Wyckoff Mode Technical Analysis - page 23.

dmwardjr

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Quote from: exstasie on October 23, 2019, 05:47:16 PM

Quote from: dmwardjr on October 23, 2019, 04:37:28 PM

We could possibly have an Inverse Head & Shoulders in the works... We will find out soon enough if my 0.382 at $7,182 (Mentioned in the video) is the low before reversal.

Flash wick down into the $6,000s first, please! Tongue

I'm thinking our current position is similar to the December 3rd weekly candle, shown with the red arrow. Not the bottom (and we may not have seen the weekly low yet either) but getting close. Tagging that blue 50-week MA seems within reason:

Yes, I can see that... The Weekly 50-MA is currently sitting at $6,787.

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Quote from: dmwardjr on October 23, 2019, 04:37:28 PM

We could possibly have an Inverse Head & Shoulders in the works... We will find out soon enough if my 0.382 at $7,182 (Mentioned in the video) is the low before reversal.

Flash wick down into the $6,000s first, please! Tongue

I'm thinking our current position is similar to the December 3rd weekly candle, shown with the red arrow. Not the bottom (and we may not have seen the weekly low yet either) but getting close. Tagging that blue 50-week MA seems within reason:

dmwardjr

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We could possibly have an Inverse Head & Shoulders in the works... We will find out soon enough if my 0.382 at $7,182 (Mentioned in the video) is the low before reversal.

I adjusted the FIB's accordingly since the low changed from $7,714.70 to $7,293.55

dmwardjr

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NEW VIDEO Publication posted one hour ago; titled, "The Weekly & 5-Day TF's Do NOT Show a Deep Drop Here." https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/U9tY4PbR-The-Weekly-5-Day-TF-s-Do-NOT-Show-a-Deep-Drop-Here/

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Quote from: Wind_FURY on October 23, 2019, 03:41:09 AM

A question that begs an answer. Again, with the current market, "Is the halving really priced in?"

Or, zoom out, will 2020 be 2016 all over again? Bitcoin was "just OK"/altcoins were surging.

I don't see the Top 15 by market cap alt coins surging until January. My opinion of course.

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A question that begs an answer. Again, with the current market, "Is the halving really priced in?"

Or, zoom out, will 2020 be 2016 all over again? Bitcoin was "just OK"/altcoins were surging.

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BTCUSD - NEW CHART publication; titled, "Indicators Look More Like Dec. 2018 Than Jul. 2013 in 5-Day TF." Be sure to checkout comments section: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/HO7DIizs-Indicators-Look-More-Like-Dec-2018-Than-Jul-2013-in-5-Day-TF/

A look at ALL indicators in the 5-Day TF:

A look at ONLY the Godmode 3.1 Mod with LSMA indicator in the 5-Day TF:

dmwardjr

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Providing this to show the potential for a similar move to what's circled in Yellow with remarks in Yellow Text Bubble. The reason this could be very possible present day is because we will be coming up to test ATH (All Time High) in a similar way we tested the 2013 ATH in January of 2017. One major difference is the current price action will be only a few months before a block halving. January, 2017 was NOT before a bitcoin block halving.

A look at the Red RSI and White Energy in Godmode 3.1 Mod with LSMA:

dmwardjr

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6h (Left) and 12h (Right)... The Yellow "Basis" of the Bollinger Band in the 6h TF was at $8,056.33 at this writing. It MIGHT make it down to it before bouncing back up. However, it's also possible this acts more like a TIME correction than a PRICE correction in the 6h TF.

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Quote from: exstasie on October 21, 2019, 02:09:41 AM

Quote from: dmwardjr on October 20, 2019, 09:47:55 PM

New Video Publication for the NEW Weekly Candle; titled, "New Weekly Candle Indicates Bottom is Likely IN." https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/d5v7emKl-New-Weekly-Candle-Indicates-Bottom-is-Likely-IN/

Could be. Naturally I'm a bit biased to the downside (still hoping to get lower bids filled Tongue

). Experience has taught me patience often pays regarding waiting for shakeouts.

I'm not sure how much longer I'll keep waiting though. The daily and weekly are indeed showing resilience. This bounce looks like one of those times where classical technicians scream "shorting opportunity!" Then they get egg all over their face. Let's see how things look in a few days.

Could not have said it any better myself. Well put...

By the way, NEW VIDEO posted 11 hours ago; titled, "Falling? Nope! ... Ballin? Yup! ... More Time Frames..." https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/TWWdPgXU-Falling-Nope-Ballin-Yup-More-Time-Frames/

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Quote from: dmwardjr on October 20, 2019, 09:47:55 PM

New Video Publication for the NEW Weekly Candle; titled, "New Weekly Candle Indicates Bottom is Likely IN." https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/d5v7emKl-New-Weekly-Candle-Indicates-Bottom-is-Likely-IN/

Could be. Naturally I'm a bit biased to the downside (still hoping to get lower bids filled Tongue

). Experience has taught me patience often pays regarding waiting for shakeouts.

