Topic: Wyckoff Mode Technical Analysis - page 22. (Read 12119 times)

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Here's a look at the 3-Day TF to show what trading range we likely stay within until the second week of January, 2020.



Expecting the Green Daily 50-MA to act as support.

Potential future price movement...

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Also, one thing about 2016 that MUST be taken into consideration is the following:

Bitstamp hack of January, 2016.

BitFinex hack of July, 2016.

The BitFinex hack of 2016 was much larger than the hack of Bitstamp in January, 2016.  In either case, they both affected the market considerably.  I believe bitcoin would have been off to the races in 2016 in a similar fashion as January, 2013 or August/September, 2013 if those hacks had not occurred.  My opinion of course.

Present day; we have not had a large significant hack of a major exchange.  We've had some small hacks that were alleviated but nothing major.  As long as we can avoid a MAJOR hack of a MAJOR exchange, we are off to the races soon in a similar way as January, 2013 and August/September, 2013 in my opinion.

i think market is going to price well in advance but still no
maybe after chinese new year because people in crypto tend to give that date lot of importance .. but my is only a guess not supported by any data

We are slowly working our way into the transition to Phase E once this Back-Up/Last Point of Support (BU/LPS) is completed.  We know the transition has officially begun once we see a "Sign of Strength" (SOS) above $13,880 on BitStamp.  However, this may not occur until the second week of January, 2020.

Thanks for sharing, DragonvsLinux.

Yes, the lower time frames; such as the 1h, are relevant if you are trading lower time frames.  Yes, that may be bullish for the near term but tells us little about the mid to long term.  High time frames are used to helps us get an idea of where we are and where we are going.  Mid time frames are used to help us get a better idea of how close we may be to getting where we are going in the high time frames.  Low time frames are used to help us with better entry and exit from what we see in Mid time frames.  Very low time frames are used for High to Low time frame scalping.  When scalping, do not misinterpret my use of the phrase "high time frame scalping."  See explanation below...

BELOW is only a PORTION of what I provided in a single post on page 13 of this thread:

High Long Term Trend Trading (HLTTT):  
Lowest and Highest TF's used in HLTTT:  Weekly is the LOWEST Time Frame (TF) used in HLTTT and Monthly is the HIGHEST TF in HLTTT.  
Common TF's used in HLTTT:  Weekly, 9-Day, 12-Day, 2-Week, 16-Day, 21-Day, 25-Day and Monthly.
Time Frame(s) is used as a Compass Majority of the Time in HLTTT:  9-Day Time Frame.
Number of trades implemented and how often are they implemented in HLTTT:  Two (2) trades every 3 to 4 years in crypto markets.  Can vary in other markets.
Capital Safeguards for HLTTT:  Once bought on exchange, immediately take off exchange and store in cold storage.  When selling, immediately buy gold and/or silver to hold till approximately a month or two before reversal from Distribution (Long Term Bear Trend) to Accumulation Phase before a long term bull trend begins.  NEVER leave large amounts of capital in anyone else's control other than yourself.  Which means I do not put large sums of capital in the bank, deposit box, etc...  I often sell my gold locally and on eBay.  When shipping gold, ALWAYS ship via UPS (United Parcel Service) WITH insurance and DIRECT signature required.
Percentage of capital used for HLTTT:  70 Percent.

Long Term Trend Trading (LTTT):
Lowest and Highest TF's used in LTTT:  12h is the LOWEST Time Frame (TF) used in LTTT and 2-Week is the HIGHEST TF used in LTTT.
Common TF's used in LTTT:  12h, 24h, 2-Day, 3-Day, 4-Day, 5-Day, 6-Day, Weekly, 9-Day, 12-Day and 2-Week.
Time Frame(s) is used as a Compass Majority of the Time in LTTT:  3-Day and 4-Day Time Frames.
Number of trades implemented and how often are they implemented in LTTT:  Two (2) trades every 2 to 12 weeks.  Depends heavily on what's seen in the indicators in those commonly used time frames.
Capital Safeguards for LTTT:  Once bought on exchange, immediately take off exchange and store in cold storage.  When selling immediately take tethers off exchange and store in cold storage until a few days before likelihood of reversal to upward pressure again.  For example, it currently looks like possible reversal around mid September.  Time to transfer Tethers back to exchange around September 9th.  That date could change as September 9th approaches based on what we are seeing in the indicators.
Percentage of capital used for LTTT:  15 Percent.

