DeSantis (11% vs 10%). Quite an achievement, given the fact that Ramaswamy was polling 1%-2% a few weeks back. There is a sudden spike in his favor and it needs to be seen whether he is able to maintain the momentum. I still don't believe that he will be able to beat Donald Trump in the primaries. But if by some chance Trump is unable to run, then it will get interesting.

I knew that De Santis has lost much of his support during these latest months, but I would have not expected him to drop from the second time to the third one.
If other polls also shows De Santis going third place, there may the possibility Vivek may receive some money from donators and Republican supporters who have felt disappointed with De Santis performance.

I just heard that Trump got indicted a 4th time because of his alleged crimes in Georgia, his support may continue to go up among Republicans. Things are going to continue to get messy as 2024 gets closer...

Sithara007

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An opinion poll on Republican nomination was released by Cygnal yesterday. It was quite surprising. Trump is still having a clear lead, with 53% support from the Republicans. However, DeSantis has lost his second position to Vivek Ramaswamy. Ramaswamy is now one point ahead of DeSantis (11% vs 10%). Quite an achievement, given the fact that Ramaswamy was polling 1%-2% a few weeks back. There is a sudden spike in his favor and it needs to be seen whether he is able to maintain the momentum. I still don't believe that he will be able to beat Donald Trump in the primaries. But if by some chance Trump is unable to run, then it will get interesting.

Iroh

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Quote from: Sithara007 on August 14, 2023, 10:04:18 PM

What prevents Biden from visiting Hawaii? Even the local Democrat leaders have criticized Biden's handling this time. When Justin Sink (Bloomberg White House correspondent) interviewed Biden during the beach getaway, Biden just said "no comment" when asked about the Hawaii disaster. BTW, a lot of conspiracy theories are floating around in the social media. Some of them are claiming that the residents of Lāhainā were targeted deliberately for their refusal to sell real estate to billionaires. Celebrities such as Oprah Winfrey own large plots of real estate near the affected area. BTW, authorities denied permission for a PR exercise from Oprah, after she reached one of the shelters with TV crew:

https://news.sky.com/story/hawaii-wildfires-oprah-winfrey-turned-away-from-shelter-as-death-toll-rises-12939060

I didn’t know it’s now compulsory for the president to visit states that just suffered and trying to recover from a disaster. He has approved federal funding to try and help them get past this crisis. You also want him to visit there along with his entourage and have resources that would be utilized due to his visit when they could be put to a more better use.

Yes, a lot of conspiracy theories are all over the internet cause of the fire and I would say it’s mostly being spread around by right wing nuts. Without any real evidence, these theories are baseless and should be rightfully ignored.
According to the article you shared, she was initially denied access out of respect for the folks who are there seeking help and safety. And she was later granted access but without her camera crew. Apparently, there’s a no media policy that’s in place.

I’m not surprised by all the fake outrage. Even if Biden visited Maui, Republicans would look for something else(mostly irrelevant things) to use in criticizing the president.

Sithara007

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Quote from: retreat on August 14, 2023, 10:23:03 PM

Biden is not much worse than Trump, but Trump is quite better than Biden even though there is a lot of controversy surrounding him but in his government we don't see unreasonable things like donations to other countries where the country needs more, defaults several times, and many Other things. If Biden runs again as a candidate in 2024, I am pessimistic that he will win again given what he has done for America.

First of all, it is difficult to compare Trump with Biden. Former is a businessman with no previous experience in politics, while the latter is a career politician with almost 50 years of experience. Despite the lack of experience, Trump managed to stimulate the American economy. Stock markets were at all-time high, and unemployment rate was very low. Trump was strictly against foreign interventions, while Biden regime went back to the previous policy of intervening in third world nations. If Trump was the president, then the Russo-Ukrainian war would have been over by now.

nullama

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Quote from: retreat on August 14, 2023, 10:23:03 PM

~snip~
Biden is not much worse than Trump, but Trump is quite better than Biden even though there is a lot of controversy surrounding him but in his government we don't see unreasonable things like donations to other countries where the country needs more, defaults several times, and many Other things. If Biden runs again as a candidate in 2024, I am pessimistic that he will win again given what he has done for America.

Biden already announced that he is going to run for the 2024 election months ago:

Quote from: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/-joe-biden-president-election-2024-campaign-announcement-rcna80990

Biden announces he is running for re-election, framing 2024 as a choice between 'more rights or fewer'

And I think most bets put him slightly higher than Trump at the moment.

retreat

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Quote from: mindrust on August 11, 2023, 12:17:17 AM

Biden took every wrong step in the book. Ruined the economy, started a war, went full woke... People in the US are fed up with his bullshit. People don't care about a war in the other continent. They don't want to send money to a Ukrainan guy which they don't know or care about.

People want lower oil prices, a peaceful life where illegal immigrants don't exist and a life where men and women get along well.

But people in the US failed this IQ test before so it is not impossible for Biden to win again.

Biden is not much worse than Trump, but Trump is quite better than Biden even though there is a lot of controversy surrounding him but in his government we don't see unreasonable things like donations to other countries where the country needs more, defaults several times, and many Other things. If Biden runs again as a candidate in 2024, I am pessimistic that he will win again given what he has done for America.

