Topic: Xiaoxiao's trading/forecast blog - page 6. (Read 16430 times)

This is the smartest statement I've seen on this board.

My own guess is this, but it is projected way too far out and so many things can intervene and shake it up. I think we'll get some upwards price activity not for reason of good news, but because of a changing market infrastructure -- notably, more leveraging and more Wall Street bots. I think we are all going to be taken for a ride really soon and if you catch the peak you'll be sitting pretty but if you are a day late then you'll (not as in you, specifically, but as in people generally) be living out of a cardboard box.

I expect July 20 modest price movement for those behind the game trying to enter cheap, then late July rally that speeds up and then takes on a life of its own as disillusioned youth start to gamble with their financial aid dollars and then... the crash... cascading margin calls on overleveraged traders PLUS a big exchange falling. Hopefully I am wrong because that would be an existential crisis.

I know what you mean, but what I meant was that all these crap coins sure makes bitcoin look good which is bullish, it is a sign people are into cryptos, but it may also cause inflation.

When you say things like this it makes me not take your predictions seriously. In fact, overall your logic seems to be fairly poorly educated. I think you need to study more factors before sharing your predictions.

To be honest, I am contemplating shorting.  And the reason is because all this great news right now is a FRUITION of this past bubble, and a lot of inexperienced people are seeing it the other way around or seeing these new small good news to be causing a new bubble.  I'm still not sure what happened this last bubble, but it may have to do with some shady things going on with the chinese exchanges.  Market manipulation in China is unbelievable.

What's worrying about all the alts? The more that arrive and implode, the more solid BTC seems. It's quickly leaving every single one behind in terms of real world adoption. If there had been this quantity of them in 2010/11 then it would've been more of a concern. 

As for Shit Coin, well... https://bitcointalksearch.org/topic/ann-new-coin-launch-shit-coin-sht-307419

What is your forecast for August ?

Are my predictions coming to fruition?  I don't know.

The greatest bubble according to Money Never Sleeps is the "cambrian explosion".  Is bitcoin just another mega version of the tulips?  Perhaps.  The thing that worries me is all these new cryto's coming out.  Dogecoin, soccercoin, sexcoin... come on?  next thing you know there will be something called shitcoin

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O3sexvJM5Go
i googled xiaoxiao

I didn't really think about this a few days ago and my trading position is the opposite of this scenario (since I am waiting for a transaction to clear -- I know, total fail), but I think we are going to hit a bottom next week -- either 540 or 400. The thought is pretty basic, I am starting to get the vibe that the bids were low, and orchestrated as such, on the auction. Since the bidders were leaked there was a greater possibility for collusion and because this is an unregulated market collusion could occur with legal ramification. Therefore, if the whales were smart then the winning price would be low -- about $400 -- because they know this would cause a panic to the point that the support at $540 would probably give way and then all of the whales could each swoop in and buy a significant portion of the market at a discount. Since OP is an online poker player -- I'd say this is the scenario where you are playing cards online and two of the players at your table are sitting in the same room and flashing each other their cards so that they can make a coordinated play on everybody else at the table. I should have been way more pessimistic in my thinking and now I am hung up waiting until Thursday for my transaction to clear.

In a nutshell, I am bullish in even the intermediate term and definitely the long-term so it isn't a big deal, but I really wish I could sell right now before the potential wave slides through so that I could pick up more coins at a discount... I think this might be the best idea for others. (Note, I could be terribly off base on this thought).

this, +1

I don't get it.  What do u mean?

Those were actually live action movies

however he grew up now and is looking for new challenges, currently one of these challenges is making profit at the bitcoin market.

Ontopic:

I agree with this weeks prediction. While i think a bubble is coming soon, i don't expect it to be this soon (as in next week).

There used to be some really cool stick-figure animations named after you.

6/28

this week's forecast-

same as last week.... horizantal... i definitely don't see much of a rise (maybe a bubble out of nowhere), if anything a drop and if it drops below the support, it could hit ATL since the double top at ~1150.

Trades- none, once again.

hi - could balloon to 900 since everyone is waiting for a bubble but so unlikely

low- more likely to hit a 400 low than 900 hi

but the most likely scenario is horizantal.

All very well could be for nothing, at least in the short term. Business is ahead of public adoption by a large margin.

Here is a test for you, the next 10 people you meet that don't have a life in technology, ask them when they plan to buy Bitcoin and why. My guess is you will go zero for 10. I would not be surprised if it is zero out of 100.

Mass adoption is at least 3 or 4 bubbles away

I meant for the short term next 3-6 months, and like I said, I am going out on a limb.  I was a former poker player, so I can take a loss with not much of a problem.  I think the next bubble would depend upon mass adoption.  With the state of bitcoin right now and its concerns, it is not fit for mass adoption at all. 

edit- but than again bubbles are a sign of its potential, so who knows.

sounds like 13 months ago you became a geek

So the tens of millions of infrastructure investment and the countless thousands of hours of legal dicking around creating ETFs, regulations and exchanges are all for nothing? Hmm...

I'm not geek at all and I adopted Bitcoin 13 months ago