Will btc difficulty go sideways for rest of the year? - page 12.

philipma1957

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Quote from: stompix on November 08, 2018, 07:47:42 AM

Yeah, timestamps are far more accurate on what might happen that the percentage bitcoinwisdom comes up, they are down to 5.29% today, following the downtrend but still positive. I don't know how and what they are doing but they should change something

Anyhow, a 5-7% decrease would match my expectation if we take into consideration the increase in BCH price, thus migration of hashing power and nothing major coming back online. There still could be the possibility of bitmain decoupling s9s and brining s15 online but...I doubt they would do it this way, and not try to keep as much hashing power online all the time.

A jump by late November?

My guess is still flat or close to flat the need to move upwards in diff is held back by a lot of factors.

A few years ago when I ran the diff contests thread. " heinz57 " can't remember his name came up with the idea of hash spike showing future numbers. I coined a clever name for it but it was his idea.
High spike in chart below shows network to be over 57,000,000,000 gh

not the current number of
Hashrate(?): 46,724,750,622 GH/s

So this spike could mean we move to 57,000,000,000 in under 2 months.

with bitmain's new killer machine maybe so. time will tell

but the break from august 24th to Nov 15 will have been nice.

stompix

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Quote from: philipma1957 on November 07, 2018, 10:29:36 AM

The estimates don’t work well on bitcoinwisdom but. The charts with redline blue line gray line are decent.

[...]

So 2016 - 1220 = 796 made so 796/822= 0.968-1.000= - 3.32%. Real time. Not + 7

Yeah, timestamps are far more accurate on what might happen that the percentage bitcoinwisdom comes up, they are down to 5.29% today, following the downtrend but still positive. I don't know how and what they are doing but they should change something

Anyhow, a 5-7% decrease would match my expectation if we take into consideration the increase in BCH price, thus migration of hashing power and nothing major coming back online. There still could be the possibility of bitmain decoupling s9s and bringing s15 online but...I doubt they would do it this way, and not try to keep as much hashing power online all the time.

A jump by late November?

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Quote from: stompix on November 07, 2018, 07:29:58 AM

I've stopped following bitcoinwisdom a while ago, they really have some weird estimations

Quote from: philipma1957 on November 07, 2018, 10:29:36 AM

The estimates don’t work well on bitcoinwisdom but. The charts with redline blue line gray line are decent.

Yeah someone put me onto fork.lol about a year ago. Usually where I go if I'm bored andd feel like seeing what's been going on lately. Mostly because I've learned to accept Diff is going to do what Diff is going to do; So I just lay there and ~~take it~~ accept it. Currently showing - 12% but we are still more than half way there and I really don't trust them until around block 1500 ~75%, as this is usually enough data to get a close to accurate result barring any large changes in network hashrate.

Lately however it has been nice to check because as Phil has shown it's become significantly less depressing a figure for the moment.

I remember discussing the benefit of BCH for miners in February I think. I'd have to check a little more but without the BCH network we would be about 10% higher on the Difficulty. So the farms and big guys trying to float the network and battling over there own forks can keep it up.

philipma1957

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The estimates don’t work well on bitcoinwisdom but. The charts with redline blue line gray line are decent.

And the raw numbers are accurate.

We started this jump on the first of nov at about 4:35 pm eastern time. So we are five days and 17 hours in.

That is

5 x 144 = 720
6 x 17 =. 102

So we need to have made 822 blocks right now to be zero.

So 2016 - 1220 = 796 made so 796/822= 0.968-1.000= - 3.32%. Real time. Not + 7

stompix

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I've stopped following bitcoinwisdom a while ago, they really have some weird estimations
Bitcoinity is showing a totally different picture:

Current difficulty: 7,184,404,942,702
Next difficulty estimate: 7,160,506,972,780 -0.33%

So does cryptothis

Quote from: https://diff.cryptothis.com/

Latest Block:   549136 (9 minutes ago)
Current Pace:   96.9339% (785 / 809.83 expected, 24.83 behind)
Current Difficulty:   7184404942701.792XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Next Difficulty:   between 6982085294311 and 7056173928059
Next Difficulty Change:   between -2.8161% and -1.7849%

philipma1957

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Quote from: qctechno_isback on November 06, 2018, 09:08:45 PM

Bitcoin Cash fork to be forked again
https://www.investinblockchain.com/bch-hard-fork-supported-by-coinbase-binance/

More SHA256 Coins to mine, more hashrate distributions over blockchain networks
They all need SHA256 hashpower.

