Topic: Wyckoff Mode Technical Analysis - page 21. (Read 12119 times)

If you're an "Investor" and not a "Day Trader" or "Mid Term Trader" who seeks only to find as "safe" a time as possible to make entry for a long term investment, you are waiting for the White Energy in the 3-Week TF to pass the 50% level in the indicator called, "Godmode 3.1 Mod with LSMA."

We may go up and down "testing" support in the purple shaded area for a while before reversal to significant upward pressure some time around Thanksgiving.

Downward pressure does not necessarily equate to SERIOUS downward price movement.
The Phoenix ARI in the Monthly and 3-Week TF's tell me we are still very much in a bull market; despite what others claim.
The White Energy in the 3-Week TF is rising. We have a new 3-Week candle beginning in less than 8 hours. I want to see what the White Energy looks like in the 3-Week TF when it advances forward upon the completion of the current 3-Week Candle.
The White Energy in the 2-Week Candle has already crossed above the 50 percent level. Even though the Green Line in the 2-Week is currently angled out to the side rather than more straight up, we should not conclude it's wanting to turn down. Why? Because of what we see with several indicators in the 3-Week and the Monthly.
Since the White Energy has gone above the 50 percent level in the 2-Week TF, that leads me to believe we should not expect a significant drop in these lower time frames while the White Energy in the 2-Week TF has just gone above the 50 percent level. We can conclude if a drop were to come, we could refer to it as a "dip" and not a "dump" in the market. A dump (in my opinion) would need to be 15 percent or more in a relatively short time frame. A serious dump is 30 percent or more.
I've noticed the red volume bars continue to get shorter and shorter in the 12h TF with each release of "supply" (coins) into the market since July, 2019.
The Green Line and the White Energy in the 3-Day and 4-Day are at or below the 20 percent level. Which means it shouldn't be much longer before we see a prolonged period of upward pressure creep back into the market. It's now beginning to look more llke some time between November 19th and 21st for a potential "burst" in upward pressure.
The reason I'm saying, "burst" in upward pressure is because I think they prefer to catch retail traders by surprise with sudden upward moves that last over a short period of time then they stop applying the upward pressure for a more prolonged period of time. I think the psychology behind this method is to wait for sell orders to fill to their liking and "BAM" they buy up as many of those "healthy" sell orders as possible for the purpose of accumulation. Then the allow the market to slowly fall down over a prolonged period of time (applying little to no upward pressure) while putting in small buy orders during that prolonged period of downward pressure in an effort to patiently acquire more supply from miners needing to pay electric bill and from retail traders trying to successfully trade the market.
So, I'm expecting another "sudden" healthy move to the upside soon - possibly between November 19th and 21st. In the meantime, I'm expecting continued downward pressure with no significant move up or down.

Don't be surprised if sideways price movement is the order of the day for many days to come; with the occasional up-thrust over a short period of time and followed by long periods of boring price action on diminished volume. This may likely continue until the first or second week of January, 2020.

24h:


2-Day TF: 



4-Day TF:

Use Dollar Cost Averaging Technique.  Whatever capital you are willing to put into Bitcoin; divide that number by anything from 4 to 6 and be prepared to buy that many times until that capital you are willing to invest into Bitcoin is spent.  Be sure to take your Bitcoin OFF EXCHANGE shortly after you buy it each and every time.

Use Dollar Cost Averaging Technique with capital you are willing to put into Cardano by dividing that number by anything from 4 to 6 and be prepared to buy that many times until that capital you are willing to invest into Cardano is spent.  Be sure to take your Cardano OFF EXCHANGE shortly after you buy it each and every time.

Etc... Etc... Etc...

Right now is definitely the time to seriously consider accumulating coins.  If you divided your capital for each coin by six (6), you can consider buying that coin with one sixth probably within the next 24 hours.  Consider getting another sixth (6th) the next 24 hours after that.  Then hold your remaining four sixths of capital for the weekend to see what may occur.  I want to see what the indicators look like in the wee hours of Friday Morning (my time).  Which would be approximately 10 to 14 hours remaining in that Friday on Exchange Time.  I'm on Central Time in the United States.

Ultimately, I believe it's best to accumulate during this time and hold until we get at or near the top of this next bull run for the Bitcoin Block Halving Event in May, 2020.  Once the indicators look like we are getting at or near the top as we approach the Block Halving, you can consider transferring no more than 30 percent of your bags to the exchange(s) to sell that 30 percent at or near the top.  It's too risky [in todays political, geopolitical and economic environment] to transfer ALL of your cryptos to the exchange(s).  An opportune time for their to be a hack (inside job) on an exchange is when the price is at or near the top before consolidating.