Sithara007

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Quote from: Iroh on August 13, 2023, 11:14:58 PM

You do know that the Governor of the affected state has to first hand in a request to the president to declare that a major disaster has occurred in the state and then, the presidents declaration activates federal help to the affected state. I wonder how you think Biden was negligent when he immediately approved Hawaii cry for federal help.
Yes, isn’t that what Trump and the GOP does? Wait for something bad to happen and capitalize on it without having any solutions themselves. When Puerto Rico was ravaged by a hurricane in 2017, what did he do? Withhold aid initially and later travelled there himself to literally throw paper towels at the crowd.

What prevents Biden from visiting Hawaii? Even the local Democrat leaders have criticized Biden's handling this time. When Justin Sink (Bloomberg White House correspondent) interviewed Biden during the beach getaway, Biden just said "no comment" when asked about the Hawaii disaster. BTW, a lot of conspiracy theories are floating around in the social media. Some of them are claiming that the residents of Lāhainā were targeted deliberately for their refusal to sell real estate to billionaires. Celebrities such as Oprah Winfrey own large plots of real estate near the affected area. BTW, authorities denied permission for a PR exercise from Oprah, after she reached one of the shelters with TV crew:

https://news.sky.com/story/hawaii-wildfires-oprah-winfrey-turned-away-from-shelter-as-death-toll-rises-12939060

Hispo

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Quote from: Sithara007 on August 13, 2023, 09:45:09 PM

Looks like hundreds of people have died in the Hawaii wildfires and Biden administration was very lax, at least during the initial phases. Official death toll is still 93, but according to media it may rise exponentially. Hawaii is still a deep blue territory, but the impact will be felt across the other states in the US. Opinion polls that will be released in the coming days may provide a better picture on how much the ground situation has changed. This is an ideal opportunity for Donald Trump and the rest of the GOP to swing the momentum in their favor.

I have seen pictures of those wildfires in Hawaii and I must way it was not something I would have expected to happen. I am accustomed to see news of that kinds coming from California or other western States.

To be honest, the GOP and specially Donald Trump has done that in the past, take advantage of a tragedy and the response the Biden administration provides or rather does not provide. It happened with the toxic train derailment some months ago. With his visit I am sure Trump managed to get thousands of new supporters in that state, on the other hand, Biden does not seem to even care to get out of bed and get his hands dirty while visiting Hawaii.

Iroh

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Quote from: Sithara007 on August 13, 2023, 09:45:09 PM

Looks like hundreds of people have died in the Hawaii wildfires and Biden administration was very lax, at least during the initial phases. Official death toll is still 93, but according to media it may rise exponentially. Hawaii is still a deep blue territory, but the impact will be felt across the other states in the US. Opinion polls that will be released in the coming days may provide a better picture on how much the ground situation has changed. This is an ideal opportunity for Donald Trump and the rest of the GOP to swing the momentum in their favor.

You do know that the Governor of the affected state has to first hand in a request to the president to declare that a major disaster has occurred in the state and then, the presidents declaration activates federal help to the affected state. I wonder how you think Biden was negligent when he immediately approved Hawaii cry for federal help.
Yes, isn’t that what Trump and the GOP does? Wait for something bad to happen and capitalize on it without having any solutions themselves. When Puerto Rico was ravaged by a hurricane in 2017, what did he do? Withhold aid initially and later travelled there himself to literally throw paper towels at the crowd.

Sithara007

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Looks like hundreds of people have died in the Hawaii wildfires and Biden administration was very lax, at least during the initial phases. Official death toll is still 93, but according to media it may rise exponentially. Hawaii is still a deep blue territory, but the impact will be felt across the other states in the US. Opinion polls that will be released in the coming days may provide a better picture on how much the ground situation has changed. This is an ideal opportunity for Donald Trump and the rest of the GOP to swing the momentum in their favor.

Hispo

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Quote from: nullama on August 13, 2023, 12:17:31 AM

Quote from: Gyfts on August 12, 2023, 08:30:39 PM

~snip~
The election in '24 will come down to Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Minnesota and Maine are not relevant, they will go democrat. FL will go Republican, NC will highly likely go Republican, so those two states are out of play too.

A candidate holding any degree of momentum will generally take most of the aforementioned states so you can look at all these states collectively. I don't see Trump winning a single swing state. Arizona and Georgia in particular were embarrassing losses for Trump in 2020, likely to be repeated in '24.

There's still a lot of time for the election, and in politics many things can happen.

The whole Trump saga might advance to a point where he is in jail by that time. That will probably affect a lot the numbers, and who knows in which direction.

These things are a bit random, and you can't really predict what people will vote in a few months.

As things has been going lately, with Trump bringing onto the table unprecedented case after unprecedented case; I would not be a surprise if he turned out winning the election while in jail and he also managed to become the first president of the United States to serve his second term from a State jail.

If you take a look at the polls, it would seem that indictments only help to keep the flames of political passions alive, in the case of the MAGA movement. So if he goes to jail and does not give up on his campaign then his popularity may still stay intact or even increase, these are weird times we are living through.

Topic: who Want To Bet On 2024 USA elections? - page 26. (Read 7009 times)