Mid Term Trend Trading (MTTT):
Lowest and Highest TF's used in MTTT:  45 minute (45m) is the LOWEST Time Frame (TF) used in MTTT and 12h is the HIGHEST TF used in MTTT.
Common TF's used in MTTT:  45m, 60m, 90m, 2h, 3h, 4h, 6h, 8h, 10h and 12h.
Time Frame(s) is used as a Compass Majority of the Time in MTTT:  4h and 6h Time Frames.
Number of trades implemented and how often are they implemented in MTTT:  Two (2) trades every 12 hours to 96 hours.  Depends heavily on what's seen in the indicators in those commonly used time frames.
Capital Safeguards for MTTT:  The remaining 10 percent I use for Mid Term Trend Trading and 5 percent used for High Time Frame Scalping and Low Time Frame Scalping is kept on exchange.  This way, 85 percent of my capital [Whether it's in crypto, precious metals or FIAT] is ALWAYS protected.  While the remaining 15 percent for Mid Term Trend Trading, High Time Frame Scalping and Low Time Frame Scalping is all that's at risk.
Percentage of capital used for MTTT:  10 Percent.

High Time Frame Scalping - (HTFS):  This type of trading is often done with margin trading because the price movement is often large enough to cover the trading fees under the right market conditions.
Lowest and Highest TF's used in HTFS:  5 minute (5m) is the LOWEST Time Frame (TF) used in HTFS and 3h is the HIGHEST TF used in HTFS.
Common TF's used in HTFS:  5m, 10m, 15m, 20m, 30m, 45m, 60m, 90m, 2h and 3h.
Time Frame(s) used as a Compass Majority of the Time in HTFS:  This can vary depending on the crypto pair traded and the market conditions seen in the indicators.  The compass usually falls somewhere between the 15m and 45m time frames based on the crypto pair traded and the market conditions seen in the indicators.
Number of trades implemented and how often are they implemented in HTFS:  Two (2) trades every 30 minutes to as high as 15 hours.  Depends heavily on what's seen in the indicators in those commonly used time frames.  It also depends on when my trailing stop is triggered.  Which is why my second trade to exit and/or reverse position could last as long as 15 hours before my trailing stop is finally triggered; my market sell is automatically implemented and I begin a new position to the reverse if the indicators are favorable.  Sometimes, I have to be patient and wait after a trailing stop is triggered to allow the indicators to show me a more obvious directional pressure signal before opening another position.
Capital Safeguards for HTFS:  The remaining 10 percent I use for Mid Term Trend Trading and 5 percent used for High Time Frame Scalping and Low Time Frame Scalping is kept on exchange.  This way, 85 percent of my capital [Whether it's in crypto, precious metals or FIAT] is ALWAYS protected.  While the remaining 15 percent for Mid Term Trend Trading, High Time Frame Scalping and Low Time Frame Scalping is all that's at risk.
Percentage of capital used for HTFS and/or LTFS:  5 Percent for HTFS and/or LTFS.

Low Time Frame Scalping - (LTFS): This type of trading is often done with very low leverage since the price movement may not move quite enough at times to justify paying the higher fees associated with higher leverage.
Lowest and Highest TF's used in LTFS:  1 minute (1m) is the LOWEST Time Frame (TF) used in LTFS and 30m is the HIGHEST TF used in LTFS.
Common TF's used in LTFS:  1m, 2m, 3m, 5m, 10m, 15m, 20m and 30m.
Time Frame(s) used as a Compass Majority of the Time in LTFS:  This can vary depending on the crypto pair traded and the market conditions seen in the indicators.  The compass usually falls somewhere between the 2m and 10m time frames based on the crypto pair traded and the market conditions seen in the indicators.
Number of trades implemented and how often are they implemented in LTFS:  Two (2) trades every 5 minutes to as high as 45 minutes.  Depends heavily on what's seen in the indicators in those commonly used time frames.  It also depends on when my trailing stop is triggered.  Which is why my second trade to exit and/or reverse position could last as long as 45 minutes before my trailing stop is finally triggered; my market sell is automatically implemented and I begin a new position to the reverse if the indicators are favorable.  Sometimes, I have to be patient and wait after a trailing stop is triggered to allow the indicators to show me a more obvious directional pressure signal before opening another position.
Capital Safeguards for LTFS:  The remaining 10 percent I use for Mid Term Trend Trading and 5 percent used for High Time Frame Scalping and/or Low Time Frame Scalping is kept on exchange.  This way, 85 percent of my capital [Whether it's in crypto, precious metals or FIAT] is ALWAYS protected.  While the remaining 15 percent for Mid Term Trend Trading, High Time Frame Scalping and Low Time Frame Scalping is all that's at risk.
Percentage of capital used for HTFS and/or LTFS:  5 Percent for HTFS and/or LTFS.

