Closed half the position from 285 short. Now taking it easy a bit.
Hoping to short more if BTC falls below 208 or something like that.
GL and Happy trading!
Topic: Xiaoxiao's trading/forecast blog (Read 16427 times)
notify/watch not working for me..
Closed my long position @297 @ 289 with a loss of ~$8/btc. Started new short @ 291, because the current weak uptrend has been broken.
I like your analysis Xiaoxiao, brave putting all your trades public
Sadly if he had simply held his bitcoins in 2011 rather than flip-flopping in and out he would be retired.
Not the case, and thank you for judging me.
I like your analysis Xiaoxiao, brave putting all your trades public
Sadly if he had simply held his bitcoins in 2011 rather than flip-flopping in and out he would be retired.
I like your analysis Xiaoxiao, brave putting all your trades public
I think it was a good trade. I wasn't confident @280 or 285, but when it lingered around 298 last night, it was evident it will cross 300 quite soon.
Current trade: Just went long @ 297 BFX. Looking to close @ around $360-430. It is about to cross $300 any moment now on BFX. The recent FINRA news is quite bullish, short term is very bullish as well. Lots of cup and handles being formed on the charts.
You waited all the way until $297 to go long? What a missed opportunity, as soon as it passed the $285 area it was pretty obvious that the rest of today was going to be bullish. Best of luck for tomorrow.
Current trade: Just went long @ 297 BFX. Looking to close @ around $360-430. It is about to cross $300 any moment now on BFX. The recent FINRA news is quite bullish, short term is very bullish as well. Lots of cup and handles being formed on the charts.
Well done op, good calls. I also see bottom in or not far.
New position, closed short. 15 btc's long @ 280 ... we might be at a potential bottom right now.
Good one. I recently covered most of my shorts too in this decline. Risk/reward favors long from here
Me too. In my personal account, I covered and started long from 280. Our team account is controlled by algorithm, whose actions cannot be disclosed...
New position, closed short. 15 btc's long @ 280 ... we might be at a potential bottom right now.
Good one. I recently covered most of my shorts too in this decline. Risk/reward favors long from here
New position, closed short. 15 btc's long @ 280 ... we might be at a potential bottom right now.
Opened a new short position at 325. It's a bit weak of a position but seeing that there was no rebound at all when hitting almost 301, I think this time it will definitely test the previous ATH of 260-270.
I'm about 60% sure it will fall below 300 again but I am not so confident how long it will fall below 300, and I'm not very confident if it will fall below 265.
It's kind of appalling how many people have been trashing me since late December when I became bearish. As you can see, I've never been bearish prior to that. I think a lot of my intuition and analysis has been pretty spot on.
However, there is a chance that we may just stay around 300-400 for the next month or two before a shift upwards of downwards.
I'm about 60% sure it will fall below 300 again but I am not so confident how long it will fall below 300, and I'm not very confident if it will fall below 265.
It's kind of appalling how many people have been trashing me since late December when I became bearish. As you can see, I've never been bearish prior to that. I think a lot of my intuition and analysis has been pretty spot on.
However, there is a chance that we may just stay around 300-400 for the next month or two before a shift upwards of downwards.
To be fair, he warned us that he was completely full of shit in the very first post:
Glancing through the early posts, you get a sense that this thread is more to do with bragging about virtues and personality traits rather than any kind of substantive market discussion.
I like to trade creatively. I am not necessarily a technical trader, as that will not work. I normally follow a system but bitcoin is indeed different than the markets.
Glancing through the early posts, you get a sense that this thread is more to do with bragging about virtues and personality traits rather than any kind of substantive market discussion.
When I say I trade creative, it doesn't mean I ignore facts and charts.
To be fair, he warned us that he was completely full of shit in the very first post:
Glancing through the early posts, you get a sense that this thread is more to do with bragging about virtues and personality traits rather than any kind of substantive market discussion.
I like to trade creatively. I am not necessarily a technical trader, as that will not work. I normally follow a system but bitcoin is indeed different than the markets.
Glancing through the early posts, you get a sense that this thread is more to do with bragging about virtues and personality traits rather than any kind of substantive market discussion.
My bad. What got you so riled up then?
Seriously, for like a month now... people have been total dicks to me. Today, I said we might get a slight downdraft following the Black Friday buying (retailers will unload at least some and people won't buy as much once the sales pass)... not a crazy idea. Then, I get like pages of s--- about how I am a retarded newbie who doesn't understand the technology and how BTC is going to like a gazillion by the end of the week. I mean, the tenor on here has changed but also a lot of the more hardened cultists are pushing out actual discussion.
