we're using up quite a lot of momentum (on RSI etc) for very little gains, so i think you're right that we're nearing a local top. i'm just not sure whether the market is headed to lower lows or not.
a higher low
similar to this teal pattern still seems like a decent possibility.
Yes, I agree, a higher low is still a possibility. What concerns me is the spread between the margin long and margin short contracts on BitFinex. Almost 5 times as many long contracts as their are short contracts. We did not have access to margin trading in 2015 when we were climbing out of Accumulation from Distribution. So, what we see here in late 2019 to early 2020 will likely set a precedent for future periods just before future block halving events after the one coming up in 2020.
Bottom Line: We are about to find out just how much influence the margin trading markets and futures markets affect the traditional spot price markets. We are about to see a lot of whales battling whales for position and acquisition of coins over the month of December and January. I'm rather anxious to see how the indicators react to all of this. The indicators in the 3-Day Time Frame currently look rather nasty; like we could come down significantly soon if and/or when the White energy drops to and/or below the 50 percent level in the 3-Day TF. Here's a look at the white energy in the 3-Day TF:
Also, it's quite possible this next drop that likely comes soon may be the last significant drop we see with a chance to drop to a lower low before we FINALLY begin to see a chance of reversal to upward pressure in higher time frames. I'm still seeing a chance of a higher low on the next drop. However, I'm leaning more towards a lower low. I'll feel more confident about reversal to upward pressure if we could just get the white energy in the 3-Week TF up to the 50 percent level. Yet, the chance for that occurring in December doesn't look good at all. Appears more likely in January, 2020.
Here's a look at the White Energy in the 3-Week TF: The current 3-Week Candle ends very soon and a new 3-Week candle begins on December 9, 2019. The next 3-Week candle after that begins on December 30, 2019. The next 3-Week Candle after that would be January 20, 2020. I'm anticipating the White Energy in the 3-Week Candle beginning December 30, 2020 to have us pretty close to the 50 percent level and we shoot up clearly above the 50 percent level in the 3-Week candle beginning January 20, 2020.
The White Energy in the Current 3-Week candle looks quite ugly at the moment. I'm looking forward to the new 3-Week candle that begins this Monday to see what the White Energy will look like then.