Also, I'm concerned about the current health of the banking (FIAT) system.  If banks fail, any money inside the banks will be lost.  People using brokers; such as Traders Way; has their money (FIAT) in an account under Traders Way control.  However, Traders Way has no control of their customers (clients) money that's kept in the bank in Traders Way name.  Traders Way gives everyone the same bank account number to transfer FIAT to.  Traders Way simply makes note of how much of that money in that bank account has your name attached to it.  If the bank Traders Way is using ends up failing during a banking collapse, then Traders Way clients are out of money.  Traders Way may even have to lay off employees because they no longer have money in a bank to pay those employees.

Same thing goes with a crypto currency exchange...  If a crypto exchange gets FIAT wire transferred to a bank account in that crypto exchanges name, that crypto exchange simply keeps a record of how much of that FIAT is yours that was transferred into the crypto exchange bank account.  If the bank the crypto exchange uses ends up failing in a banking collapse, it's very possible all the FIAT the crypto exchange held in that bank is gone.  Which means the crypto exchange will likely NOT pay back everyone their FIAT because the bank lost that FIAT when it failed.  The crypto exchange will have no FIAT to pay its employees.  The crypto exchange may likely try to pay employees with crypto from the exchange to try to stay afloat.  The crypto exchange may also have to tell all its clients they have to take a hit on a certain percentage of their exchange balance in a similar way BitFinex had all its clients take a hit of 37.5 percent of their balance.  Meaning, each person had 37.5 percent less capital in crypto and FIAT than what they had before BitFinex was hacked.

If the banks fail, crypto exchanges will be affected greatly as well.  It would be just as if they were hacked.  However, this time it would be actual FIAT that was stolen from them.  By whom?  BANKS

This is WHY I'm saying from here on out do NOT keep more than 30% of your capital on exchange(s) during these very trying times politically, geopolitically and economically.  Once we get at or near the top of the pump to the bitcoin block halving, I want you to transfer back to the exchanges no more than 30% to sell at or near the top WHILE keeping the remaining 70 percent OFF EXCHANGE.  Be prepared to buy cryptos again at or near the bottom of the consolidation event in May or June, 2020... Possibly July, 2020... THEN transfer those additional coins you bought at a lower price OFF EXCHANGE.  Or transfer at least 70 percent of those new coins you just purchased OFF EXCHANGE; while keeping the remaining 30 percent on exchange to day trade if that's your cup of tea.

EDIT:  You saw how quickly the market shot up on October 25, 2019.  We could see a similar event in mid November up to $10,700 to $11,800 price range before consolidating again to a higher trading range than what we are trading currently.  So, definitely consider accumulating some within the next 24 hours with one sixth of your capital you intend to use towards each and every coin you wish to accumulate.  Then wait for us to see what the wee hours of Friday Morning looks like in the indicators to see if we should consider buying another sixth.  This will leave us four sixths remaining to determine what to do then; based on the indicators.

There's nothing worse than having bought too high if the market goes down substantially lower after buying.  However, if you split it up in a way so that your goal is to look at the AVERAGE price you got in REGARDLESS of what the price done after each buy in, it does not affect your emotions as bad if your goal is to get in at as good of an AVERAGE as possible.  This also means you may have one to three sixths remaining to get in on a breakout.  Which is fine...  That's to be considered part of the technique.  Because you would feel sick if you didn't have that available if the price had dropped lower for whatever reason.  Just consider that part of the technique.

Once you have your crypto bags OFF EXCHANGE and you're waiting for the price to pump up and consolidate to a higher trading range than what your AVERAGE buy-in was, you can feel less emotional in your trades if you choose to use up to 30 percent of your bag for swing trading every week or so or day trading.  It's your way of providing a "cushion" for yourself to avoid allowing trading to affect your emotions as much in the future; since you have a nice cushion OFF EXCHANGE.

Thank you David 
I'll buy something before the weekend. Do you think that's a good idea or should I wait?

"Alt-Coin Market as a Whole to Go Up Exponential in Jan. 2020." - https://www.tradingview.com/chart/TOTAL2/PdOkc9wG-Alt-Coin-Market-as-a-Whole-to-Go-Up-Exponential-in-Jan-2020/

We will have to see what price level we push up to once we have a reversal to upward pressure some time between November 14 and November 16, 2019.  The Daily (24h) and the 2-Day time frames both show a chance for reversal to upward pressure within the dates previously mentioned.  

I wish we had margin trading back in 2012 and 2013.  If we had, I would have a better idea of what may or may not occur when comparing to history.  The margin short contracts are approximately four times LESS than margin long contracts on Bitfinex at this writing.  However, I've chosen to ignore the HUGE spread between margin short and long contracts and focus my energy on the indicators; which was shared in my video publications.