Like, my feeling, is... the technology is cool, the exchanges suck, there is a ton of manipulation a lot of which has to do with interests outside of BTC, and I'm interested in hearing people's ideas about where the price is going -- whether they agree or disagree with me. Not craziness, bullying, and referencing a single one-off trade (that random spike to $450... I had a short at around the mid-380s, closed it around $410 when I realized it was going to keep running, and recouped part of the loss on the way up and back down).
Like, at this point, I'm kind of agnostic on my feelings about the price outside the very short-term. I think the community is too hostile for new people to come in, demand is flagging, and there are some headwinds (centralized miners needing to dump to cover costs, retailers dumping at least some... even if it is really BitPay or Coinbase dumping excess over demand, and regulation). At the same time, the price has already dropped so much that I can't say I really think it will drop much more... just that it won't be going to $10000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000. A few years off, if this remains the primary crypto then society may catch up and you might get another explosion. This isn't a sure thing and not something happening in the next couple months -- that's a protracted event that requires a few things happen before hand... but it is possible.
But, even that aside, this is a speculation page. I'm speculating. Some days I speculate it will go up. Some days I speculate it will go down. But, instead, I just get lambasted by a bunch of hodl-tards (different than people just holding for the obvious reason of uncertainty and to avoid exchange fees -- which is smart) who accuse me of being a troll or something else. The community has just gotten really screwed up... it's turning back into an echo chamber. Frankly, I'm thinking about playing out a higher leveraged short just from these interactions -- maybe things are worse than I had realized.
We're all very puzzled why you seem to be the target of so much anger.
Every time the price goes down I am going to cheer. I don't even care if I take a long position at some point and the price goes down. I'll have the satisfaction of knowing some of the assholes on here lost money.
No, no... the price will only go down because the people who use this s--- are delusional f---tards who are ignorant, rude assholes to anybody new. Toss in the fact that it is monopoly money and a pump and dump penny stock and you all are seriously fucked.
Only the space titans have access to those. Magical, imaginary charts for magical, imaginary money purchased by people with magical, imaginary friends. Yes, f--- it... I'm not even going to be reasonable anymore. I'm just going to troll. You bastards have been way too hostile to me for having honest opposing views. F--- you all.
Sorry bud, no anal gorging, tonight... well, except for you and your boyfriend.
That was almost all today and all was responsive to harassment. People are a dick to me, I'll be a dick back.
Once you are known as a troll (like Xiaoxiao) no one will take you seriously anymore, even if you have a legit point because it will all be mixed in the cloud of troll responses that you have. If you want honest real discussion of price movement stop the trolling now and don't make personal remarks to people...just focus on the price forecasts etc. Once you start going buck wild troll like Xiaoxiao's "this is it bitcoin is done, ive sold all my coins, see you f-ckers in hell" then "oh hey guys im back and doing well, bitcoin price is gonna be x on x date because of x" then "hahahahahah bitcoin drop!" etc etc there is NO coming back from that. You either have to deal with people treating you like you always are BS'ing, make a new forum account or just give up on BTCTalk and /quit.
@Inca, I've been bearish since the double top and ceiling at around 1100-1200. Made numerous posts, took numerous short positions. Each and every post I made since then, I was called names and attacked up until now.
It's like I am being attacked by drug addicts because I said there will be withdrawal symptoms.
It's like I am being attacked by drug addicts because I said there will be withdrawal symptoms.
My bad. What got you so riled up then?
Seriously, for like a month now... people have been total dicks to me. Today, I said we might get a slight downdraft following the Black Friday buying (retailers will unload at least some and people won't buy as much once the sales pass)... not a crazy idea. Then, I get like pages of s--- about how I am a retarded newbie who doesn't understand the technology and how BTC is going to like a gazillion by the end of the week. I mean, the tenor on here has changed but also a lot of the more hardened cultists are pushing out actual discussion.
Like, my feeling, is... the technology is cool, the exchanges suck, there is a ton of manipulation a lot of which has to do with interests outside of BTC, and I'm interested in hearing people's ideas about where the price is going -- whether they agree or disagree with me. Not craziness, bullying, and referencing a single one-off trade (that random spike to $450... I had a short at around the mid-380s, closed it around $410 when I realized it was going to keep running, and recouped part of the loss on the way up and back down).
Like, at this point, I'm kind of agnostic on my feelings about the price outside the very short-term. I think the community is too hostile for new people to come in, demand is flagging, and there are some headwinds (centralized miners needing to dump to cover costs, retailers dumping at least some... even if it is really BitPay or Coinbase dumping excess over demand, and regulation). At the same time, the price has already dropped so much that I can't say I really think it will drop much more... just that it won't be going to $10000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000. A few years off, if this remains the primary crypto then society may catch up and you might get another explosion. This isn't a sure thing and not something happening in the next couple months -- that's a protracted event that requires a few things happen before hand... but it is possible.