On the smaller time frames, that for some strange reason many don't find that relevant, the fib retracement is painting a very interesting picture at the moment.
We found support from the 0.5 (within $11 of precision) and now back above the 0.618. A break and close above the 0.768 will be extremely bullish in my opinion.

WOW.... We SLAMMED well through the upper boundary of the Bollinger Bands on the Daily and 12h.  The "Basis" is so low in those TF's, I see it as virtually impossible to fall back down that far.

We don't need to forget Bollinger Bands...  It could drop lower than $9,300 because of how over-bought we were when we went beyond the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band in the 2-Day TF.  I need to have a look to see what price the "Basis" is at in the Daily and the 12h.

similar thinking here! the daily structure looks quite like the december bottom. that yielded a .382 pullback followed by a slightly higher high---which matches up with a $9300 - $10800 range.

time to start playing the long side again!

BTCUSD - NEW VIDEO Publication posted 10 minutes ago; titled, "Potential Trading Range of $9,350 to $10,800 for a While."  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/rW9zdZXt-Potential-Trading-Range-of-9-450-to-10-800-for-a-While/

A look at the POTENTIAL trading range for a little while:

We already popped our head above the upper boundary of the Bollinger Bands in this 2-Day TF.  Which explains the reason for the current exhaustion (pullback) from $10,350.

I'm about to get a shower and head to my parents house.  Have a look at Godmode indicator in the Weekly compared to December, 2018:

Thanks for sharing your opinion, STT.

Based on what I'm seeing in the indicators, I have a hard time seeing us going back to months of downtrend.  My opinion of course.

If you haven't seen the following publication; titled, "50-Day MA Crossing 200-Day MA Does NOT Necessarily Mean DEATH" you may want to check it out.  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/gWrevEoz-50-Day-MA-Crossing-200-Day-MA-Does-NOT-Necessarily-Mean-DEATH/

Hi Exstasie,

Yup, I'm thrilled to see this fat daily candle as well.   

Yes, I'm currently leaning towards the Yellow at present.  However, if the Bank REPO's begin going exponential, we can see the White Scenario (Exponential) much sooner.  We'll have to keep an eye on it.

I'm about to get in the shower then head over to my parents house to spend some time with them today. Before I do, I wanted to provide another update with the 3-Day TF. I've adjusted the green box down just a bit to show where I'm anticipating our price action to be within different date ranges.

Daily Moving averages seem most relevant at this moment and they are in the same place for two common takes, 50 and 200.    How we handle that area is a good indication of where we go next



With the 200 day still rising, the big rise today or just now even is justified.  I dont know what the news is attached to cause this, always seems to be something not BTC itself that causes people to somehow think better of BTC.
  My simple take would be sellers got tired, exhaustion to the downside and enough speculators.    These gains are always possible and plenty waiting to take them at least until the common point of profit taking, 8900 matches a couple reasons to sell probably not a short term hold past that.   Its back to the downtrend in play for months.

"Price down, pick up" wins again eh?

My stink bids in the $6,000s missed of course, but no worries. I'm just thrilled to see this fat daily candle on the chart. Looking forward to dip buying season now!

Are you leaning towards the yellow scenario above then?

You may want to have a look at the following publication for ETHUSD/ETHBTC.  Because I also discuss BTCUSD in this VIDEO publication; titled, "Consider Move From ETH to BTC; ETHBTC to Go Down By 10/28/2019."
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ETHUSDT/F3iKjdUX-Consider-Move-From-ETH-to-BTC-ETHBTC-to-Go-Down-By-10-28-2019/