I'm not sure how much longer I'll keep waiting though. The daily and weekly are indeed showing resilience. This bounce looks like one of those times where classical technicians scream "shorting opportunity!" Then they get egg all over their face. Let's see how things look in a few days.

dmwardjr

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New Video Publication for the NEW Weekly Candle; titled, "New Weekly Candle Indicates Bottom is Likely IN." https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/d5v7emKl-New-Weekly-Candle-Indicates-Bottom-is-Likely-IN/

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Quote from: marky89 on October 19, 2019, 06:17:08 PM

Quote from: dmwardjr on October 18, 2019, 07:34:46 PM

Yes, I can see that as a possibility with us already having done a 1,2,3,4,5 Wave up then potential A,B, with elongated C down to low to mid $5,000's. That would take me totally by surprise but certainly possible.

Here's the thing that bothers me. Many of Bitcoin's long term bottoms had deep high volume selloffs before reversal. "V bottoms" would be one way to describe them.

I think that would call for going much deeper than the $7100s. Don't you?

I posted this 8 hours ago on TradingView: But yes, I can see your point. Which is why I made it more similar to December, 2018/January, 2019 in the chart below in an update 8 hours ago.

"I mentioned possible 'Scenarios" (plural) for this publication. The next scenario is the Primary 0.786 FIB maintaining support without a significant dip below it. Which would result in a bit more sideways price action within a tight trading range during this period of downward pressure revealed inside the indicators in the 3-Day TF in a chart above. If that were to occur (The 0.786 Primary FIB holding), the scenario marked in Green could occur."

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Quote from: dmwardjr on October 18, 2019, 07:34:46 PM

Yes, I can see that as a possibility with us already having done a 1,2,3,4,5 Wave up then potential A,B, with elongated C down to low to mid $5,000's. That would take me totally by surprise but certainly possible.

Here's the thing that bothers me. Many of Bitcoin's long term bottoms had deep high volume selloffs before reversal. "V bottoms" would be one way to describe them.

I think that would call for going much deeper than the $7100s. Don't you?

dmwardjr

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Yes, I use Fibonacci in an "unorthodox" way. HOWEVER, it works for me... Also, it's important to note that every pair has its own personality in regard to Fibonacci. One has to do their research on each pair to find a pattern (personality) of each pair.

There WILL come a time (at least in crypto) in which your pair will go "parabolic." You still use the same technique in a "bull" market. However, it's during "parabolic" times in which your 2.618 and even the 3.618 extension will be required in conjunction with "sound" indicators to get an idea of which FIB extension is likely next in line before consolidation. Here is a quick PRIME EXAMPLE of the 3.618 FIB Extension being reached WHEN the market has entered a PARABOLIC phase before reaching a "Buying Climax" in a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic.

dmwardjr

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This is an example to show you ON OCCASIONS we have an event in which the price action goes up too hard too quickly; resulting in a wick that goes up and back down to quickly to establish a clear and concise resistance level. However, the price action will eventually come back up to define that concise resistance level most of the time by going up in a more controlled/healthy behavior rather than flying up in a too quickly in an unhealthy manner. Once the price action moved up toward resistance in a more healthy manner, it REMAINED at that resistance level for quite a while to DEFINE that resistance level before consolidating once again. This is normal behavior... I simply wanted to point out that this type of price action behavior occurs at times and we need to be aware of this in order to know where to place our 0.618 FIB (at defined resistance) in order to find our future 1.618 extension.

dmwardjr

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Here's an example of my Fibonacci technique in which it still worked out EVENTUALLY but we do have occurrences like this in 2016 on occasions:

dmwardjr

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The following is an example of HOW I use Fibonacci to determine the "next" potential price range target before consolidating into a higher trading range in a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic. NOTE: This example ASSUMES the current bottom of $7,714.70 remains the same. In case you are wondering, I went into the FIB "Settings" and "un-checked" every FIB level EXCEPT the 0.0, 0.618, 1.0 and 1.618. All other FIB levels were "hidden."

dmwardjr

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This is simply a look at my PRIMARY FIB's for you to see the significance the 0.786 PRIMARY FIB has played in history on BitStamp and where we are today in regard to the PRIMARY 0.786 FIB.

Here's an example of what I mean by a "Secondary" FIB if you see me mention it in the future. It's simply another FIB with coordinates placed between two Primary FIB levels.

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Quote from: exstasie on October 18, 2019, 03:17:19 PM

Quote from: dmwardjr on October 18, 2019, 08:41:42 AM

"Personal Test: Possible Future Price Action Scenarios." https://www.tradingview.com/chart/KNCBTC/lurrwXiz-Personal-Test-Possible-Future-Price-Action-Scenarios/

Based on the magnitude of the drop below the November 2018 lows (a bit under 10%), a $7K test or a hair below looks just about perfect.

Now the question is, is the December 2018 bottom the best model for the current price action?

Seeing some of the brutal wicks I've seen in Bitcoin, I'm not even ruling out a V-bottom off your 1.618 level in the low-mid $5,000s. That lines up with the 0.786 of the whole uptrend. I know xxxx123abcxxxx is looking at that area if the $7K area fails. https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/m.52783442

Yes, I can see that as a possibility with us already having done a 1,2,3,4,5 Wave up then potential A,B, with elongated C down to low to mid $5,000's. That would take me totally by surprise but certainly possible.

Topic: Wyckoff Mode Technical Analysis - page 23. (Read 12119 times)