Cheers,

David

I'm rather bearish short term and this worst case scenario is quite likely. We are seeing lower and lower highs since end-of-October pump to 10k. If we don't break that declining resistance, it could easily fall to 7500 as you mention.
However volume is quite low so big moves are possible and why not upward. I'm missing the 5 digits 😔

Part 2: Let's Look at Worse Possible Case Scenario.  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/n13eZ9st-Part-2-Let-s-Look-at-Worse-Possible-Case-Scenario/

Hi FOMA,

Sorry to hear you got stopped out.  However, I'm happy to hear you use a stop loss to keep losses small and gains large.  The following video is a near term outlook for BTCUSD...

"Part 1: $8,340 to $8,440 by Nov. 14; Then Reversal by Nov. 15" -    https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/g8pixykt-Part-1-8-340-to-8-440-by-Nov-14-Then-Reversal-by-Nov-15/

Hi FOMA,

Apologies for the delay. Had stuff going on with relatives (nephew getting married, my grandmother's youngest sister who used to baby sit me passed away, etc...). Here's a quick chart for you to ponder while I work on another video publication to post within the next 60 minutes.

any thoughts on that pump-and-dump yesterday? after we hit $9150 and closed strong, i figured the market had followed through on the daily bullish harami and a bullish reversal had occurred. now we're seeing new lows?!

needless to say, my stops were run and i'm licking my wounds now, not sure where we are headed next. was this a stop run before we move up, or something else?

Cardano - ADAUSD (Left); ADABTC (Middle) and BTCUSD (Right):  "Upward Pressure Continues with ADAUSD till end of November, 2019."  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ADAUSD/LeYOxFz9-Upward-Pressure-Continues-with-ADAUSD-till-end-of-November-2019/

I covered BTCUSD a little bit in the video publication linked above.  I mentioned upward pressure continuing for ADAUSD till possibly just after Thanksgiving with consolidation occurring most of December before our big push up into Official Altcoin Season the first or second week of January, 2020.  It's possible ADAUSD may go up a similar percentage as BTCUSD the remainder of November before having another period of consolidation in December.  Which means ADABTC would remain relatively flat (sideways) within a tight trading range if ADAUSD and BTCUSD went up a similar percentage.  Here's a visual of what Altcoin Season could look like for Cardano:

The following link provides examples of Different Wyckoff Accumulation Schematicss with their phases identified: https://i.imgur.com/D1fHpTN.jpg

First possible chance for upward pressure may be in 19 hours.  We have 7 hours remaining in the current 12h candle and the next 12h candle may be when downward pressure may begin to subside.  It's possible we may have to wait for the next 12 hour candle after that but it's looking like within the next 19 hours.

Hi Wexlike,

Apologies for the delayed reply.  I've been super busy and just now got around to checking for replies on bitcointalk.org.

We see we have come down to my Yellow 0.142 FIB's and the 50-MA in the Daily; which I believe will act as support.  This was mentioned in the second chart in post #385 (above).  I suppose we will find out soon enough.

Stay Awesome!

Daily (24h) TF:



12h TF:

I very much agree as well with the trading range that you two are expecting. Can't see much hype currently in the cryptosphere, but I am very surprised how well we manage to hold the 9ks while the mempool being almost empty(I did several 1sat/byte transactions a few days ago without any delay).

Waiting currently for a drop down to 8600$, but quite not sure anymore. End of year is always pretty bullish and I see more and more media picking up the stock to flow charts and therefore also the big halving next year.

Edit: There it was.

XRPUSD (Left); XRPBTC (Center) and BTCUSD (Right):  NEW VIDEO Publication; titled, "Whales Currently Preparing Bull Trap for XRPUSD & XRPBTC."  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/tY7bzuaQ-Whales-Currently-Preparing-Bull-Trap-for-XRPUSD-XRPBTC/

BTCUSD - NEW VIDEO Publication posted just now; titled, "YOU...SHALL NOT...PASS!!! (Not Close Below 20-MA in 3-Day TF)."  A couple of valuable tips in this video regarding Godmode indicator:  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/Ar1s8yop-YOU-SHALL-NOT-PASS-Not-Close-Below-20-MA-in-3-Day-TF/

Hi FOMA,

Good to see you and thanks for dropping by to comment!   

Yes, you described my thoughts well.  The reason I say we are still "bullish" in a sideways market within a trading range is to emphasize I do not believe we are still in a bear market and destined to fall even further to lower lows as some are still suggesting.

I'm about to make a pot of coffee and work on another video to provide further details as to WHY I'm likely not seeing us go below $8,500 or NOT to $16k before year end.

assuming the bull market is back, ranging into year end sounds reasonable. the parallels you're drawing to the mid 2012 and mid 2013 corrections seems spot on. after the bottom was in, we had multiple months of ranging below the yearly highs before things really kicked off again. it's unrealistic to expect the total opposite now---an exponential rise from here. bullish sideways though? that sounds about right.

thanks for sharing!