It can explain current BTC diff with BTC value.
If others chains are more profitable then miners follow.

well bch is up to 620 a coin.

it is a reason to keep btc diff low

and could be interesting to see what happens if BCH moves to 1000

we had crazy hash swings last year when bch took off.

qctechno_isback

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Bitcoin Cash fork to be forked again
https://www.investinblockchain.com/bch-hard-fork-supported-by-coinbase-binance/

More SHA256 Coins to mine, more hashrate distributions over blockchain networks
They all need SHA256 hashpower.

It can explain current BTC diff with BTC value.
If others chains are more profitable then miners follow.

Togacity

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Anticipating has been and dependably will be a dolts errand with regards to this industry. There are simply such a large number of factors to separate it into basic numbers like you are doing in your post. While its actual if things remain static, the standpoint is somber however I exceptionally question that will remain as such for long.

philipma1957

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Quote from: Togacity on November 06, 2018, 06:32:41 AM

Anticipating has been and dependably will be a dolts errand with regards to this industry. There are simply such a large number of factors to separate it into basic numbers like you are doing in your post. While its actual if things remain static, the standpoint is somber however I exceptionally question that will remain as such for long.

Duh Jan 1 is not long.

So If I picked up on a august 24th to Jan 1 trend good.

BTW if diff jumps through the roof so what.

there are multiple way to make money .

Finding a side movement in diff lasting August 24 to Nov 15 has real money value to some of us.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   7,184,404,942,701
Estimated Next Difficulty:   7,734,491,307,782 (+7.66%)
Adjust time:   After 1354 Blocks, About 9.1 days
Hashrate(?):   50,040,282,613 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.1 minutes
6 blocks: 58.3 minutes
Updated:

it is 4 days and 17 hours into this jump

4 x 144 = 576
6 x 17 = 102

total = 678 to be at 0%

2016
1354

662 is where we are at so we are -2.23%
yet the charts read +7.66%

so while you may think the numbers are simple many don't know that real time we are -2.23% vs bitcoinwisdom's future number of +7.66%

so there is a good chance that the sideways movement will continue to Nov 15th on a minimum.

philipma1957

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Quote from: qctechno_isback on November 05, 2018, 06:14:26 PM

Only hope for BTC diff to stay low is BCH to succeed hard fork and drain mining power with it.
A more profitable SHA256 coin should keep BTC diff reasonable.

Getting Bitmain on their knee is the end goal for mining business as I see it by keeping a low BTC value.

what are you talking about?

BCH had a hard fork more then a year ago.

As per my thread title this does not apply.

This thread is until the end of the year.

https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   7,184,404,942,701
Estimated Next Difficulty:   7,753,301,563,728 (+7.92%) we are at -0.1% this prediction
Adjust time:   After 1375 Blocks, About 9.2 days
Hashrate(?):   51,037,931,916 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.8 minutes
6 blocks: 57.6 minutes
Updated:

Difficulty History

Date   Difficulty   Change   Hash Rate

Nov 15 2018 about -0.1%

Nov 01 2018   7,184,404,942,701   0.02%   51,427,973,784 GH/s
Oct 18 2018   7,182,852,313,938   -3.65%   51,416,859,634 GH/s
Oct 04 2018   7,454,968,648,263   4.23%   53,364,744,228 GH/s
Sep 20 2018   7,152,633,351,906   1.90%   51,200,543,878 GH/s
Sep 07 2018   7,019,199,231,177   4.34%   50,245,385,237 GH/s
Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s

so far we are pretty flat with under 2 months to go.

Now bitmain has announced the S15 and T15

maybe good gear it may change curve upwards

qctechno_isback

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Only hope for BTC diff to stay low is BCH to succeed hard fork and drain mining power with it.
A more profitable SHA256 coin should keep BTC diff reasonable.