But, even that aside, this is a speculation page. I'm speculating. Some days I speculate it will go up. Some days I speculate it will go down. But, instead, I just get lambasted by a bunch of hodl-tards (different than people just holding for the obvious reason of uncertainty and to avoid exchange fees -- which is smart) who accuse me of being a troll or something else. The community has just gotten really screwed up... it's turning back into an echo chamber. Frankly, I'm thinking about playing out a higher leveraged short just from these interactions -- maybe things are worse than I had realized.
It does get a bit heated on here, there is no doubt about that. I personally value your commentary on the site. Differing opinions are necessary and of course when everyone wants the price to rise being a bear is going to get you flack.
Trading short term movements of a volatile commodity is tiring, especially when the market - as you say - is so choppy and dare I say it heavily manipulated (it obviously is). I don't think anyone really is being deliberately hostile to you with a malicious intent. Your nickname is newbie so it that is why you get called a newbie!?
Most people try trading and leverage and some if they are good do well. Most don't (i didn't eventually) and that is reflected in the tensions on the wall thread from time to time. The grizzly holders like me have decided to just throw the darts at the wall in one throw and sit down and have a beer until they hit the dartboard. Don't forget lots of them bought in when bitcoin was far less expensive than now and can remain totally relaxed about the price even now in the 3xx's.
Yep things are uncertain but I wouldn't lose heart just yet. We are in that interesting phase of possibly technically ending a prolonged bear market and things may get suddenly far more exciting in the near future. Or not
Thanks for the thoughts, man.
My bad. What got you so riled up then?
Seriously, for like a month now... people have been total dicks to me. Today, I said we might get a slight downdraft following the Black Friday buying (retailers will unload at least some and people won't buy as much once the sales pass)... not a crazy idea. Then, I get like pages of s--- about how I am a retarded newbie who doesn't understand the technology and how BTC is going to like a gazillion by the end of the week. I mean, the tenor on here has changed but also a lot of the more hardened cultists are pushing out actual discussion.
Like, my feeling, is... the technology is cool, the exchanges suck, there is a ton of manipulation a lot of which has to do with interests outside of BTC, and I'm interested in hearing people's ideas about where the price is going -- whether they agree or disagree with me. Not craziness, bullying, and referencing a single one-off trade (that random spike to $450... I had a short at around the mid-380s, closed it around $410 when I realized it was going to keep running, and recouped part of the loss on the way up and back down).
Like, at this point, I'm kind of agnostic on my feelings about the price outside the very short-term. I think the community is too hostile for new people to come in, demand is flagging, and there are some headwinds (centralized miners needing to dump to cover costs, retailers dumping at least some... even if it is really BitPay or Coinbase dumping excess over demand, and regulation). At the same time, the price has already dropped so much that I can't say I really think it will drop much more... just that it won't be going to $10000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000. A few years off, if this remains the primary crypto then society may catch up and you might get another explosion. This isn't a sure thing and not something happening in the next couple months -- that's a protracted event that requires a few things happen before hand... but it is possible.
But, even that aside, this is a speculation page. I'm speculating. Some days I speculate it will go up. Some days I speculate it will go down. But, instead, I just get lambasted by a bunch of hodl-tards (different than people just holding for the obvious reason of uncertainty and to avoid exchange fees -- which is smart) who accuse me of being a troll or something else. The community has just gotten really screwed up... it's turning back into an echo chamber. Frankly, I'm thinking about playing out a higher leveraged short just from these interactions -- maybe things are worse than I had realized.
It does get a bit heated on here, there is no doubt about that. I personally value your commentary on the site. Differing opinions are necessary and of course when everyone wants the price to rise being a bear is going to get you flack.
Trading short term movements of a volatile commodity is tiring, especially when the market - as you say - is so choppy and dare I say it heavily manipulated (it obviously is). I don't think anyone really is being deliberately hostile to you with a malicious intent. Your nickname is newbie so it that is why you get called a newbie!?
Most people try trading and leverage and some if they are good do well. Most don't (i didn't eventually) and that is reflected in the tensions on the wall thread from time to time. The grizzly holders like me have decided to just throw the darts at the wall in one throw and sit down and have a beer until they hit the dartboard. Don't forget lots of them bought in when bitcoin was far less expensive than now and can remain totally relaxed about the price even now in the 3xx's.
Yep things are uncertain but I wouldn't lose heart just yet. We are in that interesting phase of possibly technically ending a prolonged bear market and things may get suddenly far more exciting in the near future. Or not
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