Getting Bitmain on their knee is the end goal for mining business as I see it by keeping a low BTC value.

philipma1957

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this is the last block from last jump

548351 (Main Chain)   2018-11-01 20:33:26   0000000000000000001ac75bed7eb6169255893f99de28f24e3e0e57b6f7db7b   1,240.59

this is the first block from this jump

548352 (Main Chain)   2018-11-01 20:54:16   00000000000000000013f4778796947335e3ab173b555259675be50cdfe875fa   1,361.62

here we are today

548615 (Main Chain)   2018-11-03 16:24:50   Unknown   0000000000000000000e79a80509101379eff1ee519658e28fe2cfaccdc69524   1,287.95

here is
https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty

Bitcoin Difficulty:   7,184,404,942,701
Estimated Next Difficulty:   7,706,585,183,127 (+7.27%)
Adjust time:   After 1754 Blocks, About 11.7 days
Hashrate(?):   55,306,604,890 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.6 minutes
3 blocks: 28.8 minutes
6 blocks: 57.6 minutes
Updated:

and

  2016
-1754
262 blocks in just about 44 hours

44 x 6 = 264 0 % so right now at this moment we are close to 0%

but we did see a big spike right before last jump about 180 blocks were made vs 144 so there is gear held offline or variance. still

Aug 24 2018   6,727,225,469,722   5.29%   48,155,355,642 GH/s to

Nov 01 2018   7,184,404,942,701   0.02%   51,427,973,784 GH/s

is pretty much side ways

philipma1957

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Quote from: windjc on November 02, 2018, 09:13:43 PM

New projected difficulty starting at close to 7.4%. There's been a jump.

Wait the first week as

After a week it is more accurate.

We made about 180 blocks in 30 hours. That is more or less 0%

The jump was around 4:45 pm on the first of nov.

It is about 11:45 pm on the second of nov

That is 31 hours .

2016
1837
_______
179

179/6 = 29 hours fifty minutes.

And that would mean we are negative.

We did have a spike yesterday and it made us really close to 0%
For the jump yesterday.

If you look are aug 24 to nov 1 we are pretty flat.

windjc

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Quote from: rifleman74 on November 02, 2018, 09:24:55 PM

huh?

Next Difficulty Estimated
(+0.17%) 7.20 T
Date to Next Difficulty
12 Days 11 Hours

Bitcoin Difficulty:   7,184,404,942,701
Estimated Next Difficulty:   7,715,793,097,066 (+7.40%)
Adjust time:   After 1849 Blocks, About 12.5 days
Hashrate(?):   55,648,940,750 GH/s
Block Generation Time(?):
1 block: 9.7 minutes
3 blocks: 29.1 minutes
6 blocks: 58.2 minutes

rifleman74

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Quote from: windjc on November 02, 2018, 09:13:43 PM

New projected difficulty starting at close to 7.4%. There's been a jump.

huh?

Next Difficulty Estimated
(+0.17%) 7.20 T
Date to Next Difficulty
12 Days 11 Hours

windjc

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New projected difficulty starting at close to 7.4%. There's been a jump.

Biffa

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So almost 0%

philipma1957

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We are 1 block from next jump.

for a moment we had a shot at 0.00 instead we will be negative.

we needed to hit the last block at 4:37 pm EST to have been 0.00%

So pretty good since august of this year.

philipma1957

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Quote from: Steamtyme on October 30, 2018, 04:16:24 AM

I've been looking for some more information on the Bitmain firmware for OAB.

So far what I've seen is improved efficiency at a lower hashrate (-6% I think). So I doubt it will contribute overall to an increase in network hash. Before the dip in price I expected some people to fire up their S9's that are kicking around, some may still, but not enough to make a significant impact.

I still think the flat idea will hold true until these batches of efficient gear hit the market and have a few weeks of hashing in.

Yeah we look to be -1% at the moment but to me the next jump may be a -3% fall. Making us close to the Aug 24 numbers on bitcoinwisdom

"Aug 24 2018 6,727,225,469,722 5.29% 48,155,355,642 GH/s" we may go this low and that would be nice.

Steamtyme

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I've been looking for some more information on the Bitmain firmware for OAB.

So far what I've seen is improved efficiency at a lower hashrate (-6% I think). So I doubt it will contribute overall to an increase in network hash. Before the dip in price I expected some people to fire up their S9's that are kicking around, some may still, but not enough to make a significant impact.

I still think the flat idea will hold true until these batches of efficient gear hit the market and have a few weeks of hashing in.

Topic: Will btc difficulty go sideways for rest of the year? - page 12. (Read 11858 times)